Elizabeth Warren 2020 campaign megathread

[jacobmeteorite]

Warren's 2020 path: college-educated whites + women + liberals + sizeable chunks of black, latinx & asian liberals

In practice, this would look like winning IA & NV in February, then winning states with high college-educated + liberal primary voters like MA, CA, CO, VA, NC & TX. I'd write-off deep south states like AR & AL to Biden, and rural northern/western states like VT & ME to Sanders.

I don't have evidence based on polling or whatever, but I'd speculate that the Democratic electorate of 2020 looks more college-educated, more liberal and more nonwhite than it did in 2016, which could benefit Warren.

I like how you think! I agree with everything you just said.

[TDAS04]

I’m guessing that Warren will be the nominee.  Somewhat of a hunch, but she just seems like such a compromise between the establishment and the progressive wings, and the Hillary folks seem to like her.  Warren is also running a good campaign, and while she’s kinda old, she’s considerably less so than Biden or Sanders.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m guessing that Warren will be the nominee.  Somewhat of a hunch, but she just seems like such a compromise between the establishment and the progressive wings, and the Hillary folks seem to like her.  Warren is also running a good campaign, and while she’s kinda old, she’s considerably less so than Biden or Sanders.

Had hope that we could get the old white dudes out early and have a Harris v. Warren primary but Harris will just never penetrate Biden's hold on black voters. It's just not going to happen. If the busing thing couldn't do it NOTHING will. The electorate just doesn't have time for petty attacks when they are not far apart on policy. Warren v. Biden makes sense because Warren is more palatable to white women than Bernie, and she can draw a clear ideological difference without getting too nasty.

Warren is looking like the only one who can build the coalition to block Biden.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I’m guessing that Warren will be the nominee.  Somewhat of a hunch, but she just seems like such a compromise between the establishment and the progressive wings, and the Hillary folks seem to like her.  Warren is also running a good campaign, and while she’s kinda old, she’s considerably less so than Biden or Sanders.

Had hope that we could get the old white dudes out early and have a Harris v. Warren primary but Harris will just never penetrate Biden's hold on black voters. It's just not going to happen. If the busing thing couldn't do it NOTHING will. The electorate just doesn't have time for petty attacks when they are not far apart on policy. Warren v. Biden makes sense because Warren is more palatable to white women than Bernie, and she can draw a clear ideological difference without getting too nasty.

Warren is looking like the only one who can build the coalition to block Biden.

The busing thing was the wrong approach if Harris wants to make inroads with black voters.  She needs to challenge Biden on his presumed "electability"--argue that's he too old, he's been in Washington too long, and he's compromised himself by cashing in with speaking fees and other shady dealings.  That's the kind of attack that will resonate with black voters--they don't give a damn about busing.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think any candidate can break Biden's hold on black voters. Black voters tend to be a bit more moderate, vote a lot based on trust & trust the establishment a lot, and don't want to experiment as much with the system. Young black voters seem to be more liberal and experimental, but they are far eclipsed by older black voters.

I still think Warren will end up beating Biden in the primary. She has the energy behind her, should be able to build momentum from the Iowa & NH wins, and Biden's age & slowing down is eventually going to be a really big concern for voters.


Right now I'm rooting for Biden as the nominee, though. He impressed me in the last debate. As long as he still has fight in him, he should be a good nominee and will make a good President.

[henster]

I’m guessing that Warren will be the nominee.  Somewhat of a hunch, but she just seems like such a compromise between the establishment and the progressive wings, and the Hillary folks seem to like her.  Warren is also running a good campaign, and while she’s kinda old, she’s considerably less so than Biden or Sanders.

Had hope that we could get the old white dudes out early and have a Harris v. Warren primary but Harris will just never penetrate Biden's hold on black voters. It's just not going to happen. If the busing thing couldn't do it NOTHING will. The electorate just doesn't have time for petty attacks when they are not far apart on policy. Warren v. Biden makes sense because Warren is more palatable to white women than Bernie, and she can draw a clear ideological difference without getting too nasty.

Warren is looking like the only one who can build the coalition to block Biden.

