The 2022 map is worse for Republicans than 2018 was for Democrats

[Pollster]

Republicans will go into 2022 defending Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and to a lesser extent Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and Alaska.

They have virtually zero pickup opportunities.

If Trump is re-elected, losses for the GOP could be huge. If his re-election is particularly narrow as Democrats make modest gains in the Senate, 60 Dem Senate seats could even be possible.

If a Democrat is elected, we could see a reverse-2018 where Republicans make massive gains in the House but find themselves in a deeper hole in the Senate.

[Free Bird]

Which is why I'm kinda chill with Trump losing

[Xing]

I wouldn't quite say that it's worse, since they probably would only lose 1-2 seats (if that) if Trump loses re-election, since they aren't playing defense in any dark blue states, just swing states. If Trump wins re-election, however, their luck will likely run out with these seats, and they'll probably be looking at some pretty bad losses. It's going to be a bad map for them, but it'll be easier for them to defend all or nearly all of their seats in a good year than it was for Democrats this year.

[lfromnj]

Trump won all of these states lol. Dems had 10 seats up this year in trump states

[Pollster]

Trump won all of these states lol. Dems had 10 seats up this year in trump states

Hence why the GOP held the Senate with this map with Trump on the ballot.

In 2022, a decent chance 5-6 of these states will have voted for the Dem in 2020.

[lfromnj]

Trump won all of these states lol. Dems had 10 seats up this year in trump states

Hence why the GOP held the Senate with this map with Trump on the ballot.

In 2022, a decent chance 5-6 of these states will have voted for the Dem in 2020.

Even if they vote for the dem it won't be by double digits

[Roll Roons]

I don't think the 2022 map is quite as bad for Republicans as the 2018 one was for Dems. AK and MO will not go D, even if Trump wins in 2020.

PA, WI, NC, IA and GA are probably the most vulnerable R-held seats, especially with Johnson, Burr and likely Grassley and Isakson retiring, but even those states are not as blue as ND, IN, MO, WV and MT are red. As for pickups, there's always the possibilities of NH and maybe NV, CO and IL under a perfect storm, and of course AZ if it goes D in the 2020 special.

[Zaybay]

2022 may be the year of a reverse 2018. Rs make major gains in the house, possibly flipping it, while Ds hold/take the senate by gaining more seats. This could happen, especially with Pat Toomey, Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley retiring, and the inelastic GA's trend to the Left. This is just speculation, however, for all we know, 2022 sees the Rs gain IL back

[UWS]

I wouldn't quite say that it's worse, since they probably would only lose 1-2 seats (if that) if Trump loses re-election, since they aren't playing defense in any dark blue states, just swing states. If Trump wins re-election, however, their luck will likely run out with these seats, and they'll probably be looking at some pretty bad losses. It's going to be a bad map for them, but it'll be easier for them to defend all or nearly all of their seats in a good year than it was for Democrats this year.

I actually believe that 2018 Democrats are worse off than 2022 Republicans since the Democrats had to defend 24 seats over the Republicans’ 9 while in 2022 the Republicans will have to defend 21 seats and the Democrats 12. The moreover that the Republicans could take seats like Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t think the map is nearly as bad for them as the 2018 map was for Dems. All of their R-held seats are in states that voted for Trump and have a Republican PVI. Of course if there’s a recession or a war, things could get really ugly for the GOP, but Democrats aren’t going to win 60 Senate seats even if Trump wins reelection in 2020 (in which case the Senate would probably be 51R/49D or something like that in 2022, meaning the Democrats would have to pick up 11 seats (!) for a supermajority, which just isn’t going to happen). If a Democrat is president in 2022, I could still see them flipping PA, GA, and maybe NC, but that’s about it (I’m assuming AZ flips in 2020). They’re not winning states like IA, MO, or OH in a Biden/Warren/whoever midterm.

[IceSpear]

Yes, it is a horrible map for Republicans. But no, it is not as bad as 2018 was for Democrats. Not even close. Missouri, Alaska, and Ohio are not realistic targets, lol. And neither is Iowa if Grassley runs again.

And if Trump loses re-election, Dems would be lucky to break even, much less gain seats.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Trump wins, they are in for a STOMPING

Let's say
R's gain AL, MI
(Byrne)(Walberg)
D's gain CO
(R+1)- 54-46
2022
Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, NC, and AZ(if it hasn't already flip) will likely GO
(Mucarsel-Powell, Lamb, Bishop, Jackson, Gallego)
54-5=48
51-49 D
Add WI(Tidal Wave) and it's 52-48 D

(Pocan)
Tsunami
IA(OPEN)
KS(Moran)
(Axne, Davids)
If D win/wave 2020
-AL
(Byrne)
+CO, ME, AZ(Tier 1-Blue Wave)NC, GA, TX(Tier 2-Tidal Wave) KS, MT, SC(Tier 3-Tsunami)(Duran, Golden, Gallego, Olson, Jackson, Tomlinson, Svaty, Bullock, Bamberg)*
(
2022
R's gain
R Wave
NH
(Sununu)
No change
R Tidal Wave
AZ
(McSally)
+1
R Tsunami
NV
(Cegavske)
+3
D's gain
GA(Bishop)(Only in Red Wave and Tidal wave, not in GOP Tsunami)

[The Mikado]

Re: Virtually no pickup opportunities, no matter who's president, I think NH is still a swing seat depending on the candidates.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Yes, it is a horrible map for Republicans. But no, it is not as bad as 2018 was for Democrats. Not even close. Missouri, Alaska, and Ohio are not realistic targets, lol. And neither is Iowa if Grassley runs again.

