Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Red Velvet]

One question: How can we assess, by the local election results in November, if Bolsonaro is really popular and rallying his base? His party isn't registered yet, right? And he doesn't have no more ties with the PSL, right?. Or should we look at the results for the junior parties in his coaltion: PSD, PSC, PP and others?

Bolsonaro is going to support candidates that are alligned with him, from multiple parties. For example, in Rio it’s likely his base will be inherited by incumbent Crivella (if he’s allowed to run and keeps his political rights). In São Paulo that person could be Russomano. Not sure about other cities yet, election campaigns start late here and usually last only 1 or 1.5 months.

Best way is probably looking at each State capital results to see how many of these people had Bolsonaro or his base’s blessing and support.

[Red Velvet]

So is PSOL (lol) going to go anywhere in the upcoming federal election?

Also, can any Brazilian poster please tell me the difference between PSB, PMDB, and the other marginal , officially social democratic parties? I’m confused as to how such a fractured environment upon third way blairite parties exists. Also the green parties pls

PMDB (now MDB) = Big tent party that isn’t much defined by ideology. It’s probably the party people think when you think of a bland establishment politician. MDB usually supports whoever is in power so they can have influence. It was part of FHC PSDB government in the 90s but then it was also part of Lula and Dilma’s PT government until Temer assumed.

PSB = Center-left party, although not usually considered “as left” as PT/PCdoB/PSOL. It’s probably best compared to PDT, the other center-left party (who ran Ciro Gomes in 2018 for president). Didn’t support anyone in 2018 due to PDT vs PT conflict but now they have a deal with PDT for the municipal elections where one will support the other depending who is stronger on each city.

REDE (Sustainability Network)= Brazil’s environmental party, ran Marina Silva on 2018. There’s also another Green Party (PV) but they don’t have the same reputation of caring about environment since Marina is probably the biggest “authority” in the country when it comes to that subject. REDE is kinda center-leftish, is in the PDT and PSB deal too but it’s not as “loyal” (REDE will run a candidate in Rio, which already had a PDT one).

PSDB = Despite the Social-Democratic in the name, it’s a Center-Right party that used to be in the top 2 biggest parties, always rivaling with PT. But they kinda had a small collapse post-2014 and their base evaporated, they radicalized and voted for Bolsonaro in their desperation to take PT out of power. Only relevant name they have nowadays is probably the Governor of São Paulo, João Doria. Doria supported Bolsonaro for president in 2018 to get elected but now they’re against each other since Doria has ambitions to run in the future.

PSD = Fisiological party that doesn’t have a defined ideology but it’s center-right leaning. Parties name mean nothing in Brazil, so don’t assume anything from the social-democracy in their name. PSD politicians (along with many other parties) are just there for the sake of using the balance of power in their favor. If president gives them special favors, they will support the president and if he doesn’t they will be against him. This group of fisiological parties is called “Centrão” around here and because it’s impossible for any president from any ideology to achieve a majority without this group of fisiological parties, they always manage to have A LOT of influence into the government.

Dilma was impeached because she lost the support of “Centrão” in congress after she refused to help the ex-president of congress with his justice problems. Bolsonaro, knowing that it’s the support of centrão that decides your fate regardless of what you do, started getting much closer to that group after weakening signs of his government in the start of the pandemic. Now he looks more stable because he is giving them favors.

Problem of “Centrão” is that they’re necessary for presidents to have governance but the price paid is very high. And if you don’t attend them, they can suddenly turn against you. It’s a problem of having TOO many different parties. I think around 6 or 7 would be the ideal to end these fisiological ones and force parties to actually be for something.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro is now gaining support from lower income groups that voted against him in 2018. That gain in support is significant and growing since June because of the monthly financial help the poor are receiving during the coronavirus pandemic.

Meanwhile, he was losing support at the start of the pandemic with the more affluent groups who elected him because they were tired of all the daily scandals and his disregard for the pandemic (Brazilian elites are dumb so they expected him to be “controlled”). Bolsonaro wanted a coup at a point in the pandemic and tried to interfere in the Supreme Court but when the military made it clear behind closed doors they wouldn’t get behind this, Bolsonaro stopped getting into constant attack mode to preserve himself otherwise he could’ve gotten the chop if he kept antagonizing the congress and the judiciary. So he “moderated“ his discourse (Not really, he just stays more quiet nowadays) since June and that somewhat controlled his trend of losing support with upper and middle classes, which was aggravating at the start of the spread of Coronavirus.

To be popular in Brazil you basically just need to give people some money and keep your mouth shut in regards to public appearances, while sucking up to the interest of established powers and majority of people will like you well enough lol. Assistencialism to the poor and “boring” predictability that doesn’t frighten the markets to the elites, trying to balance each other because if you spend too much cash to help the poor, the elites get mad. And if you’re not enough of a populist and is too bland then you won’t be embraced by the poor either.

