2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 64864 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #400 on: May 19, 2019, 08:30:48 AM »

Anthro AI doubles down in BJP defeat in UP

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/uttar-pradesh-2019-projection-seven-phases-144-million-voters-key-issues-one-ballot/



We believe the BSP + SP + RLD will win 54 seats in Uttar Pradesh. We may be wrong about 8 seats. The BSP will win 27. The SP will win 22. The RLD will win 2. We have a few more weak projections for the BSP than for the SP.
We believe the BJP will win 21 seats. This may go up by 9 seats we have currently projected for other parties.
We believe the INC will win 4 seats.
We believe the PSP(L) will win 1 seat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #401 on: May 19, 2019, 08:32:30 AM »

VDP doubles down in BJP landslide victory in UP

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jaichind
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« Reply #402 on: May 19, 2019, 08:35:06 AM »

Chart of exit polls so far .. I think NewsX might be a typo


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jaichind
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« Reply #403 on: May 19, 2019, 08:37:51 AM »

History of exit polls in LS elections

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jaichind
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« Reply #404 on: May 19, 2019, 08:39:49 AM »



Sudarshan - NDA 313 UPA 121 OTH 109
Suvarna  NDA 295-315 UPA 122-125 OTH 125-102 (Huh typo???)
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jaichind
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« Reply #405 on: May 19, 2019, 08:43:05 AM »

ABP Nielson
NDA 267 (BJP 218)
UPA 127 (Congress 81)
Others 148
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jaichind
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« Reply #406 on: May 19, 2019, 08:51:03 AM »



Zee news NDA  292 UPA 136 OTH 114
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jaichind
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« Reply #407 on: May 19, 2019, 09:09:54 AM »

Looks like the INC-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka was a total disaster with various exit polls having BJP perhaps above 20 which seems above BJP's hope of 17.  This should be a cautionary tale about all that talk about how INC "should" have formed an alliance with AAP in Delhi. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #408 on: May 19, 2019, 09:11:32 AM »

NDVT poll of polls so far






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urutzizu
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« Reply #409 on: May 19, 2019, 09:27:40 AM »

NDA mostly seems to be in line with expectations where third parties are strong, but BJP overperforming massively where there is no third party and in the Hindi-Hindu belt.
Esp. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka and MP seem way off when considering the assembly elections, unless there was significant vote spitting (voting INC regionally and BJP nationally).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #410 on: May 19, 2019, 09:36:16 AM »

I wouldn't day the Hindi belt. If we take the poll of polls as the best one here (since these exits have more MOE then in other countries do to the unique voting system) then it looks like the Tribal vote which both parties were uncertain about went BJP. Everything else seems to line up with the pre-election polls, maybe favoring BJP a tiny bit.
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jaichind
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« Reply #411 on: May 19, 2019, 09:57:56 AM »

My 8 year old son who is taking his final exams right now for Chinese school would be disappointed with these exit polls.  He liked Rahul Gandhi a lot more than Modi and was really rooting for UPA.  I told him, yeah, I do not like Modi nor Rahul Gandhi but it seems  Modi will win and the only questions is by how much.  He was too busy studying for his finals this morning to look at these exit polls.  After he is done he will find out that it is a Modi victory and most likely a significant one.
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jaichind
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« Reply #412 on: May 19, 2019, 10:03:30 AM »

If these regional breakdown of the exit polls are right then Modi should be given a lot of credit to pulling BJP across the finishing line.  In a lot of core Hindi states the trend of state anti-incumbency cycle was against BJP but it seems the Modi factor pulled BJP through.   In other areas the result seems to be more inline with pre-election trends with a slight pro-NDA tilt.  The BJP surge in WB and Odisha shows that Modi has turned the BJP from a Hindu Hindi party to a Hindu Indo-Aryan party.  If so then we are potentially in another era where the BJP becomes the natural party of governance and the INC route to power again is much more difficult. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #413 on: May 19, 2019, 10:09:35 AM »
« Edited: May 19, 2019, 10:53:07 AM by jaichind »

News18 exit poll has NDA 336 UPA 82 OTH 127
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jaichind
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« Reply #414 on: May 19, 2019, 10:39:08 AM »

Current NDTV poll of polls

Total: NDA 298 UPA 124 OTH 120 (out of 542)

