KY-Mason Dixon: Bevin Trails by 8

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Really difficult to say this far out, seems like this election (if it becomes nationalized as everything has since 2016) could end up being dissatisfaction over the budget and pensions (recall that Bevin has slashed teacher benefits and has also substantially slashed healthcare) vs "loyalty to Donald Trump". Perhaps people will finally be fed up over all of these budget cuts of which I am not sure Kentucky has seen in a long time, or polarization has finally reached a point where even gubernatorial races are pulled in on how the President is doing in a State.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'll certainly concede (and I'm sure IceSpear will too) that Bevin could lose if multiple polls still show him down by 8 (with Beshear near or above 50%) in September or October. As I said, it's one very early poll, and Kentucky polls aren't the most reliable.

IceSpear doesn't have to concede since he's always right

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like I said, GOP should win MS, and Dems take KY and/or LA

[henster]

ALG's Senate run was such a disaster for her politically, I really believe had she never run she'd most likely be Governor right now.

[Calthrina950]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

Bevin isn't a shoe-in, Bevin isn't McConnell, he has no incumbency advantage that McConnell has.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

[Xing]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

Maybe because a Democrat who was a "strong candidate" lost to a "weak incumbent" Republican in a district that's significantly more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole in a great year for Democrats?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How then did a Democrat just win a county office in Campbell County by 20 points?

Also, a Democrat won 2 Kentucky House seats in northern Kentucky by 20 points each.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

Maybe because a Democrat who was a "strong candidate" lost to a "weak incumbent" Republican in a district that's significantly more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole in a great year for Democrats?

McGrath was a ridiculously overrated candidate, and Barr's campaign was actually pretty solid (his ads and ground game were great), not to mention that Barr is far more popular in his district than Bevin is statewide. Why are we even comparing a gubernatorial race in an off year with a federal race in a regular midterm anyway? Saying that Barr's very underwhelming win is evidence enough that an extremely unpopular governor who’s already trailing in polling couldn’t possibly lose reelection no matter what is foolish. Trump's popularity is going to help McConnell, but probably not Bevin.

[Xing]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

Maybe because a Democrat who was a "strong candidate" lost to a "weak incumbent" Republican in a district that's significantly more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole in a great year for Democrats?

McGrath was a ridiculously overrated candidate, and Barr's campaign was actually pretty solid (his ads and ground game were great), not to mention that Barr is far more popular in his district than Bevin is statewide. Why are we even comparing a gubernatorial race in an off year with a federal race in a regular midterm anyway? Saying that Barr's very underwhelming win is evidence enough that an extremely unpopular governor who’s already trailing in polling couldn’t possibly lose reelection no matter what is foolish. Trump's popularity is going to help McConnell, but probably not Bevin.

He's trailing in one poll, almost a year out, and Kentucky polls tend to underestimate Republicans anyway (Trump's approval is not only +9.) If we were talking about a somewhat less red state, then maybe Bevin's unpopularity would be enough to drag him down, but Kentucky is just way too Republican to elect a Democratic Governor, even in a good year for Democrats. Not to mention, Beshear's approvals aren't terrific (31-23), and that's probably going to get worse for him, not better.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

Maybe because a Democrat who was a "strong candidate" lost to a "weak incumbent" Republican in a district that's significantly more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole in a great year for Democrats?

McGrath was a ridiculously overrated candidate, and Barr's campaign was actually pretty solid (his ads and ground game were great), not to mention that Barr is far more popular in his district than Bevin is statewide. Why are we even comparing a gubernatorial race in an off year with a federal race in a regular midterm anyway? Saying that Barr's very underwhelming win is evidence enough that an extremely unpopular governor who’s already trailing in polling couldn’t possibly lose reelection no matter what is foolish. Trump's popularity is going to help McConnell, but probably not Bevin.

He's trailing in one poll, almost a year out, and Kentucky polls tend to underestimate Republicans anyway (Trump's approval is not only +9.) If we were talking about a somewhat less red state, then maybe Bevin's unpopularity would be enough to drag him down, but Kentucky is just way too Republican to elect a Democratic Governor, even in a good year for Democrats. Not to mention, Beshear's approvals aren't terrific (31-23), and that's probably going to get worse for him, not better.

