Office of the Game Moderator

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

There was an 'other revenues' section in the FY2018 budget that I wasn't sure what to do with; since FUTA and the estate tax weren't included as separate sections in last year's budget, and I calculated them individually this year, I subtracted those values from the 'other revenues' section this year. I assume most of that value is the federal reserve's income.

I discovered a small mistake in my income tax numbers (was using an old multiplier where I erroneously used a population growth multiplier rather than a taxpayer-base growth multiplier). That has been fixed here.

A cursory glance at Mr. R's numbers from December reveals a net spending decrease of 54.236 billion (this is with the fixed estate tax numbers), bringing total spending to 4107.47 billion. With current revenue numbers (subject to change if I discover any more mistakes), that gives us a deficit of 549.66 billion, significantly down from the 873.23 billion deficit last year. Seems a bit too good to be true (although in all fairness so I will be double-checking these numbers in the next few days.

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[Sirius_]

Good to see unemployment down, I'm pretty sure a year ago today it was almost recession levels.
And of course, thank all of you for releasing it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Good to see unemployment down, I'm pretty sure a year ago today it was almost recession levels.
And of course, thank all of you for releasing it.

A large part of previous numbers was faulty data sets that conflicted with each other. This led to us having non-recessionary GDP numbers with recessionary employment levels, because of the activity metric impacting unemployment numbers to an excessive amount.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Oh and real quick just to add some context to the numbers, I had intended for full stories relating to these factoids, but with the steady decrease in unemployment, Christmas spending was way up including at brick and mortar stores due to chinese blockade related shortages. Domestic Christmas tree sales were the highest seen due to related shortages of imported artificial trees; environmental tariffs made the artificial trees cost more as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Oh and real quick just to add some context to the numbers, I had intended for full stories relating to these factoids, but with the steady decrease in unemployment, Christmas spending was way up including at brick and mortar stores due to chinese blockade related shortages. Domestic Christmas tree sales were the highest seen due to related shortages of imported artificial trees; environmental tariffs made the artificial trees cost more as well.

Hooray for Protectionism!

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

The analysis of illegal immigration pre- and post-Come Out of the Shadows (COOTS) can be found in the GM's newspaper.

Upon request from Governor YoungTexan, I will now be commencing work on the Southern budget.

[Mr. Reactionary]

I, Mr. Reactionary, by the authority vested in me by the Laws of the Republic of Atlasia as Game Moderator, first officer of the game engine thereof, here remove Fhtagn (R.I.P.) from the Office of Deputy Game Moderator and hereby nominate and submit the candidacy of Scott for Deputy Game Moderator for Stories.

- R

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Thank you very much, Mr. GM.  This appointment is a great honer!

[Mr. Reactionary]

Audit Update: Here is the Subdepartment of Commerce audit. Education and Energy are close. I then intend to move on to HUD and Labor. As far as grand visions, I recommend Commerce be kept to house all agencies responsible for regulating federal commerce rather than the current hodgepodge of agencies. I recommend most of the existing agencies within Commerce be eliminated or transferred to a different Subdepartment to maximize on efficiencies.

As far as the dollar amounts, I conducted the audit using real life data and then adjust it against the funding amounts set in the last Budget CR that specified funding levels. The only listed appropriation I believe covers this is "other advancement of commerce" which is funded at $7.7 Billion. The real life Commerce budget is $13.769 Billion so we are operating at 56% program funding compared to real life. I dont have the power to decide which programs get defunded so I applied the 0.56 multiplier against the real life numbers to reach the audit results. Congress may want to restore some of the cuts.

Subdepartment of Commerce
Recommendation: Eliminate 4 undersecretary positions (Savings $3 Million)

Economic Development Administration - $192 Million
. Administrative – $21 Million
. Public Works Grant Program – $56 million
. Economic Adjustment Revolving Loan Program – $20 million*
. Planning Grant Program – $18 Million
. Coal Community Grant Program – $17 Million
. Regional Innovation Strategies Program – $10 million
     . i6 Challenge – $6 Million
     . Fund Support Grant competition – $4 Million
. Trade Adjustment Assistance Centers – $7 Million
. Research and National Technical Assistance program – $6 Million
. Disaster Aid Program – $17 million
     Recommendation: Eliminate (Savings $192 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Public Works Grant Program (Savings $56 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Economic Adjustment Revolving Loan Program (Savings $20 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Planning Grant Program – (Savings $18 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Coal Community Grant Program (Savings $17 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Regional Innovation Strategies Program (Savings $10 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Trade Adjustment Assistance Centers (Savings $7 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate National Technical Assistance research program (Savings $6 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Disaster Aid Program (Savings $17 Million)

     
Minority Business Development Agency - $10 Million
     Recommendation: Eliminate (Savings $10 Million)


National Telecommunications and Information Administration -  $702 Million
. Salaries – $22 Million
. Broadband Opportunities Program – $12 Million
. State and Local Implementation Grant Program – $14 million
. Network Construction Fund – $658 Million
     Recommendation: Transfer duties to FCC (Savings $3 million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Broadband Opportunities Program (Savings $12 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate State and Local Implementation Grant Program (Savings $14 Million)
     Recommendation: Auction off more spectrum under NTIA control (Savings $???)