The busing thing was the wrong approach if Harris wants to make inroads with black voters.  She needs to challenge Biden on his presumed "electability"--argue that's he too old, he's been in Washington too long, and he's compromised himself by cashing in with speaking fees and other shady dealings.  That's the kind of attack that will resonate with black voters--they don't give a damn about busing.

There is some stuff about abortion that he could be hit on that could resonate with black women. Anita Hill is also another avenue and you could tie that into the whole abortion debate with Clarence Thomas being against Roe. I really think Warren should go after Biden on wanting to cut Social Security rather than bankruptcy stuff which voters won't understand. His base is mostly older and Biden wanting to cut SS would resonate.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m guessing that Warren will be the nominee.  Somewhat of a hunch, but she just seems like such a compromise between the establishment and the progressive wings, and the Hillary folks seem to like her.  Warren is also running a good campaign, and while she’s kinda old, she’s considerably less so than Biden or Sanders.

Had hope that we could get the old white dudes out early and have a Harris v. Warren primary but Harris will just never penetrate Biden's hold on black voters. It's just not going to happen. If the busing thing couldn't do it NOTHING will. The electorate just doesn't have time for petty attacks when they are not far apart on policy. Warren v. Biden makes sense because Warren is more palatable to white women than Bernie, and she can draw a clear ideological difference without getting too nasty.

Warren is looking like the only one who can build the coalition to block Biden.

The busing thing was the wrong approach if Harris wants to make inroads with black voters.  She needs to challenge Biden on his presumed "electability"--argue that's he too old, he's been in Washington too long, and he's compromised himself by cashing in with speaking fees and other shady dealings.  That's the kind of attack that will resonate with black voters--they don't give a damn about busing.

Biden’s time in Washington is a strength with black Democratic primary voters. Everything you listed was stuff that Bernie hit Hillary with. She still won black Southerners 85-15. Harris is toast.

[Bidenworth2020]

I think it is honestly just cringe watching all these white liberals complain about Biden's record on criminal justice (a valid attack IMO) way more than black people despite being almost never affected by it.

PS- Respect to RFKfan for distinguishing between what you want people to believe and what they actually believe. He gets it.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I think it is honestly just cringe watching all these white liberals complain about Biden's record on criminal justice (a valid attack IMO) way more than black people despite being almost never affected by it.

PS- Respect to RFKfan for distinguishing between what you want people to believe and what they actually believe. He gets it.

I don't think you care to learn the details of my personal life, but me and my family have been affected by the broken criminal justice system and while black people are victim to systematic biases in the justice system, these are problems that affect people of every race.  A member of my family, who happens to be disabled, was recently sent to jail for just over a month and a half and is still battling legal cases to prevent being re-incarcerated, which is common, because once you are in the system it is extremely difficult to get out.  And when you go to Virginia Beach jail, believe me, you find people of all races who are housed there.

[Bidenworth2020]

I think it is honestly just cringe watching all these white liberals complain about Biden's record on criminal justice (a valid attack IMO) way more than black people despite being almost never affected by it.

PS- Respect to RFKfan for distinguishing between what you want people to believe and what they actually believe. He gets it.

I don't think you care to learn the details of my personal life, but me and my family have been affected by the broken criminal justice system and while black people are victim to systematic biases in the justice system, these are problems that affect people of every race.  A member of my family, who happens to be disabled, was recently sent to jail for just over a month and a half and is still battling legal cases to prevent being re-incarcerated, which is common, because once you are in the system it is extremely difficult to get out.  And when you go to Virginia Beach jail, believe me, you find people of all races who are housed there.

I am sorry to hear that, and I was, maybe unfairly, generalizing the forum's demographics. From what I have seen, the forum is largely white, male, and living in affluent areas. I was in no way trying to minimize these issues either, but rather talking from a purely strategic standpoint. I apologize for any confusion.

[Mr. Smith]

I’m guessing that Warren will be the nominee.  Somewhat of a hunch, but she just seems like such a compromise between the establishment and the progressive wings, and the Hillary folks seem to like her.  Warren is also running a good campaign, and while she’s kinda old, she’s considerably less so than Biden or Sanders.

