SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Never too early, right?

So, let's recap the main races of SC in 2020.


SC-1: Likely to be the most watched race in the state, Democrat Joe Cunningham pulled off a narrow win against State Rep. Katie Arrington. This district is based around the coast, stretching from Hilton Head Island in the South, up through most of Charleston, and tracks along the coast to the Santee River. One blob extends north to take Summerville and Monck's Corner. Depending on who runs, and how Cunningham votes, this could go either way for now.

SC-2: Currently represented by Republican Joe Wilson, this district extends from Augusta's NE suburbs to Aiken, before swinging around Columbia, taking most of the white suburbs. The district is usually R, but under perfect conditions it could flip. Those perfect conditions aren't happening though. Pretty much safe, but could become likely.

SC-3: My district, which goes from the Augusta NW suburbs through to Greenwood and Anderson, taking Oconee and Pickens counties (home of Clemson) and takes a good portion of the Greenville suburbs, including about a third to a half of the minority heavy ones. Even if he had a Roy Moore-esque scandal and was found to be part of a satanic cult, he would still win. Titanium R.


SC-4: The smallest district, it encompasses most of Greenville and Spartanburg counties. Trey Gowdy's old district, soon to be represented by William Timmons, who narrowly fought off arch-conservative Lee Bright for the nomination, and easily fended off a Democratic challenge. Due to the growing metros, it is trending a bit more Dem, but for now it's very much a Safe R seat.

SC-5: Currently represented by Ralph Norman, this district goes from Gaffney to Rock Hill and the Charlotte suburbs down to just north of Columbia and takes half of the city of Sumter. Norman has had quite a few issues in the past, but faced a weak challenge in Archie Parnell (after the entire domestic abuse scandal and all). I could see this seriously flipping in a good Dem year, so i'd put it on the edge of lean and likely R.

SC-6: The majority minority district, represented by Jim Clyburn, it is a bit messy, broadly taking much of the lowcountry, but also has tendrils extending into Sumter, Columbia, and Charleston. Majority AA district=titanium D with the current coalitions.

SC-7: Tom Rice's district. This district is broadly based around the cities of Myrtle Beach and Florence. Horry County (home of Myrtle Beach) voted for Trump almost as much as my home county of Anderson (69.87% Trump here, 67.17% there), making it pretty Republican. A little safer than the 2nd, IMO.

SC-Sen: Lindsey Graham has gone to pretty far lengths to defend Trump and Kavanaugh recently. His approval rating is pretty dismal, last I checked it was 43-39 approval-disapproval.  The question here is whether Dems can get a good candidate, and if they can play their cards right. A win in SC for Dems needs high minority turnout, and good margins in the suburbs and cities. A tall order for sure, but not impossible. I'd rate this on the edge of Likely and Safe R for now.

Current candidates for Senate:
Republican
Lindsey Graham, incumbent Senator
Peggy Kandies, an art teacher from Charleston
Mark Sloan, a minister from Greer

Democrat
William Stone, Lawyer from Darlington, and also an atlas user! (WilliamStone1776)

Now who could be good to beat Graham for Dems?
I have a few ideas:

Joseph P. Riley Jr.
Experience: Mayor of Charleston for 41 years, State Rep. for 6 years.
Pros: Very popular in Charleston, a very important piece of winning the state
Cons: Pretty old (75) and will have been out of office for 4 years, and is likely reluctant to run

Joe Cunningham
Experience: Representative from the 1st District for 2 years (by election)
Pros: Well known after upset, especially in Charleston
Cons: Seat is vulnerable, and may also not want to run for the Senate

will post more later

[Free Bird]

Palmetto Potpourri

Use that

[Pollster]

Is Vincent Sheheen still around to run for Senate? His showing in 2010 was fantastic, especially considering the national trend, and respectable in 2014 for the same reason.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Is Vincent Sheheen still around to run for Senate? His showing in 2010 was fantastic, especially considering the national trend, and respectable in 2014 for the same reason.

He’s still a state senator, and has been one of the main leaders in the chamber, although he seems to have had a bit of a lower profile recently. I can see him running, and maybe he could get somewhere. I’ll post more in detail tomorrow or something.

[IceSpear]

Is Vincent Sheheen still around to run for Senate? His showing in 2010 was fantastic, especially considering the national trend, and respectable in 2014 for the same reason.

His great performance in 2010 was only because his opponent was a non-white woman named Nimrata Randhawa. All the Racist SC Hicks had no problem with her in 2014 once they were comfortable with the fact that she wouldn't institute affirmative action or push through reparations for Sikhs.

[Pollster]

Is Vincent Sheheen still around to run for Senate? His showing in 2010 was fantastic, especially considering the national trend, and respectable in 2014 for the same reason.

