SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Never too early, right?

So, let's recap the main races of SC in 2020.


SC-1: Likely to be the most watched race in the state, Democrat Joe Cunningham pulled off a narrow win against State Rep. Katie Arrington. This district is based around the coast, stretching from Hilton Head Island in the South, up through most of Charleston, and tracks along the coast to the Santee River. One blob extends north to take Summerville and Monck's Corner. Depending on who runs, and how Cunningham votes, this could go either way for now.

SC-2: Currently represented by Republican Joe Wilson, this district extends from Augusta's NE suburbs to Aiken, before swinging around Columbia, taking most of the white suburbs. The district is usually R, but under perfect conditions it could flip. Those perfect conditions aren't happening though. Pretty much safe, but could become likely.

SC-3: My district, which goes from the Augusta NW suburbs through to Greenwood and Anderson, taking Oconee and Pickens counties (home of Clemson) and takes a good portion of the Greenville suburbs, including about a third to a half of the minority heavy ones. Even if he had a Roy Moore-esque scandal and was found to be part of a satanic cult, he would still win. Titanium R.


SC-4: The smallest district, it encompasses most of Greenville and Spartanburg counties. Trey Gowdy's old district, soon to be represented by William Timmons, who narrowly fought off arch-conservative Lee Bright for the nomination, and easily fended off a Democratic challenge. Due to the growing metros, it is trending a bit more Dem, but for now it's very much a Safe R seat.

SC-5: Currently represented by Ralph Norman, this district goes from Gaffney to Rock Hill and the Charlotte suburbs down to just north of Columbia and takes half of the city of Sumter. Norman has had quite a few issues in the past, but faced a weak challenge in Archie Parnell (after the entire domestic abuse scandal and all). I could see this seriously flipping in a good Dem year, so i'd put it on the edge of lean and likely R.

SC-6: The majority minority district, represented by Jim Clyburn, it is a bit messy, broadly taking much of the lowcountry, but also has tendrils extending into Sumter, Columbia, and Charleston. Majority AA district=titanium D with the current coalitions.

SC-7: Tom Rice's district. This district is broadly based around the cities of Myrtle Beach and Florence. Horry County (home of Myrtle Beach) voted for Trump almost as much as my home county of Anderson (69.87% Trump here, 67.17% there), making it pretty Republican. A little safer than the 2nd, IMO.

SC-Sen: Lindsey Graham has gone to pretty far lengths to defend Trump and Kavanaugh recently. His approval rating is pretty dismal, last I checked it was 43-39 approval-disapproval.  The question here is whether Dems can get a good candidate, and if they can play their cards right. A win in SC for Dems needs high minority turnout, and good margins in the suburbs and cities. A tall order for sure, but not impossible. I'd rate this on the edge of Likely and Safe R for now.

Current candidates for Senate:
Republican
Lindsey Graham, incumbent Senator
Peggy Kandies, an art teacher from Charleston
Mark Sloan, a minister from Greer

Democrat
William Stone, Lawyer from Darlington, and also an atlas user! (WilliamStone1776)

Now who could be good to beat Graham for Dems?
I have a few ideas:

Joseph P. Riley Jr.
Experience: Mayor of Charleston for 41 years, State Rep. for 6 years.
Pros: Very popular in Charleston, a very important piece of winning the state
Cons: Pretty old (75) and will have been out of office for 4 years, and is likely reluctant to run

Joe Cunningham
Experience: Representative from the 1st District for 2 years (by election)
Pros: Well known after upset, especially in Charleston
Cons: Seat is vulnerable, and may also not want to run for the Senate

will post more later

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Is Vincent Sheheen still around to run for Senate? His showing in 2010 was fantastic, especially considering the national trend, and respectable in 2014 for the same reason.

