2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

By beating BJP 30 to 25, JMM became the first party to beat BJP in terms of Jharkhand MLAs for the first time since the 1985 INC landslide when INC beat BJP 43 to 12 in terms of MLAs in Jharkhand.  Although in 2009 BJP and JMM were tied at 18 MLAs.

By winning 16 MLAs the INC won the most MLAs in Jharkhand since 1990 when it won 20 MLAs.

[jaichind]

Protests continue for CAA across India.  Just to be clear there are two parallel sets of protests that have nothing to each other other than being against CAA. 

In Assam+NE: The protesters' position are "Kick out ALL illegal immigrants NOW"
In the rest of India: The protesters' position are "The CAA now creates a constitutional issues where people are being treated differently due to religion"

[jaichind]

Map of state governments.  To be fair AIADMK's TN, YSRCP's AP, and BJD's Odissa are pro-NDA.



In early 2020 we will have Delhi assembly elections.  AAP there have made an impressive recovery from the 2019 LS elections and seem look set to win re-election by eating up most of the anti-BJP vote.

In late 2020 we will have Bihar.  This one is interesting.  On paper JD(U)-BJP-LJP have a mathematical advantage over RJD-INC-RLSP with HAM looking like to run separately.  The Jharkhand setback will increase JD(U) hand relative toe BJP which will generate a large number of JD(U) candidates which could face local BJP opposition.  Also Nitish Kumar's 2005 2010 and 2015 victories were all by running against the government at the center.   In 2020 for the first time Nitish Kumar will have to run an assembly election without being able to run against a federal government.  Nitish Kumar in 2020 will face double anti-incumbency with JD(U)-BJP in power both in Bihar and at the center.  I suspect JD(U)-BJP-LJP will still have the edge but by very narrow margins. 

[jaichind]

I was able to construct the result chart

2019 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          80               25               34.02%

BJP rebel                        2                 1.86%

AJSU          53                2                 8.22%

LJP            33                 0                0.30%

JD(U)         45                 0               0.74%

JMM+         81               47              35.84% (INC and RJD were part of JMM+)

JMM rebel                       0                0.27%

JVM            81                3                5.53%

JVM rebel                       0                 0.27%

CPI(ML)      14                1                1.16%

MCO             8               0                0.98%

NCP             7               1                 0.43%

JKP            16                0                0.37%

BSP            66               0                1.55%

AIMIM        16                0                1.17%
 
CPI+          19                0               0.49%

CPM            9                 0               0.32%

Most of the JVM and JMM MLAs that the BJP recruited triggered BJP rebels and most of them lost.  Two BJP rebels won. So the strategy of trying to win by roping in leaders/MLA from opposition parties mostly failed.

The strike rate of JMM is 30 out of 43, INC is 16 out of 31, RJD is 1 out of 7.  JMM mostly fought in rural Tribal areas, INC fought mostly in urban areas with high concentrations of Dalits, Muslims and Upper Castes while RJD ran in OBC heavy districts.  Where the BJP fell short is clear.

[Continential]

Map of state governments.  To be fair AIADMK's TN, YSRCP's AP, and BJD's Odissa are pro-NDA.

I thought that the TDP wasn't part of the NDA

[jaichind]

Map of state governments.  To be fair AIADMK's TN, YSRCP's AP, and BJD's Odissa are pro-NDA.

I thought that the TDP wasn't part of the NDA

TDP-BJP had an alliance for the 2014 LS and assembly elections in both AP and Telangana.  TDP was part of NDA until March 2018 when it broke with BJP which in retrospect seems like a mistake.   BTW, there are now signs that both TDP and AP ruling YSRCP both competing to be the BJP de facto partner.  BJP's brand is poor in AP and both TDP and YRSCP needs the Muslim and Christian Dalit vote so both are very subtle about it.  Right after the 2019 LS elections the entire TDP RS caucus joined the BJP.

