SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Nancy Mace tests positive for COVID, meaning both candidates have or have had it

Not only that, but she also went to vote wearing no mask and had a party where there was no social distancing or precautions taken at all. I'm glad she's contributing to Charleston's spike in virus cases.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I still think Graham hangs on, maybe as close as 1-2 percentage points, but I would not be that shocked to see him lose. He's sold his soul to the party of Trump, and a lot of moderate Republicans along the coast are going to flip to Harrison like they flipped to Joe Cunningham in 2018.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's going to be very close in the Senate race, but if I had to bet, I think Graham narrowly hangs on. I want to see Harrison ahead in a poll before I start thinking he can knock Lindsey off. The undecides usually come home to the Rs in SC.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The Democrats are certainly pumping a lot of money here. I see a ton of Harrison ads on TV. Mace seems to be running a lot against Cunningham. It's going to be a battle, but if Cunningham can run up big margins in Charleston again, I think he has a good chance at holding on.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If Harrison wins, SC will have two black senators.

Historical.

But probably for 2 years---Tim Scott may retire in 2022

Harrison will be vulnerable in 2026---Jeff Duncan or Alan Wilson can defeat him.

What makes you say that?  Why would he retire during a Biden mid-term?  He is more likely to retire by 2028. From what I have read, Sen. Tim Scott has indicated that he will run for what will be his final Senate term in 2022: 

Whether Scott could even be persuaded to mount a presidential bid remains unclear. The senator’s distaste for national politics is well-known, and he has said his 2022 Senate reelection campaign will be his last.

I don't think Scott retires until 2028, but I also think he may want to run for Governor at some point after that. As long as he runs, I don't think he will lose.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Remember that South Carolina has some of the most stringent voter access laws in the country.  Absentee ballots must be signed by a witness, and there's no early voting.  Voter registration closed a month before election day.

Isn't SC's absentee in-person voting essentially early voting?

Yes, people are voting in person right now. But you do need a witness when you sign your mail-in ballot.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I am pretty shocked at the results last night. I did not think Cunningham would lose, and I am really shocked that Graham won by over 10%.