Until people find out you sucked up TOO much to the political establishment, then everyone gets mad and accuse you of being the biggest corrupt of all time even if that always happens because it’s a systematic structural problem. You gotta have reform that takes money out of politics, limit the number of parties, etc.

I don’t feel like Brazilian democracy is at risk of ending right now in the present, but I think Brazil can become another Hungary depending how much time Bolsonaro stays in power. Orbán was a 10 year project after all. Bolsonaro wished for a coup but since the institutions stopped him, he’s now taking the route of continuously weakening institutions so that they can be destroyed at some point. If he were to lose reelection, I just can’t imagine he would simply accept leaving in a peaceful manner, but I hope Institutions will be strong enough in order to not allow this to be something he can control.

[Red Velvet]

Biden talked about giving 20 Billion to Brazil to preserve the forest or else economic consequences would be faced (aka: sanctions).

I see it more of a warning to put pressure on Bolsonaro while also shifting the responsibility to somewhere else in front of his public. Like in a “Hey sure should do better regarding climate change here but look at Brazil right now, they’re the ones to blame”.

The idea is basically just to put money so that they can have any say regarding what happens in the forest and can give punishments if their say isn’t met. Of course Bolsonaro would refuse to participate on that. It isn’t a good plan for anyone (US or Brazil) but it’s good that Biden is putting the country’s name out there on a negative light because it adds pressure from other multiple sectors that do concern Bolsonaro a lot.

If Trump loses, Bolsonaro will have lost his only meaningful ally and will be isolated since a lot of his positions are kinda more validated on the outside by being similar to what the US president says. He will be forced to change and actually do sh**t (an ideological loss for him and his base) or risk making the country a complete pariah on international stage since all the biggest world leaders will be against him lmao. And that wouldn’t be good for Brazil’s economy, which would stimulate a response from market types and elites who elected him and he wouldn’t get re-elected, so he loses in that scenario as well.

But if Trump wins, that would be remarkable validation for Bolsonaro, both domestically and internationally.

[Red Velvet]

I don’t buy that “senate won’t pass” excuse he is giving to his supporters that are disappointed with his choice because it isn’t someone conservative enough. Senate would pass almost anyone, as long as they had some minimum curriculum. Bolsonaro is on the hands of “Centrão” now since that moment around June when his popularity was decreasing because of Covid and his private intentions of a coup against the judiciary failed when the military pushed it off the table.

It became clear to him that if he kept with his “anti-politics”  position against everyone he would isolate himself only for the purpose of energizing his base. So he “moderated” and decided to do what everyone who wins the presidency has to do if they want to survive politically: give what “Centrão” wants and become more “pro-establishment”. Otherwise, everyone would easily join forces to get rid of him.

That Supreme Court nomination is all about two things: nominating someone supported by “Centrão” and someone that has a more anti-punishment leaning and will likely protect people like his son, Flávio Bolsonaro, who are involved in corruption scandals.

Honestly, I don’t give a damn about the choice, it’s the usual business from always. It’s really funny to watch from the sidelines how pathetic the Brazilian right is though, bragging for a year that the left would go mad whenever Bolsonaro nominated the first “wildly conservative and evangelical” Supreme Court minister that they never had and now they’re the ones making a scandal online because their president nominated a boring establishment guy who will defend corrupts instead. And who is catholic too, not an evangelical at all.

If there’s one luck Brazilian left has is that Brazilian right is too stupid and pathetically ideological, because they had potential to be more dangerous as well. These people only dream they were like the Republicans in the US always getting final word against Democrats, they ignore the particularities of where they live. They really believed they would get a right wing anti-system revolution with a guy who was always a parasite in the system in his whole life with tons of public benefits lmaooo. I almost feel bad for them ripping their hair off thanks to this Supreme Court minister nomination because it must suck to waste so much passion believing in something just to have five years later THIS be the result of such work.

[Red Velvet]

“Centrão”

What does that mean?

“Centrão“ literally translates to “Big Center”, an union of fisiological parties in congress without a defined ideology but who use the balance of power to benefit themselves since every president who wants to do anything or even politically survive, must get their support in order to have a majority on congress.

I had explained it more here:

PSD = Fisiological party that doesn’t have a defined ideology but it’s center-right leaning. Parties name mean nothing in Brazil, so don’t assume anything from the social-democracy in their name. PSD politicians (along with many other parties) are just there for the sake of using the balance of power in their favor. If president gives them special favors, they will support the president and if he doesn’t they will be against him. This group of fisiological parties is called “Centrão” around here and because it’s impossible for any president from any ideology to achieve a majority without this group of fisiological parties, they always manage to have A LOT of influence into the government.

