CO-SEN Megathread: Cory In The House

[pppolitics]

Where Is Cory Gardner?

As the Senate impeachment trial of President Trump nears, the Republican senator from Colorado has gone to ground as he tries to keep moderates and independents in his corner while facing a tough re-election race.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/19/us/politics/cory-gardner-colorado-trump.html

[Brittain33]

I’m visiting Colorado this week and getting Facebook ads with a video of Cory asking me to help him fight to keep our majority.

[Non Swing Voter]

So does Cory have no chance now and is going to still vote like a GOP hardliner to secure a Fox News show after he loses?

[Calthrina950]

So does Cory have no chance now and is going to still vote like a GOP hardliner to secure a Fox News show after he loses?

Gardner has never had a chance. His behavior during the impeachment trial will seal his fate, as we all know that he is going to acquit Trump. He's not going to be able to justify that to suburban voters in Colorado who do not approve of Trump, at all.

[MT Treasurer]

So does Cory have no chance now and is going to still vote like a GOP hardliner to secure a Fox News show after he loses?

Gardner has never had a chance. His behavior during the impeachment trial will seal his fate, as we all know that he is going to acquit Trump. He's not going to be able to justify that to suburban voters in Colorado who do not approve of Trump, at all.

If he votes to convict Trump, he’ll be in an even worse position.

[Calthrina950]

So does Cory have no chance now and is going to still vote like a GOP hardliner to secure a Fox News show after he loses?

Gardner has never had a chance. His behavior during the impeachment trial will seal his fate, as we all know that he is going to acquit Trump. He's not going to be able to justify that to suburban voters in Colorado who do not approve of Trump, at all.

If he votes to convict Trump, he’ll be in an even worse position.

Either way, it's a devil's dilemma for Gardner, just like it is for Susan Collins. And Gardner is much weaker in the polls, and is facing a more formidable opponent, than she is.

[Sir Mohamed]

So does Cory have no chance now and is going to still vote like a GOP hardliner to secure a Fox News show after he loses?

Gardner has never had a chance. His behavior during the impeachment trial will seal his fate, as we all know that he is going to acquit Trump. He's not going to be able to justify that to suburban voters in Colorado who do not approve of Trump, at all.

If he votes to convict Trump, he’ll be in an even worse position.

Either way, it's a devil's dilemma for Gardner, just like it is for Susan Collins. And Gardner is much weaker in the polls, and is facing a more formidable opponent, than she is.

If I were him, I'd at least vote for witnesses, but to aquit Trump in the end. At this point, it seems, the dude isn't even trying anymore. He's not even pretended to be more reasonable. He's been a partisan hack since the start.

[Calthrina950]

So does Cory have no chance now and is going to still vote like a GOP hardliner to secure a Fox News show after he loses?

Gardner has never had a chance. His behavior during the impeachment trial will seal his fate, as we all know that he is going to acquit Trump. He's not going to be able to justify that to suburban voters in Colorado who do not approve of Trump, at all.

If he votes to convict Trump, he’ll be in an even worse position.

Either way, it's a devil's dilemma for Gardner, just like it is for Susan Collins. And Gardner is much weaker in the polls, and is facing a more formidable opponent, than she is.

If I were him, I'd at least vote for witnesses, but to aquit Trump in the end. At this point, it seems, the dude isn't even trying anymore. He's not even pretended to be more reasonable. He's been a partisan hack since the start.

I have a personal anecdote to share. Yesterday was the beginning of my final semester of college, and in my Environmental Policy class, we were asked to introduce ourselves. One of the other students in the class mentioned that he was going to be working for Cory Gardner's reelection campaign. Moreover, my Professor for that class is a friend of Gardner's. I was thinking to myself, when the student said that, that he would be working for a vain cause, since Gardner is doomed. At this point, the only real question is the margin by which he loses by. Will it be 5 points? Or 10 points?

