Final Predictions!

[Sam Spade]

Are there any other candidates on the New York ballot?  If so, the usual questions - who, why, and how will they do?

Other than Ognibene, not any ones I know of who could pull a couple of percent.

My prediction will come Monday, along with Tweed's.

[Sam Spade]

Prediction to come Monday!                                                         Prediction to come Monday!                                                                Hubbah, Hubbah, Hubbah!                                                                          For friendly purposes only.                                                                          Not wagering purposes.

[Sam Spade]

My final predictions:

First, the easy race...

NYC Mayor

Poor Freddy, he never had a chance.  I wouldn't have voted for him anyway.  The question here is not whether Bloomberg will win, but how much he will win by.

Bloomberg - 66.5%
Ferrer - 30.3%
Other - 3.2%

MOE +/- 3%

NJ Governor

I debated long and hard about this, considering the late-breaking nature of New Jersey's fickle Independent voters.  With the last Marist, SUSA and Rasmussen polls, I feel more confident now. So, I am now solidifying around the prediction I made at the beginning of the campaign, with a larger margin of error because, as I always say, it is New Jersey and things have been known to change at a drop of the hat in the polling booth.

Corzine - 51.9%
Forrester - 46.8%
Other - 1.3%

MOE +/- 4%

VA Governor

The toughest race of all to call.  As you know, a couple of weeks ago I predicted a 4-point Kilgore win.  However, since that time it has been pretty apparent that Kaine is gaining momentum, whereas Kilgore seems stuck around 45%.

Yet there are, at the same time, a few factors which underscore a prediction.  Historically, polling companies underpoll Republicans by about 2%-3%, because they overpoll Fairfax/NoVA and underpoll the mountain areas.  In a close race like this, it is always quite possible that Potts voters might return to their party if they believe the race is close (the Nader factor, I call it)  At the same time, Kilgore has Bush coming in a last-minute campaign stop, something which could mean any number of things.

Virginia has not elected a governor of the same party as the President since 1973.  My prediction will now have that record holding until 2009.

Kaine - 49.3%
Kilgore - 47.8%
Potts - 2.4%
Other - 0.3%

MOE +/- 3.5%, given some of the latest volatility of the polling in the race.