Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[Lechasseur]

There are whispers that Rinne might go for a SDP+Centre+Greens+Left+SPP coalition after all, instead of the SDP+NCP+Greens+SPP that many were expecting. Of course he could just be signalling to NCP that they are not his only option and thus can't expect to get everything they want. He will make an announcement on tuesday.

Would you rather see the Centre Party or the NCP in government?

[Helsinkian]

Would you rather see the Centre Party or the NCP in government?

It might be good for the NCP to be in opposition for a change; maybe that would bring them closer to the Finns Party.

[Lechasseur]

Would you rather see the Centre Party or the NCP in government?

It might be good for the NCP to be in opposition for a change; maybe that would bring them closer to the Finns Party.

Aren't the NCP like the most socially liberal and culturally progressive (along with being the most-pro immigration) of the major Finnish parties though?

[Helsinkian]

Would you rather see the Centre Party or the NCP in government?

It might be good for the NCP to be in opposition for a change; maybe that would bring them closer to the Finns Party.

Aren't the NCP like the most socially liberal and culturally progressive (along with being the most-pro immigration) of the major Finnish parties though?

They are now, but there are still some conservatives left who might want to reorientate the party toward what it used to be. That would first require a change of leadership, though.

[Ethelberth]

Would you rather see the Centre Party or the NCP in government?

It might be good for the NCP to be in opposition for a change; maybe that would bring them closer to the Finns Party.

Aren't the NCP like the most socially liberal and culturally progressive (along with being the most-pro immigration) of the major Finnish parties though?

They are now, but there are still some conservatives left who might want to reorientate the party toward what it used to be. That would first require a change of leadership, though.

You mean, what it used to be in fifties. Have you lived in fifties.

[Helsinkian]

You mean, what it used to be in fifties. Have you lived in fifties.

Do Wille Rydman, Susanna Koski or Atte Kaleva live in the fifties? All would be good fits in the Finns Party but have nevertheless remained in NCP for one reason or another.

Eija-Riitta Korhola, former NCP MEP, criticized the party for tacking too close to the Greens, resulting in NCP losing voters to PS.

Jukka Kopra, NCP MP, said that a coalition of SDP, NCP and PS should be considered.

Terhi Koulumies, NCP MP, said that the party needs to maintain relations with PS.

In January of this year a poll of NCP influencers (incl. MPs, members of the party board, local leaders) found that 61% believed that NCP could go to coalition with PS.

While this doesn't mean that all of them agree with PS policies, these statements are nevertheless miles apart from Petteri Orpo's "our values do not allow us to work with Halla-aho's Finns Party" mantra of 2017.

[Helsinkian]

First opinion poll conducted after the election (HS/Kantar TNS):

Finns Party 18.7%
NCP 17.1%
SDP 16.9%
Greens 12.8%
Centre 12.7%
Left 8.3%
SPP 4.4%
CD 4.1%
Movement Now 2.5%
Blue 0.5%
Others 2%

The last time PS was polling first was shortly after the 2011 election.

I'd still expect NCP to finish first in the European Parliament election, as the low turnout favours them (also, Movement Now is not standing in the EP election, which benefits NCP).

[Lechasseur]

Would you rather see the Centre Party or the NCP in government?

It might be good for the NCP to be in opposition for a change; maybe that would bring them closer to the Finns Party.

Aren't the NCP like the most socially liberal and culturally progressive (along with being the most-pro immigration) of the major Finnish parties though?

They are now, but there are still some conservatives left who might want to reorientate the party toward what it used to be. That would first require a change of leadership, though.

When was it like that? Haven't they been the most liberal party since at least the 1990s or so?

[Helsinkian]

When was it like that? Haven't they been the most liberal party since at least the 1990s or so?

I'd be satisfied with them going back even to the 1980s situation...

[Lechasseur]

When was it like that? Haven't they been the most liberal party since at least the 1990s or so?

I'd be satisfied with them going back even to the 1980s situation...

I'm not an expert on Finnish politics, but the impression I generally had was that the NCP was the most conservative party until about 1990 more or less, when the Centre Party became the more conservative of the two parties, and after that the NCP turned into the fiscon/soclib party, would that be correct? And I'd assume that would be explained by the fact that unlike in other countries, the NCP was a city party and thus went liberal like the cities?

[Ethelberth]

The social conservatives of NCP left the party largely in early 1970ies (to KD). SMP was also rather socially conservative, but actually developement aid friendly (because that was a possibility to critisize SDP-KESK governments.  In eighties there were some cultural wars, but NCP did not have any role in them (unlike sixties). NCP was interested in modernizing Finnish economy, not on social issues.

[Helsinkian]

We need to make a distinction between the politicians of the party and its base. A good part of the NCP base continues to be conservative, even when the party leadership is not. Part of that is down to ancestral voting patterns: if your father and grandfather voted for NCP, you'll continue to support it out of tradition (a recent study found that this effect was strongest with the NCP of all parties). And there are some highly educated NCP voters who agree with a lot of what the Finns Party says about immigration policy but still can't bring themselves to vote for PS because of the party's reputation. They will then vote for the likes of Wille Rydman, that is, members of NCP's conservative wing.

Interestingly, the NCP leadership has screwed over its base several times, but still the base sticks by it. The party congress theoretically has the highest authority within the party, but when the party congress voted to oppose mandatory Swedish teaching in schools (during Katainen's leadership) it was ignored by the party leaders, and the same thing happened when the party congress voted to oppose the Treaty of Ottawa (prohibition of landmines).

