KY-Mason Dixon: Bevin Trails by 8

[IceSpear]

Republican Governors when they unpopular trend to lose see Ernie Fletcher.

I know it wasnt an incumbent but Mary Fallin had a 13 percent approval and the GOP still held the governorship

In a double digit landslide during a D+9 Democratic wave no less.

[lfromnj]

Republican Governors when they unpopular trend to lose see Ernie Fletcher.

I know it wasnt an incumbent but Mary Fallin had a 13 percent approval and the GOP still held the governorship

In a double digit landslide during a D+9 Democratic wave no less.

BTW let's say the KY gov was in 2018. Do you think McGrath would have won? Kendra horn won a lot because of muh Fallin.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

KY is firmly in the Trump cult. All Bevin needs is a few rallies and ads from the cretin and he'll pull through with upper single digits/low double digits. These people don't care about Republican economics destroying their state, only muh culture war. Look at OK.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R because of POLARIZATION

[lfromnj]

Safe R because of Racist hicks

Kansas wasn't safe r because neoliberal suburbs revolted.

[ON Progressive]

Safe R because of POLARIZATION

You can't forget one other very important reason:
Kentucky is INELASTIC.

[IceSpear]

Safe R because of POLARIZATION

Careful, these were the same type of posts people made to mock my prediction that OK-Gov was safe R whenever a good poll for the Democrats came out.

[IceSpear]

Safe R because of Racist hicks

Kansas wasn't safe r because neoliberal suburbs revolted.

Indeed. Racist KY Hicks are about to deliver Atlas another painful lesson, just as the Racist OK Hicks and Racist TN Hicks did.

[Pericles]

Still Likely R for now. Potentially Lean R(tossup if corroborated broadly by lots of other recent polls) if this was released the day before the election.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Safe R because of Racist hicks

Kansas wasn't safe r because neoliberal suburbs revolted.

I don't know if Kentucky has neoliberal suburbs, Oldham County voted for Trump.

[ON Progressive]

Safe R because of POLARIZATION

Careful, these were the same type of posts people made to mock my prediction that OK-Gov was safe R whenever a good poll for the Democrats came out.

Edmondson never was ahead by 8 in any poll, and he definitely never polled at 48%. In fact, Edmondson never even polled at 45.

[Pericles]

Safe R because of Racist hicks

Kansas wasn't safe r because neoliberal suburbs revolted.

I don't know if Kentucky has neoliberal suburbs, Oldham County voted for Trump.

Trump is a huge neoliberal. Obamacare repeal, tax cuts for the rich, deregulation etc.

[free my dawg]

>mason-dixon

[Ebsy]

As disappointing the result in OK-Gov was, there is a convincing case that Mary Fallin's record low approvals, along with the incumbent being asleep at the wheel, delivered Democrats OK-05.

[Zaybay]

Safe R because of Racist hicks

Kansas wasn't safe r because neoliberal suburbs revolted.

Indeed. Racist KY Hicks are about to deliver Atlas another painful lesson, just as the Racist OK Hicks and Racist TN Hicks did.

Yeah, just like those racist hicks in ME and MT, who couldnt vote for Democrats even if their life depended on it.....wait.

At this point, racist hicks and polarization have become buzz words to dismiss races that could or have the potential to be competitive, with all the nuance of a children's story book. Not only are these situations radically different:

(TN had a popular former governor running against a no-name, so of course they would be inflated early)

(The candidate running, and I cant stress this enough, wasnt Mary Fallin, it was the, according to polling, moderately popular Stintt. Not only that, as ONProgressive has stated, Drew Edmonson never got more than 44% in polling, ever)

You cant just slap the same argument onto every race(especially since its already fallen apart, see MT, SD, NY, New England, CA, etc.) as nuance exists in the political world. Every race is different, and has its own set of factors. For this one, you have Bevin, the incumbent, unpopular governor, vs the presumptive Democrat Beshar, the current AG. Will Beshar win? Probably not, but he still has a great chance, and dismissing this race outright from the start is just setting yourself up for failure.
 

[Torrain]

Hey, I’ll take any good news for Democrats in Kentucky I can get. Even a close race is an improvement. Anything to make McConnell squirm in 2020. ‘19, and especially ‘20 are going to be uphill fights, but based on the seat composition, Democrats should use the data they gather in ‘19 to seriously contest McConnell. Anything to keep him distracted, and hold his fundraising cash in Appalachia rather than Cedar Rapids or Helena.

[IceSpear]

Safe R because of Racist hicks

Kansas wasn't safe r because neoliberal suburbs revolted.

Indeed. Racist KY Hicks are about to deliver Atlas another painful lesson, just as the Racist OK Hicks and Racist TN Hicks did.

Yeah, just like those racist hicks in ME and MT, who couldnt vote for Democrats even if their life depended on it.....wait.

At this point, racist hicks and polarization have become buzz words to dismiss races that could or have the potential to be competitive, with all the nuance of a children's story book. Not only are these situations radically different:

(TN had a popular former governor running against a no-name, so of course they would be inflated early)

(The candidate running, and I cant stress this enough, wasnt Mary Fallin, it was the, according to polling, moderately popular Stintt. Not only that, as ONProgressive has stated, Drew Edmonson never got more than 44% in polling, ever)

You cant just slap the same argument onto every race(especially since its already fallen apart, see MT, SD, NY, New England, CA, etc.) as nuance exists in the political world. Every race is different, and has its own set of factors. For this one, you have Bevin, the incumbent, unpopular governor, vs the presumptive Democrat Beshar, the current AG. Will Beshar win? Probably not, but he still has a great chance, and dismissing this race outright from the start is just setting yourself up for failure.

Uh, what in the world do ME and MT have to do with KY? Not only did I not predict those races were safe R, I predicted Democrats would win them. So that does nothing to debunk the Racist Hick Theory.

Every state has Racist Hicks. Some more than others. In Kentucky, just as in Oklahoma and Tennessee, there are enough Racist Hicks to make the state unwinnable for Democrats barring pedophilia or some other similarly extreme situation. It's not that complicated.

If you're a popular incumbent like Manchin that got grandfathered in before Racist Hicks began to view all Democrats as members of an anti-white hate group, then you might be able to survive. But aside from that, if you're a Democrat in a state with a Racist Hick majority, you're up sh**ts creek without a paddle.

Oh, and Fallin still would've won if she was up for re-election.

[aakash]

Let me fix what this poll means, Bevin leads Beshear 52-48. As the campaign draws Bevin would pull that lead to 54-46, which will be the election result.

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, probably not. Remember, OK-GOV was once a tossup, and then Stitt won by 12. This, with the current Republican governor having approval ratings that were, by some polls, as low as 11%.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R because of POLARIZATION

You can't forget one other very important reason:
Kentucky is INELASTIC.

Just wait until Trump ENDORSES Bevin and holds a RALLY for him.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I've been burned too many times with scenarios like this, I don't believe it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I've been burned too many times with scenarios like this, I don't believe it.

Times have changed and Beshear will win☺

[AudmanOut]

Icespear is it possible for you to say anything besides much racist ‘ky,tn,WV rural hicks?

[AtorBoltox]

Why does this forum consistently fail to learn from actual election results and believe junk polls months out? Bevin wins by 8

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why does this forum consistently fail to learn from actual election results and believe junk polls months out? Bevin wins by 8

Sure, Bevin has low approvals