Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[DisneyDem]

How many times does the odds on favorite for months on end actually get picked? The only one I can think of is the Democrats in 2016. Every other cycle has had some shifting near the end. In both parties

[Landslide Lyndon]

How many times does the odds on favorite for months on end actually get picked? The only one I can think of is the Democrats in 2016. Every other cycle has had some shifting near the end. In both parties

What are you talking about? Biden was the favorite in 2008 and was eventually picked.

[President Johnson]

Also in the YouGov poll: who do you think should be selected as Joe Biden’s VP?
(Among voters voting for Joe Biden)

Kamala Harris 24%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Stacey Abrams 9%
Susan Rice 6%
Val Demings 3%
Gretchen Whitmer 3%
Keisha Lance Bottoms 2%
Tammy Baldwin 1%
Michelle Lujan Grisham 1%

Females: Harris 22%, Warren 17%, Abrams 10%
Males: Harris 26%, Warren 20%, Abrams 8%
18-29: Warren 25%, Harris 21%, Abrams 8%
Whites: Harris 21%, Warren 18%, Abrams 8%
Blacks: Harris 21%, Warren 19%, Abrams 14%
Hispanics: Harris 37%, Warren 16%, Abrams 6%

I maintain my stance that these polls are largely based on name recognition, but Harris’s strength with Hispanics is interesting. She also seems to have really improved her favorability rating since she dropped out of the primary.

Well, she represents a state with a major Hispanic population and beat a Latina in her 2016 race (I don't know whether she won said group though). Kamala certainly adds gravitas to the ticket. I don't get the disdain for her from a number of folks.

[DisneyDem]

En, i’ve seen a lot of Evan bahh and Tim Kaine speculation from 08, With additional focus on outsiders like Wesley Clark and Chuck Hagel. It’s hard to quantify, but I just don’t think he lead as consistently as TK & KH in the speculation

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/sistercrow/status/1275822804882141184

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/sistercrow/status/1275822804882141184

That shouldn't be particularly surprising, given Harris' law enforcement background. It seems super reductive for some to say that "she meets the moment" when the people who make up the majority of protesters (& the group that most suffers under unjust policing) have expressed that they don't like her.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Subsample health warning as it's the crosstab of young black voters from a full sample of Democratic-leaning voters, but this is in line with most of the other recent polling on the matter. VP preference is largely a function of name recognition, but Harris has plenty of that and should really be doing better given how many establishment Dems have been pseudo-campaigning for her in recent weeks.

Even if picking a progressive is unconscionable, Biden's team could probably create an electorally stronger ticket with a different moderate (e.g. Duckworth). At the very least, it deserves more serious consideration and the arguments regarding Kamala Harris' unique/distinct electoral appeal need to be seriously assessed.

[DisneyDem]

Is it just me or is Duckworth not completely out of it? I feel like being on the platform committee would be less demanding than being the chair of it. Am I wrong?

[politics_king]

Also in the YouGov poll: who do you think should be selected as Joe Biden’s VP?
(Among voters voting for Joe Biden)

Kamala Harris 24%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Stacey Abrams 9%
Susan Rice 6%
Val Demings 3%
Gretchen Whitmer 3%
Keisha Lance Bottoms 2%
Tammy Baldwin 1%
Michelle Lujan Grisham 1%

Females: Harris 22%, Warren 17%, Abrams 10%
Males: Harris 26%, Warren 20%, Abrams 8%
18-29: Warren 25%, Harris 21%, Abrams 8%
Whites: Harris 21%, Warren 18%, Abrams 8%
Blacks: Harris 21%, Warren 19%, Abrams 14%
Hispanics: Harris 37%, Warren 16%, Abrams 6%

That should be a number the Biden campaign should keep its eye on. If Harris can hold up those numbers, do you really choose someone else? Still have another month basically until they come to a decision.

[DisneyDem]

You will all laugh at me, but I still expect secretary Solis to be a Darkhorse near the end

[Progressive Pessimist]

Elizabeth Warren got a DNA test after Trump double dog dared her to, but sure Kamala is the one who has bad political instincts...

Let's be honest the Republican will attack Warren over the Native Americans thing far more than they would attack Harris prosecutorial record. Republicans and especially not Trump of all people are going to attack Harris on criminal justice form the left.

Actually, I think he will try that. But it will come across as the phony, contradictory opportunism that it is.

Again its Trump the worst I see him doing is calling her a cop or Copamala. And like many people said there are many things Harris can brag about from her record. Compare that to Warren whose accomplishment will likely be overshadowed by Trump constantly saying Pocahontas, asking what was her Native American name, or performing the racist Native American war cry for the next 100+ days.

It's even more ironic because Trump is supposed to be pro-cop and "law and order."

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

You will all laugh at me, but I still expect secretary Solis to be a Darkhorse near the end

A massive FF and an S tier VP pick, but if she were still in the running, I would have thought we'd hear she was being vetted right now.

[wbrocks67]

Eh, I wouldn't jump on the black voters 18-34 since that's a very specific sub-sample. She's getting 21% in the YouGov 18-29 sample, so that can't all be the White vote.

Also - she is "meeting the moment." In every moment so far during the past month, she HAS met the moment, and arguably in the Senate, is doing the most trying to get stuff done out of anyone.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/sistercrow/status/1275822804882141184

That shouldn't be particularly surprising, given Harris' law enforcement background. It seems super reductive for some to say that "she meets the moment" when the people who make up the majority of protesters (& the group that most suffers under unjust policing) have expressed that they don't like her.