[MarkD]

I think you guys are too quick to write off Sen. Gardner as a sure loser. Colorado is still a pretty elastic state. CO-06 was re-electing Republican Mike Coffman while voting Democrat for President in both 2012 and 2016. The state voted for Clinton by a margin slightly less than 5 percentage points, and 8.59% voted for someone other than Clinton or Trump. Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato, and Politico all rate this senate race as a tossup. Why is Atlas treating it as Likely D or Safe D?

[We Live in Black and White]

I think you guys are too quick to write off Sen. Gardner as a sure loser. Colorado is still a pretty elastic state. CO-06 was re-electing Republican Mike Coffman while voting Democrat for President in both 2012 and 2016. The state voted for Clinton by a margin slightly less than 5 percentage points, and 8.59% voted for someone other than Clinton or Trump. Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato, and Politico all rate this senate race as a tossup. Why is Atlas treating it as Likely D or Safe D?

Because the election prognosticators are a bunch of legendarily blithering idiots. Anyone with the capability of interpreting trends knows full well that Colorado is ancient history for the GOP.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I think you guys are too quick to write off Sen. Gardner as a sure loser. Colorado is still a pretty elastic state. CO-06 was re-electing Republican Mike Coffman while voting Democrat for President in both 2012 and 2016. The state voted for Clinton by a margin slightly less than 5 percentage points, and 8.59% voted for someone other than Clinton or Trump. Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato, and Politico all rate this senate race as a tossup. Why is Atlas treating it as Likely D or Safe D?

Trump incredibly unpopular + influx of college educated voters and latinos + Dem trifecta and resounding statewide victories in 2018 + Gardner is a rather unremarkable incumbent

Worth noting that Coffman lost in 2018 and it wasn't even particularly close. He paid the Trump tax that the statewide GOP is paying.

[Gracile]

I think you guys are too quick to write off Sen. Gardner as a sure loser. Colorado is still a pretty elastic state. CO-06 was re-electing Republican Mike Coffman while voting Democrat for President in both 2012 and 2016. The state voted for Clinton by a margin slightly less than 5 percentage points, and 8.59% voted for someone other than Clinton or Trump. Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato, and Politico all rate this senate race as a tossup. Why is Atlas treating it as Likely D or Safe D?

Those same prognosticators still have AL-SEN as Tossup/Lean R when that race is pretty clearly much less favorable to Democrats, so I wouldn't take their word as definitive. Your post also ignores the subsequent changes in the political landscape since 2012 and even 2016 in places like Colorado (a higher degree of polarization at the federal level, especially among voters who would have been willing to vote Republican for Senator or House before but not now since Trump took office).

Not to mention Gardner's win in 2014 was a huge fluke in the first place, and he's unlikely to luck into the same circumstances again.

[DaWN]

Why is Atlas treating it as Likely D or Safe D?

Because it is Likely/Safe D

[QAnonKelly]

He drove the nail in his coffin. He might as well quit while he’s ahead.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump incredibly unpopular + influx of college educated voters and latinos + Dem trifecta and resounding statewide victories in 2018 + Gardner is a rather unremarkable incumbent

Trump incredibly unpopular + influx of college educated voters and latinos + Dem trifecta and resounding statewide victories in 2018 + Gardner is a rather unremarkable incumbent = Likely D

Trump incredibly unpopular + influx of college educated voters and latinos + Dem trifecta and resounding statewide victories in 2018 + Gardner is a rather unremarkable incumbent + Gory Gardner's marijuana bill = Tossup

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1223356323204603906

As if we need any more  indicators that Hick has this in the bag.

[Gracile]

I wish Sanders would have endorsed Romanoff. Maybe then his fundraising would be better, and he might have a fighting chance (or at least more of a chance than now).

As much as I like what Sanders stands for, it's frustrating that he hasn't done more to boost progressive candidates down-ballot this cycle.

[DaWN]

I wish Sanders would have endorsed Romanoff. Maybe then his fundraising would be better, and he might have a fighting chance (or at least more than now).

As much as I like what Sanders, it's frustrating that he hasn't done more to boost progressive candidates down-ballot this cycle.

