NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

.

I am starting to think I need a restraining order from the mob of "NC/TX/GA are SAFE R!" posters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even I, who has been a proponent of the 279 blue wall had to relent on it. KS, AZ, CO, GA, ME and NC are in play and so is KY-Gov, www.electionprojection.com, is my guide.

[Frenchrepublican]

High Point University poll:

Tillis approval: 27/38 (-11)
Trump approval: 42/50 (-8)
Cooper approval: 43/30 (+13)

https://wcti12.com/news/state-news/hpu-nc-poll-presidential-approval-at-42-governor-approval-at-43

Awful numbers for Tillis but par for the course. Not that it matters since Tillis is the INCUMBENT™ in this race.

RoJo, The Tumor, and Burr were in similar straits at this time in 2015.  That's why the recently returned Russ Feingold, and new Senators McGutless and Ross did an amazing job of blocking Kavanaugh!

Toomey and Burr were never polling this badly.

In fact, Toomey and Burr were both up bigly in September 2015

PPP did a poll in September 2015, they gave Burr a 29/40 approval rate. You should verify your facts before writing here

No, he’s right. Polling at this point in 2015 never showed Burr consistently trailing any Democratic challenger, and the NC Senate race wasn’t even considered seriously competitive in September 2015. Any way you cut it, Tillis is in a worse position than Burr.

He is not. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_93015.pdf
At the same time in 2015 Burr had a 29/40 negative approval.

[Continential]

High Point University poll:

Tillis approval: 27/38 (-11)
Trump approval: 42/50 (-8)
Cooper approval: 43/30 (+13)

https://wcti12.com/news/state-news/hpu-nc-poll-presidential-approval-at-42-governor-approval-at-43

Awful numbers for Tillis but par for the course. Not that it matters since Tillis is the INCUMBENT™ in this race.

RoJo, The Tumor, and Burr were in similar straits at this time in 2015.  That's why the recently returned Russ Feingold, and new Senators McGutless and Ross did an amazing job of blocking Kavanaugh!

Toomey and Burr were never polling this badly.

In fact, Toomey and Burr were both up bigly in September 2015

PPP did a poll in September 2015, they gave Burr a 29/40 approval rate. You should verify your facts before writing here

No, he’s right. Polling at this point in 2015 never showed Burr consistently trailing any Democratic challenger, and the NC Senate race wasn’t even considered seriously competitive in September 2015. Any way you cut it, Tillis is in a worse position than Burr.

He is not. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_93015.pdf
At the same time in 2015 Burr had a 29/40 negative approval.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_burr_vs_d_ross-5693.html#polls
Here are some polls from 2015.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Cunningham brought in more than $1 million in the 3rd quarter.  Not bad.

https://www.wfae.org/post/democratic-senate-candidate-cal-cunningham-raises-1m-third-quarter#stream/0

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Cunningham brought in more than $1 million in the 3rd quarter.  Not bad.

https://www.wfae.org/post/democratic-senate-candidate-cal-cunningham-raises-1m-third-quarter#stream/0

Meanwhile Amy McGrath raised $2.5 million in a day in a completely unwinnable race. Makes me want to throw up

[Politician]

Cunningham brought in more than $1 million in the 3rd quarter.  Not bad.

https://www.wfae.org/post/democratic-senate-candidate-cal-cunningham-raises-1m-third-quarter#stream/0

Meanwhile Amy McGrath raised $2.5 million in a day in a completely unwinnable race. Makes me want to throw up

Waah! Waah!

[Politician]

Schumer is horrible:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1180238746488377349

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Schumer is a joke.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

[Young Conservative]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

1 million isn’t good for a race that is allegedly top tier. John James raised 3 million in Michigan. Even Lindsey Graham’s opponent out-raised Cunningham.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

$1 million is pretty pathetic for a state as big as NC when he’s the purported front runner. I don’t know what the hell Cunningham is doing with his time. The bright side for him of course is that Tillis is an incredibly weak incumbent as it is

[Heebie Jeebie]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

1 million isn’t good for a race that is allegedly top tier. John James raised 3 million in Michigan. Even Lindsey Graham’s opponent out-raised Cunningham.

Different circumstances for both. John James is a star on the right while Cunningham is at this point still a generic D. And people hate Graham with a passion that inspires wasted resources while most donors, even politically engaged ones, don't even know whom Tillis is.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

$1 million is pretty pathetic for a state as big as NC when he’s the purported front runner. I don’t know what the hell Cunningham is doing with his time. The bright side for him of course is that Tillis is an incredibly weak incumbent as it is

Jeff Jackson didn't announce his decision to pass on the race until mid-August. Janet Cowell only just recently made it clear she's not running. People have been waiting for the field to settle before committing their money.  Now that all the big names are confirmed to be out of the running, Cunningham's fundraising should continue at a good pace.

[Zaybay]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

Greenfield is neither doing fine in the polls nor raking in the big bucks.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

Greenfield is neither doing fine in the polls nor raking in the big bucks.

