SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[wbrocks67]

Who does high turnout benefit, considering there's no doubt this will break records

One would think Harrison, since I feel like Dems have a lot of lower propensity voters in these southern states.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Who does high turnout benefit, considering there's no doubt this will break records

One would think Harrison, since I feel like Dems have a lot of lower propensity voters in these southern states.

Yeah. GOP does have some low propensity turnout too but it's not like the midwest where high turnout benefits only GOP

[Hope For A New Era]

Who does high turnout benefit, considering there's no doubt this will break records

High turnout almost always benefits Democrats, especially in the South.

[warandwar]

Graham got murdered at this debate lol
I have not seen a beat down like that in a very long time

No it wasn't. I watched the whole debate and thought it was a draw. Harrison should have painted Graham as a sell out to big corporates, a warmonger or SC being one of the worsts states for education and other indexes. Meanwhile Graham turned his influence in Washington a to a positive. I predict Graham by 2-4 points

South Carolina iirc is a state that has a large military community.

Anti-war and anti-military are distinct (i should know, I'm anti-military). Large military population means when a war is going badly, everyone knows about it (growing up in Maryland, a big military state, the truth about Iraq was inescapable).

Yes but you don’t win as a Democrat in South Carolina by calling a veteran a warmonger. Besides I’d wager the military population in South Carolina is different to the military community in South Carolina

Even in 2008 Obama rejected it!

http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/2008/04/06/obama-campaign-mccain-is-not-a-warmonger/

Oh i don't mean the word "warmonger" necessarily, but it's not like Democrats did poorly in military states by running anti-war campaigns in 2006. And of course, Trump won South Carolina immediately after trashing the Iraq War and casting the Bushes as essentially war mongers.

[SenatorCouzens]

I assume this helps Graham? I know very little about South Carolina politics myself.


Without noted dissent, Supreme Court reverses 4th Circuit and says South Carolina voters still need to provide witness signatures to cast absentee ballots (except for those who already voted and ballots received w/n 2 days)

https://electionlawblog.org/?p=116241

If you want to read a Republican take on this ruling and others that might be coming:

https://www.redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/10/05/supreme-court-strikes-down-rewrite-of-state-election-law-by-district-court-judge-the-battle-is-joined/

[MplsDem]

Cook moved it to tossup!
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/south-carolina-senate/south-carolina-senate-moves-toss

[NewYorkExpress]

Cook moved it to tossup!
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/south-carolina-senate/south-carolina-senate-moves-toss

Mildly surprised, actually. I really think this either a Tilt R or Lean R race. The undecided voters probably will come home to Graham.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

As if it couldn't get any more 2018 TX-SEN.

I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being one of the closest Senate races of 2020, if not the closest

[Blair]

A relatively old (24-28 sep) internal poll but still..


https://abcnews4.com/news/local/new-poll-has-jaime-harrison-leading-sen-lindsey-graham-by-1-point-in-senate-race

https://www.dscc.org/news/new-dscc-poll-results-find-jaime-harrison-leading-vulnerable-senator-lindsey-graham-by-1-point-in-south-carolina-senate-race/

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/harrisonjaime/status/1314667560076562435

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Easy way to dodge a debate you think you'd lose.

[Lognog]

Easy way to dodge a debate you think you'd lose. make yourself look like a giant jack***

[wbrocks67]

Graham seems to think he's a lot smarter and slicker than he is, and then always ends up looking like a jack-a$$

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why on earth would he refuse to take a test? Does he think that it will make him look "weak" in the eyes of Trump and his deplorables?

[wbrocks67]

Lindsey is an idiot. How does he think this plays well for him?

https://twitter.com/LauraLitvan/status/1314682924747370497

[Ljube]

Lindsey is an idiot. How does he think this plays well for him?

https://twitter.com/LauraLitvan/status/1314682924747370497

It does. Harrison skipped the debate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why on earth would he refuse to take a test? Does he think that it will make him look "weak" in the eyes of Trump and his deplorables?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1314686875421077506

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why on earth would he refuse to take a test? Does he think that it will make him look "weak" in the eyes of Trump and his deplorables?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1314686875421077506

The fact that these people are literally willing to risk their lives and health for this confirmation should frighten everyone. These are fanatics that shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the levers of power.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Does anyone have any benchmarks that Harrison would need to hit to win? He’d probably need to make Greenville County super close and definitely break 60% in Charleston County

[Storr]

Why on earth would he refuse to take a test? Does he think that it will make him look "weak" in the eyes of Trump and his deplorables?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1314686875421077506

The fact that these people are literally willing to risk their lives and health for this confirmation should frighten everyone. These are fanatics that shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the levers of power.

It also gives Judiciary Committee Democrats a legitimate reason to not show up, if they decide to choose that path.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Does anyone have any benchmarks that Harrison would need to hit to win? He’d probably need to make Greenville County super close and definitely break 60% in Charleston County

He needs to flip Berkley, Dorchester, Beaufort, Georgetown, Florence, Darlington, Calhoun and McCormick
But seeing the r trend in the black belt, I'm concerned about the latter four so he may have to get something like 45 in York, 44 in Greenville

[voice_of_resistance]

Does anyone have any benchmarks that Harrison would need to hit to win? He’d probably need to make Greenville County super close and definitely break 60% in Charleston County

He needs to flip Berkley, Dorchester, Beaufort, Georgetown, Florence, Darlington, Calhoun and McCormick
But seeing the r trend in the black belt, I'm concerned about the latter four so he may have to get something like 45 in York, 44 in Greenville

Found this map of what a rough Dem statewide win would look like for Harrison:

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1306304877107326977

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/stevemorris__/status/1314715904131895296?s=20

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/stevemorris__/status/1314715904131895296?s=20

Jeeeeeeeeeeeesus H. Christ

I guess Graham is probably close to his black floor but I can imagine this alienating some white moderates

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Well, at least he isn’t as racist as the guy he replaced in the senate amirite