Sanders doesn't want to waste his time endorsing a candidate who has no chance. It's also possible he doesn't want to do anything to push Hickenlooper further away from the left, like, for instance, antagonising him by pointlessly endorsing his primary opponent.

[Gracile]

I wish Sanders would have endorsed Romanoff. Maybe then his fundraising would be better, and he might have a fighting chance (or at least more than now).

As much as I like what Sanders, it's frustrating that he hasn't done more to boost progressive candidates down-ballot this cycle.

Sanders doesn't want to waste his time endorsing a candidate who has no chance. It's also possible he doesn't want to do anything to push Hickenlooper further away from the left, like, for instance, antagonising him by pointlessly endorsing his primary opponent.

Hickenlooper would firmly oppose Sanders' legislation regardless of whether he endorsed his opponent.

[DaWN]

I wish Sanders would have endorsed Romanoff. Maybe then his fundraising would be better, and he might have a fighting chance (or at least more than now).

As much as I like what Sanders, it's frustrating that he hasn't done more to boost progressive candidates down-ballot this cycle.

Sanders doesn't want to waste his time endorsing a candidate who has no chance. It's also possible he doesn't want to do anything to push Hickenlooper further away from the left, like, for instance, antagonising him by pointlessly endorsing his primary opponent.

Hickenlooper would firmly oppose Sanders' legislation regardless of whether he endorsed his opponent.

No he wouldn't. He would vote like a generic D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1223356323204603906

As if we need any more  indicators that Hick has this in the bag.

Hick will be among my favorite senators!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled against Michelle Ferrigno Warren. A lower court judge had earlier ruled against the original signature petition requirement as both she and Lorena Garcia were over halfway to reaching it and because of difficulties collecting signatures thanks to COVID, but she has now been removed from the ballot (in theory, she could appeal against this to a higher court).

Lorena Garcia is much closer to the threshold but the Sec of State is bringing a case against her (which will likely be fast-tracked as the ballot is certified on Thursday) and the precedent set here means she will probably be removed from the ballot (having been placed on it by a lower court's judge). The case is only being brought, ostensibly, because of the Sec of State (who originally opined that other candidates might be able to get onto the ballot) wants a universal standard applied to their candidacies. The likely outcome would reduce the race to Hickenlooper vs. Romanoff.

Edit: a correction - the Sec of State had originally argued other candidates could get onto the ballot, but called for a universal standard to be applied after the lower court judge ruled that other candidates couldn't get onto the ballot because they hadn't gotten half the signatures required, but that Garcia and Warren could.
Edit 2: I was behind on events - the Supreme Court ruled against Garcia's candidacy today. It is Hickenlooper vs Romanoff.

[The Mikado]

So is Hickenlooper's nomination now in doubt given that it's now a one on one? Or is he still going to effortlessly cruise?

[SnowLabrador]

So is Hickenlooper's nomination now in doubt given that it's now a one on one? Or is he still going to effortlessly cruise?

Hickenlooper will easily defeat Andrew Romanoff and Cory Gardner.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So is Hickenlooper's nomination now in doubt given that it's now a one on one? Or is he still going to effortlessly cruise?

I'd guess the nomination is likely Hickenlooper, closer to safe than lean. Romanoff raised ~$400k in the first quarter of 2020, much better than his ~$300k in the previous quarter (he had ~$800k on hand at the end of Q1 2020) but badly trailing Hickenlooper's $4.1m.

Romanoff has probably been boosted by the Senate caucuses breaking overwhelmingly in his favour and there now looks to be a late coalescing of progressive politicians around him - Diana Bray, Our Revolution's Denver Branch and the Sunrise Movement endorsed him in the last few days. That said, the dominance of coronavirus in the news and the way it limits grassroots campaigning/rallies means it's really hard to change the status quo in a race (especially given Hickenlooper's tendency to skip debates - 19 so far). The polling status quo is probably heavily in favour of Hickenlooper, but the caucuses and the potential for uniting progressives under one banner (as Biden did with moderates) introduces an element of doubt into that.