2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Rumor is that's it's McSally and it will be announced today at noon

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

just cutting down to save space

Face it, if it was a race of generic D vs generic R, all the people above would have lost.

Of course, but thats not what Im talking about. I specified that ideology doesnt make a difference, not other factors, such as personal popularity, appeal, party tag, incumbency, etc.

Without such horrid opponents, its likely Kelly and Joe would have lost, and without the personal popularity the 3 Rs gathered over years and years, its unlikely they would have survived as well. There are other factors in play, but ideology had no discernible difference over both statewide and congressional races.

Do you think ideology exists in a void and in no way effects any of those other factors. Manchin, Baker, Scott etc. are popular because of their ideology and the fact that its not generic d or r

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

*cough* Sinema *cough* only outpreformed *cough* the rest of the ticket *cough cough*, by 2-3 points *cough*.
*ACHOO*
Sorry there, got a cold last weekend.

*cough* Ducey won by 14 points *cough* and the GOP won the Attorney Gneral's race by five *cough* and the Treasure's race by 9 *cough* while Sineme won by 3 points *cough* She outperformed the rest of the ticket significantly *cough*
Sorry I think something is going around.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

[snip]
Sorry, I meant the state legislature results(a good marker for the state's vote without personalities to siphon votes), not the rest of the ticket. Ive issued a correction.

TBH, I have no idea why the percentages are so random, and what would lead to Democrat Hobbs winning the SoS by 0.5%, and while the R AG wins by 5.5%, and so on.

Yeah its all about finding what generic D v. R is. The problem with using state legislative results in general is that many are often unopposed. Arizona elects 2 per district which I feel probably exacerbates this problem.

I would think the best method would be the lowest profile statewide race with both parties but to be honest I have no idea which one that would be, as you have correctly pointed out the margins in the state-wide races are all over the place

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Ducey would lose

He would win. Popular recent Governors have a good record in Senate contests. And in an instance where Kelly wins I expect the Dems to be facing a bad midterm in 2022.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/SenMcSallyAZ/status/1307123253845032960