2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Blair]

A lot of this current republican crop got to play politics on the easy settings; depressed democratic turnout, a massive cash advantage (both direct dollars & dark money) & the easy punching bag of Obamacare.

You could say the same for the current democratic bench; tons of money, historically unpopular president & easy punching bag of pre-existing conditions.

The problem (and one that the Democrats were guilty of- see Mark Udall) is that when you're getting outraised, attacked & struggling its very easy to fall back to outlandish & stupd attacks on your opponent; politics & political journalists love a repeating story & McSally has been a repeating disaster for years.

[Calthrina950]

A lot of this current republican crop got to play politics on the easy settings; depressed democratic turnout, a massive cash advantage (both direct dollars & dark money) & the easy punching bag of Obamacare.

You could say the same for the current democratic bench; tons of money, historically unpopular president & easy punching bag of pre-existing conditions.

The problem (and one that the Democrats were guilty of- see Mark Udall) is that when you're getting outraised, attacked & struggling its very easy to fall back to outlandish & stupd attacks on your opponent; politics & political journalists love a repeating story & McSally has been a repeating disaster for years.

This almost perfectly describes Susan Collins' situation in 2014, when she won a 2-1 landslide. Collins is another example of a Republican incumbent who, when confronted with a serious challenge in a competitive environment, is unable to adequately cope. Joni Ernst, of course, meets this definition as well.

[Blair]

A lot of this current republican crop got to play politics on the easy settings; depressed democratic turnout, a massive cash advantage (both direct dollars & dark money) & the easy punching bag of Obamacare.

You could say the same for the current democratic bench; tons of money, historically unpopular president & easy punching bag of pre-existing conditions.

The problem (and one that the Democrats were guilty of- see Mark Udall) is that when you're getting outraised, attacked & struggling its very easy to fall back to outlandish & stupd attacks on your opponent; politics & political journalists love a repeating story & McSally has been a repeating disaster for years.

This almost perfectly describes Susan Collins' situation in 2014, when she won a 2-1 landslide. Collins is another example of a Republican incumbent who, when confronted with a serious challenge in a competitive environment, is unable to adequately cope. Joni Ernst, of course, meets this definition as well.

Collins to her credit has actually ran statewide races which were relatively tough; but yes she was very lucky to run in two waves that were helpful (2002 & 2014) & in an era where she could coast on her brand, Maine's own weirdness as as retail politics state & a weak democratic effort.

It's more similar to Bill Nelson in my view; who had plenty of tough races but didn't seem to understand that politics had changed over the last decade.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Does any Arizona Democrat want to start a Democrats for Mcsally PAC to encourage her to run for Governor in 2022?

[Lognog]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/22/trump-is-making-martha-mcsallys-life-very-difficult/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2c46c54%2F5f91b1ca9d2fda0efb5153bb%2F59812affade4e26514d874e1%2F15%2F71%2F48d3c19102cf746e2704e0caa526fa6d

very dumb take from the Washington Post. It blames Trump for why McSally is losing. There is one person responsible for McSally losing two senate races, and her name is Martha McSally

[Lognog]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/22/trump-is-making-martha-mcsallys-life-very-difficult/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2c46c54%2F5f91b1ca9d2fda0efb5153bb%2F59812affade4e26514d874e1%2F15%2F71%2F48d3c19102cf746e2704e0caa526fa6d

very dumb take from the Washington Post. It blames Trump for why McSally is losing. There is one person responsible for McSally losing two senate races, and her name is Martha McSally

it's insane that she is going this hard right in 2020 when there was no major primary challenge. Like ok, fine, go a bit far right in 2018 when you have Arpaio and Ward against you. But there is no reason to do this now 

[Torrain]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/22/trump-is-making-martha-mcsallys-life-very-difficult/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2c46c54%2F5f91b1ca9d2fda0efb5153bb%2F59812affade4e26514d874e1%2F15%2F71%2F48d3c19102cf746e2704e0caa526fa6d

very dumb take from the Washington Post. It blames Trump for why McSally is losing. There is one person responsible for McSally losing two senate races, and her name is Martha McSally

it's insane that she is going this hard right in 2020 when there was no major primary challenge. Like ok, fine, go a bit far right in 2018 when you have Arpaio and Ward against you. But there is no reason to do this now 

Exactly. Especially given the lack of primary challenge, and the fact that a 2026 reelect would take place in an even more Dem-leaning AZ. She should have emulated the strategt of the last candidate to win a Senate race in AZ and run towards the centre like Sinema.