His great performance in 2010 was only because his opponent was a non-white woman named Nimrata Randhawa. All the Racist SC Hicks had no problem with her in 2014 once they were comfortable with the fact that she wouldn't institute affirmative action or push through reparations for Sikhs.

I'm sure her ethnicity/gender did contribute to her weak showing, but she did also win the primary by 27 points.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Continued possible list for Democrats:

James Smith
Experience: SC D Gubernatorial candidate 2018, State Rep. for 22 years (1996-2018)

Pros: Decently well known statewide after his gov campaign, doesn't have much to lose unless he wants to run for his old seat instead

Cons: Already lost a statewide race, albeit to a more popular incumbent (McMaster approval was 49-29 in October)

Vincent Sheheen
Experience: SC D Gubernatorial candidate 2010, 2014, State Sen. for 16 years (by time of election), State Rep. for 4 years

Pros: Has had impressive showings in past
Cons: Has been out of the spotlight for a bit, and may be reluctant to run (his state senate seat is up in 2020)


and finally...

Steven K. Benjamin
Experience: Mayor of Columbia for 10 years (by time of election), President of the US Conference of Mayors, 2018-2019

Pros: Mayor of the largest city in the state, at least helping with margins there

Cons: lost a statewide race pretty badly in the past, although that was in 2002, and he also doesn't have much name rec (never heard of him before tbh, but I felt that whoever is the mayor of Columbia could put up at least a decently spirited challenge)

[SnowLabrador]

The only race worth watching is SC-1, in my opinion.

[aaroncd107]

What about Mandy Powers Norrell?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

What about Mandy Powers Norrell?

She's a possibility, but she also isn't really well known, and may not win a primary.

[pppolitics]

I found a great title

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Now for possible challengers!

01:
D Primary:
Joe Cunningham
Experience: Incumbent D Rep. for SC-01
Description: Do I need to really explain here?
Dimitri Cherny
Experience: 2016 D candidate for SC-01, 2018 R candidate for SC-01 (3rd in primary)
Description: A progressive with a Bernie tattoo, Cherny attempted to game the system by registering in the R open primary in 2018. It failed miserably. He could prove a decently strong challenge to Cunningham if he goes very moderate, but I doubt it happens.

R Primary:

Mark Sanford
Experience: Representative for SC-01 for 6 years, Governor of SC for 8 years, Representative for SC-01 (again) for 6 years
Description: A high profile incumbent to fall in a primary, Sanford was "a prominent critic of Trump" before being ousted. He could be a strong challenger in the general, but his main issues lie in the primary.

Catherine Templeton
Experience: Director of South Carolina Director of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation for 1 year, Director of South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control for 3 years, R candidate for Governor, 2018 (3rd place)
Description: A conservative who was rumored to be running against Sanford before declaring for governor, Templeton could be a strong conservative for the race. She was considered for Trump's Sec. of Labor, but declined. She has some issues with her past as director, though. She halted an audit to ensure employers were verifying the legal status of immigrant employees, and although she cut several positions in the DHEC, she created 3 new highly paid executive positions, which angered anti-tax supporters. She even voted for Vincent Shaheen back in 2010. All of this means other conservatives could run a lot against her. It's part of how John Warren managed to finish ahead of her despite her polling several points ahead of him.

Katie Arrington:
Experience: SC State Rep. for 2 years, R candidate for SC-01 in 2018
Description: A staunch conservative, Arrington lost in a high profile race in 2018. Her loss is probably the biggest issue for her, as she could be easily labeled a loser, etc. However, she has much more conservative credibility than Templeton, and could pull more from that bloc.

Jenny Horne:
Experience: SC State Rep. for 8 years, R candidate for SC-01 in 2016 (2nd in primary)
Description: A former state rep who gave Sanford a hard challenge in 2016, she claimed to be descended from Jefferson Davis, although that turned out to be false. She could come back. Maybe. I don't know if she's interested, but she might.


More later

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

SC-2

Being honest, I don't know who could challenge Wilson. Perhaps Sean Carrigan or Arik Bjorn can try for Democrats again.



SC-3:
R Primary:
I don't see anyone challenging Duncan in the primary.

D Primary:

Hosea Cleveland
Experience: Businessman, D candidate for SC-03 in 2014, 2016, 2018 (2nd in primary in 2014, 2018)
Description: An Oconee County native, Cleveland has run a property and casualty insurance agency since 1998. He got 27% of the vote in 2016 against Duncan, and had a bad showing against Mary Geren in 2016's primary, getting only 30% of D votes.

Mary Geren
Experience: Instructor at Tri-County Technical College, D candidate for SC-03 in 2018
Description: Originally from Georgia, Geren now lives in Anderson. She had a slightly better performance than Cleveland in 2018, garnering 31% of the vote. She says partisanship is why nothing can get done nowadays.

