NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Suburbia]

Jeff Johnson or Jackson, whatever his name is should run for Tillis' seat in 2020 or Burr's seat in 2022.

NC GOPers try to be low key as possible, in this red-leaning state.

[TarHeelDem]

Jackson
Stein
Foxx

All great options, any of them would probably beat Treasonous Thom.

[aaroncd107]

Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles and NC Rep. Brian Turner would both be strong candidates for this seat, in addition to Jackson.

[KaiserDave]

Jackson
Stein
Foxx

All great options, any of them would probably beat Treasonous Thom.

Personally I want Foxx, but he took a job at Lyft. Not exactly a campaign move.

[wesmoorenerd]

Dems have several paths to obtaining those precious few points needed to flip NC.

1. High turnout in the Triangle

2. Pad margins in Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, and other urban counties

3. Cut back on GOP margins in the rurals, which are generally not that red

4. Make inroads in solid R counties like Union

I think Jackson and Foxx would be quite well suited for the first path and probably the second as well, but I don't see either of them playing well in the rurals. Finding a candidate that could accomplish all of the above is a tall order.

[pppolitics]

Jackson
Stein
Foxx

All great options, any of them would probably beat Treasonous Thom.

There are also Janet Coswell and June Atkinson, both of whom left office at the end of 2016.

[Flyersfan232]

I wonder if Roy Cooper will seriously consider the race. It can't be fun being the Democratic governor of a one-party state where the legislature has legislated away democracy.

i dont think he going to risk the governorship going to the republicans for a senate run that he could loose.

[Roll Roons]

If Foxx does jump in, would his work at Lyft (presumably out of state) hurt him Bayh style?

[aaroncd107]

J Jackson met with the DSCC today. Says he’s keeping an open mind about running but since he’s got a 14 week old that is weighing heavily

[SnowLabrador]

I hope he does run. It's pretty much him or bust for Democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

According to a new poll, Tillis's approval rating among all adults is 23/33, 25/36 among registered voters, and 27/40 among 2018 voters. Really surprises me that so many North Carolinians have no opinion of their junior Senator.

More to the point, this serves as strong evidence that Tillis is in big trouble. A good poll for Democrats.

[Zaybay]

According to a new poll, Tillis's approval rating among all adults is 23/33, 25/36 among registered voters, and 27/40 among 2018 voters. Really surprises me that so many North Carolinians have no opinion of their junior Senator.

More to the point, this serves as strong evidence that Tillis is in big trouble. A good poll for Democrats.

Source?

[SnowLabrador]

Here you go: http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2019/02/64memoA.pdf

[Brittain33]

According to a new poll, Tillis's approval rating among all adults is 23/33, 25/36 among registered voters, and 27/40 among 2018 voters. Really surprises me that so many North Carolinians have no opinion of their junior Senator.

More to the point, this serves as strong evidence that Tillis is in big trouble. A good poll for Democrats.

NC is a fast-growing state and people notoriously tuned out the 2014 election. And state government and NC-9 provide plenty of news to drown out a backbench senator. Seems legit to me.

[Zaybay]

Seems to continue the story of the unfortunate and unpopular Tillis who almost 1/2 the state dont know. Unless he can get people to know him, and know him positively, he will probably be one of the first couple pickups for Dems after the obvious CO.

[Politician]

Is it fair to call this Tilt D?

[Zaybay]

Is it fair to call this Tilt D?

No, because its too early and we dont know either the candidate he will face, nor the environment 2020 will be held in.
Tossup is appropriate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I really would rather have an incumbent in the AG race, so I think Foxx or Jackson.

[S019]

Ultimately, this race is Lean R, Democrats will likely not carry North Carolina and I doubt North Carolina has enough Trump-Dem voters to oust an incumbent senator. Josh Stein would give Tillis a run for his money and would have won had this been 2004 or even 2012, but in 2020 polarization will probably help Tillis squeak this one out.

[Brittain33]

Is it fair to call this Tilt D?

Not without a real D candidate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Tillis is still favored, and the key to winning is strong turnout/margins in Charlotte, the Triangle, and the Triad, also do well in Wilmington and Asheville, and sweep the “Butterfields”.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1103429998017474560

[SnowLabrador]

Dang it! Now Jeff Jackson has to run. Otherwise the Democrats will not pick up the seat.

[LoneStarDem]

Dang it! Now Jeff Jackson has to run. Otherwise the Democrats will not pick up the seat.

I doubt NC Dems will get a US Senate seat in the Tar Heel State anytime soon.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1103429998017474560

This isn't surprising imo. Stein will likely be the presumed successor to Cooper, assuming both are reelected in 2020.