Had hope that we could get the old white dudes out early and have a Harris v. Warren primary but Harris will just never penetrate Biden's hold on black voters. It's just not going to happen. If the busing thing couldn't do it NOTHING will. The electorate just doesn't have time for petty attacks when they are not far apart on policy. Warren v. Biden makes sense because Warren is more palatable to white women than Bernie, and she can draw a clear ideological difference without getting too nasty.

Warren is looking like the only one who can build the coalition to block Biden.

The busing thing was the wrong approach if Harris wants to make inroads with black voters.  She needs to challenge Biden on his presumed "electability"--argue that's he too old, he's been in Washington too long, and he's compromised himself by cashing in with speaking fees and other shady dealings.  That's the kind of attack that will resonate with black voters--they don't give a damn about busing.

Biden’s time in Washington is a strength with black Democratic primary voters. Everything you listed was stuff that Bernie hit Hillary with. She still won black Southerners 85-15. Harris is toast.

Devil's Advocate: Sanders didn't really contest The South or make the same effort. Harris is doing her homework in that area.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I’m guessing that Warren will be the nominee.  Somewhat of a hunch, but she just seems like such a compromise between the establishment and the progressive wings, and the Hillary folks seem to like her.  Warren is also running a good campaign, and while she’s kinda old, she’s considerably less so than Biden or Sanders.

Had hope that we could get the old white dudes out early and have a Harris v. Warren primary but Harris will just never penetrate Biden's hold on black voters. It's just not going to happen. If the busing thing couldn't do it NOTHING will. The electorate just doesn't have time for petty attacks when they are not far apart on policy. Warren v. Biden makes sense because Warren is more palatable to white women than Bernie, and she can draw a clear ideological difference without getting too nasty.

Warren is looking like the only one who can build the coalition to block Biden.

The busing thing was the wrong approach if Harris wants to make inroads with black voters.  She needs to challenge Biden on his presumed "electability"--argue that's he too old, he's been in Washington too long, and he's compromised himself by cashing in with speaking fees and other shady dealings.  That's the kind of attack that will resonate with black voters--they don't give a damn about busing.

Biden’s time in Washington is a strength with black Democratic primary voters. Everything you listed was stuff that Bernie hit Hillary with. She still won black Southerners 85-15. Harris is toast.

Sanders always portrayed himself as an enemy of the Democratic party establishment, and yes, that is anathema to black voters.  My point is that Harris should make the case that she's the better representative of the party establishment--all the institutional expertise and support Biden has without the long, long, long history of compromises and triangulation.  Basically, she should argue that she's Biden without the decades of baggage.  That's a message that has potential to win over black voters.

[GP270watch]

Profile piece on how Warren's life as a teacher informs her politics and campaigning.

Elizabeth Warren’s Classroom Strategy

Warren has won multiple teaching awards, and when I first profiled her in 2011, early in her Senate run and during what would be her last semester of teaching at Harvard, I spoke to students who were so over the moon about her that my editors decided I could not use many of their quotes because they were simply too laudatory. Many former students I interviewed for this story spoke in similarly soaring terms. One, Jonas Blank, described her as “patient and plainspoken, like an elementary-school teacher is expected to be, but also intense and sharp the way a law professor is supposed to be.” Several former students who are now (and were then) Republicans declined to talk to me on the record precisely because they liked her so much and did not want to contribute to furthering her political prospects by speaking warmly of her.

I don’t get up and teach to show how smart I am. I get up and teach to show how smart you are, to help you have the power and the tools so that you can build what you want to build.

[henster]

I’m guessing that Warren will be the nominee.  Somewhat of a hunch, but she just seems like such a compromise between the establishment and the progressive wings, and the Hillary folks seem to like her.  Warren is also running a good campaign, and while she’s kinda old, she’s considerably less so than Biden or Sanders.