[jaichind]

In Jharkhand  the BJP vote share actually went up from 2014.  Part of it was of course it contested alone versus with an alliance with AJSU and LJP back in 2014.  Part of it was because it ate into the JVM base.  Looking deeper it seems that a lot of the JVM defectors to BJP brought with them the JVM base and won a few seats for the BJP.  Had this not taken place the result for the BJP would have been even worse.

The track record for defectors are:

BJP:  2 2014 BJP winners defected to AJSU. Both lost
        1 2014 BJP winner defected to JMM.  He lost
        1 2014 BJP winner turned rebel.  Namely Saryu Roy who switched seats to challenge BJP CM Raghubar Das in Jamshedpur East and won.   Saryu Roy old seat Jamshedpur West was lost to INC.  So Raghubar Das antagonizing  Saryu Roy cost the BJP 2 seats as had  Saryu Roy ran in Jamshedpur West for the BJP he was sure to win.

AJSU: 1 2014 AJSU winner defected to JMM.  He won

INC: 2 2014 INC winner defected to BJP (one was actually elected in a by-election.)  Both lost

JMM: 2 2014 JMM winners defected to BJP.  1 won.  The JMM actually nominated this JMM winning defector's brother who was the JMM candidate in 2005 in the same seat.  He failed to retain the seat for JMM away from his defecting bother.
       1 2014 JMM winner defected to JVM.  He lost
       2 2014 JMM winners turned rebel.  Both lost but one of them split the JMM vote to throw the race to BJP.

NSM: 1 2014 NSM winner defected to BJP.  He won.  This was the only MLA of the Leftist NSM from 2014 and now he is a BJP MLA

JVM: 6 2014 JVM winners defected to BJP.  4 won. One of the JVM defector losers actually lost to a BJP rebel that the BJP ran against him in 2014 and lost.   The high strike rate here seems to indicate that the BJP was able to successfully capture a good part of the JVM base.

So the net effect of all this is as much as the BJP strategy of poaching opposition MLAs mostly did not work for non-JVM opposition parties it was fairly successful with respect to the JVM and had it not done so the result would have been even worse for the BJP in face of the combined strength of the JMM-INC-RJD bloc.

[jaichind]

To compute the relative strength of BJP vs INC over time I came up with a metric of using state level assembly election vote shares.  This filers out the effect that both BJP and INC tend to get a larger than deserved seat allocation with local allies for LS elections and the affect of personal waves in LS elections (BJP's Vajpayee in 1999, INC's Manmohan Singh in 2009, and BJP's Modi in 2019.)

What I did was for the end of each year compute the total vote share of BJP and INC in the most recent state assembly elections.  This is a bit of a lagging indicator but does give you the shape of BJP vs INC party strength over time.  Doing so gives us.

Year     BJP         INC  
2019  26.80%  20.64%
2018    26.42%  21.14%
2017    25.78%  19.97%
2016    21.88%  20.68%
2015    21.06%  21.03%
2014    20.54%  21.56%
2013    18.30%  24.52%
2012    17.17%  23.98%
2011    17.23%  23.93%
2010    17.43%  24.40%
2009    17.40%  24.47%
2008    17.80%  24.76%
2007    17.83%  24.58%
2006    18.03%  24.34%
2005    18.68%  24.05%
2004    18.37%  23.93%
2003    18.28%  24.68%
2002    17.10%  25.32%
2001    18.38%  24.49%
2000    18.57%  27.49%
1999    17.98%  28.15%
1998    17.60%  27.08%
1997    17.57%  26.42%
1996    17.82%  26.56%
1995    17.65%  29.12%
1994    17.30%  29.25%
1993    16.47%  31.38%
1992    14.18%  31.34%
1991    13.94%  31.37%
1990    10.36%  32.94%
1989      7.62%  37.78%
1988      7.47%  37.96%

After the 1989-1991 Hindutva realignment leading to the surge of BJP in Northern India BJP stagnated until the Modi surge in 2014.   While the BJP is now decisively stronger than INC it is no stronger than INC was back in the late 1990s and early 2000s.  

