What % chance do you give for a 2019 Dem sweep?
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  What % chance do you give for a 2019 Dem sweep?
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Poll
Question: What % chance do you give the Dems to win all 3 states (KY/LA/MS)
#1
0%
 
#2
1-10%
 
#3
11-20%
 
#4
21-30%
 
#5
31-40%
 
#6
41-50%
 
#7
51-60%
 
#8
61-70%
 
#9
71-80%
 
#10
81-90%
 
#11
91-100%
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 134

Author Topic: What % chance do you give for a 2019 Dem sweep?  (Read 7669 times)
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
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« on: December 23, 2018, 08:43:19 PM »

What % chance do you give the Dems to carry all three states next year (KY/MS/LA)?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2018, 10:39:26 PM »

LA's already pretty much Likely D at this point & MS's probably a tossup though I'd say it's more likely that Hood pulls it out than not, so that's 2 of the 3 right there, then it's just up to KY for the rest of the sweep to take place. At this point, it's probably somewhere between Lean R & Likely R, closer to Likely, though it's definitely not impossible for a D win to happen due to Bevin's unpopularity, but b/c KY's partisanship makes it more likely than not that he'll narrowly hold on, though, I'd give a 21-30% chance for a 2019 Dem sweep.
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Peanut
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« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2018, 11:23:48 PM »

5.37%. It comes down to KY, which will of course, being KY, end up disappointing.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2018, 11:24:40 PM »

LA-80%
MS-50%
KY-25%
Overall: 20%
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andjey
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« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2018, 02:46:17 AM »

LA-90%
MS-50,1%
KY-25%

Overall: 30%
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2018, 02:51:44 AM »

1-10%. I would give Kentucky a 10% chance of happening, Mississippi 40%, Louisiana 80%. That calculates to 3.2% chance overall.
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PeteHam
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« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2018, 03:03:37 AM »

LA - 85%
MS - 35%
KY - 10%

Sweep - ~3%
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2018, 04:05:04 AM »

3-5%
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2018, 11:35:12 AM »

I'd say about a 10% chance.

I'd frankly be surprised if JBE loses in LA, and I think MS is a tossup, so Democrats have a very good chance of sweeping those two. The thing though is Kentucky, where I think the Dems' chances are at best 25%, which makes a sweep of all three states quite unlikely.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2018, 11:50:50 AM »

About 10%. I’d be quite surprised if they won all 3.
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Frodo
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2018, 11:53:11 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2018, 12:05:27 PM by Frodo »

So is it basically a consensus by this point that Republicans will retain the governorship in Kentucky, and therefore be in total control of redistricting, enabling them to consolidate their hold on the legislature for the foreseeable future?


If so, I'd be curious to see what kind of majorities Republicans will see in the Kentucky House after redistricting.  They currently have a 63:37 majority under a Democratic-drawn map, so perhaps upwards of 70 or 75 sounds reasonable?  
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Woody
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« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2018, 12:06:36 PM »

LA's already pretty much Likely D at this point & MS's probably a tossup though I'd say it's more likely that Hood pulls it out than not, so that's 2 of the 3 right there, then it's just up to KY for the rest of the sweep to take place. At this point, it's probably somewhere between Lean R & Likely R, closer to Likely, though it's definitely not impossible for a D win to happen due to Bevin's unpopularity, but b/c KY's partisanship makes it more likely than not that he'll narrowly hold on, though, I'd give a 21-30% chance for a 2019 Dem sweep.
LA is toss-up, tilt-d at best. Abraham would most likely make this race competitive.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2018, 04:00:17 PM »

30% chance, but if polls come out of MS, favoring the Democratic candidate, since we have only KY and LA to see, then, the chances of a Democratic sweep goes up.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2018, 04:26:26 PM »

I think that it'll be the same in all three states. Polling will show close races at first, but then JBE will be thrown out by ~10%, and Hood and Beshear lose by similar margins.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2018, 04:36:56 PM »

I think that it'll be the same in all three states. Polling will show close races at first, but then JBE will be thrown out by ~10%, and Hood and Beshear lose by similar margins.

Unfortunately I feel that your prediction is probably the most likely so far.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2018, 06:10:35 PM »

Right now I'd say 60-70% for JBE, 30% for Hood and Beshear. But it's still early and a lot can change between now and November 2019.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #16 on: December 24, 2018, 06:28:11 PM »

15%, if Bevin continues to be a screwup and MSGOP nominated someone dumb against Jim Hood.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: December 24, 2018, 06:56:24 PM »

These states as we know as well as in 2020 arent part of Dems electoral math; however, Beshear can beat Bevin due to his low approvals and doesnt have the incumbency advantage as McConnell.

These states will be only a test for 2020 and if Dems can win IA and AZ senate races and KS, states that reflect the deep South
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #18 on: December 24, 2018, 11:46:06 PM »

20%? The economy is nosediving and Trump seems to becoming less popular, but these races are all pretty up in the air.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: December 25, 2018, 01:04:20 AM »

A sweep is not going to happen. I think Bel Edwards will narrowly win reelection in Louisiana, that Hood will narrowly lose in Mississippi, and that Beshear will lose by high single digits in Kentucky. In my estimation, chances of a Democratic sweep are 10% or less.
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pops
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« Reply #20 on: December 25, 2018, 02:09:44 AM »

<1% Dem Sweep
~25% Dem 2/3
~70% GOP 2/3
~5% GOP Sweep
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #21 on: December 25, 2018, 08:46:29 AM »

LA - 70%
MS - 30%
KY - 20%

Generally way too many variables.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #22 on: December 25, 2018, 02:18:11 PM »

55% GOP Sweep
35% GOP 2/3
9% DEM 2/3
1% DEM Sweep

It's Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi, and Atlas is delusional.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #23 on: December 25, 2018, 02:21:52 PM »

55% GOP Sweep
35% GOP 2/3
9% DEM 2/3
1% DEM Sweep

It's Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi, and Atlas is delusional.


Multiple people on here actually mock the idea that the deep south is inelastic.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #24 on: December 25, 2018, 02:40:10 PM »

5%.
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