Had hope that we could get the old white dudes out early and have a Harris v. Warren primary but Harris will just never penetrate Biden's hold on black voters. It's just not going to happen. If the busing thing couldn't do it NOTHING will. The electorate just doesn't have time for petty attacks when they are not far apart on policy. Warren v. Biden makes sense because Warren is more palatable to white women than Bernie, and she can draw a clear ideological difference without getting too nasty.

Warren is looking like the only one who can build the coalition to block Biden.

The busing thing was the wrong approach if Harris wants to make inroads with black voters.  She needs to challenge Biden on his presumed "electability"--argue that's he too old, he's been in Washington too long, and he's compromised himself by cashing in with speaking fees and other shady dealings.  That's the kind of attack that will resonate with black voters--they don't give a damn about busing.

Biden’s time in Washington is a strength with black Democratic primary voters. Everything you listed was stuff that Bernie hit Hillary with. She still won black Southerners 85-15. Harris is toast.

Sanders always portrayed himself as an enemy of the Democratic party establishment, and yes, that is anathema to black voters.  My point is that Harris should make the case that she's the better representative of the party establishment--all the institutional expertise and support Biden has without the long, long, long history of compromises and triangulation.  Basically, she should argue that she's Biden without the decades of baggage.  That's a message that has potential to win over black voters.

That is kind of inside the baseball argument, you can't really make in a debate. She needs to make him look less electable and that's by attacking him in the debates. Making him look weak and frail while she runs circles around him on stage is her best strategy.

[soundchaser]

Profile piece on how Warren's life as a teacher informs her politics and campaigning.

This is a fantastic, extraordinarily thorough article that I think really hits at why Warren is connecting with so many people on the trail, and why I think she could run away with the nomination once she's in a more intimate environment than the first two debates. She's going to clean up in any town hall setting.

[OkThen]

She has a new plan out today, with this one focusing on investing in rural America. This includes a public option for broadband internet.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1159079290786451456?s=20

[Pericles]

This figure is pretty interesting, albeit from Emerson but it doesn't seem junky.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forget-lanes-the-democratic-primary-is-a-whole-freaking-transit-system/

Of the top 4 Warren has the greatest ability it seems to appeal to different factions, Biden and Sanders have more concentrated support and Harris' support leans to the establishment wing too. It's quite interesting how a majority of Warren's supporters don't actually come from the Sanders 2016 vote but rather the Hillary 2016 vote, which goes a bit against her image. Buttigieg has a similar dynamic to Warren and actually his support is more from the Sanders vote, but making judgements from his lower numbers may be less reliable. This also doesn't include those who didn't vote in the 2016 Democratic primary, data on those voters would be interesting.

[SInNYC]

Its interesting that female and establishment candidates (exception: Gabbard) are drawing their support from Hillary voters while the outsiders are drawing their support from Bernie voters. This also agrees with the D party line, which seems to be emphasizing diversity but really hates Gabbard.

Idealogy isn't much of a factor, as both Harris and Warren get Hillary voters, while Buttigieg, Beto,  Yang, and Gabbard get Bernie supporters. Its a small factor though since Warren does better than other females/establishment in getting Bernie'16 voters.

[jacobmeteorite]

I'm SO HAPPY Elizabeth is attending the Native American Forum. I was nervous her team wasn't going to make it happen: https://newsmaven.io/indiancountrytoday/news/senators-warren-and-klobuchar-join-native-american-presidential-forum-0IX3zMW8Ik-hp3G-ciAscQ/

Trump is starting to focus on lumping Elizabeth with Bernie and the socialist label. I'm wondering if that's because he's noticing that the Pocahontas label is going nowhere with the media. How do you guys think this will play out?

The fact that she has Deb Halland's endorsement really gives Elizabeth a lot of credibility on Native issues, although it's still a controversial endorsement among some Native communities and activists. She also has a tight relationship with Jefferson Keel, the President of the National Congress of American Indians. I'll bet tribal leaders will start to endorse Warren in the coming months.

Do you think having those endorsements will help counteract GOP and Trump talking points on her DNA test and heritage claims?

[Rookie Yinzer]

It's quite interesting how a majority of Warren's supporters don't actually come from the Sanders 2016 vote but rather the Hillary 2016 vote, which goes a bit against her image.

