O'Rourke and Castro on collision course in Texas

[Barack Oganja]

Still think Castro missed his chance by not running for a statewide office. Wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even make it to the Texas primary.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/27/orourke-julian-castro-collision-texas-election-1073720

[Alabama_Indy10]

Castro lol

[OctoCube]

Any momentum that Castro could have garnered was destroyed by Robert. He might still run, but there's little reason to believe that he would be an actual contender.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Sure Jan.

[brucejoel99]

I love how the clickbait headline "O'Rourke and Castro on collision course in Texas" is actually an article about how Texas Dem leaders do NOT think they'll nuke each other & that having two Texans run is good for Texas.

[lfromnj]

Damn that 93 percent known and favorability in texas democrats. Yeah its obvious but thats the 2nd biggest state and its on super tuesday.

[YE]

I love how the clickbait headline "O'Rourke and Castro on collision course in Texas" is actually an article about how Texas Dem leaders do NOT think they'll nuke each other & that having two Texans run is good for Texas.

[Barack Oganja]

Damn that 93 percent known and favorability in texas democrats. Yeah its obvious but thats the 2nd biggest state and its on super tuesday.

A win in Iowa (toughest part) plus respectable showings in NH, SC, and especially NV (maybe a win there as well) plus a strong super Tuesday (led by an overwhelming win in Texas) = Beto nominee

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Damn that 93 percent known and favorability in texas democrats. Yeah its obvious but thats the 2nd biggest state and its on super tuesday.

A win in Iowa (toughest part) plus respectable showings in NH, SC, and especially NV (maybe a win there as well) plus a strong super Tuesday (led by an overwhelming win in Texas) = Beto nominee

The flip side is that Kamala needs a win in the first four states (maybe SC) and California and then she would be very well positioned too.

[Barack Oganja]

Damn that 93 percent known and favorability in texas democrats. Yeah its obvious but thats the 2nd biggest state and its on super tuesday.

A win in Iowa (toughest part) plus respectable showings in NH, SC, and especially NV (maybe a win there as well) plus a strong super Tuesday (led by an overwhelming win in Texas) = Beto nominee

The flip side is that Kamala needs a win in the first four states (maybe SC) and California and then she would be very well positioned too.

Yup, after super Tuesday I think it'll be Beto or Kamala vs Bernie or Biden

[lfromnj]

if Beto can't win nevada (aka mini texas but reid machine makes it a blue state) he can't win the primaries.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Beto is going to do best in Nevada, and possibly Iowa, with a respectable showing in New Hampshire, and than win Texas by a large margin.
Kamala is going to do best in South-Carolina, with a respectable showing in Iowa and Nevada and than needs to win by a large margin California
Biden probably best placed in Iowa, followed by NH and SC and than win the smaller Super Sunday states. He's favoured when Kamala or Booker aren't candidates, as that would make him front-runner in SC.
Sanders best placed in NH, but could do well in Iowa and Nevada too, with at least respectable showings, but i think he has the toughest path of all four main contendors i've named here, as he has a tough map on Super Sunday.

Other candidates probably need one or multiple candidates above not running, and would have to gain momentum through debates or coverage to have a shot. Warren's path includes winning NH and doing well in Iowa and Nevada (same path as Bernie). Klobuchar needs to win Iowa probably (or an upset there). Gillibrand's path might be the same as Warren's one. Low-profile candidates need to win Iowa (like Ojeda) or end at least as a close 2nd or 3rd. Bloomberg needs NH too. Booker respectable showings in IA and NH, and needs to win SC. Less sure about Gabbard's path, but probably respectable showings or maybe upset in IA and NH, followed by a respectable showing in NV or win.

[SCNCmod]

I think if Beto had not become a top prospect... Castro could have had a path to top 3 finish in the primary ... opening up a good shot at VP. 

But with Beto most likely in- Castro will not have a chance at getting much traction IMO.

I think one of the Castro Bros should run for Senator in 2020.  Esp is Beto were to get the nominee... having Beto & Castro on the ticket in Texas... plus another 2 years of Demo changes, and Cornyn supposedly being less popular than Cruz... could be a real opportunity.