And if Trump loses re-election, Dems would be lucky to break even, much less gain seats.

I agree that the map isn't as bad as 2018 was for Democrats, but I'm not sure that Democrats would be "lucky" to break even. Pollster is correct in that Republicans have few offensive opportunities even in a Democratic midterm, the pickings are slim outside of New Hampshire, possibly Nevada, and Arizona if the Democrats win it in 2020. Meanwhile, we already know that Rojo and Burr are retiring, so NC and WI will be open seats. Toomey could be defeated even in a Democratic midterm if the Philly burbstomping becomes a permanent feature of the PA electorate.

From this far out, the math on breaking even looks fairly doable.

[Young Conservative]

Republicans will go into 2022 defending Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and to a lesser extent Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and Alaska.

They have virtually zero pickup opportunities.

Bolded are the only three with any chance of flipping. Rubio starts as Likely R...the Democrats in Florida seem to be awfully inept and Miami loves him. Georgia is NOT a Swing state.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Republicans will go into 2022 defending Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and to a lesser extent Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and Alaska.

They have virtually zero pickup opportunities.

Bolded are the only three with any chance of flipping in a Democratic midterm. Rubio starts as Likely R...the Democrats in Florida seem to be awfully inept and Miami loves him. Georgia is NOT a Swing state.

Fixed

[Thatkat04]

Republicans will go into 2022 defending Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and to a lesser extent Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and Alaska.

They have virtually zero pickup opportunities.

Bolded are the only three with any chance of flipping. Rubio starts as Likely R...the Democrats in Florida seem to be awfully inept and Miami loves him. Georgia is NOT a Swing state.

Its heading there quickly. At the rate is going, its not hard to imagine a competitive senate race in 2022.

[ON Progressive]

Republicans will go into 2022 defending Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and to a lesser extent Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and Alaska.

They have virtually zero pickup opportunities.

Bolded are the only three with any chance of flipping. Rubio starts as Likely R...the Democrats in Florida seem to be awfully inept and Miami loves him. Georgia is NOT a Swing state.

Its heading there quickly. At the rate is going, its not hard to imagine a competitive senate race in 2022.

2022? It has a serious chance of being competitive in 2020 for both President and Senate.

[lfromnj]

Ga flips if it's a trump midterm

[Young Conservative]

Republicans will go into 2022 defending Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and to a lesser extent Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and Alaska.

They have virtually zero pickup opportunities.

Bolded are the only three with any chance of flipping. Rubio starts as Likely R...the Democrats in Florida seem to be awfully inept and Miami loves him. Georgia is NOT a Swing state.

Its heading there quickly. At the rate is going, its not hard to imagine a competitive senate race in 2022.

2022? It has a serious chance of being competitive in 2020 for both President and Senate.

s
But why?? Expanding the map in 2016 led Clinton to ignore key states. It doesn't matter if you win 270 votes or 400 YOU'RE THE PRESIDENT EITHER WAY.

[cvparty]

it most definitely is not worse, dems had to defend missouri (R+9), indiana (R+9), west virginia (R+19), north dakota (R+17), montana (R+11), and florida (R+2). in 2022, pubs have a grand total of zero states with a democratic pvi to defend


(well, assuming a democrat is the president)

[ON Progressive]

Republicans will go into 2022 defending Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and to a lesser extent Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and Alaska.

They have virtually zero pickup opportunities.

Bolded are the only three with any chance of flipping. Rubio starts as Likely R...the Democrats in Florida seem to be awfully inept and Miami loves him. Georgia is NOT a Swing state.

Its heading there quickly. At the rate is going, its not hard to imagine a competitive senate race in 2022.

2022? It has a serious chance of being competitive in 2020 for both President and Senate.

s
But why?? Expanding the map in 2016 led Clinton to ignore key states. It doesn't matter if you win 270 votes or 400 YOU'RE THE PRESIDENT EITHER WAY.

GA was actually fairly competitive (Trump +5) in 2016 with next-to-zero investment by the Clinton campaign. It's not ridiculous at all to put resources into the state, especially with Abrams doing even better than Hillary did in the suburbs.

Dems shouldn't be focusing solely on PA/MI/WI/AZ, especially because that's a path that leads you with little margin for error. Putting resources into states like GA can pay dividends, especially because GA flipping could easily put it on the path of VA/CO with how inelastic it is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It all depends on 2020, Dems must win IA, CO, ME and MT while losing AL and hold the House. Then, if Tim Ryan doesnt run for Veep he can run for Senate. Dems need to flip Senate in order to have a very good 2022.

[Pericles]

Republicans could pick up New Hampshire, and would have outside shots at Nevada and Colorado in a red wave environment.

[Nyvin]

Republicans could pick up New Hampshire, and would have outside shots at Nevada and Colorado in a red wave environment.

I think a lot of those western states are trending left at 100mph, particularly Colorado.    The current Republican party just doesn't fit in there anymore.