Eh, it's relative. Iowa is probably not where Democrats want to burn resources anyway.

[Comrade Funk]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

Greenfield is neither doing fine in the polls nor raking in the big bucks.

Eh, it's relative. Iowa is probably not where Democrats want to burn resources anyway.

They are being hurt by the trade war and the state is still swingy enough where just giving up is unnecessarily moronic.

[Gracile]

A candidate who raised $1 million in the ninth-largest state in the country (that is supposed to be one of the most competitive states at all levels in 2020 - President, Governor, Senate, House) and who basically has the field all to himself is pretty pathetic, no other way around it. There were certain US House candidates that raised nearly as much in the last quarter and those are much smaller constituencies. I get that Cunningham is not that well-known but it still doesn't inspire much confidence (and I think Jackson might have been a lot savvier on that front given his presence on social media and such). Democrats really need to prioritize this race, and it's just not happening.

And yeah, Schumer has been pretty feckless when it comes to recruiting. Aside from Mark Kelly, he really hasn't landed many of the top-tier recruits we often heard about at the beginning of the cycle. Hopefully, the Senate Dems can put him out of his misery and choose a different leader who doesn't blow their chances of retaking the majority.

[libertpaulian]

A candidate who raised $1 million in the ninth-largest state in the country (that is supposed to be one of the most competitive states at all levels in 2020 - President, Governor, Senate, House) and who basically has the field all to himself is pretty pathetic, no other way around it. There were certain US House candidates that raised nearly as much in the last quarter and those are much smaller constituencies. I get that Cunningham is not that well-known but it still doesn't inspire much confidence (and I think Jackson might have been a lot savvier on that front given his presence on social media and such). Democrats really need to prioritize this race, and it's just not happening.

And yeah, Schumer has been pretty feckless when it comes to recruiting. Aside from Mark Kelly, he really hasn't landed many of the top-tier recruits we often heard about at the beginning of the cycle. Hopefully, the Senate Dems can put him out of his misery and choose a different leader who doesn't blow their chances of retaking the majority.

I think Kavanaugh was when we could figure out what a craptacular Senate leader he is.

[Mr. Smith]

Schumer is horrible:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1180238746488377349

Cannot wait to see Erica Smith pull a Joe Sestak/Andrew Gillum out of all this.

[Frenchrepublican]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

Lol, Elissa Slotkin raised more money and she is not running a statewide campaign, Cunningham and Greenfield seem to be pretty weak candidates, at least until now.

[MT Treasurer]

Even if Cunningham turned out to be a "weak candidate" and Greenfield turned out to be a "strong candidate", NC would still be far more likely to flip than IA.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

Lol, Elissa Slotkin raised more money and she is not running a statewide campaign, Cunningham and Greenfield seem to be pretty weak candidates, at least until now.

I don't think Cunningham is a "great" candidate or anything, but he's fine.  2020 will be a referendum on Trump specifically and Republicans more generally, so turnout will be high no matter what Cunningham does right now--he might as well spend his time gathering resources for a campaign blitz closer to election day.  Which is over a year away, by the way.  There's plenty of time for rallies and public appearances.  And on the money end, Tillis at last reporting, only had $4.4 million cash on hand, a huge chunk of which he's having to spend fighting off a primary challenge.  Cunningham is in the enviable position of being able to sit back and watch Tillis shell out millions to tie himself more closely to Trump--he's doing Democrats' work for them.  And I expect Cunningham's fundraising to only improve now that the Democratic field is settled.  I'll be very surprised if he hasn't raised at least $15 million by election day.

[Frenchrepublican]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

Lol, Elissa Slotkin raised more money and she is not running a statewide campaign, Cunningham and Greenfield seem to be pretty weak candidates, at least until now.

I don't think Cunningham is a "great" candidate or anything, but he's fine.  2020 will be a referendum on Trump specifically and Republicans more generally, so turnout will be high no matter what Cunningham does right now--he might as well spend his time gathering resources for a campaign blitz closer to election day.  Which is over a year away, by the way.  There's plenty of time for rallies and public appearances.  And on the money end, Tillis at last reporting, only had $4.4 million cash on hand, a huge chunk of which he's having to spend fighting off a primary challenge.  Cunningham is in the enviable position of being able to sit back and watch Tillis shell out millions to tie himself more closely to Trump--he's doing Democrats' work for them.  And I expect Cunningham's fundraising to only improve now that the Democratic field is settled.  I'll be very surprised if he hasn't raised at least $15 million by election day.

Atlas democrats should really stop to act as if Trump were toxic in NC, as things stand as of now, Trump is more likely than not to win NC

[MT Treasurer]

Atlas democrats should really stop to act as if Trump were toxic in NC, as things stand as of now, Trump is more likely than not to win NC

Atlas Democrats should really stop being overconfident and paying attention to petty details like approval numbers, other polling, previous election results, and consistent trends.