2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCain was the big story in AZ and since he is gone, AZ is going blue. As a result, Senate race is Lean D

[OneJ]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.   

Lol she’s not a recruit. She is the (appointed) incumbent. While she may have been a weakish pick she is far from a weak candidate overall.

She avoids the public like the plague, is not like by the left or the right, she hardly campaigns at all, and doesn't have any strong following in the state.   

If she couldn't win in a 2018 midterm why would she two years later in a presidential election?   She's not a good candidate and it's insulting she was appointed after losing.

Because the midterm was a D+9 wave year and 2020 is unlikely to be a similar Democratic wave?

Why is it unlikely? It's not *guaranteed* to be a D+9 again, but take a look at the GCB now. They look like they did 2 years ago. Trump's not triangulating, he's going to be the same guy in 2020 he was in 2018.

It is unlikely because the Dems need to run a candidate this time. It’s unlikely for the same reasons the GOP winning big in 2012 were always unlikely (and yet a lot of obituaries for Obama were written on this website in 2010 and 2011 anyway). It is never likely a party will win big two elections in a row, and required an inspiring candidate combined with highly favorable real world circumstances. I doubt that the economy will crash and Harris or whoever ends up being as inspiring as Obama simultaneously.

1. What does 2012 have anything to do with this? Even back then, the environment was noticeably less polarized than it is now.
2. It doesn't have to take a candidate as "inspiring" as Obama to beat Trump or to win a senate seat in Arizona.
3. Since when does it take an economy tanking in order for Kelly to have a shot against McSally?
4. Sure 2020 may not be a D+9 environment like last year and might be something less than that, but that hardly makes it any less likely for a Democrat to win because of Arizona trends anyway.

[pppolitics]

What has she done that’s made her such an awful candidate?

Literally nothing, and that's the problem.

She has done nothing to establish herself as a separate entity from Trump.

[Ilhan Apologist]

What has she done that’s made her such an awful candidate?

Literally nothing, and that's the problem.

She has done nothing to establish herself as a separate entity from Trump.

Sad thing was, she was a Moderate Never Trumper just before she ran for Senate. Then she made an incredibly sloppy pivot to the right.

[pppolitics]

McSally is the fruit that keeps on giving.

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1163813093639479297

[windjammer]

Well,
Either Mcsally loses in 2020 or in 2022 anyway.

[Devout Centrist]

If these folks have Kelly up by five, it's gonna be a slaughter come 2020

[Roronoa D. Law]

Martha starting to run out of senate seats to run in.

[96FJV]

Can we please get Curt Schilling to primary her? That debate would be must-see.

[Oryxslayer]

Martha starting to run out of senate seats to run in.

Utah seems to like Faux Moderates, maybe she can find a way to move north and oust Lee in 2022.

[Politician]

I think people are really underrating the Democrats in the Senate. They're favored in this seat, should easily gain CO and protect all their own seats sans AL, and have Tossup races in NC and ME with opportunities in IA, GA, MT and TX.

[Pollster]

Daniel McCarthy challenging McSally in primary

[Calthrina950]

Daniel McCarthy challenging McSally in primary

McSally has enough problems already. A primary challenge would only weaken her position further against Kelly in the general election.

[President Johnson]

Daniel McCarthy challenging McSally in primary

McSally has enough problems already. A primary challenge would only weaken her position further against Kelly in the general election.

Yes, and that's great. Arizona is a must.win for the Democrats, if they want to regain a majority and ditch Moscow Mitch.

[Calthrina950]

Daniel McCarthy challenging McSally in primary

McSally has enough problems already. A primary challenge would only weaken her position further against Kelly in the general election.

Yes, and that's great. Arizona is a must.win for the Democrats, if they want to regain a majority and ditch Moscow Mitch.

I am no fan of McSally, who has proven herself to be an awful candidate, and has not been a particularly good Senator. So I wouldn't be saddened to see her lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only one that could have beaten Kelly was Ducey, but he wasnt gonna appoint himself

[JMT]

The only one that could have beaten Kelly was Ducey, but he wasnt gonna appoint himself

Remember that the winner of the 2020 AZ senate race will also be on the ballot for a full 6 year term in 2022. If Kelly wins in 2020 (and I expect that he will), I wouldn’t be surprised if Ducey runs against Kelly in 2022.

[Sir Mohamed]

The only one that could have beaten Kelly was Ducey, but he wasnt gonna appoint himself

Remember that the winner of the 2020 AZ senate race will also be on the ballot for a full 6 year term in 2022. If Kelly wins in 2020 (and I expect that he will), I wouldn’t be surprised if Ducey runs against Kelly in 2022.

That would be tough one in a Dem midterm, but still winnable. The 2022 map, however, is pretty favorable with Dems having pick-up opportunities in WI, PA and NC. Only NH may be competitive to a certain degree.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020 is favorable since GA, IA, ME and NC are tossups and CO and AZ are gains. McConnell needs to be defeated, he wont pass election security bills

[HarrisonL]

The only one that could have beaten Kelly was Ducey, but he wasnt gonna appoint himself

Remember that the winner of the 2020 AZ senate race will also be on the ballot for a full 6 year term in 2022. If Kelly wins in 2020 (and I expect that he will), I wouldn’t be surprised if Ducey runs against Kelly in 2022.

Ducey would lose

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Ducey would lose

He would win. Popular recent Governors have a good record in Senate contests. And in an instance where Kelly wins I expect the Dems to be facing a bad midterm in 2022.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This race will be the tipping point.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kelli Ward shows again what a class act she is.

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1169999248177487872

[MT Treasurer]

This race will be the tipping point.

Disagree. If Democrats can’t even beat McSally, they’ve already lost the Senate.

[HarrisonL]

This race will be the tipping point.

Disagree. If Democrats can’t even beat McSally, they’ve already lost the Senate.

I agree, the tipping point race would probably be North Carolina, GA special, Iowa, etc