UK local by-elections, 2019

[ObserverIE]

Another year arrives, Brexalypse approaches (or does it?), and we have another Holy Word, beginning the year from the Senescent South Coast.

Rother, St Marks

Ind 60.3 (+23.7)
Con 31.4 (-)
Lab 4.8 (-6.2)
UKIP 3.5 (-17.5)

East Sussex, Bexhill West

Ind 51.9 (+1.5)
Con 31.6 (-1.7)
Lib Dem 7.7 (+2.1)
Lab 3.3 (-3.8)
Green 3.2 (+3.2)
UKIP 2.4 (-1.2)

[ObserverIE]

Our next Holy Word takes us to wealthy exurban Surrey.

Surrey, Warlingham

Con 48.1 (-8.2)
Lib Dem 39.7 (+10.8)
UKIP 7.1 (-2.9)
Lab 5.1 (+0.3)

[ObserverIE]

A more urban and variegated Holy Word this week.

Wokingham, Evendons

Lib Dem 63.1 (+16.4)
Con 31.9 (-8.8)
Lab 5.0 (-7.5)

Buckinghamshire, Totteridge and Bowerdean

Lab 40.8 (+15.5)
East Wycombe Ind 27.8 (-12.1)
Lib Dem 21.2 (+6.4)
Con 10.2 (-9.8)

Bradford, Bolton and Undercliffe

Lib Dem 51.3 (+9.0)
Lab 34.1 (-10.6)
Con 12.4 (+2.4)
Green 2.2 (-0.8)

Lambeth, Thornton

Lab 44.7 (-19.1)
Lib Dem 32.8 (+23.5)
Green 9.7 (-1.2)
Con 9.6 (-6.5)
WEP 1.8 (+1.8)
UKIP 1.4 (+1.4)

Tower Hamlets, Shadwell

Aspire 34.8 (+16.1)
Lab 31.5 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 16.7 (+12.7)
Con 6.4 (+2.2)
Green 4.3 (+0.1)
Ind 4.1 (-2.3)
WEP 2.2 (+2.2)

Tower Hamlets, Lansbury

Lab 40.8 (-0.3)
Aspire 31.3 (+8.7)
Lib Dem 9.0 (+0.3)
UKIP 5.5 (+5.5)
Con 5.5 (-1.8)
Green 5.2 (-2.3)
House 2.8 (+2.8)

Lab gain Totteridge and Bowerdean from East Wycombe Ind
Lib Dem gain Bolton and Undercliffe from Lab
Aspire gain Shadwell from Lab

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

After my submission deadline for last week, the Lib Dem candidate in Shadwell was dropped by the party over that antisemitic conspiracy theory video, while the Labour candidate in Totteridge and Bowerdean was arrested over electoral fraud allegations.  Since the Labour candidate in Totteridge and Bowerdean subsequently won this is going on Election Petition Watch.

[ObserverIE]

A much more staid and sedate (as far as we know) Holy Word from exurban south Wales here.

Vale of Glamorgan, Rhoose

Con 61.5 (+19.0)
Lab 19.9 (-3.2)
Ind 18.6 (-8.4)

[ObserverIE]

A Holy Word migrating from south Wales to small-town Northamptonshire here.

Cardiff, Ely

PC 43.1 (+17.6)
Lab 40.4 (-8.6)
Con 14.1 (-3.9)
Lib Dem 2.4 (-2.9)

Northamptonshire, Oundle

Con 51.3 (-14.2)
Lib Dem 35.1 (+24.6)
Lab 11.1 (-12.9)
UKIP 2.5 (+2.5)

PC gain Ely from Lab

[ObserverIE]

The Holy Word this week comes from a Conservative and irradiated part of a remain-voting Labour island in the south-west.

Stroud, Berkeley Vale

Con 49.8 (+2.3)
Lab 34.4 (+3.6)
Lib Dem 11.6 (-0.9)
Green 4.1 (-5.1)

[Silent Hunter]

A Residents' Councillor in Havering has died

[ObserverIE]

The Holy Word moves to rural Buckinghamshire tonight.

Aylesbury Vale, Haddenham and Stone

Green 50.8 (+36.7)
Con 32.8 (-6.3)
Lib Dem 14.0 (-0.1)
Lab 2.5 (+2.5)

Green gain Haddenham and Stone from Con

[ObserverIE]

A geographically-mixed Holy Word here.