National Institute of Standards and Technology – $500 Million
. Scientific and Technical Research Services – $407 Million
. Industrial Technology Services – $85 Million
   . Hollings Manufacturing Extension Partnership Program - $71 Million
   . Baldridge Performance Excellence Program - $0
   . ManufacturingUSA Program - $14 Million
. Wireless Innovation Fund – $22 Million
     Recommendation: Transfer to Subdeparment of Science (Savings $13 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Wireless Innovation Fund (Savings $22 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Industrial Technology Services (Savings $85 Million)


National Technical Information Service - $0
     Recommendation: Transfer to Subdeparment of Science (Savings N/A)


Economics and Statistics Administration - $0
     Recommendation: Eliminate (Savings N/A)


Bureau of Economic Analysis – $55 Million
     Recommendation: Transfer to Subdeparment of Science (Savings $4 Million)


Bureau of the Census - $821 Million
     Recommendation: Transfer to Subdeparment of Science (Savings $5 Million)
     Recommendation: Restore lost funding (Costs $679 Million)


Patent and Trademark Office - +$111 Million
     Recommendation: Direct surplus revenue towards restoring funding cuts within these programs (Savings $111 Million)


 International Trade Administration – $265 Million
Recommendation: Transfer to Department of State (Savings $7 Million)


Bureau of Industry and Security – $67 Million
Recommendation: Transfer to Subdepartment of Homeland Security (Savings $6 Million)
Recommendation: Restore funding (Costs $52 Million)


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – $5.698 Billion
. Administration – $1.898 Billion
. New purchases – $493 Million
. National Marine Fisheries Service - $574 Million
   . Gulf Coast Recovery monitoring – $4 Million
   . Pacific Coastal Salmon Recovery – $30 Million
   . Fisheries Disaster Assistance – $6 Million
   . Fisheries Finance Program - $17 Million*
   . Fisheries Promotion – $7 Million
   . Misc. fish restoration and science – $493 Million
. National Weather Service – $640 Million
. National Ocean Service - $315 Million
. National Environmental and Satellite Data Information Service - $1.315 Billion
. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - $274 Million
   . National Sea Grant College - $41 Million
. Office of Marine and Aviation Operations - $189 Million
   . National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Commissioned Corps – N/A
     Recommendation: Transfer all except NMFS to Subdepartment of Science (Savings $23 Million)
     Recommendation: Transfer Marine Fisheries Service to Subdepartment of Interior (Savings $10 million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Pacific Coastal Salmon Recovery Program (Savings $30 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Fisheries Disaster Assistance Program (Savings $6 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Fisheries Finance Program (Savings $17 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate Fisheries Promotion Program (Savings $73 Million)
     Recommendation: Eliminate National Sea Grant College (Savings $41 Million)
     Recommendations: Restore National Weather Service Funding (Costs $500 Million)

[Mr. Reactionary]

The big hit from the multiplier sort of eats up the savings here. If all the recommendations are adopted including using the patent money towards restoring some cuts i think we get $687 million in savings. Unfortunately $1.231 billion is recommended restored, so if all the recommendations are adopted congress will need to find $544 million more to restore funding to census, weather service, and National security export control enforcement.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Was this bill's costs and revenues officially estimated? If not, can you guys please do it.

https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/Cheaper_Energy_Helps_All_Act

[Mr. Reactionary]

Was this bill's costs and revenues officially estimated? If not, can you guys please do it.

https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/Cheaper_Energy_Helps_All_Act

Net $2.048 Billion in savings

Ninja has the specific breakdown.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

A Few Words on the Southern Budget

I apologize for taking so long to get this done. I have been very busy over the past few weeks and to add to that, the Southern budgets and budget threads for the past two years were very obscure and lacking in detail.

First, a few notes about the Southern budgetary process. Apparently, a 'base value' is calculated by summing the revenues and spending of each of the South's constituent states. According to old threads from 2015-16, these base values are calculated using data from the sites http://usgovernmentspending.com and https://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com, with the basic categories maintained. A few quick run-throughs of the data demonstrate that the values used in past budgets ignored local spending/revenues, and only factored in state spending/revenues into the baseline. This has been maintained in the below image, which contains calculated baseline values with economic multipliers (since Southern unemployment overall is actually higher than it is in real life, this actually decreases the baseline revenue).

