Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Mike88]

Datafolha poll on Bolsonaro's job approval:

37% Good/Very good (+5)
34% Bad/Very bad (-10)
27% Average (+4)
  1% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 11 and 12 August 2020. Polled 2,065 voters. MoE of 2.00%.

[buritobr]

Datafolha poll August 2020
Good/Very good, Regular, Bad/Very bad

Total: 37, 27, 34

Men: 42, 29, 29
Women: 33, 26, 39

16-24: 26, 31, 41
25-34: 41, 26, 32
35-44: 45, 26, 29
45-59: 39, 26, 34
60-: 34, 29, 35

Elementary: 40, 31, 27
High School: 36, 29, 34
College: 34, 18, 47

0-2 minimum wages: 35, 33, 31
2-5 minimum wages: 40, 21, 37
5-10 minimum wages: 40, 20, 40
>10 minimum wages: 40, 13, 47

Southeast: 36, 24, 39
South: 42, 26, 31
Northeast: 33, 30, 35
North/Center-west: 42, 31, 25

Metro area: 33, 25, 41
Countryside: 40, 29, 29

White: 40, 23, 36
Brown: 37, 29, 31
Black: 25, 27, 48
Asian: 40, 36, 25


How can 37% support him?
Well, many of the 105K covid deaths in Brazil happened because he didn't support the social distancing, so, it was harder to make it serious. However, the social distancing took place anyway because of the governors and the mayors. Many people are stupid and cannot understand that more people would have died if there was no social distancing. Since many people care more about the job losses than the life losses, they agree with Bolsonaro's speech.
Besides, his approval rates increased in the group of low income people. The R$600 (US$110) monthly transfer to poor people during the pandemic helped to increase the popularity. Many people don't know that this loan was proposed by the opposition and approved in the congress. The administration wanted only a R$200 transfer.

[Hnv1]

Datafolha poll on Bolsonaro's job approval:

37% Good/Very good (+5)
34% Bad/Very bad (-10)
27% Average (+4)
  1% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 11 and 12 August 2020. Polled 2,065 voters. MoE of 2.00%.

how can 37% think he's doing a god job? with the real numbers Brazil was probably hurt worse than the US

[Velasco]

No matter how bad they are, people like Trump or Bolsonaro have always a large number of supporters that buy their product, disregarding truth and objective facts. They hear what they want to hear and that's what their leaders tell to them. You are not going to convince that people with arguments, because they are moved by emotions. I guess the 'remedy' (in case there's any) to far right 'populists' is selling their supporters an alternative product that appeals to the fears and emotions. Possibly some of their supporters are just racist and fanatic, but others are moved by fears caused by events and phenomena beyond their control

[buritobr]

Hot news: Eduardo Bolsonaro's friend, political advisor of Bolsonaro family is in jail!

[CumbrianLefty]

Datafolha poll on Bolsonaro's job approval:

37% Good/Very good (+5)
34% Bad/Very bad (-10)
27% Average (+4)
  1% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 11 and 12 August 2020. Polled 2,065 voters. MoE of 2.00%.

how can 37% think he's doing a god job? with the real numbers Brazil was probably hurt worse than the US

Heh, just noticed this typo

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/24/americas/bolsonaro-threat-punch-reporter-intl-scli/index.html

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been captured on camera threatening to punch a reporter in the face, after being asked about alleged family corruption.

Bolsonaro, who was visiting the Metropolitan Cathedral in Brasilia on Sunday when a group of journalists met him outside, was seen on video threatening the O Globo newspaper reporter after being questioned about the allegations.

The journalist was seeking comment from the President over alleged deposits made by a former aide of Bolsonaro's eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, into a bank account supposedly belonging to first lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

President Bolsonaro was standing just steps from the Cathedral and told the reporter, "I feel like punching you in your mouth, okay?"

When CNN asked President Bolsonaro's office about Sunday's incident, his spokesperson refused to comment.

Well, that's just charming.

[buritobr]

Yes, some pundits believed that Bolsonaro became more moderate after the arrest of Queiroz, but no

[brucejoel99]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/24/americas/bolsonaro-threat-punch-reporter-intl-scli/index.html

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been captured on camera threatening to punch a reporter in the face, after being asked about alleged family corruption.

Bolsonaro, who was visiting the Metropolitan Cathedral in Brasilia on Sunday when a group of journalists met him outside, was seen on video threatening the O Globo newspaper reporter after being questioned about the allegations.

The journalist was seeking comment from the President over alleged deposits made by a former aide of Bolsonaro's eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, into a bank account supposedly belonging to first lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

President Bolsonaro was standing just steps from the Cathedral and told the reporter, "I feel like punching you in your mouth, okay?"

When CNN asked President Bolsonaro's office about Sunday's incident, his spokesperson refused to comment.

Well, that's just charming.

Him & Trump have just been competing this whole time to see who could look the most ridiculous during a global pandemic, haven't they?

[CumbrianLefty]

With an honourable mention for Johnson.

