Rural Northwest

[memphis]

Many rural counties in the NW quadrant (Dakota, Montana, Northern WY, ID, Washington State) trended Democrat from 2000-2004. This is a traditionally Republican region where the Dems still do very poorly in Presidential contests. Still, why did Kerry do better than Gore in many of these places, when Gore did a few points better nationally? You can now view swing maps under 2004 results on the Atlas, so you can see what I'm talking about.

[Alcon]

My guess would be conservative libertarians dissatisfied with Bush's government size increases.  That is at least what my friends in Montana tell me, although hope springs eternal for them.

[Cubby]

Many rural counties in the NW quadrant (Dakota, Montana, Northern WY, ID, Washington State) trended Democrat from 2000-2004. This is a traditionally Republican region where the Dems still do very poorly in Presidential contests. Still, why did Kerry do better than Gore in many of these places, when Gore did a few points better nationally? You can now view swing maps under 2004 results on the Atlas, so you can see what I'm talking about.

I'm glad you brought that up. I've noticed that for a long time, there was a strong Democrat swing across the entire northern tier of the country, from Montana/North Dakota across the midwest to Northern New England.
Everywhere near Canada except New York State.

I have a unproven theory that the timber industry has something to do with this, since that is a major occupation in these regions. Maybe loggers are mad at Bush over the Canada tarrif issue.

I'd love to eventually find out why. Its been vexing me for months.

[Alcon]

The timber thing is actually a pretty interesting theory.  The second-biggest swing in Washington, Okanogan County, has two big industries:  timber and transporting timber to Canada.

Good theory.

[memphis]

The timber thing is actually a pretty interesting theory.  The second-biggest swing in Washington, Okanogan County, has two big industries:  timber and transporting timber to Canada.

Good theory.

Although I doubt the swing can be pinned down to one cause, I suspect that some people in this part of the country are uncomfortable with the Southern takeover of the Republican party, especially on church/state issues. That being said, the region we're talking about voted heavily Republican last year and I don't see that changing for a long time. It may keep Minnesota Democratic though.

[minionofmidas]

Two things. Guns vs Gays, ie the Republican GOTV effort in rural areas in 2000 compared to that in 2004.
And of course, correction for 2000, which was quite an unusual election in a way.

[Cubby]

The timber thing is actually a pretty interesting theory.  The second-biggest swing in Washington, Okanogan County, has two big industries:  timber and transporting timber to Canada.

Good theory.

Although I doubt the swing can be pinned down to one cause, I suspect that some people in this part of the country are uncomfortable with the Southern takeover of the Republican party, especially on church/state issues. That being said, the region we're talking about voted heavily Republican last year and I don't see that changing for a long time. It may keep Minnesota Democratic though.

If they are worried about the Southern Takeover, over the long term that could help the Dems in extremely republican places like Idaho and North Dakota. I'm not suggesting this would make up for losing many Dixie States but it would be an interesting trend.

I don't have any proof for my timber theory, but I know that its one thing that Maine, Washington and maybe Northern Minnesota have in common. It wouldn't explain ND though. I haven't followed the tariff stories, I just know that its a contentious issue between Canada and the USA.

[Alcon]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

[memphis]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

I was under the impression that there are very few Evanglicals in this part of the country. Please correct me if this is not the case.

[Alcon]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

I was under the impression that there are very few Evanglicals in this part of the country. Please correct me if this is not the case.

Evangelical, no, but religious persons - whether or not they even attend church.

No part of Washington has a very significant evangelical population.

[Hatman 🍁]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

I was under the impression that there are very few Evanglicals in this part of the country. Please correct me if this is not the case.

Evangelical, no, but religious persons - whether or not they even attend church.

No part of Washington has a very significant evangelical population.

I know right across the border in the Fraser Valley of BC is called Canada's Bible Belt. Is the area around Blaine, WA similar?

[Alcon]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

I was under the impression that there are very few Evanglicals in this part of the country. Please correct me if this is not the case.

Evangelical, no, but religious persons - whether or not they even attend church.

No part of Washington has a very significant evangelical population.

I know right across the border in the Fraser Valley of BC is called Canada's Bible Belt. Is the area around Blaine, WA similar?

Not so much Blaine, but the dairy farming area around Lynden is.  Blaine voted Kerry.  Lynden, on the other hand, gave over 75% of the vote to Bush.  The Washington "Bible Belt" extends into the farming towns of Custer (~53%), Delta (~75%), Everson (63%), Ferndale (~55%), Nooksack (~65%), and Ten Mile (~63%).  The Bible Belt does not extend outside of Whatcom County, and is pretty much limited to the centre-north part of the county.  It's what keeps the county only leaning Democratic on the local level.  Lynden is significant in that it has a large Dutch population (as does Custer, but strangely not Nooksack.)

As with most of the west slope of the Cascade Mountains, the rural mountain area in the east of Whatcom County is Democratic.  God knows why.

[Hatman 🍁]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

I was under the impression that there are very few Evanglicals in this part of the country. Please correct me if this is not the case.

Evangelical, no, but religious persons - whether or not they even attend church.

No part of Washington has a very significant evangelical population.

I know right across the border in the Fraser Valley of BC is called Canada's Bible Belt. Is the area around Blaine, WA similar?