There are a few issues and discrepancies between these numbers and those in previous budgets. For one, it seems that whoever did the 2017 and 2018 budgets never went back and updated the spending baselines, which were first calculated in 2016. As such, the baselines have been identical for all three years, even as economic conditions and population have changed. This is a bit annoying, because it means that prior budgets have been playing with the baselines in ways that don't accurately reflect the 'up-to-date' state numbers; for instance, in S 18.3-9 (Amendment to the Southern Budget), the education budget was increased to 120 billion. This is smaller than the 'correct' 2019 (or even the 2018) baseline of 136.77 billion. Likewise, many other categories in the budget are actually underfunded right now, using the 2018 budget as a guide; revenues baselines were updated in 2018, but not spending baselines.

Secondly, I noticed that there was a huge discrepancy between my income tax numbers and the income tax numbers that were reported in the 2017 and 2018 budgets. By my calculation, state income tax revenues should total 110.18 billion dollars; however, in 2017 and 2018, the income tax section listed only $13.6 billion dollars in revenues. A glance at the 2016 budget made me realize the issue: in 2016, the income tax numbers were broken down into personal and corporate categories, with the first of these totaling 81 billion and the second totaling 13.6 billion. In the 2017 budget, whoever did the numbers apparently eliminated the income tax section, perhaps due to the Southern repeal of the personal income tax; however, this should not have been done, since the baselines are state figures, not regional ones. So, the South has been underreporting its income tax revenues for the past two years.

Thirdly, there are discrepancies in the Social Insurance baseline category that can't be explained away so simply. My calculations show 73.68 billion in revenues in this category, while the 2016 and 2017 budgets listed this category as 197.9 billion dollars. This is a bit bizarre and resulted in a rather high total revenue estimate of 708.5 billion in the 2016 budget, higher than either the 2017 or 2018 budgets (due to their exclusion of the state income tax baseline). I would appreciate any comments from those who did work on the 2016 budget.

In general I feel like the budgetary process for the last two years has been on autopilot, with little concern for how numbers were calculated or what they meant. Apparently, the Southern region is absorbing all revenues collected by the states, as well as all spending. Meanwhile, the revenues are still dependent on state income tax rates. So the South is essentially letting the states set their own rates, and then collecting all of their revenues (meanwhile, local government revenues have not been absorbed by the region for some reason). Thus, the 'baselines' that provide the bulk of the South's revenue are actually dependent on factors that are controlled by the states, which are NPCs. This seems a bit odd to me and it seems like it is worth discussing in more detail. In particular, the South is changing their spending numbers at will (e.g. the alteration of 'other spending' to 20 billion dollars in S 18.3-9, against a prior baseline of 25 billion), so they are basically taking the states' revenues and then slashing spending in areas that were supposed to be bare-minimum spending transfers to begin with. A rather egregious example of this is S 18.4-27 (Hurricane Relief Act), which takes 22 billion from the 'Other Spending' category. The Other Spending category should NOT be for discretionary spending, people! If you want discretionary spending, make another category for it!

Alterations to revenue numbers from last year will be discussed (overall, changes to spending and revenue are minor) in a separate post.

[Mr. Reactionary]

A Few Words on the Southern Budget

I apologize for taking so long to get this done. I have been very busy over the past few weeks and to add to that, the Southern budgets and budget threads for the past two years were very obscure and lacking in detail.

First, a few notes about the Southern budgetary process. Apparently, a 'base value' is calculated by summing the revenues and spending of each of the South's constituent states. According to old threads from 2015-16, these base values are calculated using data from the sites http://usgovernmentspending.com and https://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com, with the basic categories maintained. A few quick run-throughs of the data demonstrate that the values used in past budgets ignored local spending/revenues, and only factored in state spending/revenues into the baseline. This has been maintained in the below image, which contains calculated baseline values with economic multipliers (since Southern unemployment overall is actually higher than it is in real life, this actually decreases the baseline revenue).

There are a few issues and discrepancies between these numbers and those in previous budgets. For one, it seems that whoever did the 2017 and 2018 budgets never went back and updated the spending baselines, which were first calculated in 2016. As such, the baselines have been identical for all three years, even as economic conditions and population have changed. This is a bit annoying, because it means that prior budgets have been playing with the baselines in ways that don't accurately reflect the 'up-to-date' state numbers; for instance, in S 18.3-9 (Amendment to the Southern Budget), the education budget was increased to 120 billion. This is smaller than the 'correct' 2019 (or even the 2018) baseline of 136.77 billion. Likewise, many other categories in the budget are actually underfunded right now, using the 2018 budget as a guide; revenues baselines were updated in 2018, but not spending baselines.