[buritobr]

There is a ongoing dispute inside Bolsonaro's administration.

Concerning economics, Bolsonaro is an exception in the group of the world far-right leaders. He is the only one who supports free-market fundamentalism, unlike Donald Trump, Mateusz Morawiecki, Viktor Orbán, Rodrigo Duterte, Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini, who support economic nationalism and a social safety net, in order to make them more attractive to low-income voters than center-right leaders.
The Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes had a PhD in Chicago in the 1970s and has the Pinochet's Chicago Boys as the model.
Actually, Bolsonaro has no own ideas about economics. His mind is a blank paper sheet. In the 1990s, he supported economic nationalism and criticized privatizations conducted by Fernando Henrique Cardoso administration, because many generals supported right-wing economic nationalism and the Brazilian military dictatorship (1964-1985), unlike the Chilean military dictatorship, conducted a state-led capitalist development. But recently, Bolsonaro converted to free-market fundamentalism because of this guru Olavo de Carvalho and because of businessmen who support him.
However, some supporters of Bolsonaro in the congress are not satisfied with Guedes' austerity. Paulo Guedes wants to keep the (stupid) constitutional spending ceiling, created during Temer administration. The congressmen who support Bolsonaro want to increase public investiment so that Bolsonaro can be reelected in 2022.
We still don't know which side Bolsonaro will support.
The mainstream media, which is pro center-right PSDB, some weeks ago, was on the same side of the left, criticizing Bolsonaro because of his mismanagement of the pandemics and mismanagement of the environment. Now, mainstream media, unlike the left, is criticizing Bolsonaro for not being fiscal conservative enough.

[buritobr]

STJ (the federal court which is one level below STF, the Supreme Court) decided that governor of Rio de Janeiro Wilson Witzel should be ousted because of corruption related to the purchase of equipments to hospitals for covid treatment. Pastor Everaldo, president of Witzel's party, was arrested because of this scandal. Witzel is a former Bolsonaro's ally who became an enemy, Everaldo did Bolsonaro's evangelic baptism.
There are lots of evidence of this corruption scandal. However, there was no reason for the justice to decide that the governor should be ousted. There is already an ongoing impeachment process in the State Assembly. It is possible that some judge of the STJ is trying to please Bolsonaro in order to get his appointment to the Supreme Court.

[buritobr]

When venezuelans make big lines to buy basic food, this hunger is usually related to "socialism"

In this week, a package of 5 kg of rice, the most basic food in Brazil, is costing R$40 (=US$7.50) in the supermarkets in Brazil. This increase in the price happened because of the fall of producion in other exporting countries, and, so, the international price increased. The rise in the international price was transmited to the domestic market because of the end of the stocks policy. So, there is socialist hunger, but there is free-market hunger too.

[Mike88]

When venezuelans make big lines to buy basic food, this hunger is usually related to "socialism"

In this week, a package of 5 kg of rice, the most basic food in Brazil, is costing R$40 (=US$7.50) in the supermarkets in Brazil. This increase in the price happened because of the fall of producion in other exporting countries, and, so, the international price increased. The rise in the international price was transmited to the domestic market because of the end of the stocks policy. So, there is socialist hunger, but there is free-market hunger too.

Yikes, how much did inflation grew? 20%?

[buritobr]

Inflation is still very low because of the low economic activity. The inflation of the year 2020 until July is 0.46%. The accumulated inflation in the last 12 months is 2.31%. But of course the rise of the food price in September will push the inflation, specially for the lower class, whose share of food in the total household budget is bigger.

[buritobr]

One issue that became a conversation topic in Brazil this week was the interview of the famous singer Caetano Veloso in a talk show.
He told that during a long time of his life he was a liberal. He was exiled during the military dictatorship (1964-1985) becaue he was anti-authoritarism and not because he was a radical leftist. But recently, when he met the young communist youtuber Jones Manoel, fan of the italian historian Domenico Losurdo, Caetano Veloso discovered many hipocrisies of liberalism and started to have more sympaties to marxism. He realized how absurd it is to put Hitler and Stalin at the same level (what many liberals do), but of course, Caetano didn't become a Stalin's fan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSuSAaO5c80&t=1s

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro's speech at the UN Assembly: no surprises, all this sh**t we have already expected, the target audience was neither the international community nor the brazilian people, but only his cattle

[buritobr]

Ibope Poll September 20th
Evaluation of Bolsonaro administration
40% good, very good
29% regular
29% bad, very bad

[Mike88]

One question: How can we assess, by the local election results in November, if Bolsonaro is really popular and rallying his base? His party isn't registered yet, right? And he doesn't have no more ties with the PSL, right?. Or should we look at the results for the junior parties in his coaltion: PSD, PSC, PP and others?

[PSOL]

Ibope Poll September 20th
Evaluation of Bolsonaro administration
40% good, very good
29% regular
29% bad, very bad

Well this seems like a major improvement for Bolsonaro, no?

