2020 NC- Gubernatorial Poll by PPP: Cooper on top

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1083030576066686977

Full Poll: https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/north-carolina-looks-like-battleground-once-again-for-2020/

[Politician]

Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup.

[smoltchanov]

Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup.

With everybody, but McCrory - yes. With him - simply Lean D.

[😥]

Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup.

[Roll Roons]

Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup.

With everybody, but McCrory - yes. With him - simply Lean D.

Not really. Rematches by defeated incumbents tend not to go well.

[smoltchanov]

Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup.

With everybody, but McCrory - yes. With him - simply Lean D.

Not really. Rematches by defeated incumbents tend not to go well.

I believe in numbers. 45-41 is a close race.

[lfromnj]

Mcrory makes it Safe D.

He lost as an incumbent governor in a state president trump carried.

[Suburbia]

Lean D, but anything can happen

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Garbage state. Cooper should be polling far better than this, but southern whites just can't bear voting for a Democrat because (insert the most recent pointless culture war controversy here).

[President Johnson]

Lean D, but anything can happen

This, especially if the Republicans are successful in rigging another North Carolina election. Maybe the state needs international observers.

[IceSpear]

The fact that McCrory of all people comes closest shows Cooper's position is far from secure and that his big leads against the other candidates are mostly just due to name recognition.

Lean D for now, but I could see this potentially becoming a toss up in the home stretch.

[QAnonKelly]

Will be interesting to see how NC votes pres/gov/senate in 20. I see Cooper winning pretty easily but the other two are going to be tight. Probably depends on how the economy is doing

[hurricanehink]

Will be interesting to see how NC votes pres/gov/senate in 20. I see Cooper winning pretty easily but the other two are going to be tight. Probably depends on how the economy is doing

We got a preview with the 2018 midterms. Cooper won while Democratic House candidates got 46.6% of votes (to GOP’s 53.22%). In 2018, Dems got 48.35% of the vote to GOP’s 50.39%. That’s encouraging movement. Not sure how instructive that is, since I’m 2012, McCrory won while the Dems got 50.6% of the house votes.

[lfromnj]

Will be interesting to see how NC votes pres/gov/senate in 20. I see Cooper winning pretty easily but the other two are going to be tight. Probably depends on how the economy is doing

We got a preview with the 2018 midterms. Cooper won while Democratic House candidates got 46.6% of votes (to GOP’s 53.22%). In 2018, Dems got 48.35% of the vote to GOP’s 50.39%. That’s encouraging movement. Not sure how instructive that is, since I’m 2012, McCrory won while the Dems got 50.6% of the house votes.

Reminder walter jones was unopposed. A generic D V R would be something like 60 40 but jones would probably make it 65 35.

[Senator Incitatus]

Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup.

With everybody, but McCrory - yes. With him - simply Lean D.

Not really. Rematches by defeated incumbents tend not to go well.

Can we get a fact check on this piece of conventional wisdom?

[Roll Roons]

Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup.

With everybody, but McCrory - yes. With him - simply Lean D.

Not really. Rematches by defeated incumbents tend not to go well.

Can we get a fact check on this piece of conventional wisdom?

Russ Feingold (WI-Sen 2016) and Bob Ehrlich (MD-Gov 2010) come to mind immediately. Also a couple congressional races, like Pete Gallego (TX-23 2016) and Joe Garcia (FL-26 2016). Roy Barnes (GA-Gov 2010) and George Allen (VA-Sen 2012) kind of count, since they both ran for their old seats against opponents who weren't the ones that had initially defeated them.

Plus McCrory himself will just not be a strong candidate. There's a reason he lost in 2016 even while Trump and Burr won. He's unpopular because of the whole bathroom bill fiasco, and the legislature's lame duck actions don't reflect well on him.

[Senator Incitatus]

Originally edited my fact-check into the original comment, but since it disrupts the flow of the discussion, I'll post it separately:
  
The truth is it rarely happens in the first place, not that it necessarily goes poorly when it does happen. That makes sense, since you better have a pretty good reason to run again if you've already lost as an incumbent governor and if you don't, you're probably not making it out of the primary.

I'll keep looking for more examples of both cases, since these elections are really compelling.

1841-MA: John Davis defeats Marcus Morton (again)
1842-MA: Marcus Morton gets (double) revenge on John Davis
1980-NH: Hugh Gallen defeats Meldrim Thomson (again)
1980-MO: Kit Bond gets revenge on Joe Teasdale
1982-AR: Bill Clinton gets revenge on Frank White
1982-MA: Michael Dukakis gets revenge on Edward King
1986-TX: Bill Clements gets revenge on Mark White
1991-LA: Edwin Edwards gets revenge on Buddy Roemer
2010-MD: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich (again)

[Virginiá]

Lean D, but anything can happen

This, especially if the Republicans are successful in rigging another North Carolina election. Maybe the state needs international observers.

How did the Republicans rig the election if they lost?

Pretty sure this is a reference to NC-09, not NC-Gov 2016.

Also, just for arguments sake, if your game is throwing away ballots and changing votes / filling in blank ballots, there is a limit to how much you can do. They don't know exactly how many votes they need, and it's impossible to know statewide. All someone like Dowless can do is pump out the number of votes they think it will take (without coming off too suspicious). This is also why it's easier to rig elections at the local level. The higher you go, the larger the vote count gets, and harder to control.

After all, it's not like you're just waiting for the election to finish so you can change some numbers on a computer.

[TarHeelDem]

Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup.

This.

What stands out to me the most from the data: the McCrory match-up is D+4 while the Tillis one is D+9. That's a beyond embarrassing number for Tillis. He's been a United States senator for four years and that's the best he's doing in a state Trump carried in 2016?

I actually think Forest is their best play here. No one knows who he is, but that gives the GOP a lot of room to define him as they like and pitch him to swing voters as an entity separate from the toxic reputation of the state party.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean D, and closer to Likely then Tossup.

This.

What stands out to me the most from the data: the McCrory match-up is D+4 while the Tillis one is D+9. That's a beyond embarrassing number for Tillis. He's been a United States senator for four years and that's the best he's doing in a state Trump carried in 2016?

I actually think Forest is their best play here. No one knows who he is, but that gives the GOP a lot of room to define him as they like and pitch him to swing voters as an entity separate from the toxic reputation of the state party.

Burr and Tillis are very low key senators who don’t have any presidential ambitions, so of course many people don’t have any opinion on their senators

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The fact that McCrory of all people comes closest shows Cooper's position is far from secure and that his big leads against the other candidates are mostly just due to name recognition.

Lean D for now, but I could see this potentially becoming a toss up in the home stretch.

Agreed, I might be inclined to start it at Tilt D tbh.

[Indy Texas]

Would Pat McCrory really want to run for governor for a fourth time in a row?

[Storr]

Would Pat McCrory really want to run for governor for a fourth time in a row?

Probably not. The probable/establishment favored GOP nominee is Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It won't last. He could probably beat McCrory again, but I would be much warier if his opponent is anyone else. I'd consider this race a tossup at this point.

[Meatball Ron]

These numbers are worse for Cooper than I would have expected/hoped. Lean D, but not all that comfortably.