NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Jackson has totally ruled it out as well, that's not good. Foxx would be a bad idea, since he's now a lobbyist and used to work for Obama. It's Jackson or bust.

[MT Treasurer]

I know many Democrats here and in other states have already ruled out a Senate run, but I wouldn’t read too much into this. I expect at least one of them (maybe Stein) to change their mind, and I agree with Mizzouian that McCready would be a strong recruit as well.

[Jon Tester]

For all the Democrats worried about Jeff Jackson not running, nobody knew about Kay Hagan, yet she won.

[Cold War Liberal]

Are we seriously about to throw away NC-SEN '20 just because we can't find anyone? I thought Schumer was better at recruitment than this...

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Big question is how long can the NC GOP hold on before demographics wipe them out ?

If there is no apparent heir to the Trump mantle in 2024 and a power vacuum ensues I could see NCGOP spending a cycle or two out of power. The lasting damage to the GOP brand would be pretty bad and by the time the GOP puts itself back together after that it may be too late.

[Xing]

Considering Tillis isn't exactly beloved, I can't see this race not being competitive. Not to say that he'll lose, but I think it'll be within 4-5% either way.

[SnowLabrador]

Schumer sucks at recruitment.

[Woody]

Are we seriously about to throw away NC-SEN '20 just because we can't find anyone? I thought Schumer was better at recruitment than this...

The problem is that the democratic bench is incredibly weak. All the democrats got wiped out in the previous elections. Even Cooper could end up being wiped out next year.

[Oryxslayer]

Are we seriously about to throw away NC-SEN '20 just because we can't find anyone? I thought Schumer was better at recruitment than this...

The problem is that the democratic bench is incredibly weak. All the democrats got wiped out in the previous elections. Even Cooper could end up being wiped out next year.

> Dems got Wiped out in Previous Elections.

> 6 -1 D Supreme Court and:


Can you be any less aware of reality?

[henster]

It's baffling we have a stronger field running for Lt. Gov than Senate. Hopefully this ends up like WI-GOV and we end up with a ton of candidates actually running.

[S019]

It's baffling we have a stronger field running for Lt. Gov than Senate. Hopefully this ends up like WI-GOV and we end up with a ton of candidates actually running.

The Democratic recruitment failure this cycle is laughable. I read a Politico article not too long ago about Schumer's plan to become Majority Leader, but all of the recruitments, except AZ and probably GA are falling apart. In AZ, the long primary will lead to a divided party, the Democrats should wait until 2022 for the Senate, they should get it back in a Trump second midterm, but who knows, if their recruitment is like this cycle.

[Zaybay]

It's baffling we have a stronger field running for Lt. Gov than Senate. Hopefully this ends up like WI-GOV and we end up with a ton of candidates actually running.

The Democratic recruitment failure this cycle is laughable. I read a Politico article not too long ago about Schumer's plan to become Majority Leader, but all of the recruitments, except AZ and probably GA are falling apart. In AZ, the long primary will lead to a divided party, the Democrats should wait until 2022 for the Senate, they should get it back in a Trump second midterm, but who knows, if their recruitment is like this cycle.

It’s March of 2019

[SCNCmod]

This unfortunately hasn't really been brought up at all but my heart bleeds for Kay Hagan.

This is her (on the bottom left) as of last April, w/ then-congressional candidate Ryan Watts, who challenged incumbent Mark Walker in NC-06.



Right up to the moment she encountered the dreaded Powassan virus & encephalitis that stole her effervescent personality nearly 2 years ago now, she was a sparkling package of energy, focused on meaningful good work in her life as a public servant. Her inability to achieve this by hopefully having run against Tillis & taken her seat back b/c of her physical decline should serve as an inspiration for any potential candidate in this race.

I wouldn't wish the horror that she's going through on my worst enemy. Wishing her a good recovery!