Durham, Wingate

Lab 64.1 (-9.6)
Lib Dem 22.8 (+20.1)
NEP 10.3 (+0.3)
FB 2.8 (+2.8)

Croydon, Norbury and Pollards Hill

Lab 64.5 (-3.2)
Con 15.2 (-7.0)
Ind O'Grady 7.6
Green 4.3 (-5.9)
Ind Roznerska 3.4
Lib Dem 3.3 (+3.3)
UKIP 1.9 (+1.9)

Southampton, Coxford

Lab 26.3 (-1.9)
Con 20.8 (+4.3)
Lib Dem 17.7 (+14.7)
Soc Alt 14.5 (+14.5)
Int So'ton 7.0 (+7.0)
Ind Lambert 6.8 (+4.4)
UKIP 4.8 (+4.8)
Green 2.1 (-0.9)

Lab gain Coxford from Ind

[ObserverIE]

A week late and a dollar short, last week's dispatches from Europe's greatest banana monarchy are here.

Durham, Esh and Witton Gilbert

Lib Dem 63.2 (+8.4)
Lab 20.7 (-7.3)
Ind 8.8
Con 7.3 (-10.0)

Basildon, Vange

Lab 51.3 (+10.1)
Con 48.7 (+27.2)

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Holditch and Chesterton

Ind 40.3 (+22.3)
Lab 38.3 (-14.7)
UKIP 12.3 (+3.6)
Con 7.0 (-8.0)
SDP 2.0 (+2.0)

Southend-on-Sea, Milton

Lab 49.9 (-0.8)
Con 31.6 (-0.7)
Lib Dem 13.1 (+8.6)
FB 5.3 (+5.3)

Thurrock, Aveley and Uplands

Con 43.6 (+16.4)
Thurrock Ind 31.1 (-12.1)
Lab 22.2 (-1.5)
Lib Dem 3.1 (+3.1)

Kensington and Chelsea, Dalgarno

Lab 55.3 (-15.5)
Con 23.5 (+2.4)
Lib Dem 11.2 (+3.0)
UKIP 5.2 (+5.2)
Green 4.7 (+4.7)

Ind gain Holditch and Chesterton from Lab
Con gain Aveley and Uplands from Thurrock Ind

[ObserverIE]

From last week, a trip over the border and a visit to a piece of London suburbia that is Lib Dem but not the bobo-land one might expect from such a place: here.

Clackmannanshire, Central

SNP 40.9 (+2.6)
Lab 31.9 (-8.0)
Con 19.8 (+3.2)
UKIP 3.3 (+3.3)
Green 2.5 (-2.7)
Lib Dem 1.7 (+1.7)

SNP	865	872	888	902	933
Lab	675	684	696	702	814
Con	419	423	433	447
UKIP	69	70	74
Green	53	60
Lib Dem	36

Sutton, Wallington North

Lib Dem 38.2 (-8.8)
Con 26.1 (-)
Ind 14.0
Lab 11.1 (-5.1)
Green 6.1 (-1.7)
UKIP 3.8 (+0.9)
CPA 0.6 (+0.6)

SNP hold Clackmannanshire Central

[ObserverIE]

This week we tiptoe through the turnips in East Anglia: here.

Norfolk, Wroxham

Con 55.7 (-3.3)
Lib Dem 23.9 (+4.0)
Green 10.5 (+5.0)
Lab 9.9 (-0.8)

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word from April 11th here

Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood

Lib Dem 37.5 (-11.0)
Lab 27.4 (-6.8)
BPI 16.9 (+16.9)
Con 12.6 (-0.4)
Green 5.6 (+1.3)

Lambeth, Thornton (changes in italics since Feb 2019 by-election)

Lab 41.5 (-22.3) (-3.2)
Lib Dem 40.7 (+31.4) (+7.9)
Green 7.1 (-3.8) (-2.6)
Con 6.9 (-9.2) (-2.7)
WEP 2.2 (+2.2) (+0.8)
UKIP 1.6 (+1.6) (-0.2)

Edinburgh, Leith Walk

SNP 35.7 (+1.3)
Green 25.5 (+5.9)
Lab 15.5 (-6.9)
Con 10.7 (-3.7)
Lib Dem 8.6 (+4.9)
Ind Illingworth 1.5
UKIP 1.2 (+1.2)
Soc Lab 0.8 (-0.1)
Ind Scott 0.2
FB 0.2 (+0.2)
Lbt 0.2

