Party ID with leaners in Battleground States(2018 Fox Voter Analysis Survey)

[swords]

Fox News 2018 Voter Analysis

Fox News has launched an improved approach for analyzing Americans’ priorities and vote preferences on Election Day. The Fox News Voter Analysis combines survey data from NORC at the University of Chicago with voting results from The Associated Press. As more people vote early or by mail, the new method overcomes the limitations of in-person exit polls and captures the views of all Americans by integrating probability-based, state-by-state surveys with a massive online poll. The FNVA survey will show results from all 47 states in which there is a contested statewide election this November.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis

Florida  R +4%
FL Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 42%  Republican/Lean Rep 46% / Independent 12%

Wisconsin  R+2%
WI Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 43%  Republican/Lean Rep 45% / Independent 13%

Michigan R +1%
MI Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 42%  Republican/Lean Rep 43% / Independent 15%

Pennsylvania R +1%
PA Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 44%  Republican/Lean Rep 45% / Independent 11%

Minnesota  D +6%
MN Gov.  Democrat/Lean Dem 46%  Republican/Lean Rep 40% / Independent 14%

Ohio  R +7%
OH Sen.  Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 48% / Independent 11%

Virginia  D +5%
VA Sen.  Democrat/Lean Dem 47%  Republican/Lean Rep 42% / Independent 11%

Arizona  R +6%
AZ Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 47% / Independent 12%

Nevada  D +2%
NV Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 42%  Republican/Lean Rep 44% / Independent 14%

Iowa  R +11%
IA Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 36%  Republican/Lean Rep 47% / Independent 17%

New Hampshire   Even
NH Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 42%  Republican/Lean Rep 42% / Independent 15%

Maine  Even
ME Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 41% / Independent 18%

Texas  R +8%
TX Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 49% / Independent 10%

Colorado  D +2%
CO Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 43%  Republican/Lean Rep 41% / Independent 16%

Georgia  R +7%
GA Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 48% / Independent 11%


Non Battleground
Alabama  R +30%
AL Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 29%  Republican/Lean Rep 59% / Independent 13%

Connecticut  D +7%
CT Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 47%  Republican/Lean Rep 40% / Independent 13%

Delaware  D +10%
DE Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 47%  Republican/Lean Rep 37% / Independent 16%

South Carolina  R +19%
SC Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 35%  Republican/Lean Rep 54% / Independent 12%

New Jersey  D +15%
NJ Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 50%  Republican/Lean Rep 35% / Independent 15%

Rhode Island  D +20%
RI Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 51%  Republican/Lean Rep 31% / Independent 18%

[ElectionsGuy]

Based on these numbers it looks like Republicans blew it with independent voters. In many cases of senatorial and gubernatorial contests, Republicans just managed to get at or slightly above the Republican/Lean Rep number which is embarrassing. I'll have to look more into this but if this is accurate then it proves that Democrats should not be gloating about how well situated they are to win in 2020. The rust belt problem is still there.

My favorite piece of info here is that Iowa is R+11. And people say it's now a toss-up, lol.

[Adam Griffin]

I know it's Party ID and therefore (likely) self-reported...but the more non-white a state is, the more you should take these figures in any meaningful sense with a grain of salt.

[Annatar]

These numbers look a lot better for the GOP then the Edison Research Polls that don't assign leaner's and just put them into the independent category. The numbers look almost to good for the GOP I dare say, in PA, the CNN exit poll was 35% GOP, 42% Dem, this survey has GOP 45 to 44 with leaner's. In MI, CNN exit polls was 31% GOP, 39% Dem, Fox News survey has it 43% GOP to 42% Dem. The only way to harmonise the 2 results would be if an overwhelming majority of independents lean Republican, if that is the case, and these figures are reflected in 2020, Trump is pretty heavily favoured to win.

[swords]

Based on these numbers it looks like Republicans blew it with independent voters. In many cases of senatorial and gubernatorial contests, Republicans just managed to get at or slightly above the Republican/Lean Rep number which is embarrassing. I'll have to look more into this but if this is accurate then it proves that Democrats should not be gloating about how well situated they are to win in 2020. The rust belt problem is still there.

My favorite piece of info here is that Iowa is R+11. And people say it's now a toss-up, lol.

