Sabato's Crystal Ball 2019-2020 Gubernatorial ratings.

[PragmaticPopulist]

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/governors-2019-2020-democrats-try-to-hold-the-line-in-red-state-battles/



Mostly agree with these actually, although I think Louisiana should start as a tossup and Montana should start as leans R, due to polarization.

[lfromnj]

Governor races may now be polarized to get in like Oklahoma but opposition party governor's who compromise remain very popular. Louisiana is likely d but kentucky is safe r

[Skunk]

I'd move WA to Safe D, MO and WV to Safe R, MT to Lean R, and MS to Tossup.

[Zaybay]

Not bad to start off with, not bad at all. I dont really see anything to disagree with(the same cannot be said for Cook).

[Person Man]

If Polarization is really that bad, Vermont and New Hampshire should be moved. By how much? I don't know..

[PragmaticPopulist]

If Polarization is really that bad, Vermont and New Hampshire should be moved. By how much? I don't know..

Vermont and New Hampshire have a long history of electing R governors, despite their leanings, as does most of New England. This trend has persisted even in the age of polarization.

The south however, is a different story. Edwards won in 2015 arguably because Vitter had a lot of personal baggage, leading a lot of Republicans to cross over to support Edwards, who ran as an old-style moderate Lousiana Democrat.

[Zaybay]

If Polarization is really that bad, Vermont and New Hampshire should be moved. By how much? I don't know..

Vermont and New Hampshire have a long history of electing R governors, despite their leanings, as does most of New England. This trend has persisted even in the age of polarization.

The south however, is a different story. Edwards won in 2015 arguably because Vitter had a lot of personal baggage, leading a lot of Republicans to cross over to support Edwards, who ran as an old-style moderate Lousiana Democrat.

Wouldnt that mean MT would also stay a tossup, as it has a long history of electing D governors, despite their leanings, and that this trend has persisted after polarization in the forms of Tester, and the PV in the state?

It cant only go one way.

[lfromnj]

Also WV is Safe R
. I guess Missouri can be given the benefit of the doubt a bit if the R governor screws it up badly. Indiana looks Safe as holcomb is a moderate hero.

[PragmaticPopulist]

If Polarization is really that bad, Vermont and New Hampshire should be moved. By how much? I don't know..

Vermont and New Hampshire have a long history of electing R governors, despite their leanings, as does most of New England. This trend has persisted even in the age of polarization.

The south however, is a different story. Edwards won in 2015 arguably because Vitter had a lot of personal baggage, leading a lot of Republicans to cross over to support Edwards, who ran as an old-style moderate Lousiana Democrat.

Wouldnt that mean MT would also stay a tossup, as it has a long history of electing D governors, despite their leanings, and that this trend has persisted after polarization in the forms of Tester, and the PV in the state?

It cant only go one way.

The difference with Montana is that it's an open seat. There's no incumbent like in Louisiana, who has a built-in advantage.

[Skye]

Pretty good map.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I'd move IN to likely R (especially if Buttigieg runs), WA to Safe D, and KY to tossup, but overall this is well done.

[pppolitics]

Don't most incumbent governors gets reelected unless there're some horrible screwups?

[lfromnj]

I'd move IN to likely R (especially if Buttigieg runs), WA to Safe D, and KY to tossup, but overall this is well done.

Holcomb won't lose with hsi current trajectory
He is a moderate popular incumbent governor in a state favoring his party. All the fundamentals favor him besides maybe a primary from the right.

[UncleSam]

Agree except LA will be a tossup by the time next year rolls around, and will break R at the end - if 2018 taught us nothing else it is that polarization is taking hold in red states. For 2020 I don’t really know yet but IN Safe R seems too confident and NH will probably be a tossup come 2020.

[Roll Roons]

Agree except LA will be a tossup by the time next year rolls around, and will break R at the end - if 2018 taught us nothing else it is that polarization is taking hold in red states. For 2020 I don’t really know yet but IN Safe R seems too confident and NH will probably be a tossup come 2020.

Governor Kobach, Senator Rosendale and Senator Morrissey say hi.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Agree except LA will be a tossup by the time next year rolls around, and will break R at the end - if 2018 taught us nothing else it is that polarization is taking hold in red states. For 2020 I don’t really know yet but IN Safe R seems too confident and NH will probably be a tossup come 2020.

Governor Kobach, Senator Rosendale and Senator Morrissey say hi.

There’s exceptions to every rule. Candidate quality still counts too.

[Roll Roons]

Agree except LA will be a tossup by the time next year rolls around, and will break R at the end - if 2018 taught us nothing else it is that polarization is taking hold in red states. For 2020 I don’t really know yet but IN Safe R seems too confident and NH will probably be a tossup come 2020.

Governor Kobach, Senator Rosendale and Senator Morrissey say hi.

There’s exceptions to every rule. Candidate quality still counts too.

And there is no better candidate than a popular incumbent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D adv to inc party: DEL & NC
Tossup NH, LA, MS, KY & MT
Tilt R adv to inc party: IN, MO, WV, VT, ND & UT

[Xing]

Not a terrible map, but Kentucky and West Virginia should be Safe R, and Washington should probably be Safe D at this point.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Not a terrible map, but Kentucky and West Virginia should be Safe R, and Washington should probably be Safe D at this point.

It's worth noting that dems did quite well in the local level in WV even in 2018.

I don't think WV Gov is safe R, and this is coming from someone who thought Ojeda would get assblasted & Manchin would barely win (both of which happened).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY isnt safe R😀

[IceSpear]

Kentucky more likely to flip than Missouri? ayy lmao

Loony Larry strikes again!

I can already tell that KY-Gov is gonna be the 2019 race I'm gonna need to ready the egg launching apparatus for.

[Xing]

I can already tell that KY-Gov is gonna be the 2019 race I'm gonna need to ready the egg launching apparatus for.

And you'll get to do it for KY-SEN (as well as NV-PRES, of course) in 2020.

[lfromnj]

I can already tell that KY-Gov is gonna be the 2019 race I'm gonna need to ready the egg launching apparatus for.

And you'll get to do it for KY-SEN (as well as NV-PRES, of course) in 2020.

im gonna go bold and try doing it for Texas(not that I think the D will win Texas) but when the first polls come out they will probably show Trump up double digits in Texas and everyone will be LIKE SEE BETO was an abberation its clear the Texas burbs are coming home and then we get another close <5 point election.

[TheSaint250]

What I'd change:

IN: Safe R --> Likely R
KY: Lean R --> Tossup
MO: Likely R --> Lean R
WA: Likely D --> Safe D
WV: Likely R --> Lean R


I'm unsure about Mississippi. I want to move it to "Tossup," but the condition that Hood must win a majority of state House districts presents a big challenge.

Also, if they did "Leans," I'd put Louisiana as "Tilt D," but that is due to the possible effects of partisanship and the candidacy of Ralph Abraham. I'm not too familiar with Abraham or his approvals and statewide appeal, but a member of Congress not named David Vitter could make this interesting.