SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[GALeftist]

Has any group intervened to hype the Constitution candidate & say Graham is not a true Trump fan?

Here's the ad:


(zoom in on Graham's face in each transition)
Lindsey Graham:  negative quote about Trump
Lindsey Graham:  negative quote about Trump
Lindsey Graham:  quick cut of insulting Trump
freeze frame, fade to black+white

Male voice:  Lindsey Graham will say anything.  He's only out for himself.  Isn't it time we had a true conservative?  Someone who's loyal to our president and will have his back?

(glamour shot of Bill Bledsoe)

Vote for Bill Bledsoe to tell Lindsey Graham "you ain't fooling anyone"

This ad paid for by Friends of Bill Bledsoe.

Inject some homophobic undertones - “isn’t it time we had a true, strong, masculine conservative” - and you’ve got a winner. Let me cut a check

Shot of Bill Bledsoe with his wife and kids to hammer home the "not gay" point, ideally.

[Blair]

I was thinking earlier why some rich liberal hasn't been angered enough to dump £££ into an Anti-Lindsay PAC.

If you spent millions on boosting the third party conservative candidate, attacking Graham with Trump voters & well just generally attacking Graham over his record it could be the type of thing that could shift the needle by that 0.5-1% difference.

If I was an aging billionaire in covid time I'd happily waste money just to scare Lindsay & force him to go back on Fox News.

[Blair]

Could someone who knows the politics of South Carolina give me a guide to how close it could get?

Looking at previous Senate & Governor races it seems that the Democrats actually have a pretty high average of between 40-45%...

[Roll Roons]

Could someone who knows the politics of South Carolina give me a guide to how close it could get?

Looking at previous Senate & Governor races it seems that the Democrats actually have a pretty high average of between 40-45%...

What I find interesting is that when both Senate seats were on the ballot in 2014, Lindsey won by 17 despite being a two-term incumbent, and Tim Scott won by 24 despite being an appointee who had never won statewide. What happened with that?

[Blair]

Could someone who knows the politics of South Carolina give me a guide to how close it could get?

Looking at previous Senate & Governor races it seems that the Democrats actually have a pretty high average of between 40-45%...

What I find interesting is that when both Senate seats were on the ballot in 2014, Lindsey won by 17 despite being a two-term incumbent, and Tim Scott won by 24 despite being an appointee who had never won statewide. What happened with that?

My only memory of that race was that Lindsey had generally been seen as an unpopular & absent senator who was very much a creature of Washington; iirc he only got 65% in the GOP primary and had been one of those worried about a Primary.

[Tiger08]

Could someone who knows the politics of South Carolina give me a guide to how close it could get?

Looking at previous Senate & Governor races it seems that the Democrats actually have a pretty high average of between 40-45%...

What I find interesting is that when both Senate seats were on the ballot in 2014, Lindsey won by 17 despite being a two-term incumbent, and Tim Scott won by 24 despite being an appointee who had never won statewide. What happened with that?

Because people love Tim Scott (most on the right, center, and maybe even some center-left find him to be an extremely likable guy) and don't like Lindsey Graham that much. At that time, a lot of hard-right, talk-radio-style conservatives considered Graham a RINO (and many still do). Rush Limbaugh called him Grahamnesty for a long time. Even since Graham went full MAGA, no name opposition got over 30% statewide (including a majority in Greenville and Spartanburg) in the GOP primary this year. Harrison would not be nearly this close to Scott.

[Storr]

Could someone who knows the politics of South Carolina give me a guide to how close it could get?

Looking at previous Senate & Governor races it seems that the Democrats actually have a pretty high average of between 40-45%...

What I find interesting is that when both Senate seats were on the ballot in 2014, Lindsey won by 17 despite being a two-term incumbent, and Tim Scott won by 24 despite being an appointee who had never won statewide. What happened with that?

Though both Democrats still had right around the same percentages (38.8% for Hutto and 37.1% for Dickerson in the special election). There were two other candidates in Graham's race, an Independent and Libertarian who got 3.84% and 2.73%, respectively. While in the special Scott Senate race there was only an "American Party" third party candidate, which is evidently some centrist third party in SC, who got only 1.75%. Most of those Libertarian and Independent voters were probably hardcore Conservatives/Tea Partiers who didn't like Graham for his attempts at working across the isle (specifically his gang of 8 immigration bill with a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants that passed the Senate in 2013). Graham only won the Republican primary with 56.42% that year, after all. He was saved by the fact Conservatives/Tea Partiers never solidified behind one candidate running against him.

[Tiger08]

Could someone who knows the politics of South Carolina give me a guide to how close it could get?

Looking at previous Senate & Governor races it seems that the Democrats actually have a pretty high average of between 40-45%...

SC isn't a super elastic state. The D coalition here is mostly African Americans with an increasing number of Charleston-area suburbanites and young people in the three big cities (Greenville, Columbia, Charleston). The R coalition is Evangelicals in the Upstate, a decent amount of historically R suburbanites near Greenville, Columbia, Charleston, and Fort Mill (just south of Charlotte), wealthy retirees on the coast, some old money Southerners in medium and large towns and cities, typical rural South Rs everywhere else. Democrats usually get close to 45% of the vote.