AP: YSRCP 15 TDP 10
Assam: NDA 9 INC 3 OTH 2 (I assume AIUDF)
Bihar: NDA 32 UPA 8
Chhattisgarh: BJP 6 INC 5
Delhi: BJP 6 INC 1
Gujarat: BJP 23 INC 3
Haryana: BJP 8 INC 2
Jharkhand: NDA 9 UPA 5
MP: BJP 24 INC 5
Maharastra: NDA 36 UPA 11 OTH 1 (I assume AIMIM)
Odisha: BJP 11 BJD 10
Rajasthan: BJP 22 INC 3
TN: UPA 27 NDA 10 OTH 1 (I assume AMMK)
UP: NDA 50 SP-BSP-RLD 28 INC 2
Karnataka: NDA 19 UPA 9
Kerala: UPA 14 Left 4 BJP 1 (does not add up to 20)
Punjab: INC 8 NDA 4 AAP 1
Telengana: TRS 12 INC 1 BJP 1 (does not add up to 17, I assume AIMIM 1)
WB: AITC 26 BJP 14 INC 2
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jaichind
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« Reply #415 on: May 19, 2019, 10:52:14 AM »

Some of the later exit polls are showing massive NDA landslides

India Today-My Axis has NDA 339-365 UPA 77-108  OTH 69-95


Chanakya-News24 has NDA 350 UPA 95 OTH 97


So that makes 4 exit polls with NDA way above 300 (other two are VDP and News18).
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jaichind
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« Reply #416 on: May 19, 2019, 10:55:13 AM »

ABP Nielson
NDA 267 (BJP 218)
UPA 127 (Congress 81)
Others 148


ABP Nielson adjusted their exit poll to

NDA 277 UPA 130 OTH 135


 
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jaichind
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« Reply #417 on: May 19, 2019, 11:09:49 AM »

My own average of all exit polls has it at NDA 306 UPA 120.  If we take out News24-Today's Chanakya and VDP both of whom have historical pro-BJP biases, then the average is NDA 300 UPA 123.  If so then the trend is clear that it would be a significant NDA victory.

My gut feeling is still that the real results will be in the lower range of the exit polls for NDA.  I have to dig into state by state projections and vote share to be sure  though.  Couple of reasons

1) It seems vote share wise everyone seem to agree that the NDA vote share lead over UPA are in the 6%-11% range.  My own model seem to show that a vote share lead for NDA of 9% does not lead to a massive majority.
2) I suspect there are still a bunch of pro-incumbent biases in these exit polls.  These biases underestimated BJP in 2014 and most likely overestimate BJP in 2019

Still one way ore another it is clear that it will be a Modi led goverment with anywhere from a slim to massive majority for NDA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #418 on: May 19, 2019, 11:16:04 AM »

VDP UP exit poll by community




If true then the BJP won by winning the battle of non-Jatav Dalit (partly) and really winning the battle for non-Yadav OBC while keeping the Upper Caste from defecting to INC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #419 on: May 19, 2019, 11:23:14 AM »

Latest NDTV poll of polls




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jaichind
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« Reply #420 on: May 19, 2019, 11:29:51 AM »

I found out the ECI ban on exit polls in media outlets until 6:30pm when voting ended for the 7th and last phase is also true for astrologers and tarot card readers whose projections are not allowed to be broadcast on media.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #421 on: May 19, 2019, 11:34:54 AM »


The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #422 on: May 19, 2019, 11:50:54 AM »

The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.

Correct.  I always felt that places like MP, Rajasthan, HP, Haryana, and Gujarat will be highly correlated with each other.  Now we now that they likely broke for BJP although I think the exit polls overestimate it.   It was always UP that was going to be different but it was not clear how with many different surveys on the ground giving very different projections on the ground.  Ergo my obsession with UP throughout the campaign.  That BJP is doing so well in places like Jharkand and Chhattisgarh is a big surprise to me.  It seems the tribals vote overlooked local issues to vote for a strong national security PM.  The Dalit vote did seem to shift away from BJP but was not enough to stop the BJP given the BJP strong performance with Upper Castes and OBCs.
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Computer89
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« Reply #423 on: May 19, 2019, 12:37:35 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2019, 01:00:00 PM by Old School Republican »

Great news but I don’t really trust exit polls anymore 


Also are you going to have a separate thread when the actual results come out
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #424 on: May 19, 2019, 12:41:59 PM »

Great news but I don’t really trust exit polls


Also are you going to have a separate thread when the actual results come out

This thread is comparatively tiny when paired with other threads on this board.
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