2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Storr]

So they are basically saying it's him because he wore aviator sunglasses on a different picture. This is weak

MAGA Martha is desperate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If it wasn't him, then the Kelly campaign should identify this mystery man.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If it wasn't him, then the Kelly campaign should identify this mystery man.

It would be McSally's burden of proof.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Acute cases of starvation bring the risk of hallucination.

[Alben Barkley]

If there’s no swastika then there’s no story here.

swastika armband

Did Hitler wear aviator sunglasses?

I don't think so? Anyways even if this is not Kelly somehow, I like how you just point out the one thing that does not match with the costume and ignore the hitler stache and swastika armband.

I like how you say they might “somehow” not be photos of Kelly, as if that would be some incredible thing that’s hard to believe. A witness to the event in question says it’s not him, and the “story” is from an unreliable right-wing source. What more do you need?

A couple more witnesses.

And now you have that too.

Shouldn’t have really needed it anyway. Innocent until proven guilty, especially when the allegation is coming from such a sketchy source.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If there’s no swastika then there’s no story here.

swastika armband

Did Hitler wear aviator sunglasses?

I don't think so? Anyways even if this is not Kelly somehow, I like how you just point out the one thing that does not match with the costume and ignore the hitler stache and swastika armband.

I like how you say they might “somehow” not be photos of Kelly, as if that would be some incredible thing that’s hard to believe. A witness to the event in question says it’s not him, and the “story” is from an unreliable right-wing source. What more do you need?

A couple more witnesses.

And now you have that too.

Shouldn’t have really needed it anyway. Innocent until proven guilty, especially when the allegation is coming from such a sketchy source.

Yeah, it's over.

[Lognog]

She just goes lower and lower, like the  stupidest game of limbo ever played

[Gass3268]

If it wasn't him, then the Kelly campaign should identify this mystery man.

Why the hell should they rat someone else out and ruin their lives just for being stupid in college?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JacobNPeters1/status/1319837808672919553?s=20

There's a reason it appeared on the shiftier side of the GOP apparatus rather than the official campaign arm or something like the NYPost.

[DINGO Joe]

I don't even get why McSally would run with this, is she trying to lose her base to Kelly?

[BudgieForce]

This kind of feels like the ad Elizabeth Dole ran in 2008 against Kay Hagan. It had a woman who sounded an awful lot like Kay Hagan saying "There is no god" over pictures of Hagan. Kay Hagan was a Sunday school teacher, the ad backfired against Dole and she lost by a decent margin.

I reckon this will backfire on McSally too.

[Oryxslayer]

This kind of feels like the ad Elizabeth Dole ran in 2008 against Kay Hagan. It had a woman who sounded an awful lot like Kay Hagan saying "There is no god" over pictures of Hagan. Kay Hagan was a Sunday school teacher, the ad backfired against Dole and she lost by a decent margin.

I reckon this will backfire on McSally too.

I mean, McSally is in a position where things backfiring would mean she loses Pinal, Navajoe, and Yuma - she has already lost the state.

[Sestak]

Pathetic.


Pathetic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Mark should sue.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Remember that one time Roy Cooper did blackface? Yeah

[Blair]

can someone give me a reason to ignore those two recent polls showing McSally winning?

I'm not being a doomer I'm just confused why there's been a relative lack of high quality polling of this race in the past week.

[President Johnson]

can someone give me a reason to ignore those two recent polls showing McSally winning?

I'm not being a doomer I'm just confused why there's been a relative lack of high quality polling of this race in the past week.

Mark Kelly has basically been ahead in every other poll, including high quality ones. Not to mention McSally was ahead on election day in 2018, so polls overestimated her (or underestimated Sinema). Kelly should be fine.

[ProgressiveModerate]

can someone give me a reason to ignore those two recent polls showing McSally winning?

I'm not being a doomer I'm just confused why there's been a relative lack of high quality polling of this race in the past week.

I think that so many high quality polls have re-confirmed this race is a pretty safe bet for Ds that it's no longer the best use of resources to keep polling the state. The internal polls re typically used for noise. Kelly's chances are going down in my model because of this which is really bugging me

[GeneralMacArthur]

can someone give me a reason to ignore those two recent polls showing McSally winning?

I'm not being a doomer I'm just confused why there's been a relative lack of high quality polling of this race in the past week.

They are both from Republican firms.  Probably just trying to lure Democrats into wasting money on a safe race.

[Xing]

Welp, that settles that. We know how this is going to end.

Inevitable AZ results:

McSally 50.2%
Kelly 46.8%

Trump 47.2%
Biden 46.5%

#EveryRaceIsARedux

[7,052,770]

It's not Kelly so it doesn't really matter, but that's also not a swastika armband unless the photo is reversed or he's wearing it inside out and the pattern goes all the way through. If it is a swastika (we can't see the back half), it's backward from the way the Nazis wore it:

[DaleCooper]

It's tough to tell exactly what design he used on the armband because the picture is so low-resolution, but that guy is obviously dressed as Hitler. Why the Republicans think that an unrelated man dressed as the personification of evil will have any impact on Mark Kelly's campaign is a different question.

[GeneralMacArthur]

PredictIt dropped Mark Kelly down to 70%, when he was previously in the mid-80s for the entirety of the race.

Arizona posters, is there any indication whatsoever that this "scandal" is actually going to hurt Kelly?

If your state votes for Martha McSally because someone found a picture from 40 years ago of a guy who's not Mark Kelly dressed up as maybe Hitler for Halloween, then you are the new dumbest state in the union.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Kelly has enough of a buffer that this won’t really hurt him. unlike sexting scandal, which didn’t even hurt Cal’d head to head, this really hasn’t gotten much direct media from what I’ve seen; if anything I’ve seen more media doubting it

[Xing]

The fact that Trump’s re-election is above 40 cents on PredictIt should tell you all you need to know about that site.