Dilma was impeached because she lost the support of “Centrão” in congress after she refused to help the ex-president of congress with his justice problems. Bolsonaro, knowing that it’s the support of centrão that decides your fate regardless of what you do, started getting much closer to that group after weakening signs of his government in the start of the pandemic. Now he looks more stable because he is giving them favors.

Problem of “Centrão” is that they’re necessary for presidents to have governance but the price paid is very high. And if you don’t attend them, they can suddenly turn against you. It’s a problem of having TOO many different parties. I think around 6 or 7 would be the ideal to end these fisiological ones and force parties to actually be for something.

[Red Velvet]

His most popular opponent is still in prison.

Who is that? If it’s Lula you may have missed the news but the Supreme Court released him out of jail in 2019. He is free but without political rights, at least for now because there are possible developments on the horizon...

Supreme Court is scheduled to analyze the Lula trial and decide whether Sérgio Moro (judge who sent Lula to jail) was partial or not after the revelations that came out from “The Intercept Brasil”, with leaked messages of Moro. If they decide Moro was partial, Lula would regain his political rights.

I don’t think Lula is the only opponent Bolsonaro has though. Bolsonaro is worried about a possible campaign of Sérgio Moro himself, who he fired during the pandemic due to Moro accusing him of illegally trying to interfere inside Brazilian federal police (Bolsonaro tried to do it to protect his sons from justice). Moro would win votes from the right if he were to run.

The Brazilian right who elected Bolsonaro is now very divided. There are the remaining Bolsonaro supporters and also a growing base that supports Sérgio Moro and is now very against president Bolsonaro because they feel he betrayed them by abandoning the “anti-corruption” agenda represented by Moro for the sake of protecting his family from corruption.

There is actually a right wing protest scheduled for this next Sunday against Bolsonaro lmao. It’s basically the anti-corruption “Car-wash” Sérgio Moro base that is angry about the Supreme Court nomination and the president government. They consider Bolsonaro a “traitor”.

Meanwhile, even from the left, Lula is not the only option. Ciro Gomes could be a conciliatory name for those who just want to end polarization. If the PT were to not run anyone in 2022 just to back Ciro from the background, Ciro would come quite strong (think of Cristina Kirchner running as Fernández VP in Argentina for comparison). The left still has lots of dialogue and organization to do between themselves though. Both Lula and Ciro want to be protagonists, or at least in Lula’s case, he wants his party to be.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/brazil-police-cash-jair-bolsonaro-ally-buttocks-chico-rodrigues

Jair Bolsonaro’s efforts to portray himself as an anti-corruption crusader have suffered another blow after police reportedly seized a wad of banknotes from between the clenched buttocks of one of his allies.

Chico Rodrigues, the Brazilian president’s deputy leader in the senate, was reportedly caught with the concealed bundle on Wednesday during a police search of his home. The raid was part of an operation against the suspected misappropriation of public funds for fighting Covid-19.

The Estado de São Paulo newspaper said two sources told it 30,000 reais (more than £4,100) were stashed in the underpants of Rodrigues, a senator for the Amazon state of Roraima.

“To give you a sense of just how preposterous the situation was, some of the recovered notes were stained with faeces,” reported Revista Crusoé, the conservative magazine that broke the story.

That money he stole and put inside his posterior openings was supposed to go to victims of COVID, which makes this story even more disturbing.

[Red Velvet]

Results of the US election give me hope and dread about this country’s next two years.

Hope = Populists or right wing allies of Bolsonaro are falling down everywhere. Macri was kicked from Argentina last year and now in 2020 it’s Trump, who Bolsonaro always tried to model himself after and use as an excuse to get away with much of the garbage he spews. Now he is completely isolated in a continent where current trend is to move left (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, USA, soon Ecuador...)

Dread = Biden still sucks and I don’t trust him when it comes to Latin America foreign policy. Brazil under Bolsonaro is currently the biggest pro-US country in the region, supporting stuff like interfering in Venezuela, which both US parties are in favor of. I could see Biden siding with Bolsonaro because of that. And if he goes the complete opposite way (and be radically opposition to Bolsonaro), that would be terrible to the country as well even if it has the silver lining of weakening Bolsonaro.

I can understand the Brazilians celebrating the Biden win simply for the sake of owning Bolsonaro because his BFF lost, we’re all at a point where “If Bolsonaro is sad, I’m happy”. But situation will still be very complicated and it isn’t guaranteed we will be able to get rid of that monster ourselves at all.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah, it usually doesn’t really matter at all to Brazil who wins US elections but the Trump-Bolsonaro association with the fascist global movement changed this in the new scenario.

On one hand, I actually was okay with Trump isolationism as a whole, less US presence on the world is always more good than not. Biden will be the same old, which ehhh. But seeing fascism get weaker globally and consequentially Bolsonaro, made me lean towards preferring Biden even if I don’t trust him at all.