[buritobr]

One question: How can we assess, by the local election results in November, if Bolsonaro is really popular and rallying his base? His party isn't registered yet, right? And he doesn't have no more ties with the PSL, right?. Or should we look at the results for the junior parties in his coaltion: PSD, PSC, PP and others?

Bolsonaro has no party, but most of the PSL candidates are his allies yet. In São Paulo, you should look the results of Celso Russomano. In Rio de Janeiro, you should look the results of Marcelo Crivella. Both are members of "Republicanos", a party of one of the biggest evangelic church, which is Bolsonaro's ally. Other parties that are Bolsonaro's allies are PSD, PSC, PP, as you mentioned, and NOVO, Patriota and Republicanos.

[buritobr]

Ibope Poll September 20th
Evaluation of Bolsonaro administration
40% good, very good
29% regular
29% bad, very bad

Well this seems like a major improvement for Bolsonaro, no?

Yes, major improvement. The number of cases and deaths are declining, so, the pandemic is not the most important issue anymore. And many low-income people became satisfied with the R$600 monthly check during the pandemic. They don't know that this value was proposed by the opposition.

[Red Velvet]

One question: How can we assess, by the local election results in November, if Bolsonaro is really popular and rallying his base? His party isn't registered yet, right? And he doesn't have no more ties with the PSL, right?. Or should we look at the results for the junior parties in his coaltion: PSD, PSC, PP and others?

Bolsonaro is going to support candidates that are alligned with him, from multiple parties. For example, in Rio it’s likely his base will be inherited by incumbent Crivella (if he’s allowed to run and keeps his political rights). In São Paulo that person could be Russomano. Not sure about other cities yet, election campaigns start late here and usually last only 1 or 1.5 months.

Best way is probably looking at each State capital results to see how many of these people had Bolsonaro or his base’s blessing and support.

[PSOL]

So is PSOL (lol) going to go anywhere in the upcoming federal election?

Also, can any Brazilian poster please tell me the difference between PSB, PMDB, and the other marginal , officially social democratic parties? I’m confused as to how such a fractured environment upon third way blairite parties exists. Also the green parties pls

[Red Velvet]

So is PSOL (lol) going to go anywhere in the upcoming federal election?

Also, can any Brazilian poster please tell me the difference between PSB, PMDB, and the other marginal , officially social democratic parties? I’m confused as to how such a fractured environment upon third way blairite parties exists. Also the green parties pls

PMDB (now MDB) = Big tent party that isn’t much defined by ideology. It’s probably the party people think when you think of a bland establishment politician. MDB usually supports whoever is in power so they can have influence. It was part of FHC PSDB government in the 90s but then it was also part of Lula and Dilma’s PT government until Temer assumed.

PSB = Center-left party, although not usually considered “as left” as PT/PCdoB/PSOL. It’s probably best compared to PDT, the other center-left party (who ran Ciro Gomes in 2018 for president). Didn’t support anyone in 2018 due to PDT vs PT conflict but now they have a deal with PDT for the municipal elections where one will support the other depending who is stronger on each city.

REDE (Sustainability Network)= Brazil’s environmental party, ran Marina Silva on 2018. There’s also another Green Party (PV) but they don’t have the same reputation of caring about environment since Marina is probably the biggest “authority” in the country when it comes to that subject. REDE is kinda center-leftish, is in the PDT and PSB deal too but it’s not as “loyal” (REDE will run a candidate in Rio, which already had a PDT one).

PSDB = Despite the Social-Democratic in the name, it’s a Center-Right party that used to be in the top 2 biggest parties, always rivaling with PT. But they kinda had a small collapse post-2014 and their base evaporated, they radicalized and voted for Bolsonaro in their desperation to take PT out of power. Only relevant name they have nowadays is probably the Governor of São Paulo, João Doria. Doria supported Bolsonaro for president in 2018 to get elected but now they’re against each other since Doria has ambitions to run in the future.

PSD = Fisiological party that doesn’t have a defined ideology but it’s center-right leaning. Parties name mean nothing in Brazil, so don’t assume anything from the social-democracy in their name. PSD politicians (along with many other parties) are just there for the sake of using the balance of power in their favor. If president gives them special favors, they will support the president and if he doesn’t they will be against him. This group of fisiological parties is called “Centrão” around here and because it’s impossible for any president from any ideology to achieve a majority without this group of fisiological parties, they always manage to have A LOT of influence into the government.

Dilma was impeached because she lost the support of “Centrão” in congress after she refused to help the ex-president of congress with his justice problems. Bolsonaro, knowing that it’s the support of centrão that decides your fate regardless of what you do, started getting much closer to that group after weakening signs of his government in the start of the pandemic. Now he looks more stable because he is giving them favors.

Problem of “Centrão” is that they’re necessary for presidents to have governance but the price paid is very high. And if you don’t attend them, they can suddenly turn against you. It’s a problem of having TOO many different parties. I think around 6 or 7 would be the ideal to end these fisiological ones and force parties to actually be for something.