One poll of a small subsample of young black voters does not = by and large that demographic "doesn't like her"

[wbrocks67]

Subsample health warning as it's the crosstab of young black voters from a full sample of Democratic-leaning voters, but this is in line with most of the other recent polling on the matter. VP preference is largely a function of name recognition, but Harris has plenty of that and should really be doing better given how many establishment Dems have been pseudo-campaigning for her in recent weeks.

Even if picking a progressive is unconscionable, Biden's team could probably create an electorally stronger ticket with a different moderate (e.g. Duckworth). At the very least, it deserves more serious consideration and the arguments regarding Kamala Harris' unique/distinct electoral appeal need to be seriously assessed.

People in this thread need to come back down to reality and realize that Duckworth is never getting picked.

And the point of Harris's unique/distinct "appeal" is that she gets cross support from every single group in that YouGov poll. She gets 20%+ in every single age bracket and every racial demo. No one else does that.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/itnor1/status/1275499949095038977

Anyway, I want to be clear that I like Harris and I hope Biden picks her as his running mate.  But I also agree with Nixon--Harris just isn't that quick on her feet, and isn't a natural politician like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, or even Joe Biden.  She's more like Hillary.  Which is fine!  I love Hillary and think she would have been a superb president.  Campaigning and governing are just two different skill sets, and it's rare for a politician to excel at both.  

Harris is a lot warmer has more charisma. She probably more like George HW. Warren is more like Hillary. Both are fine choices for Vp.

Yeah no, Harris is definitely more Hillary-like than Warren.

Can we stop camparing female politicians to Hillary Clinton when we don't like them? Everyone has their flaws.

Kamala Harris is much more charismatic and personable than Clinton.

On the flip side, let's also stop comparing Republican women to Sarah Palin. I know I have been guilty of it, but it's inappropriate.

You don't get to criticize people's arguments after the **** you've done, kid.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Subsample health warning as it's the crosstab of young black voters from a full sample of Democratic-leaning voters, but this is in line with most of the other recent polling on the matter. VP preference is largely a function of name recognition, but Harris has plenty of that and should really be doing better given how many establishment Dems have been pseudo-campaigning for her in recent weeks.

Even if picking a progressive is unconscionable, Biden's team could probably create an electorally stronger ticket with a different moderate (e.g. Duckworth). At the very least, it deserves more serious consideration and the arguments regarding Kamala Harris' unique/distinct electoral appeal need to be seriously assessed.

People in this thread need to come back down to reality and realize that Duckworth is never getting picked.

Why?

And the point of Harris's unique/distinct "appeal" is that she gets cross support from every single group in that YouGov poll. She gets 20%+ in every single age bracket and every racial demo. No one else does that.

Most of the polls put Warren ahead (including across most or all crosstabs, e.g. the Data for Progress/Vox poll) and, of the candidates whose vetting has been confirmed, she and Klobuchar are the only ones with similar levels of name ID. (I happen to think Klobuchar would have been worse, FWIW.) I'll admit this next bit is subjective, but given how many pols have been hyping up Harris recently, I would expect her rivals to be underperforming relative to where they'd be if and when they got the VP nomination.

I want to stress again that I don't think Harris is an especially bad pick and Biden might choose her for non-electoral reasons anyway. I just think that, electorally speaking, her selection would be something of a wasted opportunity.

[Kleine Scheiße]

She wasn't on my radar before, but Karen Bass seems like a very solid choice.

Bass would be an excellent choice.

Karen Bass would be good as well

It’s happening.

[Da2017]

I've been impressed with Harris lately. She has been front and center.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

She wasn't on my radar before, but Karen Bass seems like a very solid choice.

Bass would be an excellent choice.

Karen Bass would be good as well

It’s happening.

"It takes a Bass to win with the base."

[Ogre Mage]

Duckworth is a very solid candidate on paper.  If there is a dark horse surprise, I think it is most likely to be her.  I believe she passes the "President on Day 1" test.  I don't consider her chances to be high because there is very little pressure from anywhere in the base for her to be the pick.  Part of this is name recognition.  She's up against much better known politicians with considerable fan bases that are applying heavy pressure on Team Biden.  Even Michelle Lujan Grisham -- hardly a juggernaut in the veepstakes -- seems to have more of a push behind her.  If Duckworth had a significant and/or longstanding connection to Biden she might overcome that, but she doesn't appear to have one.

With regards to Bass, my experience is names that get floated this late in the process are not ultimately chosen.  Duckworth has higher political stature and her name has been in the mix all this time.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the reason Bass is now being talked about is because people are being to recognize that Warren is the underdog when compared to Harris or other minority candidates.  Therefore, there's a certain group who are now pushing what they see as a somewhat younger and African American Warren.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

It was me, Austin! It was me, all along, Austin!



I'm drunk I'm sorry.

[dunceDude]

I can't be the only who thinks that a month after Harris is chosen, once she's not competing with anyone intra-party (i.e. it's shill time), the whole mood is going to flip? We're all talking about a very vocal leftist twitter trend but there's not that many of them and they can "lose" on issues, for example Tara Read.

Take also for instance the threads on here "how has your opinion changed on Biden in the last two months", with increasing approval noted generally. People like winners and are not likely to ride hate trains about a ticket up 8-12 points in the polls. sh**t just won't stick. And FWIW the racism from the right is sure to surge after she's chosen, and that'll help rally the woke left (Warren Dems).

[President Biden Democrat]

I think that Biden will in the end pick Harris. I'd prefer Demings but I do believe that Harris qualified. It seems that the Biden team wants to pick a woman of color who has enough experience to be President on Day 1. It seems that Harris is the best choice for him at this point.