All democratic presidents have supported the right-wingers in Latin America but Bolsonaro is a very special and more extreme case so I’m curious to see what happens. What you say is probably right, Biden will likely try to be mostly friendly to Bolsonaro but keeping a safe distance in order to not intoxicate himself and also putting pressures in private conversations in regards the environment. Bolsonaro will moderate somewhat in the environment because it’s not like he has other friends at this point, since he fights with everyone, and that’s it. It will probably be that boring.

Even then, the notion of a US president with the intention of pushing a Brazilian one to the progressive left, even if in one specific issue only, is kinda of mindblowing to me lol. Last time I can think of something similar is during late 70s, when Jimmy Carter (the last US president who was worth something) wanted explanations about human right abuses in the military dictatorship.

That’s why part of me still believes Biden will end up being mostly friends with Bolsonaro just for the sake of interfering in Venezuela. But I’m happy it’s not Trump.

[Red Velvet]

Yes, there is a paralell to Jimmy Carter. He increased the pressure on general Ernesto Geisel in order to increase political openness.

Jimmy Carter >>> Joe Biden though. The left celebrating Biden’s victory way too much after everything he said in regards to Brazil and/or Latin America is a bit nauseating to me honestly, people are so traumatized because only political disasters happen since 2015 that the small hint of a shift domestically and Bolsonaro more sad and isolated is enough for them to exaggerate and act like you cannot criticize Biden at all.

Which is understandable at the moment, but I hope these people don’t act like voting for Sérgio Moro, who is responsible for a lot of this mess of the rise of fascism (and why it’s more common to see judges acting like they’re GODS), is someone we should be excited for in order to defeat Bolsonaro. A Moro vs Bolsonaro is the only scenario I would refuse to vote for anyone. Any other scenario I would vote against Bolsonaro.

Criticism is important in order for people to not lose perspective. I think the symbolism is very important but it’s not everything.

[Red Velvet]

Ernesto Geisel > Jair Bolsonaro
Geisel launched the 2nd national development plan in order to keep the high GDP growth after the 1973 oil shock. Most of the investment of this plan was conducted by state owned enterprises. Geisel recognized PR China and not Taiwan as the true China. Geisel was in the same side of Fidel Castro in the civil war in Angola: he recognized the MPLA government. Geisel was closer to the arabs than Israel in the Middle East conflict. Geisel made an agreement with FR Germany in order to import technology to build the Angra nuclear power plant. Geisel tried to increase trade with Japan, European Community and even the eastern european communist bloc in order to become more independent of the USA.
During the disagreement between Jimmy Carter and Ernesto Geisel, the brazilian left didn't know which side to choose. On one side, Jimmy Carter was trying to push the end of the dictatorship. On the other side, Geisel was trying to have a more nationalist approach to the economy and to the foreign policy.
Bolsonaro is very different. He supports Chicago economics. He is an underdog in foreign policy. He will not appeal to anti-american leftists if Biden criticizes his administration.

I agree in regards to the 70s, even if I think the end of dictatorship was the priority. The problem today is that I think the liberal left is making a lot of assumptions that Biden will antagonize Bolsonaro and not try to use his pro-US positions on their favor now that most of Latin America is swinging left.

[Red Velvet]

So... tests for the Coronavac vaccine, realized in partnership between São Paulo’s Instituto Butantan and the Chinese company Sinovac, are the most advanced ones being realized in Brazil. Expectations is that it would be ready before the Oxford vaccine, which is also realizing tests here in Brazil.

Government agency Anvisa suspended the trials yesterday though, after a voluntary died. But the cause of death was unrelated to the tests, the person in case committed suicide!

Bolsonaro has been a champion of the anti-vax movement and his base has been trying to delegitimize Coronavirus vaccines for a long while. For the Chinese they use xenophobic conspiracy that Chinese government wants to kill people, for the Oxford one they use conspiracy about Bill Gates financing the vaccine and having a long time project of wanting to permanently alter the DNA of all humanity.

Now Bolsonaro is celebrating a suicide for stopping the tests and trying to relate the death to vaccine, as if the person was stimulated to commit suicide because of the vaccine! All this because the merits of the vaccination would go to the São Paulo Governor, who articulated with the Chinese to do the tests. Bolsonaro is an egomaniac narcissist playing with the lives of millions of Brazilians without any conscience, a genocidal!

[Red Velvet]

Following Joe Biden / Kamala Harris example, I think that there will be a Ciro Gomes / Marina Silva ticket in the presidential election of 2022. He is an old moderate white man, who has a long experience in politics. She is a moderate black woman.

I support him but I think there’s no way that Ciro will be the unity candidate.

1. Ciro’s policies focus on industrialization and developmentalism and those are very dirty words for the right. For some specific right-wing sectors he’s seen as the worst option with chances, especially if PT goes with a moderate light candidate like Haddad already was. Because that’s someone they could manage better if elected, especially considering that anti-PT feeling would give them more leverage to control the PT government.