There were plenty of progressive Hillary 2016 voters. She built up many years of goodwill and Bernie was just unlikable and showed animus to the party he was running to be the leader of.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

It's quite interesting how a majority of Warren's supporters don't actually come from the Sanders 2016 vote but rather the Hillary 2016 vote, which goes a bit against her image.

There were plenty of progressive Hillary 2016 voters. She built up many years of goodwill and Bernie was just unlikable and showed animus to the party he was running to be the leader of.

I've never understood this line of reasoning. The Republicans (as well as most modern political parties) figured out a while back that ideological coherence is a better to galvanize folks to win elections for you. A party's first job should be to determine the best candidates for the job, in spite of whatever the "party" feels.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It's quite interesting how a majority of Warren's supporters don't actually come from the Sanders 2016 vote but rather the Hillary 2016 vote, which goes a bit against her image.

There were plenty of progressive Hillary 2016 voters. She built up many years of goodwill and Bernie was just unlikable and showed animus to the party he was running to be the leader of.

I've never understood this line of reasoning. The Republicans (as well as most modern political parties) figured out a while back that ideological coherence is a better to galvanize folks to win elections for you. A party's first job should be to determine the best candidates for the job, in spite of whatever the "party" feels.

The Democratic Party is home to groups that have been historically disenfranchised in America. They want consistency, security, and a track record of getting things done. The Republican Party is full of reactionary white grievance voters who want to burn the system down. Elizabeth Warren strikes the balance of being a revolutionary with being a party stalwart very well. It may not be enough to take down Biden but she will give him a run for his money down the stretch.

[Bidenworth2020]

It's quite interesting how a majority of Warren's supporters don't actually come from the Sanders 2016 vote but rather the Hillary 2016 vote, which goes a bit against her image.

There were plenty of progressive Hillary 2016 voters. She built up many years of goodwill and Bernie was just unlikable and showed animus to the party he was running to be the leader of.

I've never understood this line of reasoning. The Republicans (as well as most modern political parties) figured out a while back that ideological coherence is a better to galvanize folks to win elections for you. A party's first job should be to determine the best candidates for the job, in spite of whatever the "party" feels.

The Democratic Party is home to groups that have been historically disenfranchised in America. They want consistency, security, and a track record of getting things done. The Republican Party is full of reactionary white grievance voters who want to burn the system down. Elizabeth Warren strikes the balance of being a revolutionary with being a party stalwart very well. It may not be enough to take down Biden but she will give him a run for his money down the stretch.

This, and I would add that she is the only one who can give him a run for his money down the stretch, especially with minorities. Not Harris, and especially not Bernie.

[Elcaspar]

This, and I would add that she is the only one who can give him a run for his money down the stretch, especially with minorities. Not Harris, and especially not Bernie.

Because we are certainly to assume that Bernie's support amongst these groups cannot improve compared to last time.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's quite interesting how a majority of Warren's supporters don't actually come from the Sanders 2016 vote but rather the Hillary 2016 vote, which goes a bit against her image.

There were plenty of progressive Hillary 2016 voters. She built up many years of goodwill and Bernie was just unlikable and showed animus to the party he was running to be the leader of.

I've never understood this line of reasoning. The Republicans (as well as most modern political parties) figured out a while back that ideological coherence is a better to galvanize folks to win elections for you. A party's first job should be to determine the best candidates for the job, in spite of whatever the "party" feels.

The Democratic Party is home to groups that have been historically disenfranchised in America. They want consistency, security, and a track record of getting things done. The Republican Party is full of reactionary white grievance voters who want to burn the system down. Elizabeth Warren strikes the balance of being a revolutionary with being a party stalwart very well. It may not be enough to take down Biden but she will give him a run for his money down the stretch.

Moreover, party rule changes have simply made it easier for a liberal insurgent to win. The only thing preventing Warren from very clearly having a shot at Biden is the fragmented field. As people drop out, though, she will likely become that insurgent candidate and unless Biden can find a way to pick off a fraction of the liberal base it just seems particularly tough to stop her monentum.