My Mom
Experience: Activist
Description: Literally just my mom lol
She's a fighter for sure, and extremely left-wing (moreso than myself). Not sure if she wants to run though.

My Dad
Experience: Engineer, Write-in candidate for Anderson Soil and Water Conservation Board, 2016, 2018 (5th in 2016, 3 spots to be filled, unsure about 2018)
Description: My dad. He's a bit less extreme than my mom, and is more willing to run. However, he's considering running for Soil and Water Conservation again, this time actually being on the ballot.

Terence Roberts
Experience: Mayor of Anderson SC for 14 years (by time of election)
Description: The first African-American mayor of the city, Roberts has a lot more experience than other potential Democrats wanting to run. However, he may be reluctant to run, preferring to stay in local politics.

Not sure who else could run here.

[Continential]

WEATHERBOY"S DAD FOR US SENATE

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

SC-04

R primary:
William Timmons
Previous Experience: State Senator for 2 years, Representative for SC-04 for 4 years
Description: The incumbent, Timmons is a run-of-the-mill conservative, in favor of tax cuts, pro-life issues, etc. He seems like a very forgettable guy, so he may lose depending on who runs against him, or not.

Lee Bright
Previous Experience: State Senator for 8 years, R candidate for SC-04 in 2018 (1st in initial primary, 2nd in runoff)
Description: An arch-conservative, anti-LGBT former state Senator, Bright lost the runoff primary in 2018 against Timmons, 54-46. He's been a firebrand on LGBT issues, even submitting a senate bill in 2016 to

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(yes, seriously, they capitalized every word) saying essentially any bathroom bill ban is unconsititutional. The guy is certainly a far-right-winger, which may not play well in quickly growing urban areas, although it may do well in the more rural, northern and mountainous regions of the district.

Knox White
Previous Experience: 1988 R candidate for SC-04, Greenville City Council member for 10 years, Mayor of Greenville, SC for 25 years (by time of election)
Description: White is the current Mayor of Greenville, and if he ran he could give Timmons a very good challenge, and very likely win. However, I don't know if he wants to run again. He has fought against raising property tax rates, established Falls Park, created systems of bike paths and trails around the city, rebuilt parts of downtown, and enhanced beautification.

Not sure who could go for Democrats, or if any other Republicans could run.

[Sirius_]

Would like to also submit Terrence Roberts as a possible candidate for senate. As an upstate Democrat, he could help crack into the Republican stronghold in the area, and would probably bring something new unlike some people like Sheheen. Main possible con is that he's had some health issues, and something may come up that would prevent him from running.

[RogueBeaver]

Harrison meeting with legislative Dems to discuss a potential run.

[Comrade Funk]

Harrison meeting with legislative Dems to discuss a potential run.

Good. Even though he won't win, we need fighters who will at the very least call out schmucks like McConnell and Graham out on their hypocritical bs.

[libertpaulian]

Harrison meeting with legislative Dems to discuss a potential run.

Good. Even though he won't win, we need fighters who will at the very least call out schmucks like McConnell and Graham out on their hypocritical bs.

At the very least, the NRSC might be forced to spend money in another state, instead of spending that money on McSally, Gardner, or Daines.

[lfromnj]

honestly this is another good money sink for the R's.

They only have to put up a bit to make sure but other than that D's will remember Kavanaugh and waste money.

I can't wait until Cocaine Mitch's opponent raises like 50 million.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1093606691013197824

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1093606691013197824

He won't win, but he's a good candidate. Hopefully he can narrow the margin a bit more than what the Dem did in the 18 Governors race.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1093606691013197824

He won't win, but he's a good candidate. Hopefully he can narrow the margin a bit more than what the Dem did in the 18 Governors race.

If Harrison can keep this to mid-single digits, that might save Cunningham.

[Galeel]

What about Bakari Sellers for Senate?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Cunningham has shown himself to be a stalwart environmentalist, as is obvious here:

Dem Rep Uses an Air Horn to Prove a Point About Environmental Impact of Offshore Oil Work

“Mr. Chair, I’d ask for unanimous consent to sound an air horn in committee.”

That was the unusual request made by Freshman Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.) during a House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Oceans, and Wildlife hearing on Thursday, all in the name of making a point about the impact of one controversial method of offshore oil work.

Cunningham’s line of questioning focused on seismic airgun blasting — a controversial method of searching for oil and gas under the seabed. Critics of the method have argued that it is disruptive to marine life, something even the federal government has conceded in allowing operators to use the equipment in the ocean.

“How much louder do you think seismic airgun blasting sounds than this air horn you just heard?” the congressman questioned, urging Oliver to “take a guess” after he admitted he did not know.

“What if I were to tell you it’s 16,000 times louder than what you just heard here? Can you see how that would be impactful on marine species and mammals?”