2020 ME Senate Megathread: How Safe is Stale Susie?

[GoldenMainer]

How safe is Susan Collins and who are the best candidates to run against her? All news and discussion can go here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

She’s relatively safe on paper but to butcher/paraphrase a famous Tyson quote we won’t know how good she is until she is punched so until we see who her opponent is and how bad the environment is for Trump it’s hard to say. Though her strongest opponent in my opinion are Troy Jackson and Golden due to the fact they could hold their own in the 2nd district where Collins needs to do well to win

[Peanut]

Let her think she's safe. Pride comes before a fall.

[pops]

Eric Brakey primary challenge is slightly possible, but it seems more likely that he will run for MEGOP chair.

[MAINEiac4434]

Eric Brakey primary challenge is slightly possible, but it seems more likely that he will run for MEGOP chair.

He is already running for MEGOP Chair.

Anyway, Collins is gonna lose. Her record of inaction and talking out of both sides of her mouth has finally been revealed.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Only Republican I would tilt towards at the moment. Only other Republicans in office that I even like, but I would not vote for are Rick Scott, Will Hurd, John Kasich, and Mike DeWine (who will be a superior governor than Cordray, but I'd still vote for Cordray because partisanship),

[UncleSam]

She’s the most likely senator to break the streak of states voting the same way in the presidential and senate races, but she’s clearly a lot more vulnerable than in past years. Lean R for now.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Collins avoids a primary challenge, but she'd be a heavy underdog in a general election against a competent Democrat (or Angus King, but he's not abandoning the other Senate seat).

My guess is, either Chellie or Hannah Pingree will be the nominee, and either one of them should defeat Collins.

[Jeppe]

Sara Gideon, Speaker of the Maine House, seems to be positioning herself for a Senate run against Collins.

[Ye We Can]

You heard it here first, Collins is gonna win

[GoldenMainer]

My worry with Sara Gideon is how she can perform statewide. Gideon is from a wealthier town just north of Portland. She's super polished but I don't see how she makes inroads in rural areas of the state and in the second district. Not to mention, Angus King is from Brunswick, the next town over from Gideon's. I think we could use some greater regional diversity.

[Jon Tester]

I think Jared Golden could be the next Tom Cotton.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Probably more likely than not to be reelected in a neutral environment, but not safe by any reasonable metric.

[President Johnson]

Depends. I think she survives in a close national election, but if the Democratic candidate for president (BETO?) sweeps, she should go down. Mainly depends on the challenger (I'd like Susan Rice). Is Collins even running?

Maybe she gets primaried? Hopefully the God Emperor intervenes to put up a far-right guy who is toast for the general.

[MAINEiac4434]

Depends. I think she survives in a close national election, but if the Democratic candidate for president (BETO?) sweeps, she should go down. Mainly depends on the challenger (I'd like Susan Rice). Is Collins even running?

Maybe she gets primaried? Hopefully the God Emperor intervenes to put up a far-right guy who is toast for the general.

Susan Rice isn’t from Maine. Her family is, and she has a summer home here, but she isn’t a Maine resident. That alone would screw her in a general election.

[Farmlands]

There's been a lot of disappointments in swing states in recent elections and her popularity numbers barely moved, even after she voted for the unprofessional (to put it lightly) Kavanaugh. I will keep this race as Likely R for my own happiness.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

It's going to take huge mobilization of the state's progressives (and progressive women), they need to tie her aggressively to Trump and Senate Republicans ("Trump-McConnell-Collins"), and make the entire race about her votes are packing the judiciary with socially right-wing judges that are out of touch with Maine's socially progressive New England values.  It can be done.

[brucejoel99]

Well, she's definitely vulnerable in 2020. Her recipe for winning thus far has been to sweep the moderates & have some strong crossover appeal w/ regards to Democrats. I don't see how that's still possible after she voted for Kavanaugh, b/c whatever was left of her moderate brand (that she had previously been able to hold on to w/ her vote to not repeal Obamacare) was largely neutralized by the Kavanaugh vote, even though said vote allowed her to move right & likely save herself for the primary. While I think that Kavanaugh vote won't end up having as much impact in the end as some have predicted it will, it'll still hurt Collins enough to have major ramifications for her chances nonetheless. I personally think she's unlikely to lose, but her margin of victory will definitely be greatly reduced, not least b/c she won't have much (if any) of the crossover appeal she's had up until now.

As for me personally, I hope ME Democrats are able to make sure that this term has been her last.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

JARED

[Politician]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

[Politician]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

#analysis

If it's unwinnable, how did he win it in 2018?

[Zaybay]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

[Calthrina950]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

The Democrats are continuing their retreat to urban and coastal areas with this move...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

The Democrats are continuing their retreat to urban and coastal areas with this move...

If you think he has better than even odds at winning re-election in a Trump+10 seat with Trump on the ballot I got news for all of you. He’s much better off going for the Senate race. Lower risk, higher reward

Thank you!