He’s still a state senator, and has been one of the main leaders in the chamber, although he seems to have had a bit of a lower profile recently. I can see him running, and maybe he could get somewhere. I’ll post more in detail tomorrow or something.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Continued possible list for Democrats:

James Smith
Experience: SC D Gubernatorial candidate 2018, State Rep. for 22 years (1996-2018)

Pros: Decently well known statewide after his gov campaign, doesn't have much to lose unless he wants to run for his old seat instead

Cons: Already lost a statewide race, albeit to a more popular incumbent (McMaster approval was 49-29 in October)

Vincent Sheheen
Experience: SC D Gubernatorial candidate 2010, 2014, State Sen. for 16 years (by time of election), State Rep. for 4 years

Pros: Has had impressive showings in past
Cons: Has been out of the spotlight for a bit, and may be reluctant to run (his state senate seat is up in 2020)


and finally...

Steven K. Benjamin
Experience: Mayor of Columbia for 10 years (by time of election), President of the US Conference of Mayors, 2018-2019

Pros: Mayor of the largest city in the state, at least helping with margins there

Cons: lost a statewide race pretty badly in the past, although that was in 2002, and he also doesn't have much name rec (never heard of him before tbh, but I felt that whoever is the mayor of Columbia could put up at least a decently spirited challenge)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

What about Mandy Powers Norrell?

She's a possibility, but she also isn't really well known, and may not win a primary.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Now for possible challengers!

01:
D Primary:
Joe Cunningham
Experience: Incumbent D Rep. for SC-01
Description: Do I need to really explain here?
Dimitri Cherny
Experience: 2016 D candidate for SC-01, 2018 R candidate for SC-01 (3rd in primary)
Description: A progressive with a Bernie tattoo, Cherny attempted to game the system by registering in the R open primary in 2018. It failed miserably. He could prove a decently strong challenge to Cunningham if he goes very moderate, but I doubt it happens.

R Primary:

Mark Sanford
Experience: Representative for SC-01 for 6 years, Governor of SC for 8 years, Representative for SC-01 (again) for 6 years
Description: A high profile incumbent to fall in a primary, Sanford was "a prominent critic of Trump" before being ousted. He could be a strong challenger in the general, but his main issues lie in the primary.

Catherine Templeton
Experience: Director of South Carolina Director of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation for 1 year, Director of South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control for 3 years, R candidate for Governor, 2018 (3rd place)
Description: A conservative who was rumored to be running against Sanford before declaring for governor, Templeton could be a strong conservative for the race. She was considered for Trump's Sec. of Labor, but declined. She has some issues with her past as director, though. She halted an audit to ensure employers were verifying the legal status of immigrant employees, and although she cut several positions in the DHEC, she created 3 new highly paid executive positions, which angered anti-tax supporters. She even voted for Vincent Shaheen back in 2010. All of this means other conservatives could run a lot against her. It's part of how John Warren managed to finish ahead of her despite her polling several points ahead of him.

Katie Arrington:
Experience: SC State Rep. for 2 years, R candidate for SC-01 in 2018
Description: A staunch conservative, Arrington lost in a high profile race in 2018. Her loss is probably the biggest issue for her, as she could be easily labeled a loser, etc. However, she has much more conservative credibility than Templeton, and could pull more from that bloc.

Jenny Horne:
Experience: SC State Rep. for 8 years, R candidate for SC-01 in 2016 (2nd in primary)
Description: A former state rep who gave Sanford a hard challenge in 2016, she claimed to be descended from Jefferson Davis, although that turned out to be false. She could come back. Maybe. I don't know if she's interested, but she might.


More later

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

SC-2

Being honest, I don't know who could challenge Wilson. Perhaps Sean Carrigan or Arik Bjorn can try for Democrats again.



SC-3:
R Primary:
I don't see anyone challenging Duncan in the primary.

D Primary:

Hosea Cleveland
Experience: Businessman, D candidate for SC-03 in 2014, 2016, 2018 (2nd in primary in 2014, 2018)
Description: An Oconee County native, Cleveland has run a property and casualty insurance agency since 1998. He got 27% of the vote in 2016 against Duncan, and had a bad showing against Mary Geren in 2016's primary, getting only 30% of D votes.

Mary Geren
Experience: Instructor at Tri-County Technical College, D candidate for SC-03 in 2018
Description: Originally from Georgia, Geren now lives in Anderson. She had a slightly better performance than Cleveland in 2018, garnering 31% of the vote. She says partisanship is why nothing can get done nowadays.