SNP	2596	2598	2598	2598	2612	2616	2630	2721	2763	3021
Green	1855	1856	1856	1856	1865	1869	1904	2093	2223	2765
Lab	1123	1124	1124	1126	1136	1140	1157	1320	1497
Con	777	777	779	781	784	811	825	912
Lib Dem	623	624	624	626	628	633	652
Ind I	110	112	112	122	126	143
UKIP	85	88	97	97	98
Soc Lab	56	56	56	56
Ind S	16	16	16
FB	14	14
Lbt	12

Merthyr Tydfil, Cyfarthfa

Ind Jones 60.7
Lab 23.3 (-4.5)
Ind Griffiths 12.7
Con 3.4 (+3.4)

Lib Dem win Rosehill with Burnley Wood held by BPI elected as Lib Dem
SNP gain Leith Walk from Lab
Ind win Cyfarthfa held by Ind

[ObserverIE]

The final pre-May installment of the Holy Word comes from Sibboleth Country.

Shropshire, Belle Vue

Lab 47.1 (+4.1)
Lib Dem 31.5 (+3.2)
Con 11.9 (-12.3)
Green 5.1 (+0.6)
UKIP 4.5 (+4.5)

[jaichind]

Where is the May 2nd 2019 UK local election thread ?

[ObserverIE]

Apologies for the non-appearance of this over the last few weeks, but pressure of work meant things kept getting held over. I'll try to get up to date over the next few days.

First, those by-elections held together with the local elections on May 2nd.

Craven, Upper Wharfedale

Con 63.3 (-9.8)
Green 23.4 (+23.4)
Lib Dem 7.8 (+7.8)
Lab 5.5 (-21.4)

Dundee, North East

SNP 46.9 (-6.8)
Lab 38.1 (+11.1)
Con 8.4 (-0.7)
SACC/TUSC 2.8 (+1.4)
Green 2.4 (+0.8)
Citizens 1.4 (+1.4)

SNP	1507	1510	1534	1555	1576
Lab	1224	1229	1248	1284	1388
Con	271	274	280	290
TUSC	91	109	112
Green	77	82
Citizens	45

Durham, Shildon and Dene Valley

Lib Dem 42.5 (+23.0)
Lab 23.0 (-7.0)
UKIP 15.4 (+2.7)
Ind 14.0 (-8.0)
Con 5.1 (-10.8)

Durham, Spennymoor

Ind Geldard 18.7
Lab 16.1 (-1.5)
Lib Dem 14.3 (-3.5)
Ind McAloon 13.7
Ind Molloy 12.7 (-4.0)
UKIP 10.8 (+3.6)
Spenn Ind 8.5 (-19.0)
Con 5.2 (-4.4)

Lewisham, Evelyn

Lab 52.7 (-3.4)
Green 22.0 (+5.1)
Con 7.2 (-1.3)
Lib Dem 6.3 (-2.2)
PBP 4.7 (-4.0)
UKIP 4.4 (+4.4)
WEP 2.2 (+2.2)
D&V 0.4 (+0.4)

Lewisham, Whitefoot

Lab 53.0 (-12.3)
Lib Dem 20.7 (+12.3)
Con 12.6 (-3.4)
PBP 8.8 (+8.8)
CPA 2.1 (+2.1)
WEP 1.7 (+1.7)
D&V 1.1 (+1.1)

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Maer and Whitmore

Con 86.6 (-3.1)
Lib Dem 13.4 (+13.4)

Northumberland, Holywell

Lab 57.6 (+7.4)
Con 32.1 (-7.2)
Lib Dem 10.3 (+10.3)

Cambridgeshire, Trumpington

Lib Dem 46.7 (+7.7)
Lab 26.0 (-3.6)
Con 15.9 (-8.5)
Green 11.4 (+4.3)

Gloucestershire, Churchdown

Lib Dem 47.8 (-2.7)
Con 27.6 (-12.8)
Lab 8.9 (+8.9)
Green 8.5 (+8.5)
UKIP 7.2 (+7.2)

