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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #50 on: June 02, 2019, 09:38:50 PM »
« edited: June 03, 2019, 05:39:15 PM by Deputy GM Encke »

Lincoln spending numbers are all done. Note that these are spending changes since the last budget was passed. Revenue numbers will be up shortly, as well as RL spending baselines.

Quote
BillTitleCostNotes
L505Youth Development and Empowerment Act[1]77,069,000Yearly
L507Age-Appropriate Curriculum for the Betterment of Children ActunknownInitial funds taken from Kindergarten budget; current status unknown
L513No Child Marriage Act-780,057Yearly
L603Reasonable Limitations Act (Fines)-26,000,000Yearly; eliminated in 2018, reinstituted in 2019
L603Reasonable Limitations Act (+10% funding to HSAs w/free contraception)1,513,000,000Yearly
L6.5.1Flint Emergency Relief Act (federal grant)-765,000,000One-time
L6.5.1Flint Emergency Relief Act (regional match)765,000,000One-time
L601Education Act Amendment Bill 201768,596,881,812Yearly
L601Education Act Amendment Bill 2017 (property tax)[2]-35,000,000,000Yearly
L6.4.3Law Enforcement Act 2017[3]327,000,000Yearly
L7.1.1Lincoln Parks and Recreation Bill of 20173,000,000,000One-time
L7.4.2LincolnRail Act of 2017[4]5,000,000,000One-time (?)
L7.5.1Mandatory Vaccination Act of 2017[5]-27,247,500One-time
L7.3.1Department of Regional Security Act65,000,000Initial; current value unknown
L9.10.5Lincoln Infrastructure Renewal and Maintenance30,500,000,000Seems to be one time
L10.4.1Lincoln Gun Control Act of 2018 (fines)-8,623,000repealed in December 2018
L10.4.1Lincoln Gun Control Act of 2018 (licensing costs)0was to go into effect in 2019
L10.16.5Lincoln Prison Reform Act (allocated)155,000,000One-time
L10.16.5Lincoln Prison Reform Act (inmate wage increase)4,465,910,000Yearly
L10.25.4Soft Drug Legalization and Taxation Act (Other)-579,204,00010% sales tax
L10.25.4Soft Drug Legalization and Taxation Act (Cannabinoids)-1,251,828,00010% sales tax
L10.26.5The Gun Violence Protection Act50,000,000One-time
L11.4.2Game Show Credits and Taxes Act7,071,000For 2019; will increase in subsequent years
L11.11Support for Orphans and Widows of those who died in actual combat act1,224,736Yearly (dependent on combat deaths)
L11.17Police Body Camera Act [7]803,870,377One-time
L11.22Making Life Easier for Veterans Act (public land discount)3,892,111Yearly with variations
L11.22Making Life Easier for Veterans Act (eliminate fees)26,095,000
L12.9Improving Education in Lincoln Act91,433,268Substitute teacher pay
L13.06Education is Good Early Act1,868,400,000universal Pre-k (50%), yearly
L14.6The STEM Act0TBD by availability of funds
L14.9Finding True North Act (personal tax credit)164,738,9942018 and 2019 only
L14.9Finding True North Act (personal tax credit, STEM))47,280,0912018 and 2019 only
L14.9Finding True North Act (personal tax credit)200,000First year only (very rough estimate)
L15.3An Act for Lincoln's Farms5,000,000One time, further funding TBD
L15.6Easier Transport For All Act[9]476,000,000First year only
L15.9The Hunting Codification Act (licensing)-107,433,000For 2019, based on hunter statistics
LC 1.8Pharmaceutical Price Transparency Actunknownfine determined by inspector general
LC 1.13Smart Energy Act (Class I, III, IV)11,865,596for 2019; subject to change
LC 1.13Smart Energy Act (Class II) [10]973,125,000for 2019; subject to change
LC 1.14The Rail Investment Actnegligible
TOTAL80,243,950,832
[1]6050 sub-county municipal governments, 654 counties, 2 reps per council,      
estimated 60% of college age; average tuition and matriculation of 9180 and 400 dollars, respectively      
[2]source: MikeWells      
[3]avg salary of law enforcement=$65,400; 5000 new officers hired      
[4]after the construction is complete, 5000 workers will be retained; salaries must be accounted for      
[5]100,000 children age 2 were not vaccinated in 2015      
[6]Prison inmates given $6/hr wage, $3 paid by gov't; states in Lincoln currently provide hourly wages      
of roughly $0.50/hr; 600% increase in pay from current; 40-hr workweek assumed      
[7]Estimates derived from my previous cost analysis of FT 3-06 in 2017;assumes regional gov't pays 100%      
[8]public land discount      
[9] verrrrry rough estimate based on BART's budget      
[10]number of solar installations increasing rapidly; full 5000 subsisdy assumed      
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #51 on: June 02, 2019, 09:48:39 PM »