INC's decline since the late 1980s is partly losing support to BJP but also key local branches splitting off (Maharashtra's NCP - realized in this chart in 1999, WB's AITC - realized in this chart in 2001, and AP's YSRCP - realized in this chart in 2014.)  Even in this weakened state, the INC is still stronger than BJP was in the 1994-2013 period given residual INC strength in the South.

[jaichind]

We can now group my state assembly vote share index by my grouping of states.  Namely my  (Hindi, Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan, Dravidian, Sino-Tibetian) categorization.

Hindi states

Year     BJP      INC
2019  36.97%  20.90%
2018  36.72%  20.38%
2017  38.36%  17.95%
2016  29.80%  20.19%
2015  29.80%  20.19%
2014  28.88%  21.46%
2013  27.16%  22.52%
2012  23.24%  21.56%
2011  24.97%  21.78%
2010  24.97%  21.78%
2009  25.13%  21.90%
2008  25.45%  22.04%
2007  26.53%  21.47%
2006  27.14%  21.39%
2005  27.14%  21.39%
2004  26.29%  21.12%
2003  26.29%  21.12%
2002  23.94%  22.43%
2001  28.41%  21.95%
2000  28.41%  21.95%
1999  28.26%  22.80%
1998  28.26%  22.80%
1997  28.66%  21.01%
1996  28.66%  21.01%
1995  28.01%  26.19%
1994  28.99%  26.73%
1993  28.99%  26.73%
1992  25.31%  25.69%
1991  25.31%  25.69%
1990  18.66%  28.95%
1989  15.02%  36.61%
1988  14.79%  41.39%
 
Hindi states have been the area of BJP relative strength even in the 1980s.  The 1989-1991 Hindutva BJP surge was focused in the Hindi states where INC lost ground to BJP and regional parties (SP, BSP.)  The INC bleeding stopped by 1996.  In 2002 BJP lost ground to SP BSP in UP which weakened BJP overall relative to the mid 1990s.  The Modi surge in 2014 gained support from non-INC regional parties culminating with the 2017 UP BJP surge.  INC has been stable here since 1996.


Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan

Year     BJP        INC
2019  26.83%  24.41%
2018  25.83%  25.86%
2017  22.88%  25.67%
2016  22.61%  25.14%
2015  20.31%  25.20%
2014  20.31%  25.20%
2013  16.51%  26.41%
2012  18.29%  25.88%
2011  17.69%  25.36%
2010  17.90%  26.66%
2009  17.90%  26.66%
2008  18.10%  27.32%
2007  17.24%  27.46%
2006  17.04%  27.06%
2005  17.93%  26.28%
2004  17.93%  26.28%
2003  17.16%  28.31%
2002  17.22%  28.32%
2001  15.96%  26.80%
2000  16.40%  34.01%
1999  15.31%  34.57%
1998  14.22%  33.30%
1997  14.27%  33.07%
1996  14.73%  33.75%
1995  16.02%  32.72%
1994  12.77%  33.29%
1993  10.62%  36.08%
1992  10.62%  36.14%
1991  10.14%  36.04%
1990    7.22%  36.88%
1989    4.41%  42.21%
1988    4.39%  41.71%

Key swing states which BJP has been historically weak and INC historically strong.  The 1989-1991 Hindutva BJP surge was not as strong as in Hindi states but did eat into INC support over time through the 1990s.  INC support fell relative to baseline in 1999 due to the loss of NCP in Maharashtra and in 2001 due to the loss of ATIC in WB.   By the early 2000s the BJP have started to stagnate there.  The Modi surge in 2014 ate partly into INC as well as other regional forces.