2. A good chunk of Brazilian left is extremely loyal to Lula and if the Ciro vs Lula political dispute intensifies, they will become even more anti-Ciro. PT’s biggest adversary is Ciro, just like Bolsonaro’s biggest danger is the center-right and that is reflected in the campaign that already started.

3. The mainstream media which is alligned with right and center-right types like Huck, Doria and Moro (which they call “moderate center”) dislikes Ciro as well, the only situation they support him is when he is having a dispute with PT. But in every other scenario they paint him in a very negative light.

4. The extreme right aligned with Bolsonaro wants to polarize between them and PT because they think that’s their best chance of winning. They want PT to be weak but not too weak that it fails to make runoff against someone else. So they will put their structures strongly against Ciro.

5. Ciro’s outspoken personality to say whatever he thinks without measuring the consequences makes him popular with his 10% loyal base but it is something that will be unpopular with the media and lots of regular people and there will be strong negative propaganda like it was before.

6. I don’t think Ciro will succeed in creating alliances centered on him. Won’t work if he focus on the left, PSOL and PCdoB are more likely to go towards PT. Won’t work if he focus on the center by forming a center left+center right alliance, center right will go to PSDB like it always has and support Doria even if he’s uncharismatic and has even lesser national recognition than Alckmin. Although the COVID vaccine in SP could help Doria, I guess. DEM will do the same and get behind Doria or run a candidate of themselves: Luciano Huck.

The Martha Rocha scenario is more likely, he will be attacked from all sides: right, left and center. He’s certainly more energetic than her and can defend himself much better, but I still have doubts if he will be able to manage it all.

There will simply not be one “Biden” and honestly, that is probably for the best since Bolsonaro was already a “Trump”. The right was already a failure because they followed US trends, people should just stop looking at that country for examples because nothing good comes out.

[Red Velvet]

I see it as a 5-way dispute, maybe 4 or 6. Considering only the ones with a chance obvs, because as always there will be tons of people running.

1. Bolsonaro
2. Doria or random PSDB
3. Huck*
4. Ciro
5. PT
6. Boulos or random PSOL**

*unsure, but probably yes
**unsure, probably not in 2022

I think the Boulos hype is very “from the moment” and we need time to see if PSOL can really become a major alternative nationally. PT would be the most negatively affected if that happened, could destroy them. But PSOL could end up replacing the PT eventually considering the perception that PT became old and obsolete and PSOL is its younger version, so I don’t fully doubt it.

I don’t see Boulos living up to the current 5-6% in polls he is getting, especially in a very close race. But I am confident PSOL will run someone in order to excite their base and secure to reach the higher vote share that will be required for congress.

The center-right camp will have 2 major candidates, Doria and Huck. In their spectrum, Doria will be more of a right-wing candidate and Huck more of a center candidate, as he’s already wanting to paint himself as a progressive even though he voted Bolsonaro in 2018 “against PT” lol. Huck is more of a liberal, while Doria is a conservative even if way moderate compared to Brazilian far-right.

Moro will likely not run (thank god because a runoff with him is only scenario I would support Bolsonaro).

Doria is very unlikable even inside the PSDB and most of that PSDB vote already went to Bolsonaro in 2018, they need at least to get a significant chunk of it back to get to the runoff and ensure there is no big support for other candidates like NOVO or whatever else that might get significant support.

What could help Doria though:

1. Create an union of the center-right somehow, especially if the left stays divided. Put all the non-Bolsonaro right parties in an alliance, even bigger than the one PSDB managed to in 2018.

2. Bring Huck as his VP (even if I doubt he would leave Globo for anything less than the presidency). You add charisma to the ticket, which Doria desperately needs, while also getting rid of someone who is a major spoiler and can split the center-right vote.

3. The COVID Chinese vaccine in São Paulo being a success while the federal government fails in providing an accessible alternative to the rest of the country. Which tbh, is looking very possible since Bolsonaro likes anti-vaxxers. It would be better if Doria planned to aid other states than just São Paulo if he really wants to build a national profile though.

With a very fragmented left and these three other elements, I think Doria can very well easily make it. He just needs to oppose Bolsonaro like hell in order to get at least some of the PSDB vote back and go to the runoff.

Ciro needs a fragmented scenario and hope that his 12%, which seems very stable and loyal, can campaign hard and add at least some more votes from pragmatists. His attack strategy shows he is aware this is his only chance, I do think he is dividing the left away from the PT because he kinda needs to. PT would never accept alliance where they’re not in the top of the ticket.

Ciro needs to invest more on social media like PSOL though. A 16% vote intention for example, could very well be enough in a fragmented scenario where PSOL takes away votes from PT and the PSDB fails to gain excitement and center-right/right is divided between Doria, Huck and all those other smaller names like NOVO.