Quote
Here are the 2019 RL spending baselines for states in Lincoln. These serve as a guide for where funding levels are in real life, but don't necessarily need to be followed exactly. However, the spending numbers in the 2018 budget are in fact loosely based on these (or rather, they were taken from the South's budget template and modified arbitrarily).
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #52 on: June 03, 2019, 02:01:41 AM »

Quote
Revenue numbers are below. Previous GMs did not use the regional population multiplier to scale down their estimates for the gas and diesel taxes so those were too high in prior budgets. Meanwhile it seems that, from current data, cannabis, automobile, luxury, and property tax revenues were somewhat underestimated.

In total there are 509 billion dollars in revenue, while there are currently 690 billion dollars in spending (assuming the spending baselines are kept constant from last year's), leading to a deficit of 181 billion dollars. Keep in mind that there was supposedly a 122 billion dollars surplus in 2016, but this was largely due to the errors in the gas/diesel taxes, which led to a reported 78 billion in extra revenues that should not have existed. Also, the education budget is mysteriously low compared to RL.
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At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder
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« Reply #53 on: June 03, 2019, 07:21:41 AM »

Lincoln is finally getting some love!
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PSOL
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« Reply #54 on: June 08, 2019, 11:56:28 PM »

Can the unionization rates in Atlasia be shown? Specifically broken down by industry, as a whole, and by membership of each union in Atlasia.

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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #55 on: June 10, 2019, 11:02:37 AM »

Can the unionization rates in Atlasia be shown? Specifically broken down by industry, as a whole, and by membership of each union in Atlasia.



I will release a report on this after my finals are over and after I finish analyzing Pyro's tax plan. That should be sometime next week.
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #56 on: June 15, 2019, 06:19:15 PM »

Preliminary Analysis of Pyro's Tax Plan

The following contains some analysis of Pyro's tax plan, which he suggested to me via Discord a little over a week ago. The plan contained:

[1] corporate tax brackets of 5% (100K-1M), 10% (1M-10M), and 15% (10M+),
[2] a 30% cap on itemized deductions for households making over $250,000,
[3] equivalent treatment of capital gains and income,
[4] estate tax brackets of 15% (10M-50M) and 20% (50M+),
[5] a 2% tax on alcohol and tobacco products,
[6] a carbon tax akin to Fremont's (already passed in the legislature),
[7] a 1% financial transactions tax on all stock trades,
[8] a 5% tax on covered liabilities for institutions with 50B+ in total assets
[9] a 10% increase to the luxury tax (previously at 15%)
[10] a 1% wealth tax levied on the top 0.1%

Combined, items 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9 and 10 generate roughly 171.9 billion dollars in revenue (for reference, the Lincoln deficit is currently around 244 billion). Items 7 and 8 are much, much harder to quantify without more details about the nature of these proposals (which should probably have their own detailed bills). In particular, the suggested 1% FFT seems rather high. Sweden's famous FFT was of similar magnitude, had the result of pushing most trading overseas, and generated less than 5% of initial revenue estimates in any given year.



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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #57 on: June 15, 2019, 06:27:12 PM »

Preliminary Analysis of Pyro's Tax Plan

The following contains some analysis of Pyro's tax plan, which he suggested to me via Discord a little over a week ago. The plan contained:

[1] corporate tax brackets of 5% (100K-1M), 10% (1M-10M), and 15% (10M+),
[2] a 30% cap on itemized deductions for households making over $250,000,
[3] equivalent treatment of capital gains and income,
[4] estate tax brackets of 15% (10M-50M) and 20% (50M+),
[5] a 2% tax on alcohol and tobacco products,
[6] a carbon tax akin to Fremont's (already passed in the legislature),
[7] a 1% financial transactions tax on all stock trades,
[8] a 5% tax on covered liabilities for institutions with 50B+ in total assets
[9] a 10% increase to the luxury tax (previously at 15%)
[10] a 1% wealth tax levied on the top 0.1%

Combined, items 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9 and 10 generate roughly 171.9 billion dollars in revenue (for reference, the Lincoln deficit is currently around 244 billion). Items 7 and 8 are much, much harder to quantify without more details about the nature of these proposals (which should probably have their own detailed bills). In particular, the suggested 1% FFT seems rather high. Sweden's famous FFT was of similar magnitude, had the result of pushing most trading overseas, and generated less than 5% of initial revenue estimates in any given year.