Secondly, I noticed that there was a huge discrepancy between my income tax numbers and the income tax numbers that were reported in the 2017 and 2018 budgets. By my calculation, state income tax revenues should total 110.18 billion dollars; however, in 2017 and 2018, the income tax section listed only $13.6 billion dollars in revenues. A glance at the 2016 budget made me realize the issue: in 2016, the income tax numbers were broken down into personal and corporate categories, with the first of these totaling 81 billion and the second totaling 13.6 billion. In the 2017 budget, whoever did the numbers apparently eliminated the income tax section, perhaps due to the Southern repeal of the personal income tax; however, this should not have been done, since the baselines are state figures, not regional ones. So, the South has been underreporting its income tax revenues for the past two years.

Thirdly, there are discrepancies in the Social Insurance baseline category that can't be explained away so simply. My calculations show 73.68 billion in revenues in this category, while the 2016 and 2017 budgets listed this category as 197.9 billion dollars. This is a bit bizarre and resulted in a rather high total revenue estimate of 708.5 billion in the 2016 budget, higher than either the 2017 or 2018 budgets (due to their exclusion of the state income tax baseline). I would appreciate any comments from those who did work on the 2016 budget.

In general I feel like the budgetary process for the last two years has been on autopilot, with little concern for how numbers were calculated or what they meant. Apparently, the Southern region is absorbing all revenues collected by the states, as well as all spending. Meanwhile, the revenues are still dependent on state income tax rates. So the South is essentially letting the states set their own rates, and then collecting all of their revenues (meanwhile, local government revenues have not been absorbed by the region for some reason). Thus, the 'baselines' that provide the bulk of the South's revenue are actually dependent on factors that are controlled by the states, which are NPCs. This seems a bit odd to me and it seems like it is worth discussing in more detail. In particular, the South is changing their spending numbers at will (e.g. the alteration of 'other spending' to 20 billion dollars in S 18.3-9, against a prior baseline of 25 billion), so they are basically taking the states' revenues and then slashing spending in areas that were supposed to be bare-minimum spending transfers to begin with. A rather egregious example of this is S 18.4-27 (Hurricane Relief Act), which takes 22 billion from the 'Other Spending' category. The Other Spending category should NOT be for discretionary spending, people! If you want discretionary spending, make another category for it!

Alterations to revenue numbers from last year will be discussed (overall, changes to spending and revenue are minor) in a separate post.

Oof. Good work cracking the code as always.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So much of our budget woes and difficulties come from lack of process and procedure. In its absence people just throw random numbers on the board and roll with it.

I would point out though, that since the Regional legislatures are often populated by newer members, it is not to be expected or reasonable even to expect them to know such a process, especially when it was barely followed or even understood by the veterans in the region. That being said, this is where it becomes necessary for support directed towards helping the newer members.

We have a similar problem federally because 1) We don't have three separate categories of spending (Budget, appropriations and authorizations) like real life and 2) we get spending thrown into random bills, which then makes it an arduous task to compile all such for a given period. As a result of our work on the DPC, I think there is grounds for at least a couple rule changes on the application of spending and delay of such to the following fiscal year unless it is an emergency like a Hurricane or something.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Another issue I have just found:

The 2017 budget (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=260408.0) lists a corporate income tax base of 13.6 billion, and then states that regional corporate income tax is 5%, yielding a regional revenue of of 22.7 billion. A quick calculation using RL corporate tax revenues reveals that this is a reasonable value (2019 numbers reveal 25.15 billion in regional corporate tax revenues). However, for some reason, the corporate income tax base was not added to the regional corporate tax, which means that the revenue numbers in 2017 and 2018 were underestimated by an amount equal to the baseline (13.6 billion).

So corporate income tax revenues actually total 38.75 billion (and total income tax revenues total 135.33 billion), which is helpful in reducing some of the baseline deficit.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

So I just had a brief conversation with PiT, where he confirmed that my methodology was correct.

I have checked and rechecked the numbers, and am still getting 70-ish billion in social insurance revenues, so the only reasonable explanation is that the 197.9 billion figure reported in prior budgets was a mistake. This means that Southern revenue has been hugely overestimated for the past few years, and is the primary cause of the current deficit.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

For the benefit of onlookers, I will post any comments made in the Southern budget thread here as well. I have filed a bug report for the government revenue website so hopefully those empty tables will be fixed soon (not only for the southern budget, but for future reference if, say, Fremont wants to absorb state spending as well).