Sino-Tibetan

Year   BJP        INC
2019  22.03%  23.32%
2018  19.78%  26.59%
2017  14.70%  33.57%
2016   4.39%  35.41%
2015   4.39%  35.41%
2014   4.39%  35.41%
2013   1.91%  37.26%
2012   3.11%  38.73%
2011   2.72%  36.40%
2010   2.72%  36.40%
2009   2.72%  36.40%
2008   3.98%  35.50%
2007   5.85%  33.96%
2006   8.79%  31.38%
2005   8.79%  31.38%
2004   8.79%  31.38%
2003   7.82%  30.90%
2002   6.67%  32.08%
2001   7.28%  29.14%
2000   7.28%  29.14%
1999   4.24%  33.30%
1998   3.31%  34.14%
1997   2.65%  35.82%
1996   2.65%  35.82%
1995   2.65%  35.82%
1994   1.82%  36.66%
1993   1.83%  37.04%
1992   0.65%  37.23%
1991   0.65%  37.23%
1990   0.65%  37.23%
1989   0.26%  34.96%
1988   0.31%  32.78%

This region have fairly few Hindu voters so the 1989-1989 BJP  Hindutva surge had very little effect. Given this region is fairly dependent on federal subsidies voting tend to lean toward the party of natural governance (historically INC) and the party in power at the center.  This explains the BJP surge starting in 1998 when BJP came into power followed by decline in the 2000s when INC returned to power with INC rising in the late 2000s.  BJP's return to power in 2014 and in a way the displaced INC's role as the nature power of governance led to a massive realignment toward the BJP.


Dravdian

Year     BJP      INC
2019   4.42%  12.19%
2018   4.82%  12.81%
2017   4.80%  12.04%
2016   4.80%  12.04%
2015   3.76%  13.47%
2014   3.76%  13.47%
2013   3.17%  24.31%
2012   3.17%  24.31%
2011   3.17%  24.31%
2010   2.87%  24.19%
2009   2.87%  24.19%
2008   2.79%  24.19%
2007   2.79%  24.19%
2006   2.79%  24.19%
2005   3.31%  24.48%
2004   3.31%  24.48%
2003   3.78%  24.86%
2002   3.78%  24.86%
2001   3.78%  24.86%
2000   3.33%  25.96%
1999   3.33%  25.96%
1998   3.41%  22.63%
1997   3.41%  22.63%
1996   3.41%  22.63%
1995   3.28%  26.93%
1994   3.28%  26.93%
1993   2.37%  32.29%
1992   2.37%  32.29%
1991   2.37%  32.29%
1990   2.00%  32.70%
1989   2.00%  32.75%
1988   1.99%  26.56%

BJP's Indo-Aryan Hindu appeal means that it was always weak in Dravdian states.  1980s was a era of relative INC weakness in this area and was in the middle of reviving from in the late 1980s as the BJP Hindutva surge was eating into INC support in the North.  INC lost most of this ground in the mid 1990s to regional forces where things stabilized until 2014 when YSRCP's split from INC in AP gravely weakened INC in this region.  In the meantime the BJP gained ground very slowly and as of now is still a very minor force here which poses a challenge to the BJP to be a true all-India dominate party like INC was in the 1980s and before.

[jaichind]

In terms of upcoming assembly elections what one would expect from a CW point of view.

2020 Delhi: Minor gains for both BJP and INC at the expense of AAP but AAP retains power
2020 Bihar: BJP most likely loses vote share relative to 2015 due to having to share seats with JD(U) even if JD(U)-BJP-LJP returns to power. INC most likely stagnant as a part of RJD-INC-RLSP alliance.

2021 WB:  Major gains for BJP even if BJP does not capture power from AITC.  INC will lose some ground
2021 TN and Kerala: significant gains for INC, most likely small gains for BJP.  DMK-INC will flip TN while INC will flip Kerala
2021 Assam: Hard to say.  Given CAA one would expect INC to gain and BJP to lose ground AGP most likely to run separately.

2022 UP: The big unknown.  BJP most likely will lose ground but how SP BSP INC are configured will determine if BJP will lose power
2022 Uttarakhand, HP, Gujarat: INC to make gains and BJP to lose ground.  Very possible INC flips all 3 states.

2023: Karnataka: Hard to say but most likely BJP loses ground to INC
2023: Telengana: Both INC and BJP gains ground.  TRS could lose power to INC
2023: MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh: BJP gains ground from INC.  BJP to win power for sure in Rajasthan and likely MP.  Chhattisgarh most likely stays with INC.

