2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[KaiserDave]

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Arizona's GOP bench is surprisingly weak. The remaining members of the congressional delegation are all either far-right lunatics (Lesko, Biggs, Gosar) or are bogged down by ethics issues (Schweikert).

I think his logic was that she could take the L this year, allowing him to take the seat back in 2022. We'll see if his approval recovers by then.

People were talking about her as a future Presidential contender in mid-2018 and she was still considered a strong candidate when appointed

Ah...spring 2018. So young and naive.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Arizona's GOP bench is surprisingly weak. The remaining members of the congressional delegation are all either far-right lunatics (Lesko, Biggs, Gosar) or are bogged down by ethics issues (Schweikert).

I think his logic was that she could take the L this year, allowing him to take the seat back in 2022. We'll see if his approval recovers by then.

People were talking about her as a future Presidential contender in mid-2018 and she was still considered a strong candidate when appointed

Ah...spring 2018. So young and naive.

I recall it being a pretty common idea back when Ducey appointed her, immediately after being rejected by the voters, that she was DOA for the election this year.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Arizona's GOP bench is surprisingly weak. The remaining members of the congressional delegation are all either far-right lunatics (Lesko, Biggs, Gosar) or are bogged down by ethics issues (Schweikert).

I think his logic was that she could take the L this year, allowing him to take the seat back in 2022. We'll see if his approval recovers by then.

I guess I wasn't following Arizona politics too closely back then.  Was AG Mark Brnovich ever considered for the seat?  He seems like he would have been a reasonable choice and probably a better candidate this year.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Arizona's GOP bench is surprisingly weak. The remaining members of the congressional delegation are all either far-right lunatics (Lesko, Biggs, Gosar) or are bogged down by ethics issues (Schweikert).

I think his logic was that she could take the L this year, allowing him to take the seat back in 2022. We'll see if his approval recovers by then.

I guess I wasn't following Arizona politics too closely back then.  Was AG Mark Brnovich ever considered for the seat?  He seems like he would have been a reasonable choice and probably a better candidate this year.

No, McSally was still considered a future POTUS frontrunner so she got appointed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Arizona's GOP bench is surprisingly weak. The remaining members of the congressional delegation are all either far-right lunatics (Lesko, Biggs, Gosar) or are bogged down by ethics issues (Schweikert).

I think his logic was that she could take the L this year, allowing him to take the seat back in 2022. We'll see if his approval recovers by then.

I guess I wasn't following Arizona politics too closely back then.  Was AG Mark Brnovich ever considered for the seat?  He seems like he would have been a reasonable choice and probably a better candidate this year.

No, McSally was still considered a future POTUS frontrunner so she got appointed.

Amazing how quickly rising stars can burn out and start a dumpster fire

[Blair]

There's a funny piece of revionism about the appointment being done for Ducey to win in 2022 but that ignores the fact that if he wanted a placeholder he could have appointed someone from his staff or some hack from the local party. He then easily could have either ran in the 2020 special election or in 2024 against Sinema.

Besides it wasn't assumed that McSally would lose this race; Kelly wasn't known to be running when she was appointed & although she ran a poor campaign it wasn't this awful. If he really wanted someone to lose the seat he could have appointed someone much worse like Ward

McSally was appointed because she was seen as the strongest choice & because they hoped she could use her Senate seat to save this race in 2020.

[GALeftist]

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Arizona's GOP bench is surprisingly weak. The remaining members of the congressional delegation are all either far-right lunatics (Lesko, Biggs, Gosar) or are bogged down by ethics issues (Schweikert).

I think his logic was that she could take the L this year, allowing him to take the seat back in 2022. We'll see if his approval recovers by then.

People were talking about her as a future Presidential contender in mid-2018 and she was still considered a strong candidate when appointed

Ah...spring 2018. So young and naive.

I recall it being a pretty common idea back when Ducey appointed her, immediately after being rejected by the voters, that she was DOA for the election this year.

I don't think even the proponents of that notion had any idea how true it was at the time, though.

[Lognog]

There's a funny piece of revionism about the appointment being done for Ducey to win in 2022 but that ignores the fact that if he wanted a placeholder he could have appointed someone from his staff or some hack from the local party. He then easily could have either ran in the 2020 special election or in 2024 against Sinema.

Besides it wasn't assumed that McSally would lose this race; Kelly wasn't known to be running when she was appointed & although she ran a poor campaign it wasn't this awful. If he really wanted someone to lose the seat he could have appointed someone much worse like Ward

McSally was appointed because she was seen as the strongest choice & because they hoped she could use her Senate seat to save this race in 2020.

This. In fact they already had a place holder, Kyle

[Xing]

Pepperidge Farm wants to send out its semi-monthly reminder that McSally was considered "moderate" and a "rising star" not too long ago.

[Del Tachi]

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Assuming Ducey wanted a woman, Eileen Klein or Karrin Robson look like much better choices in retrospect. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

With the filing deadline now having passed, 17 candidates have secured write-in status in this election: 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans, 1 Libertarian, 1 "independent Republican", 1 Unity and 7 independent candidates.

[Roll Roons]

Have we gotten Q3 fundraising numbers from either of them?

[tenyasha]

There's a funny piece of revionism about the appointment being done for Ducey to win in 2022 but that ignores the fact that if he wanted a placeholder he could have appointed someone from his staff or some hack from the local party. He then easily could have either ran in the 2020 special election or in 2024 against Sinema.