For #8, we imposed a similar tax on "Too Big To Fail" banks in the revenue Enhancement act. Ill check for the data I used to score that.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #58 on: June 17, 2019, 07:08:05 PM »

Update: So we've done some digging on this line item:

"a 5% tax on covered liabilities for institutions with 50B+ in total assets"

We've hit a bit of a snag. In trying to measure what is being requested in the above line item, the above phraseology "covered liabilities", "institutions", and "$50 Billion in assets" suggests we are dealing specifically with financial institutions and that the covered liabilities refers to under Dodd-Frank  those liabilities that would be insured by the FDIC in the event that there was ever a failure by a non-commercial financial institution of the requisite size. The FDIC only insures commercial banks and "Too Big To Fail" banks and financial institutions.

In Atlasia, as per the DRRA IX "16. The regulation designating financial institutions with $50 Billion in assets “systemically important” shall be increased to $250 Billion. 12 USC § 5511 et seq. shall be amended accordingly." So under federal law the covered liability of a financial institution with less than $250 Billion in assets is $0.

It gets worse though. Im having preemption concerns that Dodd-Frank would likely preempt at this point as this seems more like a risk fee designed to coerce behavior rather than a pure tax. I am also having concerns over jurisdictional scope. If the idea is to tax the value of bank assets that are insured by the FDIC, The government of Lincoln only has the power to tax things within their territorial jurisdiction. That means the proposed tax needs to be on something tangential to Lincoln. You can tax income derived in Lincoln or tax income earned by citizens of Lincoln or tax the value of assets physically located in Lincoln, but you cant assess a global tax on liabilities external to Lincoln.

I believe a bank tax can still be done if the proposal is reworded by the legislators slightly to only cover income generated within the Region.
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Pericles
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« Reply #59 on: June 17, 2019, 08:33:05 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2019, 09:50:23 PM by Pericles »

I've asked you and one of your deputies about this multiple times on separate occasions but haven't gotten a clear answer yet. Can you please clarify what the situation is in Atlasia regarding the opioid epidemic-is it as bad or worse as the rl US, the more detail the better (within reason), and is life expectancy decreasing or not in Atlasia? This would be greatly appreciated by me and probably many others. Thank you.
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #60 on: June 18, 2019, 03:55:16 PM »

Analysis of the last two parts of Pyro's tax plan.

Note that, following Mr. R's concerns, Pyro altered the covered liabilities fee to a tax on 5% of gross income derived in Lincoln by financial institutions with combined total assets greater than $250 Billion. Negative economic effects of the FTT have been taken into account in that estimate.

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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #61 on: June 24, 2019, 07:19:57 PM »

New Lincoln tax plan (from Pyro/Tack ?)

This new plan, shared with me on Discord today by Tack, would make the following tax changes:
[1] Increase the third tax bracket by 1 percent, and the top three brackets (4,5, and 6) by 3 percent.
[2] Increase the gas tax to $0.50/gallon
[3] Increase the diesel tax to $0.70/gallon
[4] Increase the luxury tax to 30%
[5] 10% alcohol and tobacco taxes
[6] Increase the property tax brackets to 0%, 5%, 11%, 18%, 23%, and 28%

I've done 1,2,3,4 and 5. Item 6 will take a bit longer. However, I'd advise whoever thought up item 6 to reconsider... the previous brackets were 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5%, while RL property tax rates are usually somewhere in the 0 to 2% range, so the suggested rates are ridiculously excessive.





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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #62 on: July 08, 2019, 10:25:17 PM »

More Lincoln Property Tax Stuff

I wasn't happy with my rough property tax estimate that I originally did for the Lincoln budget so I decided to root around for some more data and try to get a better estimate (and one that could be applied consistently without a lot of guesswork). Granted, there is still plenty of guesswork (particularly  in assessing the median value of a home within each bracket), but it's still an improvement.

The new assessment results in an estimate that is 19.335 billion dollars more optimistic than my initial one. The deficit in the last budget amendment was 83.62 billion; this change brings that down to 64.29 billion.



