SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[Pericles]

Graham is a pretty weak candidate it seems. Still, another Kavanaugh hearing style tantrum could seal the deal for him.

I think this cycle is proving what many people didn't want to believe: that people like Graham, and to a lesser extent Ernst, since she's newer, and really just not great candidates when it comes down to an actual competitive race. They've just been able to skate by because of polarization and the R next to their name.

Ernst seemed to be a pretty strong candidate in 2014 and if she was really weak she could have lost that race. To be fair though, Braley was a mess and alienated Iowa voters.

[Roll Roons]

Graham is a pretty weak candidate it seems. Still, another Kavanaugh hearing style tantrum could seal the deal for him.

I think this cycle is proving what many people didn't want to believe: that people like Graham, and to a lesser extent Ernst, since she's newer, and really just not great candidates when it comes down to an actual competitive race. They've just been able to skate by because of polarization and the R next to their name.

Ernst seemed to be a pretty strong candidate in 2014 and if she was really weak she could have lost that race. To be fair though, Braley was a mess and alienated Iowa voters.

It seems like her campaign skills have really deteriorated this year. Same deal with McSally.

[Calthrina950]

Graham is a pretty weak candidate it seems. Still, another Kavanaugh hearing style tantrum could seal the deal for him.

I think this cycle is proving what many people didn't want to believe: that people like Graham, and to a lesser extent Ernst, since she's newer, and really just not great candidates when it comes down to an actual competitive race. They've just been able to skate by because of polarization and the R next to their name.

Ernst seemed to be a pretty strong candidate in 2014 and if she was really weak she could have lost that race. To be fair though, Braley was a mess and alienated Iowa voters.

It seems like her campaign skills have really deteriorated this year. Same deal with McSally.

McSally was a horrible campaigner in 2018 as well, which is one of the reasons why she lost to Sinema. But she certainly has slipped from the campaign abilities she had as a congresswoman in a competitive seat-the same seat once held by Gabrielle Giffords, wife of the man who is about to beat her, and cast her from the Senate a second time. I've found this to be one of the most ironic facts about this election cycle.

[Virginiá]

Graham is a pretty weak candidate it seems. Still, another Kavanaugh hearing style tantrum could seal the deal for him.

I think this cycle is proving what many people didn't want to believe: that people like Graham, and to a lesser extent Ernst, since she's newer, and really just not great candidates when it comes down to an actual competitive race. They've just been able to skate by because of polarization and the R next to their name.

Underappreciated for sure. The fact that he hasn't ever really had to try to keep his job when it came to general elections has meant that all the flip-flopping and otherwise weaselly behavior, not to mention his attacks on Trump in 2016, have really weakened his support among the GOP base. Sure, most won't actually defect, but it doesn't take that much. A combination of high Dem turnout, undervoting for Graham and a small number of defections could theoretically let Harrison scrape by.

[Blair]

I think it's just the fact that republican senators have generally been playing on the easy setting (unless they ran in 2008)

They've generally always had a cash advantage, have faced depressed democratic turnout, saw popular democrats retire & were able to run against unpopular hypotheticals (Obamacare)

It was quite funny as someone who first started followling US politics in 2014 when the biggest fear was republican Super PACS to watch in 2018 as numerous republicans complained about getting bombared by Bloomberg ads.

I'm sure someone has written about it but it will be interesting to see how long the energised money pit on the left continues after Trump

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I am very hopeful now that Harrison wins. I still would only give it a high single digit percent chance of happening, but Harrison's campaign has been EXTREMELY smart.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/RepJeffDuncan/status/1308865119619817473?s=20

They aren't being subtle.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://twitter.com/RepJeffDuncan/status/1308865119619817473?s=20

They aren't being subtle.

Were they ever?

In any case, the only reason Duncan is in the thread title is the punning reference, not he was ever in any risk of losing in the general.

[ugabug]

I am very hopeful now that Harrison wins. I still would only give it a high single digit percent chance of happening, but Harrison's campaign has been EXTREMELY smart.

High single digits seem somewhat low. Hell 538 is giving Harrison a 20% of winning at the moment.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/south-carolina/

Which is almost as much as the 22% that they're give Trump of winning the election.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's going to be very close in the Senate race, but if I had to bet, I think Graham narrowly hangs on. I want to see Harrison ahead in a poll before I start thinking he can knock Lindsey off. The undecides usually come home to the Rs in SC.

[wbrocks67]

Dems are now dumping money here. Schumer must think he can win.

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1310569593941954560

[indietraveler]

This seat is now my current long-shot upset prediction that no one sees coming.

[We Live in Black and White]

Graham is not going to come out of this Supreme Court debate looking good. Let's at least scare the s**t out of him.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/RepJeffDuncan/status/1308865119619817473?s=20

They aren't being subtle.