Kent, Northfleet and Gravesend West

Lab 43.5 (-0.5)
Con 28.1 (-10.8)
UKIP 17.2 (+7.9)
Green 7.3 (+3.8)
Lib Dem 3.9 (-0.6)

Kent, Sittingbourne North

Swale Ind 35.7 (+35.7)
Lab 32.0 (+0.2)
Con 25.4 (-15.2)
Lib Dem 6.8 (-2.0)

Surrey, Haslemere

Ind 65.2
Con 28.4 (-24.3)
Lab 6.4 (+0.7)

West Sussex, Northgate and West Green

Lab 48.9 (-0.5)
Con 31.7 (-3.5)
Lib Dem 10.1 (+5.1)
Green 9.3 (+5.2)

SNP gain North East from Lab
Lib Dem gain Shildon and Dene Valley from Lab
Ind gain Spennymoor from Spennymoor Ind
Lib Dem win Trumpington held by Ind elected as Lib Dem
Swale Ind gain Sittingbourne North from Con
Ind gain Haslemere from Con

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Trumpington

Not good!

[Tintrlvr]

Durham, Spennymoor

Ind Geldard 18.7
Lab 16.1 (-1.5)
Lib Dem 14.3 (-3.5)
Ind McAloon 13.7
Ind Molloy 12.7 (-4.0)
UKIP 10.8 (+3.6)
Spenn Ind 8.5 (-19.0)
Con 5.2 (-4.4)

That Spennymoor result is absurd! Do we know what the lowest winning percentage in a UK local election is? Surely that one has to come close.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word for May 9th is here.

Havering, Cranham

Res Assoc 68.4 (+7.6)
Green 8.8 (+1.6)
Con 7.3 (-9.9)
Lab 6.2 (-2.5)
UKIP 5.9 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 3.4 (+3.4)

East Lothian, Haddington and Lammermuir

Con 35.0 (+6.0)
SNP 29.5 (+3.4)
Lab 21.5 (-12.2)
Lib Dem 12.2 (+4.9)
UKIP 1.7 (+1.7)

Con	2212	2249	2428	2759
SNP	1866	1874	2044	2469
Lab	1359	1370	1589
Lib Dem	774	782
UKIP	108

Con hold Haddington and Lammermuir

[ObserverIE]

Nothing on May 16th so we move to May 23rd here.

Tendring, St Osyth

Ind 58.3 (856, 850)
Con 29.6 (437, 430)
Lab 12.1 (177)

Neath Port Talbot, Resolven

Ind 59.7
Lab 25.0 (-15.9)
PC 10.3 (-13.7)
Con 2.9 (+2.9)
Lib Dem 2.0 (+2.0)

Ind gain Resolven from Lab

[ObserverIE]

Finally, one by-election on May 30th here.

Gosport, Brockhurst

Lib Dem 51.5 (+10.3)
Con 22.6 (-12.2)
BUSP 17.4 (+17.4)
Lab 8.4 (-4.7)

[Tintrlvr]

Finally, one by-election on May 30th here.

Gosport, Brockhurst

Lib Dem 51.5 (+10.3)
Con 22.6 (-12.2)
BUSP 17.4 (+17.4)
Lab 8.4 (-4.7)

What on earth was the British Union & Sovereignty Party doing standing here, letting alone garnering a respectable result? From what I can tell on Wikipedia, it's a minor Scottish unionist party.

[beesley]

Finally, one by-election on May 30th here.

Gosport, Brockhurst

Lib Dem 51.5 (+10.3)
Con 22.6 (-12.2)
BUSP 17.4 (+17.4)
Lab 8.4 (-4.7)

What on earth was the British Union & Sovereignty Party doing standing here, letting alone garnering a respectable result? From what I can tell on Wikipedia, it's a minor Scottish unionist party.

Who knows, but there are two potential explanations: one is that he did better than expected because of Brexit Party hype (name seems Brexity) in leave-voting Gosport, or that he is well known enough locally. The latter seems more likely on paper.


https://twitter.com/HfdsCouncil/status/1136920237427896320

https://twitter.com/Kishan_Devani/status/1136764144684847111

[CumbrianLefty]

Who knows, but there are two potential explanations: one is that he did better than expected because of Brexit Party hype (name seems Brexity) in leave-voting Gosport, or that he is well known enough locally. The latter seems more likely on paper.

Said candidate stood for the Tories in this ward last year, so mostly the latter.