My Mom
Experience: Activist
Description: Literally just my mom lol
She's a fighter for sure, and extremely left-wing (moreso than myself). Not sure if she wants to run though.

My Dad
Experience: Engineer, Write-in candidate for Anderson Soil and Water Conservation Board, 2016, 2018 (5th in 2016, 3 spots to be filled, unsure about 2018)
Description: My dad. He's a bit less extreme than my mom, and is more willing to run. However, he's considering running for Soil and Water Conservation again, this time actually being on the ballot.

Terence Roberts
Experience: Mayor of Anderson SC for 14 years (by time of election)
Description: The first African-American mayor of the city, Roberts has a lot more experience than other potential Democrats wanting to run. However, he may be reluctant to run, preferring to stay in local politics.

Not sure who else could run here.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

SC-04

R primary:
William Timmons
Previous Experience: State Senator for 2 years, Representative for SC-04 for 4 years
Description: The incumbent, Timmons is a run-of-the-mill conservative, in favor of tax cuts, pro-life issues, etc. He seems like a very forgettable guy, so he may lose depending on who runs against him, or not.

Lee Bright
Previous Experience: State Senator for 8 years, R candidate for SC-04 in 2018 (1st in initial primary, 2nd in runoff)
Description: An arch-conservative, anti-LGBT former state Senator, Bright lost the runoff primary in 2018 against Timmons, 54-46. He's been a firebrand on LGBT issues, even submitting a senate bill in 2016 to

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(yes, seriously, they capitalized every word) saying essentially any bathroom bill ban is unconsititutional. The guy is certainly a far-right-winger, which may not play well in quickly growing urban areas, although it may do well in the more rural, northern and mountainous regions of the district.

Knox White
Previous Experience: 1988 R candidate for SC-04, Greenville City Council member for 10 years, Mayor of Greenville, SC for 25 years (by time of election)
Description: White is the current Mayor of Greenville, and if he ran he could give Timmons a very good challenge, and very likely win. However, I don't know if he wants to run again. He has fought against raising property tax rates, established Falls Park, created systems of bike paths and trails around the city, rebuilt parts of downtown, and enhanced beautification.

Not sure who could go for Democrats, or if any other Republicans could run.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Cunningham has shown himself to be a stalwart environmentalist, as is obvious here:

Dem Rep Uses an Air Horn to Prove a Point About Environmental Impact of Offshore Oil Work

“Mr. Chair, I’d ask for unanimous consent to sound an air horn in committee.”

That was the unusual request made by Freshman Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.) during a House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Oceans, and Wildlife hearing on Thursday, all in the name of making a point about the impact of one controversial method of offshore oil work.

Cunningham’s line of questioning focused on seismic airgun blasting — a controversial method of searching for oil and gas under the seabed. Critics of the method have argued that it is disruptive to marine life, something even the federal government has conceded in allowing operators to use the equipment in the ocean.

“How much louder do you think seismic airgun blasting sounds than this air horn you just heard?” the congressman questioned, urging Oliver to “take a guess” after he admitted he did not know.

“What if I were to tell you it’s 16,000 times louder than what you just heard here? Can you see how that would be impactful on marine species and mammals?”

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Jaime Harrison has raised over $230,000 for his senate run:

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/likely-democratic-challenger-to-lindsey-graham-raises-in-first-weeks/article_dcb5002c-5592-11e9-a866-2f12f4cc075f.html


This also states that Cunningham has already raised over 600,000 for re-election.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

WHO WILL TAKE ON JOE CUNNINGHAM?

A recent article in The State has raised a possible challenger that was not on my radar: State Rep. Nancy Mace.

She was elected in a Special election in 2017. She has a strong background, being the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, she ran against Lindsay Graham in 2014, and she's a self-branded conservative firebrand.

However, she has some issues the Republican base may not like. She recently spoke out about her experience as a sexual assault victim, and advocated for exceptions for rape and incest in SC's abortion bill. This has gotten her some enemies, and there are possible concerns she will be primaried out of her seat, which may be pushing her to run.