Were they ever?

In any case, the only reason Duncan is in the thread title is the punning reference, not he was ever in any risk of losing in the general.

It was actually because I was running a write-in campaign against him at one point. I didn't even think about the "Duncan Donuts" thing until Koopa made a thing for me about it saying "SC RUNS FROM DUNCAN"

[LabourJersey]

I think it's just the fact that republican senators have generally been playing on the easy setting (unless they ran in 2008)

They've generally always had a cash advantage, have faced depressed democratic turnout, saw popular democrats retire & were able to run against unpopular hypotheticals (Obamacare)

It was quite funny as someone who first started followling US politics in 2014 when the biggest fear was republican Super PACS to watch in 2018 as numerous republicans complained about getting bombared by Bloomberg ads.

I'm sure someone has written about it but it will be interesting to see how long the energised money pit on the left continues after Trump

It'll be interesting to see the post-Trump money situation for the Democrats.

Part of me thinks Biden winning would take the foot off the gas for a lot of people. But then again if Trump still makes headlines for calling whatever Biden does "socialist" and "unAmerican" or whatever, coupled with how many well off people have joined the Democrats, the money advantage may stick around for a little bit

[Blair]

The ad the democrats Super PAC is running against Graham.

Very wise that it's not focused on the SC battle or him being a hypocrite- but is about drug prices, lobbyists & the swamp.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTNh-n4J8vI&feature=youtu.be

[Suburbia]

If Harrison wins, SC will have two black senators.

Historical.

But probably for 2 years---Tim Scott may retire in 2022

Harrison will be vulnerable in 2026---Jeff Duncan or Alan Wilson can defeat him.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

If Harrison wins, SC will have two black senators.

Historical.

But probably for 2 years---Tim Scott may retire in 2022

Harrison will be vulnerable in 2026---Jeff Duncan or Alan Wilson can defeat him.

Harrison to Duncan would be a bigger downgrade than Jones to Tuberville.

[Alben Barkley]

The ad the democrats Super PAC is running against Graham.

Very wise that it's not focused on the SC battle or him being a hypocrite- but is about drug prices, lobbyists & the swamp.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTNh-n4J8vI&feature=youtu.be

Good ad, but I think calling out his hypocrisy can help too. That ad with clips of him bashing Trump and heaping praise on Biden was gold because it shows what a snake he is. Part of the reason he's vulnerable is that no side trusts him: The moderates/independents who used to like him hate that he's gone full MAGA, and true believers still think he's a two-faced rat who would stab Trump in the back if he thought he had to. This could result in depressed GOP base turnout for him (wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Trump voters leave the Senate line blank), increased Democratic turnout against him, and swing voters turning on him.

Plus, no one likes someone who's as blatant about his hypocrisy as Graham has been. The guy swore that he wouldn't do exactly what he's doing right now on the SCOTUS seat and dared people to use it against him. Now that they are, he literally went on Fox and cried, begging for money because people hate him and his opponent is outraising him. Also not a good look.

Literally nobody in Washington disgusts me more than Lindsey Graham, not even Trump himself. He's a sniveling little weasel who doesn't even try to hide it. He's so arrogant he thinks he can get away with being such a bald-faced liar in plain sight, then acts surprised and breaks down when the polls are tight and he's getting outraised. He doesn't deserve to be even competitive in this seat, and there would be nothing more satisfying than to see this hypocrite go down because he hitched his wagon to a man he once said was so awful his party deserved to lose for nominating him.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I did think of an ad that would say

“Which Lindsay Graham are you voting for?” Followed by clips of him doing all the flip-flopping.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The Democrats are certainly pumping a lot of money here. I see a ton of Harrison ads on TV. Mace seems to be running a lot against Cunningham. It's going to be a battle, but if Cunningham can run up big margins in Charleston again, I think he has a good chance at holding on.

[WD]

Graham is begging for money (again).

https://mobile.twitter.com/Acyn/status/1311481893435527168

[DrScholl]

That was one long run on sentence. Graham really isn't handling a strong challenge well.

[Frodo]

If Harrison wins, SC will have two black senators.

Historical.

But probably for 2 years---Tim Scott may retire in 2022

Harrison will be vulnerable in 2026---Jeff Duncan or Alan Wilson can defeat him.

What makes you say that?  Why would he retire during a Biden mid-term?  He is more likely to retire by 2028. From what I have read, Sen. Tim Scott has indicated that he will run for what will be his final Senate term in 2022:  

Whether Scott could even be persuaded to mount a presidential bid remains unclear. The senator’s distaste for national politics is well-known, and he has said his 2022 Senate reelection campaign will be his last.

[Storr]

Graham is begging for money (again).

https://mobile.twitter.com/Acyn/status/1311481893435527168

Pathetic.