Alright, as I mentioned privately to Wulfric and YT, the revenue numbers site is now not displaying any revenue data at all; the tables have been blank for the past day or so (meanwhile, the spending tables are still available for some reason). As a result I can't provide detailed baseline revenues for 2016-2018 until the site's data comes back.

As a substitute, I used a Southern yearly population multiplier, as well as in-game unemployment numbers from those years to estimate the corrected revenues from 2016-2018.

Fortunately, the situation is not as dire as this year's baselines would suggest; correcting revenues leads to a massive reduction in the surplus reserves, but the surplus still exists, and is around 22 billion dollars.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

K. Southern budget stuff is done.

K. Here is a list of (hopefully complete) budget changes (both spending and revenue) that I have calculated. Some of the numbers are rather rough, but really make no difference because new spending is dominated by the 8 billion naval infrastructure bill.

Bill	Title	Cost	Notes
S 18.1-25	Naval Infrastructure Spending Act	8,000,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-17	Rough Bulldog Act	8,000	One-time
S 18.1-10	Development of Foreign Language Programs in Schools Act	10,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-12	Prison Reform Act	170,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-12	Prison Reform Act	-22,000,000	Annual savings
S 18.1-11	Animal Welfare Act (commemorative tokens)	-360,000	One-time
S 18.1-11	Animal Welfare Act (commemorative tokens)	-360,000	One-time
S 18.3-23	Raccoon Resistance Act	20,000,000	One-time
S 18.4-40	Jeb Stuart Medical Research Gift Act	500,000	One-time
S 18.4-27	Hurricane Relief Act	22,000,000,000	One-time; factored into discretionary
S 18.22	Southern Young Athlets Assistance Act	5,000,000	Annual
S 17.5-16	Celebrating Our Southern Region Act	-3,200,000	One-time
S 18.18	Sales Tax Exemption Act	7,450,000	Annual
S 18.1-22	School is Cool Act	5,000,000	Tax
S 18.1-30	Opiate Overdose Prevention Act	2,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-30	Opiate Overdose Prevention Act	-829,000,000	Tax
S 19.1-8	Protecting the Health and Safety of Babies and Women	-13,219,000	Tax
S 18.1-13	Real ID Compliance Act	14,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-13	Real ID Compliance Act	-20,000,000	Apply to RL state numbers
S 18.3-7	Inmate Resources Act	165,000,000	depends on incarceration
S 19-1.14	Online Lottery Act	-310,000,000	Annual
S 18.3-16	Southern Tax Relief Act	860,265,114	Annual Tax Credit
S 19.1-17	Southern Gambling Act	-505,484,070	BASE (annual)
S 19.1-17	Southern Gambling Act	-1,342,332,000	5% for online+casinos (subject to increase as more casinos built)
S 18.4-21	Tax-Exempt HSAs Act	19,000,000	Apply to Alabama RL numbers
S 18.3-25	Teaching Incentives Act	76,231,200	Yearly dependent on education majors
S 18.4-13	Better Skools Act	-18,000,000	Apply to RL state numbers
S 18.4-11	Go South Young Man Act	735,504,000	FY2019 Only
S 18.1-20	Hunting and Fishing Act	0	Tied to inflation; check back in 3 years
S 18.1-33	More Obsolete Crimes Deletion Act	30,000,000	Apply to WV revenue numbers
S 18-4.17	Ban Ban Act	-21,477,000	Yearly dependent on uranium sales
S 17.5-5	More Doctors and Hospitals Act (surcharge)	3,684,000	Apply to state revenue numbers
S 17.5-5	More Doctors and Hospitals Act (prop. tax)	145,000,000	Apply to ad-valorem
S 17.5-17	Asset Seizure Reform Act	310,725,000	Apply to state revenue numbers
S 19.1-22	Everglades Environmental Protection Act	10,000,000	to FL
S 18-4.16	Fast Act Amendments Act	3,000,000	one-time
S 18.1-19	One More Year Act	-8,000,000	net
TOTAL SPENDING INCREASE		$7,498,935,244

[Mr. Reactionary]

K. Southern budget stuff is done.

K. Here is a list of (hopefully complete) budget changes (both spending and revenue) that I have calculated. Some of the numbers are rather rough, but really make no difference because new spending is dominated by the 8 billion naval infrastructure bill.