Catherine Templeton has given some strong support to the idea of Mace running, which means I'm crossing her off my list of potential competitors should Mace run.

In other news, Arrington doesn't seem likely to run either, taking a job at the Department of Defense.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Harrison finally makes his campaign official:

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article230902479.html

After months of exploring a bid to challenge Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham in the 2020 election, former S.C. Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison has made it official.

Harrison released a three-minute video Wednesday morning saying he’s officially running for the U.S. Senate seat held by Graham since 2003.

“All (Graham) cares about is pandering to try to get the attention of the president, and that’s not why we sent him to Washington, D.C.,” Harrison told The State in an interview Wednesday.

Defeating Graham, who has amassed more than $4.6 million, will be an uphill fight in conservative South Carolina, where a Democrat has not been elected to statewide office since 2006 and has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than two decades.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://abcnews4.com/news/election/south-carolina-getting-new-voting-machines-with-paper-ballot

SC is getting new voting machines that print out paper ballots for you to fill out. A good step IMO.

The company says the new machines will allow voters to fill out their ballot on a touchscreen. Then, the machine will print a paper ballot which the voter will place into a scanner providing a paper trail of every vote.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Cunningham is raising quite a lot for re-election:

SC Democrat Joe Cunningham has a target on his back for 2020, and a lot of cash

Newly filed campaign finance reports show the vulnerable freshman Democrat raised more than $615,000 from April through June for his re-election bid — topping fundraising from all other U.S. House candidates in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Republicans vying for the seat are gearing up their fundraising efforts for what is expected to be a competitive GOP primary and expensive general election.

And none of the money came from corporate political action committees, his campaign boasted.

More than half of the money Cunningham raised in the second quarter of 2019 was in-state cash. And more than $140,000 was raised from fellow attorneys, mainly in the Charleston and Columbia areas.

All told, Cunningham’s campaign raised $1.3 million from more than 2,500 donors since he pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the 2018 election, reclaiming a seat that had been held by Republicans since 1981. He spent about $450,000 on campaign staff, travel, consulting services and fundraising, leaving him with more than $980,000 cash on hand, his report shows.

Cunningham’s latest numbers are encouraging, but he will need to continue the fundraising momentum in what’s expected to become a costly race, said College of Charleston political science professor Gibbs Knotts.

“All of the eyes of South Carolina and the nation will be on this bellwether district that will determine who is in control in the U.S. House,” Knotts said.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Something else that this article shows is that the main D candidate in SC-02, Adair Ford Boroughs, has raised more money, and has more cash on hand, than incumbent Rep. Joe Wilson.

2ND QUARTER FUNDRAISING IN OTHER SC CONGRESSIONAL RACES
2nd District

U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson (R) — Raised: $109,824; Spent: $136,061; Cash on hand: $124,021

Adair Ford Boroughs (D) — Raised: $245,669; Spent: $99,385; Cash on hand: $146,283

Boroughs is a former teacher and clerked for United States District Judge Richard M. Gergel, working on the United States vs Dylann Roof case. I see her as a pretty strong candidate, though very likely not enough to beat Wilson.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Cunningham’s signature bill to ban offshore drilling passed.

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/house-passes-sc-rep-joe-cunningham-s-bill-to-ban/article_3d3dad0a-d3e1-11e9-b56b-07d1a8bd81e3.html

While the measure faces long odds in the Republican-controlled Senate, it was seen as a legislative success for its author, first-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham of Charleston.

The bipartisan Coastal Marine and Economies Protection Act calls for a permanent and complete moratorium on offshore drilling along the nation’s eastern and western coasts.

An amendment added to the bill by U.S. Rep. Andy Levin, D-Michigan, would extend the ban to seismic testing, as well.

“This isn’t a partisan issue,” Cunningham said of offshore drilling. “This bill is good for business and it’s good for the environment. If folks want to call themselves ‘good conservatives’ then you have to be a good conservative on the environment, too.”

The motion to recommit failed and the bill passed along mostly party lines on a 238-189 vote. Twelve Republicans voted in its favor.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Gonna give some ratings on the races, I'll elaborate on certain ones if you want me to.