Not so much Blaine, but the dairy farming area around Lynden is.  Blaine voted Kerry.  Lynden, on the other hand, gave over 75% of the vote to Bush.  The Washington "Bible Belt" extends into the farming towns of Custer (~53%), Delta (~75%), Everson (63%), Ferndale (~55%), Nooksack (~65%), and Ten Mile (~63%).  The Bible Belt does not extend outside of Whatcom County, and is pretty much limited to the centre-north part of the county.  It's what keeps the county only leaning Democratic on the local level.  Lynden is significant in that it has a large Dutch population (as does Custer, but strangely not Nooksack.)

As with most of the west slope of the Cascade Mountains, the rural mountain area in the east of Whatcom County is Democratic.  God knows why.

Interesting! That coincides perfectly with the B.C. bible belt. Only problem is, I believe there are more people in the BC bible belt.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Fraser Valley area (technically just the south bank of the lower Fraser Valley but...) is basically an exurban area these days

[bgwah]

Solidly Bush, sure.

But counties that are mostly rural and very white giving 40% of their vote to Kerry isn't that bad.

I was thinking that perhaps the Native American vote helped swing Okanogan County?

Church-goers are a minority in Eastern Washington, too! Infact, according to the ARDA, there are only two counties in the entire state where the majority of the population is a member of some domination.

[Alcon]

Solidly Bush, sure.

But counties that are mostly rural and very white giving 40% of their vote to Kerry isn't that bad.

I was thinking that perhaps the Native American vote helped swing Okanogan County?

Church-goers are a minority in Eastern Washington, too! Infact, according to the ARDA, there are only two counties in the entire state where the majority of the population is a member of some domination.

Where can I find this sexy ARDA information?

[bgwah]

Solidly Bush, sure.

But counties that are mostly rural and very white giving 40% of their vote to Kerry isn't that bad.

I was thinking that perhaps the Native American vote helped swing Okanogan County?

Church-goers are a minority in Eastern Washington, too! Infact, according to the ARDA, there are only two counties in the entire state where the majority of the population is a member of some domination.

Where can I find this sexy ARDA information?

http://thearda.com/

I already made a map of it.

[Alcon]

Solidly Bush, sure.

But counties that are mostly rural and very white giving 40% of their vote to Kerry isn't that bad.

I was thinking that perhaps the Native American vote helped swing Okanogan County?

Church-goers are a minority in Eastern Washington, too! Infact, according to the ARDA, there are only two counties in the entire state where the majority of the population is a member of some domination.

Where can I find this sexy ARDA information?

http://thearda.com/

I already made a map of it.

Show me or I will kill Ron Sims.

Edit: Although I'm not sure I buy that few people being religious...

[bgwah]

Solidly Bush, sure.

But counties that are mostly rural and very white giving 40% of their vote to Kerry isn't that bad.

I was thinking that perhaps the Native American vote helped swing Okanogan County?

Church-goers are a minority in Eastern Washington, too! Infact, according to the ARDA, there are only two counties in the entire state where the majority of the population is a member of some domination.

Where can I find this sexy ARDA information?

http://thearda.com/

I already made a map of it.

Show me or I will kill Ron Sims.

Edit: Although I'm not sure I buy that few people being religious...

http://img92.imageshack.us/my.php?image=wareligious8lz.gif


And

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=66382003-0c37-4045-807c-ac9e13111418&q=21339

[Cubby]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

The southern takeover of the Republican party, which will probably continue to annoy libertarians.

Don't they always come out with polls saying that the Northwest is the least religious region of the country? I know that doesn't mean its atheist but I figure that only parts are deeply religious, like Eastern Washington State and Southern Idaho for instance.

[jimrtex]

http://thearda.com/

I already made a map of it.

14 counties in Texas are over 100%.

[minionofmidas]

http://thearda.com/

I already made a map of it.

14 counties in Texas are over 100%.

Yeah, given the methodology that's not impossible.

[bgwah]

http://thearda.com/

I already made a map of it.

14 counties in Texas are over 100%.

Yeah, given the methodology that's not impossible.

It's not perfect, but there's nothing else that even comes close to that website in terms of religious data in the United States! It gives you a general idea.

The census should just ask it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The census should just ask it.

It does over here. And very interesting it is... but there are a couple of problems. First off it's too broad (ie; doesn't ask about seperate denominations with Christianity, Islam etc. And those with "no religion" come to think of it. It'd be interesting to see if the geography of Humanism was different to the geography of Atheism so to speak. I suspect it would be as well...) secondly about 10% or so of the population refused to answer the question and you can't make safe assumptions about them at all... there's a possibility that that tenth skews the figures off badly...

[Galactic Overlord]

It may well be the "libertarian" factor that caused these counties to shift.  Has anyone also thought about the collapse of the Nader vote?  Nader got about 6% in Montana in 2000, but only 1% in 2004. Kerry's 39% is almost exactly that much pickup from Gore's 33%.  Idaho has shifts that I think look similar.

If this is evidence of a Democratic swing, it's happening too slowly to make a difference, at least as far as Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas and Montana are concerned.  Bush did better in Montana both times than Nixon did in 1972.  Ditto Idaho.  There may be geographical shifts in which counties vote more Democrat, but it doesn't seem to be tilting the overall vote.