Bill	Title	Cost	Notes
S 18.1-25	Naval Infrastructure Spending Act	8,000,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-17	Rough Bulldog Act	8,000	One-time
S 18.1-10	Development of Foreign Language Programs in Schools Act	10,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-12	Prison Reform Act	170,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-12	Prison Reform Act	-22,000,000	Annual savings
S 18.1-11	Animal Welfare Act (commemorative tokens)	-360,000	One-time
S 18.1-11	Animal Welfare Act (commemorative tokens)	-360,000	One-time
S 18.3-23	Raccoon Resistance Act	20,000,000	One-time
S 18.4-40	Jeb Stuart Medical Research Gift Act	500,000	One-time
S 18.4-27	Hurricane Relief Act	22,000,000,000	One-time; factored into discretionary
S 18.22	Southern Young Athlets Assistance Act	5,000,000	Annual
S 17.5-16	Celebrating Our Southern Region Act	-3,200,000	One-time
S 18.18	Sales Tax Exemption Act	7,450,000	Annual
S 18.1-22	School is Cool Act	5,000,000	Tax
S 18.1-30	Opiate Overdose Prevention Act	2,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-30	Opiate Overdose Prevention Act	-829,000,000	Tax
S 19.1-8	Protecting the Health and Safety of Babies and Women	-13,219,000	Tax
S 18.1-13	Real ID Compliance Act	14,000,000	One-time
S 18.1-13	Real ID Compliance Act	-20,000,000	Apply to RL state numbers
S 18.3-7	Inmate Resources Act	165,000,000	depends on incarceration
S 19-1.14	Online Lottery Act	-310,000,000	Annual
S 18.3-16	Southern Tax Relief Act	860,265,114	Annual Tax Credit
S 19.1-17	Southern Gambling Act	-505,484,070	BASE (annual)
S 19.1-17	Southern Gambling Act	-1,342,332,000	5% for online+casinos (subject to increase as more casinos built)
S 18.4-21	Tax-Exempt HSAs Act	19,000,000	Apply to Alabama RL numbers
S 18.3-25	Teaching Incentives Act	76,231,200	Yearly dependent on education majors
S 18.4-13	Better Skools Act	-18,000,000	Apply to RL state numbers
S 18.4-11	Go South Young Man Act	735,504,000	FY2019 Only
S 18.1-20	Hunting and Fishing Act	0	Tied to inflation; check back in 3 years
S 18.1-33	More Obsolete Crimes Deletion Act	30,000,000	Apply to WV revenue numbers
S 18-4.17	Ban Ban Act	-21,477,000	Yearly dependent on uranium sales
S 17.5-5	More Doctors and Hospitals Act (surcharge)	3,684,000	Apply to state revenue numbers
S 17.5-5	More Doctors and Hospitals Act (prop. tax)	145,000,000	Apply to ad-valorem
S 17.5-17	Asset Seizure Reform Act	310,725,000	Apply to state revenue numbers
S 19.1-22	Everglades Environmental Protection Act	10,000,000	to FL
S 18-4.16	Fast Act Amendments Act	3,000,000	one-time
S 18.1-19	One More Year Act	-8,000,000	net
TOTAL SPENDING INCREASE		$7,498,935,244

Beautiful dude.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Putting this here since it was an officially requested analysis from Devout Centrist:

Parental Leave Act of 2019: Cost Analysis

From NAICS data, there are 11432180 businesses with between 1 and 4 employees, 1698743 businesses with between 5 and 9 employees, 741725 businesses with between 10 and 19 employees, and 445906 businesses with between 20 and 49 employees. Fitting a curve to the data and integrating yields 67 million employees working for businesses with fewer than 50 employees, 46% of the total of 145 million. (as an useful quality check, the total integration yields nearly the same number of income tax returns listed in separate IRS data).

The average wage per employee for 'very small' and 'small' businesses (those with 1-20 and 20-99 employees, respectively) works out to around $40,000; 16 weeks of paid leave works out to around $12,500 per employee.

3.8 million babies were born in the US last year. 96.9 percent of families have at least one employed parent and 61.9 percent have both parents employed, so roughly 6,030,000 individuals would be eligible for maternity or paternity pay. (aside: if we take 6,030,000*12,500, we get 75.375 billion dollars, corroborating Devout Centrist's sources )

If we assume these births are distributed evenly across employees of all businesses, we have 6,030,000*0.46=2,773,800 employees of small businesses eligible for leave. 2,773,800*12,500*0.75 =  a total cost of 26.00 billion dollars.

[Mr. Reactionary]

I, Mr. Reactionary, by the authority vested in me by the Laws of the Republic of Atlasia as Game Moderator, first officer of the game engine thereof, hereby nominate and submit the candidacy of JK2020 for Deputy Game Moderator to assist Scott with stories.