[jaichind]

Jharkhand SC reserved seats which implies relatively higher Dalit concentration seats in 2014 and 2019

Implies that BJP took over part of the JVM Dalit base but lose ground to JMM-INC-RJD
 


Jharkhand ST reserved seats which implies relatively higher Tribal concentration seats in 2014 and 2019   

Total collapse of BJP seats here as the tribal vote swings against BJP

[jaichind]

Part of the reason the BJP pushed through CAA is to try to gain the Bengali Hindu vote in the upcoming 2021 WB assembly election.  WB is the last Indo-Aryan state where the BJP have not broken through (get a vote share above 15%) so that is the next mission critical state for BJP.

If you look at the Purbi Singhbhum district of Jharkhand which has a high Bengali population (around 1/3 of the population are Bengali speaking) the result seems mixed and somewhat negative for BJP.  In 2014 it was 4 BJP 1 AJSU 1 JMM.  In 2019 it is now 4 JMM 1 INC 1 BJP rebel.  The BJP vote share fell from 34.23% to 32.86% even as the BJP vote share rose slightly across Jharkhand.  If this is indicative of how the Bengali speaking population is voting the CAA is not increasing BJP support among Bengalis and in fact might have lose ground.

The BJP with CAA have lost ground in Assam by losing the Ahom vote hoping to trade it in for higher Bengali vote in WB, Assam and Jharkhand.  So far it does not seem to be paying off.

[jaichind]

For the upcoming 2020 Bihar assembly elections it seems the BJP plan was to bargain for: JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar be the NDA CM candidate but BJP gets half of the 243 seats with LJP getting around 25-30 and JD(U) rest.

Now after the Jharkhand election results most likely the new BJP position will be: JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar be the NDA CM candidate with LJP getting 25-30 seats with BJP and JD(U) splitting the rest down the middle.  An emboldened JD(U) will most likely ask for the JD(U):BJP seat ratio be similar to the 2010 141:102 split.   After the BJP lost SHS in Maharashtra and AJSU in Jharkhand (although claims that if BJP-AJSU continued their alliance the would have won is unlikely to be true since any analysis of the AJSU candidates and votes seems to indicate they ate as much into the JMM-INC-RJD vote as the BJP vote) the BJP most likely will end up comprising and accepting less seats than JD(U).

The main problem for the BJP is that at the grassroots there are large number of BJP cadres that are tiring of the JD(U) alliance and might go into hibernation in seats allocated to JD(U).  So in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections the seats contested by JD(U) will be the weakest link  and will determine the result.   

[jaichind]

VDP poll on CAA.  All India numbers are 42% For 38% Against 20% DK/No Opinion

Breakdown by state are


Assam has a massive 70% against.  Punjab due to to non-Hindu factor also high levels of opposition.
 Hindi states (UP Rajasthan) has high levels of support.  Deep South Dravidian (TN Kerala) have high levels of opposition.   Non-Assam Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states are swing areas.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/what-led-to-the-bjp-s-defeat-in-jharkhand-11577685931774.html

CSDS post-election survey of Jharkhand

CM choice
Hemant Soren(JMM)                   21
Raghubar Das(BJP)                    14
Arjun Munda(BJP tribal leader)    10
Sudesh Mahato (AJSU)                 6
Babulal Marandi (JVM)                  5

Approval/Disapproval
CM Raghubar Das(BJP)        51/45
Hemant Soren (JMM)           60/27
PM Modi(BJP)                      80/14
Sonia Gandhi(INC)              55/38

Modi still fairly popular

                  JMM-INC-RJD    BJP
Muslim               53              14
Tribals                39              30
Dalits                 36              35
OBC                   29              41
Upper Caste        25              42

JMM-INC-RJD over-performed among OBC and Upper Castes while BJP over-performed with Dalits

