NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state to watch is Mnt, Bullock may run for Senate, since he isnt a frontrunner for Prez or VEEP.

Since he is to the left on SSM and isnt Harris on gun control

[Mr. Smith]

Dang it! Now Jeff Jackson has to run. Otherwise the Democrats will not pick up the seat.

I doubt NC Dems will get a US Senate seat in the Tar Heel State anytime soon.

Wouldn't be so sure. Especially since Erica Smith seems to be a wildcard.

[TarHeelDem]

People here writing off Smith so quickly is interesting to say the least.

[Thatkat04]

Would be funny if this seat flips again. This seat in particular does not like re-electing one term incumbents.

[Mr. Smith]

Would be funny if this seat flips again. This seat in particular does not like re-electing one term incumbents.

This seat was Jesse Helm's seat for eons.

And 2010 broke the curse of the other [though I'd argue Edwards would've defeated Burr if he had stayed in rather than run against Kerry]

[S019]

Would be funny if this seat flips again. This seat in particular does not like re-electing one term incumbents.

This seat was Jesse Helm's seat for eons.

And 2010 broke the curse of the other [though I'd argue Edwards would've defeated Burr if he had stayed in rather than run against Kerry]

Edwards may have won in 2004, but the scandals and the GOP wave would led to him losing by Landrieu or Pryor margins in 2010

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Would be funny if this seat flips again. This seat in particular does not like re-electing one term incumbents.

This seat was Jesse Helm's seat for eons.

And 2010 broke the curse of the other [though I'd argue Edwards would've defeated Burr if he had stayed in rather than run against Kerry]

Edwards may have won in 2004, but the scandals and the GOP wave would led to him losing by Landrieu or Pryor margins in 2010

Edwards scandal came out in 2008 long after his reelection, but he would have lost narrowly to Burr in 2004.

[S019]

Would be funny if this seat flips again. This seat in particular does not like re-electing one term incumbents.

This seat was Jesse Helm's seat for eons.

And 2010 broke the curse of the other [though I'd argue Edwards would've defeated Burr if he had stayed in rather than run against Kerry]

Edwards may have won in 2004, but the scandals and the GOP wave would led to him losing by Landrieu or Pryor margins in 2010

Edwards scandal came out in 2008 long after his reelection, but he would have lost narrowly to Burr in 2004.

I said in 2010, he would have lost badly

[TarHeelDem]

He's toast. What a foolish decision he made today.

[S019]

He is favored to win, because Trump will probably carry this state, if the nominee is Biden, Tillis is in real trouble, but someone like Kamala Harris would not win NC, and Tillis would be fine
Also if Jackson doesn’t run, who will the Democrats run?
I doubt Fox is interested, Deborah Ross is damaged goods, so maybe, Vi Lyles
If Roy Cooper forgoes reelection, this will get interesting
Until there is a clear candidate, Tilt R

[junior chįmp]

He's toast. What a foolish decision he made today.

Nobody's gonna care come election time but if he does lose, you can bet the idiot pundits will then make up the narrative that he was finished because of how he voted on Trump's emergency declaration that most Americans arent aware of. Nevermind of course the changing demographics of the state which would be the real culprit as opposed to the entertaining narrative of a random vote on an insignificant piece of legislation

[lfromnj]

Obviously this vote doesn't matter but Pelosi can call for a revote. The only democrat this vote hurts is Doug Jones who will lose anyway.

[S019]

Obviously this vote doesn't matter but Pelosi can call for a revote. The only democrat this vote hurts is Doug Jones who will lose anyway.

This vote also hurts Gardner, who is a Republican in Colorado, which is quickly becoming inhospitable anyway Gardner is close to doomed

[henster]

Cal Cunningham ran for Senate in 2010 and lost the primary narrowly he's running for Lt. Gov now but he should run for Senate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obviously this vote doesn't matter but Pelosi can call for a revote. The only democrat this vote hurts is Doug Jones who will lose anyway.

It does make him look like an unprincipled hypocrite though. Maybe he thought it would help him in a state where nearly Republican is an unprincipled hypocrite.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously this vote doesn't matter but Pelosi can call for a revote. The only democrat this vote hurts is Doug Jones who will lose anyway.

It does make him look like an unprincipled hypocrite though. Maybe he thought it would help him in a state where nearly Republican is an unprincipled hypocrite.

All blue avatars think Jones will lose. There were 3 statewide elections in which Gillum, Abrams and Espy lost in the South. White Dems are doing well in gubernatorial contests in 2019. Blue avatars said Jones was gonna lose in a special

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1103429998017474560

Likely R. Thillis wins by 6 points.

[aaroncd107]

My connections’ connections say Jackson has totally ruled it out as well. There’s an account on Twitter to draft state rep. and Lt. Gov. candidate Chaz Beasley, and it’s getting a little attention.

[SnowLabrador]

If Jackson has totally ruled it out as well, that's not good. Foxx would be a bad idea, since he's now a lobbyist and used to work for Obama. It's Jackson or bust.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Challenges to R's will emerge once there is resolution to Ptez and it looks like Harris v Bernie/ Bernie 2.0

[Pollster]

If Jackson has truly ruled it out, Dems should pay very close attention to Richard Bew's margin in the NC-03 special.

[Pollster]

Why not Dan McCready if he wins the special? It's not like Dems really have any other A-lister at this point unless they can miraculously convince Cooper to run

Bad look for McCready to jump into the Senate race likely days after winning a special election for Congress. A Bew overperformance in a district that didn't even draw a Dem candidate in 2018 of all years is a much stronger launchpad imo.

This all assumes of course that Jackson is actually out.

[Suburbia]

People here think that Kamala Harris can't win NC if she is the D nominee....Harris could win GA, NC, FL....black voter turnout could increase....but she may be too liberal for those states.

Obama made those states competitive in 2008 and 2012, even Montana and Indiana because of his message...

[S019]

Biden, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, and Gabbard would win NC, everyone else would lose, I don’t think Tillis loses unless either Trump loses NC or wins it by less than 1, which would only happen with the above candidates

[LoneStarDem]

Big question is how long can the NC GOP hold on before demographics wipe them out ?