SC-01: TILT D
D Primary: Safe Cunningham

Joe Cunningham, Incumbent Representative

R Primary: Likely Mace

Nancy Mace, State Represenative
Mike Covert: Beaufort County Councilman
Kathy Landing: Mount Pleasant Councilwoman
Chris Cox: Founder of Bikers for Trump

SC-02: VERY LIKELY R
D Primary: Likely Boroughs

Adair Boroughs: Attorney
Lawrence Nathaniel: Activist

R Primary: Safe Wilson

SC-03: SAFE R

No filings yet, so impossible to say. Both my parents have declined. My dad's running for County Soil and Water conservation board, and my mom's possibly running for School Board.

SC-04: SAFE R

R Primary: Lean/Likely Timmons
William Timmons: Incumbent Rep.

No other filings yet, but it's possible a strong challenger emerges on the R side. No idea on the D side.

SC-05: VERY LIKELY R

No filings yet.

SC-06: SAFE D

D Primary: Safe Clyburn
Jim Clyburn: House Majority Whip, Incumbent Rep.

No filings otherwise.

SC-07:SAFE R

No filings yet.


SC-SEN: VERY LIKELY R

R Primary: Safe Graham

Lindsay Graham: Incumbent Senator
Peggy Kandles: Art Teacher
Dwayne Buckner: Attorney
Joe Reynolds: Chief Engineer in the Merchant Marine
Michael LaPierre: Businessman

D Primary: Very Likely Harrison

Jaime Harrison: Fmr. SC Dem Party Chair
Gloria Bromell Tinubu: Fmr. Georgia State Rep.
William Stone: Legal researcher, Atlas user (WilliamStone1776)
Justin Wooton: Activist
Matthew Knights:

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

SC-03 still has no opposition to Duncan, so...


I'm proud to announce my write in campaign for SC's 3rd Congressional District.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Not much news from what I can tell. I've been taking this write in campaign far too seriously, to the point where I'm probably going to spend like 80$ on a couple of yard signs to stick around town.

However, we do have 1 FEC filing finally:

https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00741637/?cycle=2020

Looking around the only Mark Welch I could find is a Holiday Inn GM from Seneca. He can probably pay the ballot fee. I can't.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Not much news from what I can tell. I've been taking this write in campaign far too seriously, to the point where I'm probably going to spend like 80$ on a couple of yard signs to stick around town.

However, we do have 1 FEC filing finally:

https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00741637/?cycle=2020

Looking around the only Mark Welch I could find is a Holiday Inn GM from Seneca. He can probably pay the ballot fee. I can't.

What's the ballot fee? You could start a GoFundMe, I'm sure there are people on Atlas who would donate.

I looked into it. For parties nominating via primary, it's 3,480$. For parties nominating via convention, however, it's none. I don't know if the state Greens have a convention or primary. They're pretty tiny, so maybe...

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The main issue is that I don’t know if they’ll even consider me since I’m ineligible (I’m 17 and the min. Age is 25)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I don't know, I think if someone seriously progressive runs I'll officially give it up. I don't know about this guy yet though

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

This might be the wrong thread, but how do you rate the Presidential race in SC? Trump will win obviously, but how much do you think he will win by?

Safe R, with low elasticity. Dems have a high floor and low ceiling like in a lot of southern states thanks to the AA vote. I'd say Trump by high single digits, something like 54-45. Hillary was about as low as Ds can get in this state, 40%-ish.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Should I actually file with the FEC? I obviously won't have any sort of donations or expenditures, so financial reporting should be easy, but idk...

It doesn't seem like they bar ineligible people in the district from filing

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Do you think that Harrison can do better than James Smith as he has a lot of money from donors?

It's possible, and Graham, despite being decently liked (especially where i live), is a bit more divisive than McMaster.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://jeffduncan.house.gov/media/press-releases/duncan-introduces-wuhan-rescissions-act

SC-03: Duncan introduces the WUHAN Rescissions Act "To eliminate over $27 billion in spending included in the CARES Act unrelated to #COVID19."


I can appreciate a good acronym but... really?

and this is the hill you wanna die on? With everything else going on?