NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[KaiserDave]

If Cal Cunningham ends up being fine, then we truly live in historically sexy times

[President Johnson]

If Cal Cunningham ends up being fine, then we truly live in historically sexy times

Eliot Spitzer was a decade too early

[Xing]

Calling this race Tilt D (or even Lean D) is acknowledging that Tillis still could win. No one should be taking this race for granted, but rushing to say that Tillis is now favored without polling to back that up is also kind of silly.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This is annoying. Like I obviously still want Cunningham to win, but how hard is it not to have multiple affairs, especially as a politician? C'mon--this just isn't the type of mistake a decent person makes.

[KaiserDave]

This is annoying. Like I obviously still want Cunningham to win, but how hard is it not to have multiple affairs, especially as a politician? C'mon--this just isn't the type of mistake a decent person makes.

We don’t yet know about multiple affairs
But....yeah

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Cunningham is elected then Republicans can only blame themselves and Trump. Not only he desensitized voters but also it's kind of hard to exploit your opponent's sex scandal when at the top of your ticket is a sexual predator who paid hush money to a porn star.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

[wbrocks67]

No one is getting "overconfident" that Cunningham will win. But it's just being realistic that in this current environment, this "scandal" is unlikely to truly break thru. IN a normal year, maybe, but not really now

[Landslide Lyndon]

People also seem to forget how toxic Tillis is. His favorables at the latest PPP poll were 31/54.
People might sour on Cunningham but they absolutely despise his opponent.

[Benjamin Frank]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

You mean like Tillis spreading his Coronavirus infection to other North Carolinians, since the White House refused to allow contact tracing of the Superspreader event?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

You mean like Tillis spreading his Coronavirus infection to other North Carolinians, since the White House refused to allow contact tracing of the Superspreader event?

What Cunningham did was a far worse scandal, regardless of who you want to win.  Plus, Tillis quarantined as soon as he learned he'd tested positive.

[Benjamin Frank]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

You mean like Tillis spreading his Coronavirus infection to other North Carolinians, since the White House refused to allow contact tracing of the Superspreader event?

What Cunningham did was a far worse scandal, regardless of who you want to win.  Plus, Tillis quarantined as soon as he learned he'd tested positive.

How is a personal indiscretion worse than not caring about the lives of other people?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

You mean like Tillis spreading his Coronavirus infection to other North Carolinians, since the White House refused to allow contact tracing of the Superspreader event?

What Cunningham did was a far worse scandal, regardless of who you want to win.  Plus, Tillis quarantined as soon as he learned he'd tested positive.

How is a personal indiscretion worse than not caring about the lives of other people?

Maybe if Cal Cunningham cared more about his own family's lives, he wouldn't be in this situation.

[GALeftist]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

You mean like Tillis spreading his Coronavirus infection to other North Carolinians, since the White House refused to allow contact tracing of the Superspreader event?

What Cunningham did was a far worse scandal, regardless of who you want to win.  Plus, Tillis quarantined as soon as he learned he'd tested positive.

How is a personal indiscretion worse than not caring about the lives of other people?

Maybe if Cal Cunningham cared more about his own family's lives, he wouldn't be in this situation.

Very bad take. Killing people is worse than betraying their trust 100% of the time, idc if they're your wife or child or what. So much hysteria over an issue Cunningham and his wife should be resolving privately.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, the Democratic overconfidence is worrying me quite a bit.  No one here is acknowledging that Cunningham *could* lose and that suggests some denial.  That’s dangerous, 2016-type thinking.

Cunningham isn’t losing in a Biden+10 environment. And he likely isn’t going to run behind  him either. He’s up by about 5 points on average, maybe this will swing it by 1-2 and turn this into a 3-4 point race, but this “scandal” isn’t going to cause Tillis to make up 5-6 points. Not to mention that many ballots have already been casted. This race remains a tossup/Tilt D.

You’re assuming there aren’t more shoes left to drop

You mean like Tillis spreading his Coronavirus infection to other North Carolinians, since the White House refused to allow contact tracing of the Superspreader event?

What Cunningham did was a far worse scandal, regardless of who you want to win.  Plus, Tillis quarantined as soon as he learned he'd tested positive.

How is a personal indiscretion worse than not caring about the lives of other people?

Maybe if Cal Cunningham cared more about his own family's lives, he wouldn't be in this situation.

Very bad take. Killing people is worse than betraying their trust 100% of the time, idc if they're your wife or child or what. So much hysteria over an issue Cunningham and his wife should be resolving privately.

Still though. If you're in a position of running for public office, especially a US Senate seat that very well could decide the balance of pwoer, you should know better

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1314559557138604032
Like I said, nobody cares.

Sounds so hot and fun!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There has only been two polls since the scandal broke, they need to poll this race

[Barack Oganja]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1314926460692582400?s=20

Wonder if other Senate Republicans will follow suit

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Not surprising that Tillis would be the first to do this. Frankly, while their are risks of base demoralization, the Senate Republicans should go all in this strategy. Its probably their only slim chance left in a scenario that doesn't involve a substantial Trump recovery.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1314926460692582400?s=20

Wonder if other Senate Republicans will follow suit

He's phrasing this as if it's some kind of inadvertent admission. It's rather a campaign strategy to win the votes of moderates. Make them think Trump will lose, and they'll more likely want to vote for him to "check" Biden.

It has nothing to do with what he actually thinks will happen.

[GALeftist]

I actually hadn't thought of this before, but could it be that people thinking Trump will win will actually backfire on him, similar to Hillary in 2016? Seems to me that voters in states like North Carolina and Montana would be more amenable to a Democratic Senator if they anticipate another 4 years of Trump.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Are the voters who fell for this ploy in 2016 really going to be duped again?
Not likely considering that a plurality still believes that Trump will win.

[wbrocks67]

Are the voters who fell for this ploy in 2016 really going to be duped again?
Not likely considering that a plurality still believes that Trump will win.

yeah the problem here is that people dont generally believe the polls anymore

[SnowLabrador]

On one hand, it would make sense for voters to vote Democratic downballot if they expect Trump to win again. On the other hand, a majority of voters think Trump will win, and yet the GCB is tighter than national Presidential polls. So it's quite possible Tillis will run a few points ahead of Trump, especially with Cunningham's scandals.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1314926460692582400?s=20

Wonder if other Senate Republicans will follow suit

Not this s*** again. Republicans would not be a “check” on Biden, they’d be a pair of handcuffs. They’d stop at no means, no matter how corrupt and unethical, to stop him from doing anything to help Americans, and happily let the country go to hell so that they can blame it on him and win again. People thinking about voting Biden and Republican downballot need to understand this. Biden and a Republican Congress would not play footsie and make America a moderate wonderland again.

The Democratic rebuttal to this has to be two things. 1) The election isn’t over yet. 2) Republicans like Tillis have proven that they won’t be a check on anything, since they’ve shown time and time again that they’ll vote with Trump and McConnell without question, without any concern for Americans. They can’t be trusted to bring any kind of balance to Congress.