[Helsinkian]

Here's how the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat places the parties based on their MPs' answers to its electoral compass. It has an economic left–right axis and a social issues conservative–liberal axis. The arrows indicate movement compared to 2015. The numbers indicate the number of MPs from the party who answered the compass.

[Helsinkian]

Rinne has officially announced that he intends to form a coalition consisting of SDP, Centre Party, Greens, Left Alliance and the Swedish People's Party. They will now begin formal coalition negotiations which will last at least three weeks and maybe longer. The five parties have 117 seats in the parliament.

When Rinne held informal talks with the other party heads in the past few days he talked about an hour with most of them but five hours with NCP's Orpo. Some thought that would mean they would form a coalition but apparently it meant that NCP was being difficult with their demands on the economy, austerity.

Prior to agreeing to the coalition, the Centre Party had asked the party executive, the party board and the parliamentary group for their opinion. 80% of the respondents had favoured going into government.

[bigic]

I guess Centre thought they lost votes because they were percieved as too right-wing, so they could recover by shifting towards the left and being in a left-leaning government?

As for SDP, this is probably the best option from their perspective.

[Helsinkian]

I guess Centre thought they lost votes because they were percieved as too right-wing, so they could recover by shifting towards the left and being in a left-leaning government?

Yes. The right-wing turn was personified in PM Sipilä and the transportation minister Anne Berner who will be remembered for the (unpopular) deregulation of the taxi business. Sipilä will probably become the parliament's Speaker; that allows him an honourable exit from active politicking (since the Speaker is expected to be neutral).

Berner is returning to the private sector. Berner only joined the party just prior to the 2015 election, and after she had reneged on her commitment to stand as an NCP candidate – she calculated that Centre would be the bigger party in 2015 and thus made her party choice with little ideological commitment. Many veteran Centre politicians were bitter when Berner was chosen to be minister as a first term MP.

[Helsinkian]

Are there any studies that have (or are going to) show the general support for the parties among different demographics (like working class voters)?

I couldn't find anything recent. In a 2013 poll SDP and Finns Party were tied with working class voters at around 25%.

To return to this theme, the first YLE poll after the election has Finns Party as overall number one with 18.8%; among working-class voters PS is also number one with 33.2%

[Helsinkian]

The five parties have come to an agreement on the government coalition. The 19 ministerial portfolios will be divided in this way:

Social Democrats

• Prime Minister
• Transportation
• Labour
• Basic services
• Municipalities
• International trade and development
• Europe

Centre Party

• Finance
• Economic affairs
• Science and culture
• Defence
• Agriculture

Greens

• Foreign affairs
• Interior
• Environment

Left Alliance

• Education
• Social and health services

Swedish People's Party

• Justice
• Equality and Nordic co-operation

Overall, I'd say that SDP's portfolios, aside from Prime Minister, are pretty lightweight. Greens got the portfolios they wanted. And Centre got the agriculture portfolio which they always like to have. SPP's second minister is a Mickey Mouse portfolio that was added at the last minute because the party wanted to have two ministers.

The Left Alliance membership still has to ratify the party's participation in the coalition, but I'm sure that will happen. The other parties have no such requirement.

[Lechasseur]

Why did the SDP get so few "important" ministries? And why did the Greens get so many (it looks to me that they got 2 of the 4 most important positions in the government)?

[Helsinkian]

Why did the SDP get so few "important" ministries? And why did the Greens get so many (it looks to me that they got 2 of the 4 most important positions in the government)?

SDP did get to write much of the economic part of the government programme, increasing public expenditure. Though the Greens were never opposed to that, so I'm not entirely sure of the reason.

Centre was able to get elected regional councils into the programme. It was supposed to be implemented by the last government but it fell apart because of the NCP's scepticism toward it.

SPP was able to make Swedish a mandatory part of the school-leaving examinations again.

[Lechasseur]

I guess Centre thought they lost votes because they were percieved as too right-wing, so they could recover by shifting towards the left and being in a left-leaning government?

Yes. The right-wing turn was personified in PM Sipilä and the transportation minister Anne Berner who will be remembered for the (unpopular) deregulation of the taxi business. Sipilä will probably become the parliament's Speaker; that allows him an honourable exit from active politicking (since the Speaker is expected to be neutral).

Berner is returning to the private sector. Berner only joined the party just prior to the 2015 election, and after she had reneged on her commitment to stand as an NCP candidate – she calculated that Centre would be the bigger party in 2015 and thus made her party choice with little ideological commitment. Many veteran Centre politicians were bitter when Berner was chosen to be minister as a first term MP.

So do you think Centre entering a leftwing coalition will help or hurt them?

[Helsinkian]

So do you think Centre entering a leftwing coalition will help or hurt them?

Probably help somewhat, though I can't see them rising to the top of the polls anymore in the near future. I don't think they can go much lower in support than what they got in the election. Many in their base are sympathetic toward SDP co-operation, though on the other hand they are always sceptical toward the Greens because they clash on environmental issues in relation to agriculture.

[DavidB.]

Greens

• Foreign affairs

Is a Palestine recognition (following Sweden) likely now?

[Helsinkian]

Greens

• Foreign affairs

Is a Palestine recognition (following Sweden) likely now?

There's nothing about that in the coalition programme, and I would expect that it would have been made explicit in the programme if the Greens were insistent on it.

[Ethelberth]

I think Palestine is more important to Left wing alliance. Defence minister is the most bourgiouse  postion in Finland. Last time it was governed by left was in  early seventies (SDP minority government).