- R

[Sestak]

I, Mr. Reactionary, by the authority vested in me by the Laws of the Republic of Atlasia as Game Moderator, first officer of the game engine thereof, hereby nominate and submit the candidacy of JK2020 for Deputy Game Moderator to assist Scott with stories.

- R

Thank you for the appointment.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Fremont Regionalization Initiative

There have been a few conversations on FremontCord recently about the process of absorbing essential state services (as outlined in 'Resolution recognizing autonomy of the states', and the effect that this would have on the budget. Meanwhile, the South and Lincoln have assumed state services by using 'baselines' derived by summing the state spending numbers from their member states. As discussed in my earlier post 'A Few Words on the Southern Budget,' these state spending baselines were taken from a particular source, usgvoernmentspending.com. Since no one involved in the budget process in the past few years had bothered to recalculate the baselines (and most people were entirely unaware that this site provided the basis for their numbers), the figures have diverged somewhat from RL in a number of areas in both the South and Lincoln (although Lincoln never passed an actual budget for either FY2017 or FY2018). A brief look through pre-reset records reveals that the practice of using this site, and only summing the numbers in the 'state' column, rather than the 'local' or 'total' column, was first started during Badger's stint as GM, when he introduced this method to the regions.

The South has been giving Fremont some grief over the past few months about not regionalizing essential services (including education), which was why 'Resolution recognizing autonomy of the states' was passed. However, during a discussion with Sestak, Truman, Scott and others on FremontCord, we discovered that the numbers given on usgovernmentspending are direct spending numbers and do not account for intergovernmental spending. As a result, these regions are actually not funding K-12 education to the same extent that the RL states are, since K-12 education is entirely included in the 'local' category on the USGS site, and the 'local' category is not taken into consideration when determining budget baselines. IRL, it is true that almost all direct K-12 spending is performed at the local level, but it is also true that a large portion of the funding comes from the states, something that isn't reflected in the USGS site.

This discovery prompted me to comb through the USGS site and determine exactly which areas of funding are listed as 'state' services and which ones are listed as 'local' to fully examine the extent to which the regions are or are not funding 'essential services.' Since Fremont is currently active in attempting to determine how best to regionalize services without creating an uneven tax burden, I started with the states in that region. Here are the results. (note: I will go into more detail about what each of these categories means in another post)

(EDIT: Also here is the more detailed state-by-state spreadsheet. I'll do the South next, since YT has that audit thing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iW2RSWSnhBMaTFZPD-MHy8dRtAHrxfFEwwdghnN79r4/edit?usp=sharing)