He’s trailing by 8 points, so even if we assume that polls are underestimating him (which is a big if, and I’m old enough to remember when VA polls always underestimated Republicans until, well, they didn’t) there is clearly a path to victory for Democrats here. Even in 2015, Democrats won two statewide races in Kentucky in a very unfavorable environment. Bevin might be slightly favored, but this race is clearly not Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Matt Bevin isnt McConnell, who has an incumbency advantage.Dems will win KY and keep LA.

[AudmanOut]

Please lock this theard.

[Calthrina950]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

Maybe because a Democrat who was a "strong candidate" lost to a "weak incumbent" Republican in a district that's significantly more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole in a great year for Democrats?

Exactly. Beshear will probably come within single digits, but I don't expect for him to get any closer than that. And it's entirely possible that Bevin wins by low to mid double digits, like Blackburn did in Tennessee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

C'mon, Matt Bevin lost to Mitch McConnell in the primary. He has low approvals. The GOP state assembly even overrode his veto on more school funding.  Beshear can be governor.

[AudmanOut]

C'mon, Matt Bevin lost to Mitch McConnell in the primary. He has low approvals. The GOP state assembly even overrode his veto on more school funding.  Beshear can be governor.

Will u move to Kentucky to help him win?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

C'mon, Matt Bevin lost to Mitch McConnell in the primary. He has low approvals. The GOP state assembly even overrode his veto on more school funding.  Beshear can be governor.

Will u move to Kentucky to help him win?

George Clooney is from KY and will

[AudmanOut]

C'mon, Matt Bevin lost to Mitch McConnell in the primary. He has low approvals. The GOP state assembly even overrode his veto on more school funding.  Beshear can be governor.

Will u move to Kentucky to help him win?

George Clooney is from KY and will

WTF!!! George Clooney is fine in Europe he not moving back to KY just for th gubernatorial race, you have a lot of weird posts but this definitely up there!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, he dont have to live there, he can support Beshear through ectronic means like he does all Democratic candidates

[😥]

Tòo early to call, but I give only 30% for Dems win it

[South Dakota Democrat]

No, he dont have to live there, he can support Beshear through ectronic means like he does all Democratic candidates

You're weird.

[MassBlueDog]

I mean, I don't know anything about Kentucky politics, but do people still like the Beshear name?  Just like how in Oklahoma I feel like Dan Boren could have pulled off the governor's race?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, he dont have to live there, he can support Beshear through ectronic means like he does all Democratic candidates

You're weird.

This quote was taken way out of context and has no relevancy to the underlying poll that shows Beshear ahead.

[IceSpear]

I already see some poster bumping this thread in mid/late Nov '19 with a simple "LOL" after Bevin is reelected by double digits.

No need to wait, I'm already LOLing at it.

Are the “Safe R Kentucky” people just going to ignore the fact Conway never polled at 48, and got the exact vote share polls said he would, or does that ruin their narrative?

It’s Lean R, not Safe R.

Actually, Conway led Bevin by 11 points (and was at 48%) in a May poll, which was a mere 6 months before the election as opposed to this poll which is 11 months before the election.

Bevin's campaign in 2015 was so hilariously awful it honestly made me believe that he was trying to lose that race. He’s an awful candidate who was saved by the environment and a very mediocre opponent

And he still won in a landslide because it's Kentucky. What does that say?

I'll certainly concede (and I'm sure IceSpear will too) that Bevin could lose if multiple polls still show him down by 8 (with Beshear near or above 50%) in September or October. As I said, it's one very early poll, and Kentucky polls aren't the most reliable.

Agreed, though even September is too early. Remember that Bredesen was leading even in a few September polls, and we saw how that worked out, with him getting BTFO by double digits even in a D+9 Democratic wave.

Really difficult to say this far out, seems like this election (if it becomes nationalized as everything has since 2016) could end up being dissatisfaction over the budget and pensions (recall that Bevin has slashed teacher benefits and has also substantially slashed healthcare) vs "loyalty to Donald Trump". Perhaps people will finally be fed up over all of these budget cuts of which I am not sure Kentucky has seen in a long time, or polarization has finally reached a point where even gubernatorial races are pulled in on how the President is doing in a State.

Gov. Edmondson can attest to the fact that polarization doesn't matter in gubernatorial races and that local issues matter most. That's what Atlas told me when I was continually mocked for calling that race safe R.