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra the SHS-NCP-INC did a government expansion to add to the cabinet to full strength and ensure all 3 parties got its share of power as per agreement.  And lo and behold the NCP DCM is no other than Ajit Pawar who led a failed coup to take over the NCP and bring it into an alliance with BJP to form a government a couple of months ago.  So now Ajit Pawar will have been a DCM under an INC BJP and SHS CMs.  It sort of makes one think the entire Ajit Pawar rebellion was staged by NCP supremo Sharad Pawar to a) test the water of a possible BJP-NCP alliance and b) put pressure on SHS and INC to accede to NCP demands in their alliance talks

The cabinet expansion was explained in the cartoon below


CM Maker = Sonia Gandhi
Super CM at large = Rahul Gandhi
Super CM =  Sharad Pawar
Permanent DCM =  Ajit Pawar
ex-CM = Former INC CM Ashok Chavan who will loom large as the INC leader in the cabinet
and last and least CM = Uddhav Thackeray

[Continential]

While talking to my parents and grandpa about Indian Politics, we talked about how Jagan Reddy will lose the next election due to farmers being pissed because he wants to change the Capitol to Visakhapatnam.

[jaichind]

While talking to my parents and grandpa about Indian Politics, we talked about how Jagan Reddy will lose the next election due to farmers being pissed because he wants to change the Capitol to Visakhapatnam.

Yeah, that one was wierd.  After the separation of Telangana and AP, AP was given large funds to build a new capital at Amaravati.  YSRCP's Jaga always claimed that this project was being milked by rival TDP's Chandrababu Naidu for corrupt purposes.  He has a point.  A lot of AP politicians have their real profession in the construction business and getting involved in politics and being a MLA is really about getting projects for their firms.

Anyway now that Jagan's YSRCP is in charge he came out a couple of weeks ago with a crazy scheme to have 3 capitals with Amaravati the legislative capital, Kurnool as judicial capital, and Visakhapatnam as the administrative capital.  This scheme is even crazier than the setup between Punjab and Haryana where they share the capital of Chandigarh.   I suspect in the end Jagan will back down from this crazy scheme.

Anyway with or without this scheme most likely next election in 2024 YSRCP will most likely lose to TDP given the large number of promises that YSRCP made which most likely would not be fulfilled.  And like you pointed out Jagan gave no impression he would do something like this when he was leader of opposition in AP and the Amaravati plan was drawn up and proposed.  This is a total shock to all parties, especially the farmers that gave up their lands for Amaravati.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

VDP poll on CAA.  All India numbers are 42% For 38% Against 20% DK/No Opinion

Breakdown by state are


Assam has a massive 70% against.  Punjab due to to non-Hindu factor also high levels of opposition.
 Hindi states (UP Rajasthan) has high levels of support.  Deep South Dravidian (TN Kerala) have high levels of opposition.   Non-Assam Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states are swing areas.

it's like a 20ish point spread between hindus and sikhs in the favor of sikhs in punjab, and it's -21 in punjab, makes sense.

[Sbane]

VDP poll on CAA.  All India numbers are 42% For 38% Against 20% DK/No Opinion

Breakdown by state are


Assam has a massive 70% against.  Punjab due to to non-Hindu factor also high levels of opposition.
 Hindi states (UP Rajasthan) has high levels of support.  Deep South Dravidian (TN Kerala) have high levels of opposition.   Non-Assam Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states are swing areas.

it's like a 20ish point spread between hindus and sikhs in the favor of sikhs in punjab, and it's -21 in punjab, makes sense.

Why would Sikhs be more opposed to this law than Hindus? In my experience they are just as anti-Muslim as Hindus.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

VDP poll on CAA.  All India numbers are 42% For 38% Against 20% DK/No Opinion

Breakdown by state are


Assam has a massive 70% against.  Punjab due to to non-Hindu factor also high levels of opposition.
 Hindi states (UP Rajasthan) has high levels of support.  Deep South Dravidian (TN Kerala) have high levels of opposition.   Non-Assam Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states are swing areas.

it's like a 20ish point spread between hindus and sikhs in the favor of sikhs in punjab, and it's -21 in punjab, makes sense.

Why would Sikhs be more opposed to this law than Hindus? In my experience they are just as anti-Muslim as Hindus.