PT needs to at least hold most of their vote intention from 2018 and hope it will still be enough. Opportunistic media still uses them as a scarecrow. They’re in defense mode, which is why they basically mostly just respond to Ciro attacks or focus on nostalgia these days instead of focusing against the right-wing government or providing a new project for the future.

PT has unfortunately defined itself as a party of one personality instead of a major country project and those on a worldwide level, don’t manage to outlive their leader once they’re gone. New leaderships should’ve been given more space inside the party. Natural ones, not fabricated and forced by Lula ones like Dilma.

PSOL and Ciro Gomes are their biggest threats and if PSOL ever gets to prove itself as a threat to them in the national stage, it will get more hate from Lula’s most loyal supporters. But the PT itself would be forced to support them if that were ever to happen.

Bolsonaro will be on the runoff, so he just needs to think about strategy for that 2nd round. But an united center-right is his biggest threat if he loses popularity, most of that vote from PSDB in 2018 that he gained could go back to them or other center-right options. Bolsonaro also conveniently put some potential traitors inside his government and that could be interesting in the next two years, especially if they sabotage him to favor PSDB or “centrão”.

[Red Velvet]

Scenario for 2022

Far-right: Bolsonaro, of course. We still don't know if he will join Progressistas, Republicanos or PSL. I also include Amoedo in the group of far-right, but Novo did not well in the municipal elections in 2020.

Center-right: Possible names are João Doria (governor of São Paulo), Eduardo Leite (governor of Rio Grande do Sul), ACM Neto (mayor of Salvador), Rodrigo Maia (president of the House), Sérgio Moro (former judge and Bolsonaro's Minister of Justice) and Luciano Huck (TV star). The governor of São Paulo is always a natural candidate, since São Paulo has the biggest GDP and 22% of the country's population. But Doria has not high approval rate. Luciano Huck had friendship in the past with not so good people (Aécio Neves, Sergio Cabral, Sergio Moro, Eike Batista, Joesley Batista, Ricardo Electro and Robinho). He might become vulnerable in a campaign. Moro used to have support from the far-right, but this group considers him a betrayor.

PDT/PSB/Rede: I believe there will be a Ciro Gomes / Marina Silva ticket, although I don't believe they will be sucessful (Red Velvet and I explained why).

PT/PCdoB: Fernando Haddad (former mayor of São Paulo), Jacques Wagner (senator) or Flávio Dino (governor of Maranhão). Even if Lula have all his rights back, I don't belive he will try again, since he is very old and he knows that half of the population doesn't like him.

PSOL: No other name than Guilherme Boulos was mentioned until now. We don't know if Boulos will run again or if PSOL will make an alliance with PT in the 1st round

To what degree has the Brazilian mainstream center-right acclimated itself to Bolsonaro? If Bolsonaro is the most popular right-wing politician in the country (and assuming roughly 50/50 approval ratings, it means he has support from most rightists), would they even run a separate candidate?

There is a difference between center-right parties and center-right voters. Brazil has multiple parties so naturally there is competition from inside the right and left for protagonism. There isn’t one sole right or left entity party-wise. And PSDB used to be a national protagonist, they want that spot back.

PSDB’s João Doria wants the presidency and has become opposition against Bolsonaro especially after Coronavirus. Even though he capitalized on Bolsonaro vote in 2018. He knows his chance to win is weakening Bolsonaro, getting some votes back and going to the runoff.

That said, it isn’t a given that center-right voters will abandon Bolsonaro to vote for Doria, as you said. Many can feel if they abandon Bolsonaro for anyone, they can strengthen the left. But Bolsonaro isn’t a good president/administrator. Sustained himself in 2020 due to the Covid payments given to the poorer and shaky alliances with “Centrão”. It isn’t a given that he will be strong in two years, especially if he botches the vaccination plan nationally while Doria succeeds in São Paulo with the distribution of his vaccine.

Doria already announced that he will start vaccination in the state of São Paulo in January 25th and will allow ANY Brazilians who are in São Paulo soil to get it, regardless if they live somewhere else.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has no real plan other than vaguely suggesting vaccination will start in March, flirts with anti-vaxxers, let millions of Covid tests pass their expiration date because of lack logistics and now it is being reported that federal government will probably delay distribution of vaccines because they didn’t buy enough syringes and other necessary material in time. Optics could prejudice Bolsonaro and favor Doria, especially considering federal government could block the São Paulo vaccine just to politically prejudice Doria. That would anger some people, to see the president playing with their health to try to favor himself.

Besides, it’s not like Doria needs to get all Bolsonaro votes, just some enough in order to go to the runoff against him.

[Red Velvet]

A Supreme Court majority has decided that vaccination will be obligatory in Brazil, which doesn’t mean it will be forced.