These property taxes are already rather high; if you look at the 'yearly tax per household' column, you can see how much a household with the median property value in each bracket would pay per year. Compare this to the values for the RL states in Lincoln:



At the third bracket for Lincoln (100K-250K) we're already looking at values exceeding that of New Jersey, which has the highest property taxes in the nation. If the current property tax rates were doubled, as was proposed, then this would bring the annual tax burden for people in the second bracket (50K-100K) above that of New Jersey. Not sure that that's a good idea.

In any case, if one were to raise the brackets to those proposed (0-1-3-5-7-9 or 0-2-4-6-8), then one would simply apply the relevant multiplier to the numbers displayed in the table above. Doubling the tax for all brackets, for instance, would double the revenue. Both proposals would more than get rid of the deficit, assuming no negative effects. I'll be looking at existing research to try to quantify or otherwise determine possible side effects of large property tax increases.

Up next: thr's extra income tax bracket (as discussed on Lincolncord) and the single-payer estimate
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #63 on: July 09, 2019, 02:26:01 AM »

Lincoln Single Payer Cost Analysis

To start with, I re-checked the US Government Spending site, which is the source for the RL state spending baselines, and found that the 2019 state-level healthcare estimates had changed from 269 billion to 252.364 billion. So you can probably go and change that in the budget. The site changes its estimates rather frequently so sometimes numbers that are compiled months earlier will no longer be accurate when the budget is finalized.

Anyway, the healthcare segment of the expenditure pages on the site is broken down into four categories: Health, Hospitals, Current Operations - Environmental Health, and Vendor Payments for Medical Care. The sum of all of the spending in each of Lincoln's constituent states is shown below. Since the Lincoln budget is only absorbing the state-level expenditures, only the values in the first column are relevant.



The revenue 'codes' are described in detail on this site. Here are the relevant items (I'm excluding Code 27 because spending in that category is nearly negligible):

Quote
CODE 32: HEALTH

DEFINITION:    Provision of services for the conservation and improvement of public health, other than hospital care, and financial support of other governments' health programs.

EXAMPLES:   Public health administration, laboratories, public education, vital statistics, research, and other general health activities; categorical health programs (e.g., control of cancer, TB, socially transmitted diseases, mental illness, etc. and maternal and child health care); health-related inspection and regulation (e.g., inspection of restaurants, water supplies, food handlers, nursing homes, etc.); community and visiting nurses; immunization programs; out-patient health clinics; regulation of air and water quality, sanitary engineering, and other environmental health activities; rabies and animal control; abatement of mosquitoes, rodents, and other vermin; ambulance and emergency medical services ONLY IF handled separately from fire department; alcohol and drug abuse prevention and rehabilitation; school health services provided by a health agency; activities funded by Federal W.I.C. funds--Women, Infants, and Children. For Federal Government also includes Food and Drug Administration and Environmental Protection Agency (except sewerage construction grants).

EXCLUSIONS:   Vendor payments for medical appliances, supplies, or services under public assistance programs (use code E74); examination and licensing of health-related professions--e.g., doctors, nurses, and barbers (report at Protective Inspection and Regulation, NEC, code 66); activities related to agricultural standards or protection of agricultural products from disease (report at Other Agriculture, code 54); operation or construction of nursing homes (report at Public Welfare, codes 77/79); vocational rehabilitation (report at Education, codes 18/21); coroners and crime labs (report at Police Protection, code 62). For Federal Government exclude veterans' medical care (report at Veterans' Health, code 28).


CODE 36: HOSPITALS

DEFINITION:    Hospital facilities providing in-patient medical care and institutions primarily for care and treatment of handicapped (rather than education) which are directly administered by a government, including those operated by public universities. Also covers direct payments for acquisition or construction of hospitals whether or not the government will operate the completed facility.

EXAMPLES:   Government-operated general hospitals; institutions for the custody, treatment, or general care of the mentally insane or defective, feeble-minded, mentally retarded, or emotionally disturbed; TB sanatoria, maternity and children hospitals, orthopedic hospitals, and hospitals for chronic diseases; institutions for care and treatment of blind, deaf, developmentally disabled, or other special classes of handicap; hospitals associated with university medical schools (including paid student help).