More of them support the inc and not a hindutva state in India for obvious reasons, so ig they just tow the modern inc party line more. I dont see any other reason why Punjab would be an outlier. The others that don’t like that bill are either dravidian or muslims (or both), and a handful of north indian hindus.

[jaichind]

VDP poll on CAA.  All India numbers are 42% For 38% Against 20% DK/No Opinion

Breakdown by state are


Assam has a massive 70% against.  Punjab due to to non-Hindu factor also high levels of opposition.
 Hindi states (UP Rajasthan) has high levels of support.  Deep South Dravidian (TN Kerala) have high levels of opposition.   Non-Assam Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states are swing areas.

it's like a 20ish point spread between hindus and sikhs in the favor of sikhs in punjab, and it's -21 in punjab, makes sense.

Why would Sikhs be more opposed to this law than Hindus? In my experience they are just as anti-Muslim as Hindus.

Because they read the law's long term vision the same as I do: Indo-Aryan Hindu identity for India.  While Punjabi checks the Indo-Aryan box there is the Hindu part of Indo-Aryan Hindu which clearly clashes with Sikhism.

[Continential]

VDP poll on CAA.  All India numbers are 42% For 38% Against 20% DK/No Opinion

Breakdown by state are


Assam has a massive 70% against.  Punjab due to to non-Hindu factor also high levels of opposition.
 Hindi states (UP Rajasthan) has high levels of support.  Deep South Dravidian (TN Kerala) have high levels of opposition.   Non-Assam Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states are swing areas.

it's like a 20ish point spread between hindus and sikhs in the favor of sikhs in punjab, and it's -21 in punjab, makes sense.

Why would Sikhs be more opposed to this law than Hindus? In my experience they are just as anti-Muslim as Hindus.

More of them support the inc and not a hindutva state in India for obvious reasons, so ig they just tow the modern inc party line more. I dont see any other reason why Punjab would be an outlier. The others that don’t like that bill are either dravidian or muslims (or both), and a handful of north indian hindus.

I thought Sikhs don’t support the INC due to the Anti-Sikh riots.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

VDP poll on CAA.  All India numbers are 42% For 38% Against 20% DK/No Opinion

Breakdown by state are


Assam has a massive 70% against.  Punjab due to to non-Hindu factor also high levels of opposition.
 Hindi states (UP Rajasthan) has high levels of support.  Deep South Dravidian (TN Kerala) have high levels of opposition.   Non-Assam Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states are swing areas.

it's like a 20ish point spread between hindus and sikhs in the favor of sikhs in punjab, and it's -21 in punjab, makes sense.

Why would Sikhs be more opposed to this law than Hindus? In my experience they are just as anti-Muslim as Hindus.

More of them support the inc and not a hindutva state in India for obvious reasons, so ig they just tow the modern inc party line more. I dont see any other reason why Punjab would be an outlier. The others that don’t like that bill are either dravidian or muslims (or both), and a handful of north indian hindus.

I thought Sikhs don’t support the INC due to the Anti-Sikh riots.

That’s a while ago and the inc is a bit different since then, also some support them because it’s obviously still less out of bounds than what the others have to offer. Most all the Sikh areas are INC and allies in the local legislature, and a slightly smaller percentage but still strong majority on the federal level.

[jaichind]

I thought Sikhs don’t support the INC due to the Anti-Sikh riots.

That is the main BJP talking point when campaigning in Sikh areas.  It was a long time ago and in Punjab for better or worse INC is the main alternative to SAD-BJP so the only way for Sikh voters to show dislike for SAD-BJP is to vote INC.  Also INC having Singh as INC PM also mostly made its peace with Sikh voters.  In the 2014-2017 period AAP did surge upward in Punjab mostly with Sikh voters but blew up after it was revealed that it was getting funding from overseas radical Khalistan organizations which these days are mostly seen as too radical and to violent for the Sikh mainstream. 

BTW, Canada's NDP leader Jagmeet Singh also seems to be involved in various radical Khalistan  organizations but somehow no one called him out on it during the most recent Canada election.