“Obligatory” in a similar sense that voting is technically “mandatory”. Basically, if you refuse to take one, you suffer some sanctions/penalties as punishment for not fulfilling your civil duties. Probably will be stuff like government not providing documents like passports, or social benefits being canceled for those who receive it.

Still, it is a major blowback to Bolsonaro, who embraced the anti-vaxxers narrative of putting doubt about the vaccines safety. He initially tried to sabotage the SP Governor vaccine plan and now he’s trying to make a partnership in order to not get behind, but he still says he won’t vaccinate himself and that people can also just not take it if they don’t want. Making the vaccine “obligatory” changes this proposed path, so it’s good.

[Red Velvet]

Supreme Court is the one thing stopping this country from completely falling down to ground. Most of them were nominated during Lula and Dilma years, so Bolsominions are angry that they tend to be more progressive than they want, with stuff like pro-LGBT and pro-science decisions.

Bolsominions (Bolsonaro most fanatic voters) usually respond with calls to break democracy and close the Supreme Court with police force, whenever they make a decision they hate. They especially hate this vaccine decision because it goes against what Bolsonaro promised them. They spread many fake news about vaccines to incite more fear in the population to not take them, including things like “there is HIV in the vaccine” or “ it will alter your DNA”.

Bolsonaro stimulates these theories with comments such as the one he made yesterday in order to push away responsibility from him: “If you turn into an alligator, it’s your problem”. This man should be in prison whenever he’s out of government. I wish population was angrier enough to do much worse to him, after all the people he murdered with this response to the virus.

Just to think Brazil was a reference in vaccination just 10 years ago under the left wing government... The H1N1 was much weaker but the federal government response treated it more serious than current ones treat COVID-19. The right (domestic and international) is too incompetent and jealous, they only live to hate the others successes and progress. It’s easier to destroy what others made than construct something of your own, which is why they fully embrace anti-intellectualism.

President of the congress Rodrigo Maia (from DEM) has also done good work in blocking Bolsonaro more regressive agenda but Brazilian constitution doesn’t allow reelection for the president of congress and senate seats, both of which last only two years. His presidential term ends in February, let’s see whether he can articulate enough support in congress to elect a successor or if Bolsonaro will win the fight and elect his own chosen candidate: Arthur Lira (Progressistas).

[Red Velvet]

Why did Brazil order Sinovac over Pfzer or Moderna Vaccine in the first place?
Was it cheaper?

I think Moderna is mostly reserved for the US, UK, Canada and a few others to some European countries. Not sure, but I believe US bought almost all the stock in advance.

Pfizer deal wasn’t initially made with the government arguing that it was logistically impossible to distribute the vaccine since that one has to be stored in -70 Celsius degree freezers. But other Latin American countries bought it and Pfizer said they presented a solution for it so I think it’s partially the government’s bad will as well. I don’t trust Bolsonaro government to want the pandemic to end.

Btw, “Brazil” as a federal institution didn’t buy Sinovac vaccines, it bought Oxford ones.

Sinovac was an independent deal made by the São Paulo governor (João Doria from PSDB) with China, to Brazilian institutions to produce that vaccine in Brazil and distribute them to all citizens of the São Paulo state. Federal government vilified that vaccine for political reasons and is only NOW wanting to buy them from São Paulo government because Doria promised to vaccinate São Paulo in January and federal government doesn’t have other options. It would be very bad for Bolsonaro image if only São Paulo got vaccinated due to a initiative from a political adversary of his, while other states have no vaccine and see São Paulo get vaccinated. That’s why Bolsonaro is pretending to care about vaccination now, political reasons.

Federal government bought tons of Oxford vaccines months ago and acted like it was a done deal and they wouldn’t have to worry about vaccines anymore. Probably they liked how it was much cheaper and also assumed it would be the first to come out because it looked so months ago. When the smartest path would be to not rely on one single vaccine, I would’ve bought a smaller moderate amount from each different vaccine. That way you ensure at least the vaccination of groups under risk starts the moment first vaccine is approved, while also getting to see which works best for the future.

Now, with the delays and questions of Oxford vaccine, Federal government is forced to rely on the Chinese vaccine they vilified lmao. It’s actually funny, but without the laughter and with more deaths. Hopefully the fact Bolsonaro ignored the seriousness of the pandemic will make people angrier with all this vaccination saga but Brazilian fatalism mentality, somewhat inherited from a catholic religious background, makes me not eager to put all my bets on that backlash. But it could maybe happen.

[Red Velvet]

So, Rio's still incumbent mayor, Marcelo Crivella, was arrested today because of alleged bribery scheme in city hall.

He's also been accused of using IURD, Universal Church of the Kingdom of God, for money laundering.

I give it two weeks max for him to be released.

But good news, I guess. The conservative moralist right is crumbling.