EXCLUSIONS:   Nursing homes (or other welfare institutions) not directly associated with a public hospital (report at Public Welfare, codes 77/79); state schools for blind, deaf, or other handicapped primarily for education and training (report at Other Education, code 21); hospitalization of persons in other public or private hospitals (report at Other Hospitals, codes 38/39); payments to private vendors for medical care under welfare programs (use code E74); support of other public or private hospitals (use code 38); infirmaries serving particular institutions, like college infirmaries and prison hospitals (report at function involved); hospitals for criminally insane operated by corrections agency (report at Correctional Institutions, code 04); payments to or employment of private corporations which lease and operate government-owned hospitals (for payments, use code 38); instructional staff of medical school hospitals (report at Other Higher Education, code 18); veterans hospitals operated by U.S. Veterans Administration (report at Own Hospitals-Veterans, code 37).


CODE 74: VENDOR PAYMENTS FOR MEDICAL CARE

DEFINITION:    Payments under public welfare programs made directly to private vendors (i.e., individuals or nongovernmental organizations furnishing goods and services) for medical assistance and hospital or health care, including Medicaid (Title XIX), on behalf of low-income or other medically-needy persons unable to purchase such care.

EXAMPLES:   Payments to private vendors for: physician and other professional medical services, private hospital care, drugs and medicines, dental services, long-term health care (including hospices), home health care, dialysis treatment, medical appliances (e.g., prostheses), ambulatory care, laboratory services, eyeglasses and hearing aids, and so forth; premiums paid to insurers for future medical costs of needy persons. Includes all direct payments to private hospitals or health care providers under Medicaid, general relief, public assistance, and any other Federal or state welfare program.

EXCLUSIONS:   Direct payments to benefited persons themselves (report at Other Cash Assistance Payments, code E68); administrative activities, setting of provider fees and rates, establishing standards, etc. (report at Other Public Welfare, code 79); intergovernmental payments to other public hospitals for medical assistance under public welfare programs (report payments from Medicaid funds at Federal Categorical Assistance Programs, code 67, and payments from all other funds at code 79); medical commodities, services, or other assistance provided through government's own hospitals or health agencies (report at Health, codes 28 / 32, or Own Hospitals, codes 36 / 37); state payments to finance locally-administered medical assistance (Medicaid) programs (report at code 67 [sic]); premiums for health insurance coverage for government's employees (report at function of paying agency or, if a government-wide payment, at Other and Unallocable, code 89).

Therefore, a transition to a single-payer system would *only* absorb the expenditures for Code 74, while services for special groups, defined in the R&RPH as 'active duty military, veteran healthcare and senior healthcare, and the other special groups as detailed in Part III' would still covered by AtlasCare regardless of an opt-out for instituting single-payer. Therefore, I am not factoring those costs into the bill.

Long story short, here's my estimate (818 billion dollars). Relevant information is recorded in the footnotes.:

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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #64 on: July 24, 2019, 12:31:02 AM »
« Edited: July 24, 2019, 12:34:52 AM by Deputy GM Encke »

Since this was requested by a few people, here is a spreadsheet containing relevant data for calculation of personal income tax revenues.

Warnings/disclaimers for anyone attempting to use this data:
1) Do not alter the effective tax rate column unless you're adding a new bracket somewhere in the middle. It calculates the effective tax rate automatically from the marginal rates in column D.

2) The main difficulty in adding new brackets arises from the calculation of the median wage in a certain bracket. If you want to add a new tax bracket, the spreadsheet does not have enough information to calculate the median wage in each bracket, so you'll have to ask me to do that (the relevant data for that is very messy and extensive and I have that stored on a separate spreadsheet that I use to experiment).

3) If you want to use this for regional data, then you need to apply the proper population multiplier (0.3114 for Lincoln, 0.4143 for the South, 0.2731 for Fremont), and change the brackets of course.

4) A small economic/population multiplier is applied as an aggregate of various in-game factors (PR statehood, difference in unemployment, etc.). The spreadsheet uses the 2019 multiplier, and the 2020 one should not differ by more than a few percent, but it will still have to be calculated later.

5) Wage data is subject to change if new IRS data is made available before budget-time (that is, data different from that used for the 2019 budget).

6) Data for the individual brackets in this spreadsheet is different from the data from the FY2019 budget, although the total is the same. This is because the data from the FY19 budget was done using a different (albeit valid) methodology that involved me taking the sum of all revenues produced by each marginal rate (rather than by each income category).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EzGnBne8-IoB5_MLACpYjzrC4lxki70dIaTQ1ydugEk/edit?usp=sharing
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #65 on: July 25, 2019, 07:42:41 PM »

Analysis of Estate Tax Plan

Important Note: In the FY2019 budget I listed an estate tax and a 'flat tax.' That was incorrectly labeled 'flat tax' (because I had copy/pasted the template that I used to calculate the payroll taxes) and should actually be labeled the gift tax. Therefore the estate tax revenues from 2019 were actually 27.9 billion, not 29.6 billion.

