By how much do Democrats need to win the PV in order to win?

[TDAS04]

2% popular vote win wasn’t enough in 2016, and it probably won’t be enough in 2020 either.

[President Johnson]

2.5% or 3%. Or at least by 3-4 million votes.

[McGarnagle]

2.5% should do it in most circumstances, but if in two years we have won only by the skin of our teeth we shouldn't pat ourselves on the back.

Of course we want a solid win greater than 5%, and that could happen but is by no means guaranteed

[MT Treasurer]

I’m gonna be #bold and say 3.5% or maybe even 4% given the strong D trends in CA, TX, VA, CO, NM, HI, OR, WA, NY, CT, GA, NJ, MD, MA, etc.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably 3.5% or so.  Trump is probably only going to win Texas by 4-5% and lose California by a bit more than last time, and both with significantly higher turnout than 2016.

[Skye]

It's rather hard to tell. You are conveniently forgetting that Trump won the states that gave him the EC victory by less than 100K votes. There's also the fact that those 3rd party candidates took votes from Hillary and Trump.

I guess Trump continues to have his EC advantage relative to the popular vote. Maybe the Dem nominee needs to get a 2.5% margin.

[Skill and Chance]

This should start getting better for Democrats quickly in 2024 once some of the Sunbelt states cross over the EVEN PVI line, but it will get worse for them for at least one more cycle.

[Mr. Smith]

Probably 3%.

[here2view]

3%

Clinton won it by 2.1%, Obama in 2012 by 3.9%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

51/49%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

51/49%

[IceSpear]

It's sad this is even a question, but considering the trends, probably at least 3 points.

[TML]

Let me remind everyone that 538's final forecast (on the morning of Election Day) indicated that Trump had a 25% chance of winning the EC while losing the PV by about 2%. That probability increased to 60% in the event of a 1% PV loss, but decreased to 5% in the event of a 3% PV loss.

If we were to go by percentage margins alone, it seems that 2.5% would probably be the minimum percentage which would give the Democrats a greater than 5-in-6 chance of winning the EC.

[pbrower2a]

3% because the Democratic nominee will run up the electoral totals in New York, California, Maryland, and Massachusetts. In the Presidential election, 70% of the popular vote means just the same as 51% in California and its 55 electoral votes. The Democrat gets 65% of the vote in those four states before winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

[Xing]

A little shy of 3% should probably be enough, unfair as it might be.

[Peanut]

It's sad this is even a question, but considering the trends, probably at least 3 points.