LA-80%
MS-50%
KY-25%
Overall: 20%
Math lesson: you take the probability of each event happening and multiply them together to get the probability that all three happen.
0.80 x 0.50 x 0.25 = 0.10
10% chance all three happen
LA-90%
MS-50,1%
KY-25%
Overall: 30%
Math lesson: you take the probability of each event happening and multiply them together to get the probability that all three happen.
0.90 x 0.50 x 0.25 = 0.1125
Overall: 11.25%
For the first one, the probabilities are correlated owing to uncertainty about the national environment, so you can't just multiply them together.
The numbers in the second one don't work, though. It's impossible for a Democratic sweep to be more probable than a Democratic win in Kentucky.
Poll