As 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis Survey


WV Sen Race
Manchin 49.6%  Morrisey 46.3%
                                  Total
Democrat/Lean Dem  32%  Manchin 92%  Morrisey 4%
Republican/Lean Rep 55%  Manchin 22%  Morrisey 76%
Independent             13%  Manchin 65%  Morriesey 22%


MT Sen Race
Tester 50.3%  Rosendale 46.8%
                                  Total
Democrat/Lean Dem  37%  Tester 98%   Rosendale 1%
Republican/Lean Rep 50%  Tester 11%   Rosendale 86%
Independent             12%  Tester 64%   Rosendale 27%
 

AZ Sen Race
Sinema 50.0%  McSally 47.6%
                                  Total
Democrat/Lean Dem  41%  Sinema 95%   McSally 4%
Republican/Lean Rep 47%  Sinema 10%   McSally 89%
Independent             12%  Sinema 54%   McSally 37%

[swords]

 

Non Battleground
Oregon  D +16%
OR Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 50%  Republican/Lean Rep 34% / Independent 16%

Kansas R +19%
KS Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 35%  Republican/Lean Rep 54% / Independent 11%
 

[Annatar]

I find it interesting how the Fox News Voter Survey has a much more heavy republican view of the electorate yet has Trump's approval being lower in virtually every state vs the Edison Polls, overall I think Edison is more correct, if you just take the cross tabs of the Fox News survey, you end up with the Dems wining by 6.7%, whereas the Edison poll work out to a 8.2% Dem win which is closer to the real margin, also Fox News has White Evangelicals at 22% of the vote which seems implausible, White Evangelicals were 26% in 2008, 26% in 2012, 26% in 2016 and in a midterm where turnout was around 120 million, they would likely have been 26% again as the Edison polls show.

[swords]

I find it interesting how the Fox News Voter Survey has a much more heavy republican view of the electorate yet has Trump's approval being lower in virtually every state vs the Edison Polls, overall I think Edison is more correct, if you just take the cross tabs of the Fox News survey, you end up with the Dems wining by 6.7%, whereas the Edison poll work out to a 8.2% Dem win which is closer to the real margin, also Fox News has White Evangelicals at 22% of the vote which seems implausible, White Evangelicals were 26% in 2008, 26% in 2012, 26% in 2016 and in a midterm where turnout was around 120 million, they would likely have been 26% again as the Edison polls show.

I don't think so.

Fox News Voter Analysis
Nation
             Total
Men         48%  Dem 45%  Rep 49%
Women   52%   Dem 55%  Rep 39%

Total  Dem 50.2%  Rep 43.8%

and fox news analysis is about Sen/Gov Race.
Not about House Race.

[Annatar]

I find it interesting how the Fox News Voter Survey has a much more heavy republican view of the electorate yet has Trump's approval being lower in virtually every state vs the Edison Polls, overall I think Edison is more correct, if you just take the cross tabs of the Fox News survey, you end up with the Dems wining by 6.7%, whereas the Edison poll work out to a 8.2% Dem win which is closer to the real margin, also Fox News has White Evangelicals at 22% of the vote which seems implausible, White Evangelicals were 26% in 2008, 26% in 2012, 26% in 2016 and in a midterm where turnout was around 120 million, they would likely have been 26% again as the Edison polls show.

I don't think so.

Fox News Voter Analysis
Nation
             Total
Men         48%  Dem 45%  Rep 49%
Women   52%   Dem 55%  Rep 39%

Total  Dem 50.2%  Rep 43.8%

and fox news analysis is about Sen/Gov Race.
Not about House Race.

Fair enough.

[Person Man]

The Florida Scott machine was amazing in getting out the vote. That's for darn sure!

[wbrocks67]

Fox News polls are always completely separate, but I do find it suspicious that their 2018 exit survey definitely has an R tilt.

Just look at PA. CNN's has it as D+7 electorate. Fox has it R+1.

Wolf/Casey did great with Indies, but you don't get +13 and +17 margins with a R+1 electorate.

[swords]

Fox News polls are always completely separate, but I do find it suspicious that their 2018 exit survey definitely has an R tilt.

Just look at PA. CNN's has it as D+7 electorate. Fox has it R+1.

Wolf/Casey did great with Indies, but you don't get +13 and +17 margins with a R+1 electorate.

ins't it first time Fox News released Election analysis Poll. Which includes Early voting?
They did in 2016?