Besides it wasn't assumed that McSally would lose this race; Kelly wasn't known to be running when she was appointed & although she ran a poor campaign it wasn't this awful. If he really wanted someone to lose the seat he could have appointed someone much worse like Ward

McSally was appointed because she was seen as the strongest choice & because they hoped she could use her Senate seat to save this race in 2020.

Pretty sure Ducey wants to be president though its probably even less likely now

[wbrocks67]

Welp, McSally is definitely gonna ask her supporters to fast again after this

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1316742122117246977/photo/1

[Pollster]

Pepperidge Farm wants to send out its semi-monthly reminder that McSally was considered "moderate" and a "rising star" not too long ago.

McSally is perhaps the perfect example of how Trump has set the GOP back for potentially the foreseeable future: a candidate like McSally, who once had demonstrable appeal to the voters the GOP needs to win, is about to be defeated (potentially by a large margin) by those exact voters because she rebranded herself as a Trump acolyte for pure political survival.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pepperidge Farm wants to send out its semi-monthly reminder that McSally was considered "moderate" and a "rising star" not too long ago.

McSally is perhaps the perfect example of how Trump has set the GOP back for potentially the foreseeable future: a candidate like McSally, who once had demonstrable appeal to the voters the GOP needs to win, is about to be defeated (potentially by a large margin) by those exact voters because she rebranded herself as a Trump acolyte for pure political survival.

TBF though, while it has accelerated some trends in favor of the Democrats faster than normal, it has also been able to appeal to people in rural areas in particular, which is really useful in the senate. Trumpism is what blocked Heidi Heitkamp from winning ND in 2018, for instance; I bet if Kasich or someone like that won she would still have had a very good chance of holding on.

[Pollster]

Pepperidge Farm wants to send out its semi-monthly reminder that McSally was considered "moderate" and a "rising star" not too long ago.

McSally is perhaps the perfect example of how Trump has set the GOP back for potentially the foreseeable future: a candidate like McSally, who once had demonstrable appeal to the voters the GOP needs to win, is about to be defeated (potentially by a large margin) by those exact voters because she rebranded herself as a Trump acolyte for pure political survival.

TBF though, while it has accelerated some trends in favor of the Democrats faster than normal, it has also been able to appeal to people in rural areas in particular, which is really useful in the senate. Trumpism is what blocked Heidi Heitkamp from winning ND in 2018, for instance; I bet if Kasich or someone like that won she would still have had a very good chance of holding on.

I don't think Heitkamp's loss necessarily proves that Trump has strengthened the GOP in rural states - Heitkamp still managed to get 44% in high turnout election in a state where Clinton barely broke 25% and the Democrats barely have an established apparatus, overperforming HRC by more in defeat than she did Obama in victory. Certainly some of this was due to personal appeal, but it was largely due to the same trends that flipped AZ, got Tester over 50% in MT, made TX a 3-point race, and almost got a Dem elected Governor of SD. Trumpism is essentially a short-term electoral strategy of maxing out in shrinking areas while hemorrhaging support in growing areas - it only works so long as the shrinking areas sizably outnumber the growing areas, and it isn't sustainable.

[VAR]

lol

McSally campaign ad confuses Mark Kelly with twin brother

[Roll Roons]

How the hell did she win twice in a swingy House district if her political instincts are this terrible?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How the hell did she win twice in a swingy House district if her political instincts are this terrible?

McCain was there to hold the fort for most Rs in the state, just like Teddy Kennedy held the fort down on the Judiciary, but since they aren't here,no one lives forever with terminal illnesses, then D's and Rs alike have to come to terms without them

[Lognog]

lol

McSally campaign ad confuses Mark Kelly with twin brother

wow sometimes it's like I'm fasting for nothing

[Blair]

lol

McSally campaign ad confuses Mark Kelly with twin brother

This ad also makes no sense considering that Mark Kelly is *checks notes* a fighter pilot

[SevenEleven]

How the hell did she win twice in a swingy House district if her political instincts are this terrible?

She did lose in 2012 despite Mitt Romney winning the district by two points. I don't think she's ever demonstrated significant appeal, within her party or to the broader electorate.

[Roll Roons]

How the hell did she win twice in a swingy House district if her political instincts are this terrible?

She did lose in 2012 despite Mitt Romney winning the district by two points. I don't think she's ever demonstrated significant appeal, within her party or to the broader electorate.

She also won by 14 in 2016, albeit over a weak opponent, while Hillary carried her district by 5. I think she has genuinely gotten weaker.

[Torrain]

How the hell did she win twice in a swingy House district if her political instincts are this terrible?

She did lose in 2012 despite Mitt Romney winning the district by two points. I don't think she's ever demonstrated significant appeal, within her party or to the broader electorate.

She also won by 14 in 2016, albeit over a weak opponent, while Hillary carried her district by 5. I think she has genuinely gotten weaker.

I think having to shape her existing politics to fit a more Trumpian mold has probably throw her out of her comfort zone. She just doesn't sound comfortable with the canned lines about 'Counterfeit Kelly', and she when she was fighting a primary against Ward and Arpaio, her attempts to run to the right came off as self-conscious.

I'm not saying she's a moderate, I'm just wondering whether she was more suited in the party of Romney, who she signed up to run for back in '12 and '14.