BREAKING LA-GOV 2019: Ralph Abraham IN

[2016]

https://apnews.com/5c7974f596d34e81a43c3d72e30a770a

[smoltchanov]

Expected. Serious opponent because state is so red, that most Republican opponents become "serious", but - only because of that.

[Free Bird]

Tilt D, but he could make it a tossup

[pppolitics]

Who?

[Lechasseur]

Not surprised. Somebody had to run for the GOP.

[lfromnj]

Alabama_Indy who is your endorsement for LA gov?

[pops]

Lean R -> Tilt R

[AudmanOut]

How does he make this a lean/like R race? I doubt most people outside of Louisiana political junkies and the people in his congressional district?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Alabama_Indy who is your endorsement for LA gov?

Unless something drastic changes, JBE.

[MT Treasurer]

How does he make this a lean/like R race? I doubt most people outside of Louisiana political junkies and the people in his congressional district?

Polarization. Literally anyone with an (R) next to their name could win this race, no matter what. Also, red states don’t vote for Democrats anymore and Trump will campaign for Edwards' opponent.

[AudmanOut]

How does he make this a lean/like R race? I doubt most people outside of Louisiana political junkies and the people in his congressional district?

Polarization. Literally anyone with an (R) next to their name could win this race, no matter what. Also, red states don’t vote for Democrats anymore and Trump will campaign for Edwards' opponent.

JBE is pretty popular though he’s the governor version (well current governor) version of manchin.

[IceSpear]

Prediction for the trajectory of this race: JBE will have huge leads in the early polls, leading Atlas to pronounce the race safe D. Then Abraham will close the gap after raising his name recognition and Trump doing rallies for him. Half of Atlas will panic, the other half will pretend nothing is happening and that the race is still safe D. The end result will be within 5 points either way.

Basically WV-Sen 2018 redux.

[smoltchanov]

Prediction for the trajectory of this race: JBE will have huge leads in the early polls, leading Atlas to pronounce the race safe D. Then Abraham will close the gap after raising his name recognition and Trump doing rallies for him. Half of Atlas will panic, the other half will pretend nothing is happening and that the race is still safe D. The end result will be within 5 points either way.

Basically WV-Sen 2018 redux.

Agree 101%

[Don Vito Corleone]

Prediction for the trajectory of this race: JBE will have huge leads in the early polls, leading Atlas to pronounce the race safe D. Then Abraham will close the gap after raising his name recognition and Trump doing rallies for him. Half of Atlas will panic, the other half will pretend nothing is happening and that the race is still safe D. The end result will be within 5 points either way.

Basically WV-Sen 2018 redux.

To be fair to Atlas, the lack of polling in WV-SEN 2018 means they basically had to go with their gut.

[lfromnj]

Prediction for the trajectory of this race: JBE will have huge leads in the early polls, leading Atlas to pronounce the race safe D. Then Abraham will close the gap after raising his name recognition and Trump doing rallies for him. Half of Atlas will panic, the other half will pretend nothing is happening and that the race is still safe D. The end result will be within 5 points either way.

Basically WV-Sen 2018 redux.

To be fair to Atlas, the lack of polling in WV-SEN 2018 means they basically had to go with their gut.

Also the one high quality pollster Monmouth got wv03 manchin margin off by 15 points. Even I thought he would win wv 03 by atleast 10

[Young Conservative]

Edwards is nowhere near as entrenched as Manchin.

[IceSpear]

Edwards is nowhere near as entrenched as Manchin.

True, but Louisiana is nowhere near as Republican as West Virginia.

[Intell]

Edwards is nowhere near as entrenched as Manchin.

True, but Louisiana is nowhere near as Republican as West Virginia.

Whites in LA are more polarised and much more republican.

[IceSpear]

Edwards is nowhere near as entrenched as Manchin.

True, but Louisiana is nowhere near as Republican as West Virginia.

Whites in LA are more polarised and much more republican.

I'm aware. But Dems have a much higher floor due to the black vote.

[ElectionsGuy]

He's pretty generic R, right? I think Edwards can handle him. Although it's hard to see how any Republican does worse than Vitter...

[Lognog]

Expected. Serious opponent because state is so red, that most Republican opponents become "serious", but - only because of that.

Perfectly describes the 2018 Republican Senate line-up of Kevin Cramer, Mike Braun, Matt Rosendale, and even Patrick Morrisey

[Pandaguineapig]

Expected. Serious opponent because state is so red, that most Republican opponents become "serious", but - only because of that.

Perfectly describes the 2018 Republican Senate line-up of Kevin Cramer, Mike Braun, Matt Rosendale, and even Patrick Morrisey

In all fairness Cramer was the Republican's top recruit for ND-Sen, point taken on the other candidates though

[Lognog]

Expected. Serious opponent because state is so red, that most Republican opponents become "serious", but - only because of that.

Perfectly describes the 2018 Republican Senate line-up of Kevin Cramer, Mike Braun, Matt Rosendale, and even Patrick Morrisey

In all fairness Cramer was the Republican's top recruit for ND-Sen, point taken on the other candidates though

that's true but Cramer was a gaff machine on the campaign trail and a lousy fund raiser. There was even a point where he got mad a Trump for being too friendly with Heidkamp.

[Pandaguineapig]

Expected. Serious opponent because state is so red, that most Republican opponents become "serious", but - only because of that.

Perfectly describes the 2018 Republican Senate line-up of Kevin Cramer, Mike Braun, Matt Rosendale, and even Patrick Morrisey

In all fairness Cramer was the Republican's top recruit for ND-Sen, point taken on the other candidates though

that's true but Cramer was a gaff machine on the campaign trail and a lousy fund raiser. There was even a point where he got mad a Trump for being too friendly with Heidkamp.

Yes, but unlike Berg and other potential Republican recruits he made few mistakes and let Heitkamp destroy herself down the stretch

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Bel Edwards will win. By how much I don't know..... But he will win