[Red Velvet]

I hope Crivela and his fellows get investigated and judged, but the arest was not necessary. It is possible to arest someone before the sentence if someone is too dangerous outside the jail. If there is the danger to disturb the investigation, to harm the collection of evidence, for example. This doesn't seem to be the case of Crivela. The arest looked like a theater.

Totally was, especially considering he was released today and put under home arrest.

That said, these abuse of powers and “theater arrests” designed for the media have been fully normalized at this point and people have validated it because they like seeing politicians they dislike go to jail. No one cared about the sensationalism of Lula’s “arrest” so why act concerned when conservatives get arrested? Their activists are the ones who accepted this justice insurrection and punitivism (penal populism) because it was politically convenient to them when the government was a left wing one.

Now that it’s conservatives in power they act the complete opposite and turn against the “justice” they elevated, call for the closure of the judiciary and attack the same police system they used in their favor. I have no sympathy for Crivella or any conservative who gets punished (like the conservative journalist that was also arrested and had to go to hospital after getting hurt in jail).

They’re the ones who rallied behind “Car-Wash” with no criticism and wanted to punish all the corrupt system. Well, they’re the corrupt system now and they will see the consequences of the logic that they validated since far-right “Bolsonarismo” is also increasingly hated by the establishment, even if I think the left had it way worse in 2015-2016.

If you put a bland establishment person from PSDB, DEM or MDB though, they would never face that kind of intimidation, no matter how corrupt they are. Like, look at Michel Temer getting away even with all the evidences against him simply because he was a figure more politically convenient to the elites interests.

If supporters of Bolsonaro made a mea-culpa about their own role in the dystopia we live in, maybe we could have a discussion about political imprisonments but for them it’s only “political” when it’s against someone on their ideologies side. So let them drown in their own tears, I say. Flávio Bolsonaro could be very well next and at this point, I will celebrate it. Destroy these people with the same weapons they used, then we worry about solving this “penal populism” problem.

[Red Velvet]

Mexico, Chile and Costa Rica have started vaccination with Pfizer vaccine. Argentina starts next week.

Meanwhile, despite having similar infrastructure as these four countries, Brazil doesn’t even have a date prediction. São Paulo state governor plan is to start with the Chinese SinoVac in January 25th but federal government has no plan. No deal with Pfizer was announced. They don’t give a damn.

The hate I feel for these people is hard to be described. A mix of incompetents + Anti-vaxxers and sympathizers leading the country and sabotaging it. I can only hope it will come back in their faces somehow, even if the same level of damage they caused is impossible to be matched. Monsters. Murderers.

[Red Velvet]

Argentina’s approval of abortion gives me more hope for the future. It would never pass here in congress, especially under Bolsonaro, but I could see the Supreme Court doing it.

In Uruguay it’s already legal and Chile will soon have a new constitution, in which the topic could be touched on!

Brazil has similar history and backgrounds with these three. Also, in Argentina abortion will be FREE for anyone who looks for it. In Uruguay today I think it’s limited to their own citizens, which doesn’t have that much effect because if you travel there from the exterior, you can’t get it.

I could see this stimulating more tourism of Brazilian pregnant women to see the Iguaçu Falls in the border. And that’s a good thing because it normalizes and weakens the anti-abortion movement.

In 1977, divorce was finally allowed in Brazil because too many people were traveling to Uruguay to get it lmao. I can see it a similar thing happening with abortion.

Argentina really is a great country of trailblazers for Latin America. Love them. I never forget they were the first to allow gay marriage in 2010, opening the door for Brazil and Uruguay to do it in 2013, Colombia in 2016, Ecuador in 2019 and Costa Rica in 2020.

[Red Velvet]

Just like at the start of the pandemic, the city of Manaus (and the Amazonas state as a whole) is seeing another collapse of their health system, with hospitals not being able to attend everyone and people dying in their homes.

Amazonas is home to most of the Amazon rainforest and majority of Indigenous communities in Brazil. Indigenous communities are in grave danger. Unlike what happened to some level in the beginning of the pandemic, people will not be willing to stay home again.

Unfortunately, Amazonas is home to lots of Bolsonaro-friendly politicians who didn’t care about going for even mild safety precautions that could help control the pandemic. Things look very dire for them for the next month or two.

Amazonas encapsules pretty well Brazil’s and Bolsonaro’s failure during the coronavirus because of unwillingness to act. Even if the state tends to be more isolated from the rest of the country and have less infrastructure, there were ways to prevent this. The images coming from there are chilling.

[Red Velvet]

Manaus is trying to import Oxygen from Venezuela because the Brazilian government does nothing. Celebrities are also trying to help by buying oxygen themselves to donate.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jaarreaza/status/1349867243472121857

Thanks to Venezuela for the humanitarian aid!

Situation is the most devastating I’ve seen since the beginning of the pandemic. Shocking images.