KY-Mason Dixon: Bevin Trails by 8

[ElectionsGuy]

lol

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I've been burned too many times with scenarios like this, I don't believe it.

Times have changed and Beshear will win☺

[Beet]

Senators Evan Bayh and Phil Bredesen can attest to the reliability of this poll.

[AudmanOut]

It shouldn’t be legal to poll this early.

Senators Evan Bayh and Phil Bredesen can attest to the reliability of this poll.

Now eventually those states will vote Democrat, maybe sooner rather then later but dismissing them as racist rural hicks who almost all voted for trump but the ones who didn’t are only voting dem because they don’t think the gop is racist enough and would vote for a openly racist candidate who calls blacks and Hispanics scum is just stupid.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Wow a Trump+30 and 49% white evangelical state that’s not tuned into an election yet and is filled with registered Trump Dems gave a popular state name Democrat 48% in a poll 11 months out.

Atlas: tossup Dems can win everywhere!

[lfromnj]

Wow a Trump+30 and 49% white evangelical state that’s not tuned into an election yet and is filled with registered Trump Dems gave a popular state name Democrat 48% in a poll 11 months out.

Atlas: tossup Dems can win everywhere!

Wait tn is 50 percent evangelical. Evangelicals are disgusting people who vote 80 percent for a pedo so yeah that kills any doubt I had of Kentucky voting for beshear.

[ltomlinson31]

Wow a Trump+30 and 49% white evangelical state that’s not tuned into an election yet and is filled with registered Trump Dems gave a popular state name Democrat 48% in a poll 11 months out.

Atlas: tossup Dems can win everywhere!

Wait tn is 50 percent evangelical. Evangelicals are disgusting people who vote 80 percent for a pedo so yeah that kills any doubt I had of Kentucky voting for beshear.

Yeah, it's 52% evangelical. It's the most evangelical state in the country. Alabama as a comparison is at 49%, and the same with Kentucky.

[lfromnj]

Wow a Trump+30 and 49% white evangelical state that’s not tuned into an election yet and is filled with registered Trump Dems gave a popular state name Democrat 48% in a poll 11 months out.

Atlas: tossup Dems can win everywhere!

Wait tn is 50 percent evangelical. Evangelicals are disgusting people who vote 80 percent for a pedo so yeah that kills any doubt I had of Kentucky voting for beshear.

Yeah, it's 52% evangelical. It's the most evangelical state in the country. Alabama as a comparison is at 49%, and the same with Kentucky.

Sorry I knew tn wqs evangelical but I never thought kentucky as that evangelical . Yeah lol at dems winning a state where the majority of voters would gladly support a pedo.

[Sir Mohamed]

I want to believe. It's a year out (almost) and KY has a history of Dems polling well early and then lose big league. If these numbers hold to September and October 2018, we can talk. Anyway, not a great poll for Bevin.

[Pericles]

Why does this forum consistently fail to learn from actual election results and believe junk polls months out? Bevin wins by 8

Sure, Bevin has low approvals

Yeah, so he only wins by 8 rather than by 18.

[Skye]

https://eu.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/18/matt-bevin-behind-andy-beshear-rocky-adkins-new-mason-dixon-poll/2343321002/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There's this, btw. So maybe he isn't as weak as the first numbers led us to believe.

[Zaybay]

Thats highly interesting. Either Beshar is rather popular in the state and well known, or people really dont like Grimes.

[2016]

Here is the Full Poll now

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000167-be03-d2a9-a1ef-bf9fa42a0000

Bevin JA
38/53

Favorables

Favorable/Unfavorable/Neutral/Not Sure

Donald Trump
46
%
37
%         
17
%       
-
Andy Beshear
31
%
23
%         
39
%       
7
%
Matt B
evin
29
%
44
%         
26
%       
1
%
Alison Lundergan Grimes
2
8
%
2
9
%         
2
9
%       
4
%
Rocky Adkins
18
%
3
%         
21
%       
58
%
Amy McGrath
17
%
12
%         
23
%       
48
%
Adam Edelen
15
%
2
%         
20
%       
63
%
Attica Scott
3
%
2
%         
18
%       
77
%

[Zaybay]

oh god why

Please reformat that, its an eyesore like that.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Wow a Trump+30 and 49% white evangelical state that’s not tuned into an election yet and is filled with registered Trump Dems gave a popular state name Democrat 48% in a poll 11 months out.

Atlas: tossup Dems can win everywhere!

Timmy, the vast majority of people on this thread (including me) are saying Bevin is favoured.

[Sir Mohamed]

I already see some poster bumping this thread in mid/late Nov '19 with a simple "LOL" after Bevin is reelected by double digits.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

But wait! This poll can't be right! The Republicans have a CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT to win every election in the state of Kentucky, don't ya know!

[Xing]

There is no way Trump is only at +9 favorable in Kentucky. Throw it in the trash, if you haven't already. Trump's approval in Kentucky would still be at least +15 even if a recession hit.

[ON Progressive]

Are the “Safe R Kentucky” people just going to ignore the fact Conway never polled at 48, and got the exact vote share polls said he would, or does that ruin their narrative?

It’s Lean R, not Safe R.

[AudmanOut]

Wow a Trump+30 and 49% white evangelical state that’s not tuned into an election yet and is filled with registered Trump Dems gave a popular state name Democrat 48% in a poll 11 months out.

Atlas: tossup Dems can win everywhere!

Who are these imaginary atlas posters you and icespear create?

Are the “Safe R Kentucky” people just going to ignore the fact Conway never polled at 48, and got the exact vote share polls said he would, or does that ruin their narrative?

It’s Lean R, not Safe R.

Not true obviously every red state race is safe r because much ‘racist hicks’ who wil vote for a republican even if their was no republican on the ballot.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Who are these imaginary atlas posters you and icespear create?

Eharding this is a bad sock account. Claiming to be 13 years old is even more pathetic.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin's campaign in 2015 was so hilariously awful it honestly made me believe that he was trying to lose that race. He’s an awful candidate who was saved by the environment and a very mediocre opponent, and I’m not sure whether he will have those things going in his favor again in 2019. I’d say he’s ever so slightly favored, but the idea that this is Safe R is ridiculous. Tilt or Lean R seems fine.

[AudmanOut]

Who are these imaginary atlas posters you and icespear create?

Eharding this is a bad sock account. Claiming to be 13 years old is even more pathetic.

I’m not eharding sock.

[Xing]

I'll certainly concede (and I'm sure IceSpear will too) that Bevin could lose if multiple polls still show him down by 8 (with Beshear near or above 50%) in September or October. As I said, it's one very early poll, and Kentucky polls aren't the most reliable.

[Comrade Funk]

I'll just say I'm pleasantly surprised all three 2019 races are even competitive.