Final Predictions!

[TheresNoMoney]

Don't let that 1% keep you up at night, Phil!!!

[Keystone Phil]

Don't let that 1% keep you up at night, Phil!!!

You continue to act like a child and refuse to admit you're wrong. So mature. Just answer me this, Scoonie - Are there any other third party candidates on the ballot in the 2005 Virginia Gubernatorial election besides Ross Potts?

[Moooooo]

rofl. 

[Cashcow]

Virginia
Kilgore              51
Kaine                49

New Jersey
Forrester          49.6
Corzine             49.4

NYC
Bloomberg        58
Ferrer               42

Have you ever, in the history of your posts, including maps, predicted a Democratic victory?

[YRABNNRM]

Virginia
Kilgore              51
Kaine                49

New Jersey
Forrester          49.6
Corzine             49.4

NYC
Bloomberg        58
Ferrer               42

Have you ever, in the history of your posts, including maps, predicted a Democratic victory?

What's a democratic victory?

[Cashcow]

dem·o·crat·ic    ( P )  Pronunciation Key  (dm-krtk)
adj.

   1. Of, characterized by, or advocating democracy: democratic government; a democratic union.
   2. Of or for the people in general; popular: a democratic movement; democratic art forms.
   3. Believing in or practicing social equality: “a proper democratic scorn for bloated dukes and lords” (George du Maurier).
   4. Democratic Of, relating to, or characteristic of the Democratic Party.

[YRABNNRM]

dem·o·crat·ic    ( P )  Pronunciation Key  (dm-krtk)
adj.

   1. Of, characterized by, or advocating democracy: democratic government; a democratic union.
   2. Of or for the people in general; popular: a democratic movement; democratic art forms.
   3. Believing in or practicing social equality: “a proper democratic scorn for bloated dukes and lords” (George du Maurier).
   4. Democratic Of, relating to, or characteristic of the Democratic Party.

Democratic Party? Who are they?

[Keystone Phil]

NJ Gubernatorial Race

Jon Corzine - 52%
Doug Forrester - 47%
Other - 1%


VA Gubernatorial Race

Jerry Kilgore - 49%
Tim Kaine - 47%
Russ Potts - 4%


NYC Mayoral Race

Mike Bloomberg - 63%
Fernando Ferrer - 36%
Other - 1%


Commentary

NJ Gubernatorial Race - While the Corzine's margins are shrinking, I think he'll come out on top in this race. Forrester's campaign might be able to rebound with the help of tomorrow's debate. The amount of times I have seen Forrester ads has increased over the days, too. However, it will likely be too late for a comeback.

VA Gubernatorial Race - Kaine's lead has shrunk and it will come down to turnout. I think Kilgore's crew will have the better ground team.

NYC Mayoral Race - I don't know how he was able to turn the race around but he has. A few months ago it looked like Bloomberg was finished but now he is insanely popular. I don't like Bloomberg but I have to admire the way he has survived this threat. Another four years of GOP control of the Mayor's office in America's most Democratic city.

[ATFFL]

Phil:  I would have given you money if you had left 1% out of one or more of the races.

[Sam Spade]

Prediction to come Monday!                                                         Prediction to come Monday!                                                                Hubbah, Hubbah, Hubbah!                                                                          For friendly purposes only.                                                                          Not wagering purposes.

[Defarge]

Westchester County Races
I volunteered for Tony Castro, so I am emotionally invested in his race

County Executive
Andy Spano (D) - 58%
Rob Astorino (R) - 42%

District Attorney
Tony Castro (D) - 52%
Janet Difiore (R) - 48%

County Clerk
Tim Idoni (D) - 56%
Somethingorother DOugherty (R) - 44%

[Platypus]

NJ
Corzine 51
Forrester 48

VA
Kaine 51
Kilgore 47
Potts 2

NYC
Bloomberg 58
...the other guy 40

[Smash255]

NJ Gov
D-Corzine 53%
R- Forrster 44%
Others 3%

VA Gov
D-Kaine 50%
R-Kilgore 47%
I-Potts 3%

NYC mayor
R-Bloomberg 62%
D-Ferrer 36%
Others 2%

for kicks Nassau County Executive
D-Suozzi 61%
R-Peterson 35%
C- Bruno 4%

will add some more on my local races.  All county wide incumbents win, but the DA race is quite close

R-Dillon 52%
D-Rice 48%

14th L.D (my district)
D-Mejias 54%
$- Sabellico 46%

All incumbent Dems in the Leg win, improve their majority to 11-8 with a loss by Ford to Solomon.  Possible that they could stretch their majority to 12-7 with a Mirza win (race will be close) or even 13-6 with a Clarke win over Dunne (unlikley, but possible).