Harrison has run a genius campaign, making it all about his inspiring personal story and Graham's flip-flopping (including clips from Hannity and Tucker) and not on specific political issues other than COVID handling (Rs would definitely win a non-personality-based campaign). I can see Harrison hitting 47-48 but I think it would be hard for him to get to 49 and extremely difficult to get to 50. There just isn't a path for a Democrat to hit 50% here barring a Roy Moore-esque scenario. Harrison's only hope is for Rs to vote third party, write in, or leave the Senate portion of the ballot blank. I expect him to significantly improve among suburbanites near Greenville, Fort Mill, Columbia, and Charleston, however. When you combine anti-Graham Rs (Graham got below 50% in the primary there) with well educated suburbanites, Greenville's margin will be closer than ever (Graham may even go below 55%).

One poll showed Trump outrunning Graham here by 9 points among Republicans. I'm guessing SCOTUS helps Graham there.

[CellarDoor]

I nominate this for best ad of the cycle.

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1309620608561414144

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Like Jebra, Graham is begging for Cash, votes, or even just a clap!

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/25/lindsey-graham-begs-for-cash-421952

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Graham is now saying that he might lose. If this is the case, if SC flips, so will MT, KS and GA. I am still waiting on another AK

KY and TX, Rs probably keep
 

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1309303160603729921
This is third time this week Leningrad Lindsey has gone on Fox to beg for donations.

I wonder if that won't hurt him with Trump voters just because of how weak it makes him look.

The Harrison campaign really has some good ads going here against Graham.

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1309494377744445441

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1309303160603729921
This is third time this week Leningrad Lindsey has gone on Fox to beg for donations.

I wonder if that won't hurt him with Trump voters just because of how weak it makes him look.

The Harrison campaign really has some good ads going here against Graham.

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1309494377744445441

That's actually a stellar ad. Might even depress the Trump/Graham vote if Harrison's lucky.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1309303160603729921
This is third time this week Leningrad Lindsey has gone on Fox to beg for donations.

I wonder if that won't hurt him with Trump voters just because of how weak it makes him look.

The Harrison campaign really has some good ads going here against Graham.

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1309494377744445441

That's actually a stellar ad. Might even depress the Trump/Graham vote if Harrison's lucky.

I was skeptical about Harrison for a long time, but he seems to be running a very good campaign. This is increasingly reminding me of TX-Sen 2018.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't get why Graham is whining like that. Wasn't he supposed to have a huge war chest after two decades of uncompetitive races?

[Roll Roons]

I don't get why Graham is whining like that. Wasn't he supposed to have a huge war chest after two decades of uncompetitive races?

It also could go the other way - he's never felt the need to fundraise big because he's been safe until this year. Even then, I think he has a big war chest, but it's just that Harrison has been raising an insane amount from out of state liberals eager to see Graham defeated. Again, not unlike Beto.

[GeneralMacArthur]

FYI that ad is by MeidasTouch, not Jaime Harrison.

Like so many of these PACs making slick video ads, I don't think they're actually booking airtime.  They're just putting the ad up on the internet for an audience of potential donors.

[Astatine]

FYI that ad is by MeidasTouch, not Jaime Harrison.

Like so many of these PACs making slick video ads, I don't think they're actually booking airtime.  They're just putting the ad up on the internet for an audience of potential donors.

In replies on Twitter they said they're currently raising money to air this ad.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't get why Graham is whining like that. Wasn't he supposed to have a huge war chest after two decades of uncompetitive races?

It also could go the other way - he's never felt the need to fundraise big because he's been safe until this year. Even then, I think he has a big war chest, but it's just that Harrison has been raising an insane amount from out of state liberals eager to see Graham defeated. Again, not unlike Beto.

Graham has been chairman of many important committees. I'm pretty sure that money kept flowing to his accounts even if when he didn't actively fundraise.

[KaiserDave]

Another Saturday, and 20 Dollars for Jaime from Brooklyn.

[Lognog]

Another Saturday, and 20 Dollars for Jaime from Brooklyn.

Graham's money is 100% as in state as Harrison's

[KaiserDave]

Another Saturday, and 20 Dollars for Jaime from Brooklyn.

Graham's money is 100% as in state as Harrison's

I'm not sure what you mean.

I'm referring to the fact that each Saturday I help collect money for Jaime at a Brooklyn Farmer's Market.

[Pericles]

Graham is a pretty weak candidate it seems. Still, another Kavanaugh hearing style tantrum could seal the deal for him.

[Lognog]

Another Saturday, and 20 Dollars for Jaime from Brooklyn.

Graham's money is 100% as in state as Harrison's

I'm not sure what you mean.

I'm referring to the fact that each Saturday I help collect money for Jaime at a Brooklyn Farmer's Market.

I was just making a joke that Graham attack's Harrison's money from being out of state while Graham turns around and does the same thing, except less effectively

[wbrocks67]

Graham is a pretty weak candidate it seems. Still, another Kavanaugh hearing style tantrum could seal the deal for him.

I think this cycle is proving what many people didn't want to believe: that people like Graham, and to a lesser extent Ernst, since she's newer, and really just not great candidates when it comes down to an actual competitive race. They've just been able to skate by because of polarization and the R next to their name.