That being said, here is the analysis of the estate tax bill. The original (unamended) bill raises around 38.7 billion dollars, which is fairly consistent with the 'more than 35 billion' estimate from DC. Since the estate tax was already raised to 45% last year, this represents a smaller increase in revenues than it would if it were being applied in RL. Also the farm/business exemptions lower revenues to 34.5 billion, which is the final estimate, and represents a net increase of 6.6 billion from last year's numbers.


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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #66 on: July 29, 2019, 06:04:16 AM »

I would like to request figures for the following changes to our tax code:

Teacher's Tax Credit
Lodging Facility Sales and Use Tax

Thank you to the GM Department!

Scott, FM
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #67 on: July 30, 2019, 01:12:32 AM »

I would like to request figures for the following changes to our tax code:

Teacher's Tax Credit
Lodging Facility Sales and Use Tax

Thank you to the GM Department!

Scott, FM

I think I costed the Teacher's Tax Credit one already.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #68 on: July 30, 2019, 06:09:04 AM »

I would like to request figures for the following changes to our tax code:

Teacher's Tax Credit
Lodging Facility Sales and Use Tax

Thank you to the GM Department!

Scott, FM

I think I costed the Teacher's Tax Credit one already.

Sorry.  I checked the thread and you did. Tongue
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PSOL
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« Reply #69 on: July 30, 2019, 09:02:37 AM »

Can I get the full ramifications of my Tax Adjustments Act, the total revenue, revenue raised per income level, and contrasted with the gas taxes on the other gas tax on the Lincoln regional budget bill previously appraised.
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #70 on: August 01, 2019, 11:11:07 PM »

This is the gas/diesel tax analysis for PSOL's proposed income-based fuel tax. Raises 74.8% and 78.1% of the revenues that the current iteration of the fuel tax raises in the budget.
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #71 on: August 02, 2019, 02:31:54 AM »
« Edited: August 02, 2019, 02:46:07 AM by Deputy GM Encke »

Relatively straightforward analysis of S 19.3-5 Appreciate your teachers act, as requested by YT. The gas tax would raise 20 billion more than it needs to; a $0.15 tax would suffice for the purposes of this bill.




EDIT: Apparently it's a half-cent gas tax, not a $0.50 gas tax. Update:
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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #72 on: August 03, 2019, 01:39:34 AM »

Quick analysis of FT 12-10 as requested by Scott. 5.091 billion in revenue for FY2020.

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Fmr. Representative Encke
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« Reply #73 on: August 12, 2019, 01:40:53 AM »

K, update for Lincoln budget. Was planning on writing a longer write-up for this but I have an awful headache and I've been extremely busy IRL for pretty much the last one/two weeks.

Bringing the wealth tax to 3% results in 39.308 billion in revenues.

Bringing the cannabis tax to 20% results in $4,013,377,925.76 in revenues. Bringing it to 12% results in $2,488,294,313.97. (note that increases in the tax rate reduce consumption, which is why these numbers are not solid multiples of the old numbers).

Bringing the tobacco tax to 12% results in $3,415,637,297.36 in revenues.

Bringing the alcohol tax to 12% results in $6,840,495,352.39 in revenues.

Pyro brought up an interesting point regarding intergovernmental transfers and whether the spending numbers that I've been using (from the US government spending state details pages) count intergovernmental transfers from the federal gov't to the state or local gov'ts as part of state spending or as federal spending. After sifting through the data and comparing it state-by-state to other sources, I'm finding inconclusive results; some states list the expected 'state-only' spending amount, while other states seem to list the sum of both state and federal-intergovernmental spending. I've contacted the site administrator to inquire about this but have not gotten a response yet.

However, even if Lincoln is 'overspending' (i.e. they are paying directly for things that should be subsidized by the federal gov't), remember also that there are transfers between the state and local governments, and that the current method of determining the spending baselines in the budget only takes spending listed directly as 'state spending,' excluding money transferred to localities. If one accepts that federal->regional spending should be excluded in the regional budget, it would follow that regional->local spending would be moved into the regional budget, complicating matters a bit more.

In any case, I'll continue looking into this issue.
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Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
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« Reply #74 on: August 20, 2019, 06:36:05 PM »

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