KY-Mason Dixon: Bevin Trails by 8

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1074770388155027457

[President Johnson]

Unbeatable Titan Bevin!

[Woody]

Why does Bevin suck so much??

[Xing]

It's way too soon to be trusting these polls, not to mention the fact that Kentucky polls tend to have a Democratic bias. If Bevin is still down by 8 (not 1 or 2) in October, then we'll talk.

[Ebsy]

It's way too soon to be trusting these polls, not to mention the fact that Kentucky polls tend to have a Democratic bias. If Bevin is still down by 8 (not 1 or 2) in October, then we'll talk.

I agree, the Kentucky polls can be misleading. But the rule of thumb as an incumbent is that you don't want to be stuck near 40, especially at the beginning of the cycle.

[wesmoorenerd]

It's way too soon to be trusting these polls, not to mention the fact that Kentucky polls tend to have a Democratic bias. If Bevin is still down by 8 (not 1 or 2) in October, then we'll talk.

I agree, the Kentucky polls can be misleading. But the rule of thumb as an incumbent is that you don't want to be stuck near 40, especially at the beginning of the cycle.

This. IceSpear and his compatriots will point to 2015, but Conway never polled this well.

[scutosaurus]

Mason-Dixon also said that Phil Bredesen would win, and we all saw how that worked out. I'd love to be wrong, but I'll only believe it when I see it.

[DaWN]

(x) doubt

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, KY is one of those states where voters tend to be more loyal to the brand in initial polling as it pertains to their Party ID and registration ("I'm a registered Democrat, and I'm gonna vote for the Democrat"), but as time wears on, a hefty chunk of them reliably defect. Of course, I didn't expect KY-06 to hold up as well as it did with McGrath, and that was for a federal race. We'll see.

[Bidenworth2020]

LOL. I wish.

[Zaybay]

Highly interesting, and makes sense, the best predictor of performance is approvals, and, well, Bevin doesnt have the greatest.

Of course, you cant take these polls at face value until around October, but still, kinda interesting.

[wesmoorenerd]

Why I think this is a tossup:

KY polls overestimating Dems is a myth. What they do is underestimate Republicans. Take a look at the 2015 polling. Conway got the 44% he was pulling in most polls, he didn't exactly underperform. Bevin, on the other hand, got almost all the undecideds. He overperformed massively.

Here's the kicker: Conway never led by this much in the polls. 48 is pretty hefty. If Beshear is really garnering 48% in the polls he'll be in this race even if the undecideds unsurprisingly break for Bevin.

I'm not going to go overboard and move it to D-favored, there's a solid chance this poll is overestimating Beshear's support and there's always a chance that, even if this is accurate, the undecideds will break for Bevin so hard it's a moot point, but it ain't safe R or even likely.

[IceSpear]

Kentucky polls are about as reliable as Nevada polls. And no polls are reliable a year before the election anyway.

[Zaybay]

Kentucky polls are about as reliable as Nevada polls. And no polls are reliable a year before the election anyway.

Gonna be honest, you posting these polls kinda just makes Westroopnerd's point more valid.....

[Politician]

Strong Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D

[Don Vito Corleone]

Highly interesting, and makes sense, the best predictor of performance is approvals, and, well, Bevin doesnt have the greatest.

Of course, you cant take these polls at face value until around October, but still, kinda interesting.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

It's way too early. Also, I just simply don't trust Kentucky.

[new_patomic]

Even if the Democrat is only leading by 1 or 2 points in October, it'd be much more predictive if they're at 48/49 than at 45/46.

But yeah, all this shows us is that Bevin is vulnerable, which duh.

[Skye]

This just tells us that Bevin is unpopular and that's it for now. We still have months to go.

[ON Progressive]

This is definitely competitive (Conway never polled this well), but I still think Bevin's favoured.

Lean R.

[2016]

Republican Governors when they unpopular trend to lose see Ernie Fletcher.

[lfromnj]

Republican Governors when they unpopular trend to lose see Ernie Fletcher.

I know it wasnt an incumbent but Mary Fallin had a 13 percent approval and the GOP still held the governorship

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm moving this one from Lean R to Tilt R.

Bevin would best suited announcing that he isn't running (and maybe launching a primary challenge against McConnell in 2020?), allowing Republicans to run a fresher face like Jeanan Hampton or Andy Barr.

[2016]

Republican Governors when they unpopular trend to lose see Ernie Fletcher.

I know it wasnt an incumbent but Mary Fallin had a 13 percent approval and the GOP still held the governorship

Fletcher was elected narrowly against Ben Chandler in 2003, then lost Re-Election against Steve Beshear in 2007.

Now his son Andy Beshear is running. I say Quo Vadis Bevin.