Note: All amounts are in millions of dollars			Total			Percent State/Local
Category	Subcategory	Detail	State	Local	Total	State	Local
Pensions	Sickness and Disability	Workers Compensation	7521.2	0	7521.2	100.00	0.00
	Old age	Employee Retirement	82129.1	16761.6	98890.9	83.05	16.95
	SUM		89649.9	16761.6	106411.5	84.25	15.75
Healthcare	Medical service (Seniors)		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Medical service	Federal Intergov't - Health and Hospitals	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Health	6743.2	19288.3	26031.4	25.90	74.10
		Hospitals	31348.7	38221	69570	45.06	54.94
	Public Health services	Current Ops - Environmental Health	1583.4	0	1583.4	100.00	0.00
	R and D Health		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Health n.e.c		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Vendor Payments (Medical)	Federal Intergovernmental - Vendor Payments for Medical Care	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Vendor Payments for Medical Care	177594.5	2375.6	179969.9	98.68	1.32
	SUM		217269.6	59884.9	277154.6	78.39	21.61
Education	Pre-primary - Secondary	Elementary+Secondary	2551	143012.5	145563.6	1.75	98.25
	Tertiary	Higher Education	82601.8	17635.3	100237	82.41	17.59
	Not definable by level	Federal Intergov't - Education	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Education - Other	16897	0	16897	100.00	0.00
		Libraries	139.6	3785.4	3925.1	3.56	96.44
	Subsidiary services		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	R and D Education		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Education n.e.c		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	SUM		102189.5	164443	266622.7	38.33	61.68
Defense	Veterans	Veterans Services	108.7	0	108.7	100.00	0.00
Welfare	Family and children	Federal Intergov't - Public Welfare	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Cash assistance payments	661.7	7021.2	7682.6	8.61	91.39
		Welfare other cash assistance	1891.2	0	1891.2	100.00	0.00
		current ops - Public welfare, vendor payments for other purposes	2118.1	0	2118.1	100.00	0.00
		Other Welfare	16938.7	10925.7	27864.7	60.79	39.21
	Unemployment	Federal Intergov't - Employment security admin	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Unemployment Comp	10491.6	0	10491.6	100.00	0.00
		Unemployment Comp - Special	0.3	0	0.3	100.00	0.00
		Employment Securiy Admin	1200.4	0	1200.4	100.00	0.00
		Other Insurance trust benefits	6575.1	0	6575.1	100.00	0.00
		Other Insurance trust payments	151.4	0	151.4	100.00	0.00
	Unemployment Trust		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Housing	Federal Intergov't - Housing and Community Development	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Housing and Community Development	1611.3	15523.8	17135.3	9.40	90.60
	Social Exclusion n.e.c		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	R and D social protection		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Social Protection n.e.c		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	SUM		41639.6	33470.8	75110.5	55.44	44.56
Protection	Police services	Federal intergov't - police and safety	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Police Protection	4313.1	30694.4	35007.4	12.32	87.68
	Fire Protection services	Fire Protection	0	15487.4	15487.4	0.00	100.00
	Prisons	Corrections	15243.1	9375.7	24618.6	61.92	38.08
	R and D Public order		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Public order and safety n.e.c	Federal Intergov't - Protective and Inspection	84.8	45.5	130.3	65.08	34.92
		Protective Inspection and Regulation	3845.6	2335	6180.3	62.22	37.78
	SUM		23486.6	57937.9	81424.3	28.84	71.16
Transportation	Transport	Federal intergov't - Air Transportation	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Federal Intergov't - Highways	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Air Transportation (airports)	1070.6	7626.3	8696.9	12.31	87.69
		Highways	25751.3	23900.2	49651.3	51.86	48.14
		Sea and inland port facilities	78	2249	2327	3.35	96.65
	Transit	Federal Intergov't - Transit Utilities	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Transit	2634.6	25386.9	28021.2	9.40	90.60
	SUM		29534.3	59108.5	88643.1	33.32	66.68
General Gov't	Executive and legislative organs, finance	Financial Administration	8138.1	5535	13673.3	59.52	40.48
		State legislative services	950.8	0	950.8	100.00	0.00
		Other gov't admin	1151.3	7866.4	9017.6	12.77	87.23
		general public buildings	1325.7	2773.6	4099.2	32.34	67.66
	Law Courts	Judicial and Legal	9557.4	10311.7	19868.9	48.10	51.90
	General services	Federal intergov't	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	SUM		21123.1	26486.8	47610	44.37	55.63
Other Spending	Basic research		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	General economic, commercial and labour		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting	Federal Intergov't - Natural Resources, Agriculture	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Federal Intergov't - Natural Resources	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Natural Resources	9580.4	3914.1	13494.4	71.00	29.01
	Fuel and Energy	Federal Intergov't - Electric Utilities	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Federal Intergov't - Gas Utilities	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
		Electric power	767.8	32396.9	33164.8	2.32	97.68
		Gas Supply	36.7	952.5	989.1	3.71	96.30
	Mining, Manufacturing and construction		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Communication		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Other industries	Liquor store expenditure	1294.8	301.8	1596.6	81.10	18.90
	R and D Economic Affairs		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Economic Affairs n.e.c	Miscellaneous commercial activities	522.5	6171.6	6693.9	7.81	92.20
	Waste management	Solid waste management	416.3	5775.5	6191.8	6.72	93.28
	Waste water management	Sewerage	584.2	16282.4	16866.7	3.46	96.54
	Pollution abatement	Federal intergov't - Sewerage	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Protection of biodiversity and landscape		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	R and D ennvironmental protection		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Environmental protection n.e.c.		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Housing development		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Community Development	Parking Facilities	6.8	799.5	806.4	0.84	99.14
	Water supply		196.8	28074.3	28271.2	0.70	99.30
	Street lighting		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	R and D Housing and community amenities		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Housing and community amenities n.e.c.		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Recreational and sporting services	Parks and rec	1621.5	13896.2	15517.7	10.45	89.55
	Cultural services		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Broadcasting and publishing services		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Religious and other community services		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	R and D Recreation, culture and religion		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	Recreation, cultlure and religion n.e.c.		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	R and D general public services		0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	General public services	Other gov't admin	9792.6	19455.9	29248.6	33.48	66.52
	Transfers of a general character	Federal intergov't	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
	SUM		24820.6	128020.5	152840.9	16.24	83.76
TOTALS			549821.9	546114	1095926.3	50.17	49.83

[Mr. Reactionary]

As Scott agreed to swap with Sestak once Sestak was confirmed:

I, Mr. Reactionary, by the authority vested in me by the Laws of the Republic of Atlasia as Game Moderator, first officer of the game engine thereof, hereby relieve and dismiss Scott from his position of Deputy Game Moderator and thank him for his service and assistance to the game engine.

- R