[LabourJersey]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/22/trump-is-making-martha-mcsallys-life-very-difficult/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2c46c54%2F5f91b1ca9d2fda0efb5153bb%2F59812affade4e26514d874e1%2F15%2F71%2F48d3c19102cf746e2704e0caa526fa6d

very dumb take from the Washington Post. It blames Trump for why McSally is losing. There is one person responsible for McSally losing two senate races, and her name is Martha McSally

it's insane that she is going this hard right in 2020 when there was no major primary challenge. Like ok, fine, go a bit far right in 2018 when you have Arpaio and Ward against you. But there is no reason to do this now 

Exactly. Especially given the lack of primary challenge, and the fact that a 2026 reelect would take place in an even more Dem-leaning AZ. She should have emulated the strategy of the last candidate to win a Senate race in AZ and run towards the centre like Sinema.

This seat is up in 2022 (remember, it's a special to fill McCain's old seat).

[Torrain]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/22/trump-is-making-martha-mcsallys-life-very-difficult/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2c46c54%2F5f91b1ca9d2fda0efb5153bb%2F59812affade4e26514d874e1%2F15%2F71%2F48d3c19102cf746e2704e0caa526fa6d

very dumb take from the Washington Post. It blames Trump for why McSally is losing. There is one person responsible for McSally losing two senate races, and her name is Martha McSally

it's insane that she is going this hard right in 2020 when there was no major primary challenge. Like ok, fine, go a bit far right in 2018 when you have Arpaio and Ward against you. But there is no reason to do this now 

Exactly. Especially given the lack of primary challenge, and the fact that a 2026 reelect would take place in an even more Dem-leaning AZ. She should have emulated the strategy of the last candidate to win a Senate race in AZ and run towards the centre like Sinema.

This seat is up in 2022 (remember, it's a special to fill McCain's old seat).

Point taken. I guess it makes sense for her to imagine that the state could be more Trumpy in 2022.

It still feels like a bad strategy on her part though.

[lfromnj]

https://nationalfile.com/exclusive-democrat-senate-candidate-mark-kellys-yearbook-shows-him-dressed-as-hitler/

Nationalfile so take with a huge grain of salt. I doubt this even matters in the end but still
lol.

I don't even think its Hitler, seems like a nothingburger .

[Gass3268]

If I’m Mark, I’m blaming my twin brother on this.

[Sestak]

https://nationalfile.com/exclusive-democrat-senate-candidate-mark-kellys-yearbook-shows-him-dressed-as-hitler/

Nationalfile so take with a huge grain of salt. I doubt this even matters in the end but still
lol.

I don't even think its Hitler, seems like a nothingburger .

ON Prog pointed out it's probably the guy from Top Gun.

[henster]

If there’s no swastika then there’s no story here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ah yes, Adolf Hitler, love of sunglasses.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JacobNPeters1/status/1319785888054800385?s=19

That should clear that up..

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If there’s no swastika then there’s no story here.

swastika armband

[Suburbia]

Kelly still wins, but people shouldn't wear blackface or Nazi uniforms.

[Mr.Phips]

If there’s no swastika then there’s no story here.

swastika armband

Did Hitler wear aviator sunglasses?

[Alben Barkley]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jacobnpeters1/status/1319785888054800385?prefetchtime...

Not photos of Kelly.

Fake news!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If there’s no swastika then there’s no story here.

swastika armband

Did Hitler wear aviator sunglasses?

I don't think so? Anyways even if this is not Kelly somehow, I like how you just point out the one thing that does not match with the costume and ignore the hitler stache and swastika armband.

[WD]

Kelly is a charitable man. He’s trying to narrow the race so McSally supporters don’t have to go hungry anymore.

[Alben Barkley]

If there’s no swastika then there’s no story here.

swastika armband

Did Hitler wear aviator sunglasses?

I don't think so? Anyways even if this is not Kelly somehow, I like how you just point out the one thing that does not match with the costume and ignore the hitler stache and swastika armband.

I like how you say they might “somehow” not be photos of Kelly, as if that would be some incredible thing that’s hard to believe. A witness to the event in question says it’s not him, and the “story” is from an unreliable right-wing source. What more do you need?

[Gracile]

A second person who claims to be in this photo says the person in question is not Kelly:

https://twitter.com/JacobNPeters1/status/1319792307982397441

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If there’s no swastika then there’s no story here.

swastika armband

Did Hitler wear aviator sunglasses?

I don't think so? Anyways even if this is not Kelly somehow, I like how you just point out the one thing that does not match with the costume and ignore the hitler stache and swastika armband.

I like how you say they might “somehow” not be photos of Kelly, as if that would be some incredible thing that’s hard to believe. A witness to the event in question says it’s not him, and the “story” is from an unreliable right-wing source. What more do you need?

A couple more witnesses.

[kph14]

So they are basically saying it's him because he wore aviator sunglasses on a different picture. This is weak