Has there been much at all in the news regarding Hagan's health- I had no idea she was having health problems? Last I heard she was working for Covington & Burlington or one of the big DC firms.  That really is awful.  I just looked it up and wiki says that with the extremely rare form of encephalitis from Powassan Virus- 10% of cases are Fatal and 50% of survivors have permanent damage.  I could find how full of a recovery the other 50% of survivors have... But maybe there is still hope she will fall into this category.  It appears there are only around 50 new cases each year of this type in the US... although likely many go undiagnosed to the specificity of encephalitis resulting from Powassan- but even so, that is extremely rare odds.
I have an uncle- actually great uncle- in NC, that also has an extremely rare form of encephalitis, contracted about 7-8 years ago.  He would be in the category survivors with permanent damage- I really hope Hagan doesn't end up in the same.

But regarding Senate- from what I can tell, Jeff Jackson would be a really strong candidate & I think would definitely beat Tillis. (Jackson is also a tireless campaigner).

[Sestak]

It's baffling we have a stronger field running for Lt. Gov than Senate. Hopefully this ends up like WI-GOV and we end up with a ton of candidates actually running.

The Democratic recruitment failure this cycle is laughable. I read a Politico article not too long ago about Schumer's plan to become Majority Leader, but all of the recruitments, except AZ and probably GA are falling apart. In AZ, the long primary will lead to a divided party, the Democrats should wait until 2022 for the Senate, they should get it back in a Trump second midterm, but who knows, if their recruitment is like this cycle.

The only recruitment failure so far is MT. And people could conceivably enter the race even a year from now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Totally, agree, now, than yesterday, Dems will target IA and NC than TX.

[TarHeelDem]

People are overreacting. It's too early in the cycle to declare the recruiting situation a failure. Breathe. There's still plenty of time.

[Farmlands]

I'm expecting a disappointment for democrats as the Republican presidential candidate wins the state as usual, but with just enough crossvoters who have it out for Tillis for whatever reason (the border emergency vote flip flop comes to mind) to grab the Senate seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeff Jackson probably runs but its a still a year away to primaries

[SCNCmod]

Jeff Jackson probably runs but its a still a year away to primaries

Jackson would be Crazy not to run- IMO he would be favored to beat Tillis.

[aaroncd107]

Jeff Jackson probably runs but its a still a year away to primaries

Jackson would be Crazy not to run- IMO he would be favored to beat Tillis.

He just had a baby... politicians have families that they care about, it’s not all about moving up the ladder.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Jeff Jackson probably runs but its a still a year away to primaries

Jackson would be Crazy not to run- IMO he would be favored to beat Tillis.

He just had a baby... politicians have families that they care about, it’s not all about moving up the ladder.

He can make a better country for his child by running and possibly unseating Tillis. I know it sounds callous, but he at the very least shouldn't rule it out. He has time to make the decision.

[QAnonKelly]

If I had to bet, Jackson waits until the seat opens up in 2022.

[SnowLabrador]

If I had to bet, Jackson waits until the seat opens up in 2022.

Which really sucks. We need NC's Class 2 seat in 2020, not the Class 3 seat in 2022. Well, it would be nice to have that seat in 2022, but we need to take back the majority next year at all costs.

[SCNCmod]

If I had to bet, Jackson waits until the seat opens up in 2022.

Which really sucks. We need NC's Class 2 seat in 2020, not the Class 3 seat in 2022. Well, it would be nice to have that seat in 2022, but we need to take back the majority next year at all costs.

Is Burr not going to run for re-election?

If so- Burr will be much much tougher to beat than Tillis.  If Jackson has goals for being in the Senate- his shot is most likely 2020, or otherwise 2026. (I don't think anyone will be able to beat Burr at this point.  Haven't seen polls, but it feels like Burr is a lot more popular & stronger candidate now than he was in prior elections.... Seems liked he's sort of reached that threshold that will make him really tough to beat.

[SCNCmod]

I wonder if so many people are running for Lt Governor- anticipating that Cooper will likely get a Cabinet position if Dems take back the White House? Or maybe even anticipating the double possibility of a cabinet position/ or potential VP spot if Kamala were to win the Primary (although I actually think Kamala's chances of being the nominee are a lot lower than some ppl think).