Most likley Nassau leg will be 11-8 Dem (10-9 now) with a decent chance of it being 12-7 Dem

[MHS2002]

New Jersey Governor:
(D) Corzine: 53
(R) Forrester: 47

Virginia Governor:
(R) Kilgore: 50
(D) Kaine: 48
(I) Potts: 2

Virginia Lt. Governor:
(R) Bolling: 54
(D) Byrne: 46

Virginia Attorney General:
(R) McDonnell: 51
(D) Deeds: 49

New York Mayor
(R) Bloomberg: 65
(D) The other person: 35

[True Democrat]

I'll make my prediction now.  It's probably really wrong, but here it goes:

Virginia Governor:
Kaine: 49%
Kilgore: 47%
Potts: 3%
Others: 1%

New Jersey Governor:
Corzine: 53%
Forrester: 46%

I wish it weren't true.

New York Mayor:

Bloomberg: 63%
Ferrer: 36%

[WalterMitty]

for all of those predicting a kilgore victory...i have one question.

from what ive seen of the polls, kilgore is down big time in nova.  how do you think he is going win statewide if he loses by 10+ points in nova?

[Moooooo]

for all of those predicting a kilgore victory...i have one question.

from what ive seen of the polls, kilgore is down big time in nova.  how do you think he is going win statewide if he loses by 10+ points in nova?

By winning by 30%+ everywhere else?  And if he needs more votes to get over the top he could always call mommy.  If Im not mistaken she is an election official in SW Virginia.

Seriously, I dont now enough about VA politics to give a real answer. I know he's going to poll well in the SW, but after that ...

[© tweed]

I'll make my picks now, instead of waiting until tomorrow.

Virginia Governor

(R) Kilgore 49%
(D) Kaine 47%
(I) Potts 4%

New Jersey Governor

(D) Corzine 54%
(R) Forrester 45%
(O) Other <1%

New York Mayor

(R) Bloomberg 63%
(D) Ferrer 36%
(O) Other <1%

[MHS2002]

for all of those predicting a kilgore victory...i have one question.

from what ive seen of the polls, kilgore is down big time in nova.  how do you think he is going win statewide if he loses by 10+ points in nova?

This isn't the best example, but looking at the 2004 Presidential Race:

Consider the Northern VA districts to be districts 8 and 11. Bush lost 8 by 28.73%, and won 11 by 0.63%, which amounted to a 13-14% victory by Kerry. Bush went on to win the state by 8, so if Kilgore comes out of Northern VA down 10, he certainly has a shot.

[CARLHAYDEN]

The major off year partisan elections this year are really bizarre!

Everyone is in agreement that the nominally Republican mayor of New York City will handily win reelection.

Every sane person agrees that Corzine will win the New Jersey Governor's race, but most people agree that he won't clear 55% of the vote despite the fact that the Republican nominee (Forrester) is pathetic.

The real interesting race is for Virginia Governor where I think that the mediocre Republican nominee (Kilgore) will defeat the Democrat nominee (Kaine).

As for numbers:

New York City Mayor

Bloomberg 64%
Ferrer        33
Ognibene    2
The Zoo      1

New Jersey Governor

Corzine     53%
Forrester   41
Pawlowski   2
Thieke         1
The Zoo       1

Virginia Governor

Kilgore       50%
Kaine         48
Potts           2 

[YRABNNRM]

despite the fact that the Republican nominee (Forrester) is pathetic.

Thats hardly a fact or a valid statement.

[jokerman]

Virginia Gubernatorial
Kaine (D) 48
Kilgore (R) 47
Potts (I) 5

Potts very nearly throws it to Kilgore but Kaine narrowly pulls out a victory; he's had the all important momentum in the last few days.

New Jersey Gubernatorial
Corzine (D) 53
Forrester (R) 46
Other <1

Forrester has made some gains but Corzine will still win comfortably.

New York City Mayoral
Bloomberg 61
Ferrer 38
Other <1

Frankly I don't know how Bloomberg went from 20-30 points behind to 20+ points ahead but he did it.

[CARLHAYDEN]

despite the fact that the Republican nominee (Forrester) is pathetic.

Thats hardly a fact or a valid statement.

So, you don't think Forrester has run a pathetic campaign?

[Jake]

Has ran an excellent campaign until he began to falter two weeks ago. I thought he was going to win up until then, but since he's collapsed, he'll lose by 3-7%.

[Moooooo]

Has ran an excellent campaign until he began to falter two weeks ago. I thought he was going to win up until then, but since he's collapsed, he'll lose by 3-7%.

At what point to you think his campaign turned for the worst?