2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[Oryxslayer]

At the start of this thing, you said that there was something around a 90% chance of BJP govt, either with Modi or another cabinet minister. In your mind, has that bell curve of outcomes shifted in favor of the INC given various developments and the expected UP BJP losses, and if so, by how much?

[Oryxslayer]

Odisha local channel Kalinga TV shows BJD landslide victory of BJD 20 BJP 1.  Big disappointment to BJP if true.

You sure that isn't the 2015 graphic? Because if BJP is failing in Odisha, and the block is losing seats in AP, it's hard to square the high NDA+ number. Maybe what it implies is a failure of BSP? Or the INC failing outside of the south?

[Oryxslayer]

I wouldn't day the Hindi belt. If we take the poll of polls as the best one here (since these exits have more MOE then in other countries do to the unique voting system) then it looks like the Tribal vote which both parties were uncertain about went BJP. Everything else seems to line up with the pre-election polls, maybe favoring BJP a tiny bit.

[Oryxslayer]

The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.

[Oryxslayer]

Great news but I don’t really trust exit polls


Also are you going to have a separate thread when the actual results come out

This thread is comparatively tiny when paired with other threads on this board.

[Oryxslayer]

History of exit polls in LS elections

What were exit poll projections in 2004 and 2014

Basically there is a huge MOE even when compared with your run of the mill exits, especially in some states like UP where 1% swing can move a basket of seats.

[Oryxslayer]

How long does the election take to count votes?

Results are announced on May 23, but we already know that Modi is likely the next PM, and Congress will be in the minority

Yes, the MOE may be huge but not large enough for anything other then a BJP govt. The question will be whether the NDA gets a majority on it's own or Modi has to woo some minors. A non-Modi BJP govt or a non-NDA govt would require something to be way off.

[Oryxslayer]

Right now I don't think the election is rigged or corrupted, at least any more than the usual. What's likely happening is that Modi's and the BJP's approvals are carrying a lot of weight in the national models when they may not end up being factors in a bunch of seats - unless as you say there has been a reallignment. You don't have many variables to work with on a national level that are useful through all 7 waves and can match the intricacies of the religious/caste/ethnic/regional/tribal/etc issues. So everything rests on the assumption that Modi's approved will be the most powerful factor, it's up to each individual to decide if this variable is as powerful as assumed. There is a reason for the usually unreasonable levels of error in the exit polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.

In this case do you mean on a seat by seat basis, or overall? For example, if a seat looks close early on, it might break for the winning party? Or is it a case of the TCTC seats breaking towards the overall winner, as is usually the case in fptp systems.

[Oryxslayer]

Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.

In this case do you mean on a seat by seat basis, or overall? For example, if a seat looks close early on, it might break for the winning party? Or is it a case of the TCTC seats breaking towards the overall winner, as is usually the case in fptp systems.

Overall.  Note counting is NOT random.  They announce results in rounds.  So they completely count precinct 1-10, announce results, then count precinct 11-20, then announced combined results etc etc.

Got,  it, thanks. Like everything else in the Indian elections, this is different from what we see in other nations.

[Oryxslayer]

Just woke up. Guess Modi's popularity stood strong huh.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1131544075423899648

Oops. He's got a seat in Kerala though.

[Oryxslayer]

As noted earlier, this elections message doesn't seem so bad for the INC, just like the BJP they killed some of the caste based parties but in less states. Like any other party caught on the backside of a realignment they need to rework their strategy, in these case towards a more nationally focused message. The parties that should be running scared after this election are the TRS, AITC, and probably a few others. If what is happening is the rise of the national BJP/NDA brand, then a national INC/UPA brand with eventually rise to challenge them, finally introducing India to that two-party squeeze so common in FPTP.

Aligning with one camp or another has to be much more tempting now, rather then going into an election 'alone.'

[Oryxslayer]

Honestly, the takeaway from this election should be that ~75% of votes were cast for one of the two main alliances. I don't think anything like that has ever happened, except when the Janata party rose to oppose Indria, and even then it was a unique circumstance. Its also the clearest sign that:

-We are in a new political era
-The FPTP squeeze is coming for india
-Localists need to start picking sides.

[Oryxslayer]

Honestly, the takeaway from this election should be that ~75% of votes were cast for one of the two main alliances. I don't think anything like that has ever happened, except when the Janata party rose to oppose Indria, and even then it was a unique circumstance. Its also the clearest sign that:

-We are in a new political era
-The FPTP squeeze is coming for india
-Localists need to start picking sides.

Actually one huge factor in what has just happened appears to be that a lot of alliances between opposition parties backfired big time, to the benefit of the BJP. With the exception of the BSP they would probably all have won more seats had they run alone.

By alliances here do you mean seat-allotments or party blocks? The later only really hurt JD(S), SP, and AIADMK, but some of these were always going to get punished. In that case then it makes sense if seats were divided up in between opposition blocks - the BJP has the best brand and will win a good number of 1 v 1 races with whomever. But if the INC brand starts improving in the future, then there really is little space left for third parties unless they hitch their horse to the big two.

[Oryxslayer]

Orange Rajasthan and UP, Congress did really bad

look at Kolkata lol

Kolkata is actually AITC still, is the surrounding towns/suburbs/slums that are orange.

 

This was probably the least suspenseful international election so far of this year. And as usual, the right wing party won. This was fairly expected though, so I don't feel that much like s*** this time.

This should actually be one of the most interesting elections of 2019 (so far just behind Spain), its not everyday so see a country decide to unmake their system and reallign into a new era. its just not interesting from the birds eye view where India remains Orange. But this was an incredibly Bi-Polar election, with the unalligned/third-way blocks losing seats and votes to the big two blocks. The BJP was able to resist the traditionally negative caste/regional winds and give India truly national election for the first time in a long time. The INC was just playing an old game when the rules had already changed. But who knows if they will be able to reshape their brand in these next five years to reflect the new national system.


Oh, and I'll be having detailed maps on my twitter in the coming days, once everything is called and I can analyze states.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's another thought I had pouring over the results: in 2015, five states (Odisha, WB, AP, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu) elected near large numbers of local alliances. In 2019, those states that had concurrent locals (Odisha, AP) saw the local vote hold up better than in those states that didn't. Admittedly, AIADMK and YSRCP were always going to lose/win, the question was just by how much. The answer turned out to be 'a lot.'  Those that did not have concurrent local elections lacked their local message perhaps to counter the national message from or against the BJP.

[Oryxslayer]

I think all the votes are in

NDA  353 (BJP 303)
UPA 92 (INC 52)
OTH 97

At 52 INC still dose not get the Leader of Opposition position.

I have 355-90-97 as my final count...do you consider AD(S) part of the UPA despite being part of the NDA? For reference my count of UPA has INC-NCP-JD(S)-DMK-JMM-IUML-JKNC-Kerala Cong-+1 indie.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the difference comes from  Viduthalai and the Revolutionary socialist party which I countied as unaligned, but some sites count as UPA. As you say, this gets weird - some sites don't count JKNC as UPA others do. Some count the eastern tribal alliances as NDA, some don't.

[Oryxslayer]

How you count the Sears is always going to be different depending on perspective, it probably best to say the NDA has ~350, UPA ~90, and others ~100.

Also, is the leader of the opposition in India a meaningful title with privileges attached, or is it it just that, a title? Because if it affords the INC some privileges, it shouldn't be too hard to get 2 people to switch parties within the block or extend membership to some Indies...can it? Something naturally would have to go back in exchange of course, either officially or unofficially.

[Oryxslayer]

Sonia officially replaces Rahul.