Harris vs McCready redo - who wins?

[Virginiá]

Also, this is under the assumption that a new election is held under NC law, which evidently says there is no primary and the same candidates that ran in the general election run again. This is different than the scenario where the House doesn't seat Harris, in which case there is a special election and it is probably unlikely Harris wins a primary again.

[NewYorkExpress]

Harris probably still wins, and then Democrats promptly refuse to seat him, as they well should, because who's to say he wouldn't steal this election too?

[Xing]

Probably depends on the conditions of the new election.

[Pericles]

McCready due to Democrats doing well in specials and plus Hartis would be weighed down by the taijt of this saga(even if no evidence implicates him directly)

[Orser67]

McCready due to Democrats doing well in specials and plus Hartis would be weighed down by the taijt of this saga(even if no evidence implicates him directly)

Pretty much this

[Gass3268]

Harris is probably going to jail.

[lfromnj]

Harris the base doesn't care about this and will scream california and this district is similar to Ohio 12th. It's a tossup though

[Zaybay]

Most likely McCready, due to D overpreformances in special elections, but it would still be pure tossup.

[OneJ]

McCready due to Democrats doing well in specials and plus Hartis would be weighed down by the taijt of this saga(even if no evidence implicates him directly)

Pretty much this

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1070707900576882688

Even head of NC GOP now open to redoing the race.

[Virginiá]

For the love of god, this was a thread about who would win in a hypothetical redo. It's not about what you think of the investigation or whether a redo is justified.

Any long-winded arguments in threads not appropriate for that will be indiscriminately killed with fire. And that applies doubly so for you, Bagel.

[lfromnj]

ok I was joking a bit but I think dan would win now. Its clear this district is REALLY similar Ohio 12th
Trump +11ish. It had little trends in 2012 to 2016 despite certain counties having massive trends. This was because the rurals went R hard but the burbs swung left just as hard. Also both were gerrymandered.

[The Mikado]

Anyway, directly on the topic at hand, Harris "won" by 0.3% pre-scandal. He has zero margin to lose support. Even if the scandal only chases away 2% of his voters, he's screwed.

Note that both Collins and Hunter were dramatically wounded by their scandals, though their districts ended up too R to actually fall. Collins only won a hyper-Republican seat (Romney won by 12 and Trump won by 24) by 1.1%, while Hunter only won a similarly extreme seat (Romney by 23 and Trump by 15) by 2.5%. The whole "scandal doesn't do anything anymore" is clearly false: scandal can make a candidate run like 8-10% worse than you'd expect even now, it's just that that wasn't enough for these districts.

NC-09 is a seat that Harris "won" by 0.3% pre-scandal. Saying "it won't hurt him much" is besides the point. He has literally no support he can afford to lose.

[lfromnj]

Anyway, directly on the topic at hand, Harris "won" by 0.3% pre-scandal. He has zero margin to lose support. Even if the scandal only chases away 2% of his voters, he's screwed.

Note that both Collins and Hunter were dramatically wounded by their scandals, though their districts ended up too R to actually fall. Collins only won a hyper-Republican seat (Romney won by 12 and Trump won by 24) by 1.1%, while Hunter only won a similarly extreme seat (Romney by 23 and Trump by 15) by 2.5%. The whole "scandal doesn't do anything anymore" is clearly false: scandal can make a candidate run like 8-10% worse than you'd expect even now, it's just that that wasn't enough for these districts.

NC-09 is a seat that Harris "won" by 0.3% pre-scandal. Saying "it won't hurt him much" is besides the point. He has literally no support he can afford to lose.

Imo silver really should take up word scandals into effect. Steve king definitely had a scandal effect nearly equal to hunter and collins.

[Politician]

Anyway, directly on the topic at hand, Harris "won" by 0.3% pre-scandal. He has zero margin to lose support. Even if the scandal only chases away 2% of his voters, he's screwed.

Note that both Collins and Hunter were dramatically wounded by their scandals, though their districts ended up too R to actually fall. Collins only won a hyper-Republican seat (Romney won by 12 and Trump won by 24) by 1.1%, while Hunter only won a similarly extreme seat (Romney by 23 and Trump by 15) by 2.5%. The whole "scandal doesn't do anything anymore" is clearly false: scandal can make a candidate run like 8-10% worse than you'd expect even now, it's just that that wasn't enough for these districts.

NC-09 is a seat that Harris "won" by 0.3% pre-scandal. Saying "it won't hurt him much" is besides the point. He has literally no support he can afford to lose.

Don't forget VA-2 where "rising star" Taylor lost by 1.8%; his petition scandal is the only explanation for his loss.

[lfromnj]

Anyway, directly on the topic at hand, Harris "won" by 0.3% pre-scandal. He has zero margin to lose support. Even if the scandal only chases away 2% of his voters, he's screwed.

Note that both Collins and Hunter were dramatically wounded by their scandals, though their districts ended up too R to actually fall. Collins only won a hyper-Republican seat (Romney won by 12 and Trump won by 24) by 1.1%, while Hunter only won a similarly extreme seat (Romney by 23 and Trump by 15) by 2.5%. The whole "scandal doesn't do anything anymore" is clearly false: scandal can make a candidate run like 8-10% worse than you'd expect even now, it's just that that wasn't enough for these districts.

NC-09 is a seat that Harris "won" by 0.3% pre-scandal. Saying "it won't hurt him much" is besides the point. He has literally no support he can afford to lose.

Don't forget VA-2 where "rising star" Taylor lost by 1.8%; his petition scandal is the only explanation for his loss.

BTW how long until Crenshaw is caught in a scandal. Both of the former rising stars fell. Eric greeters and Scott Taylor were two young handsome navy seals caught in scandals

[The Mikado]

McCready would have the edge, and I'd start it at Lean D.

Assuming the NYT's numbers on the initial race are accurate, Harris won by 1,860 votes, or 0.4%. He has zero wiggle room to lose support, and, in all likelihood, he would lose support, for two reasons:

1) The electorate in a special election. Since Trump has taken office, special elections have had a very Democratic electorate, and with the exception of a few elections in Georgia (thank God for my home state!) I'm pretty sure that every single major special election has had a more Democratic-favored voter base even than the main 2018 election did.

2) The scandal itself. Although the special election electorate alone could potentially be enough to sink Harris' chances, the fact that he is directly implicated in a criminal voter fraud investigation can't be ignored. And before anyone says "but Hunter!" or "but Collins!," McCready is a significantly stronger candidate than either Campa-Najjar or McMurray, not even taking into account the fact that both Hunter and Collins barely won in what should be Titanium R districts. NC-09 is less Republican than both CA-50 and NY-27, and again, Harris has no room for error.

The results are actually closer than that.

US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 09 (VOTE FOR 1)
Precincts Reported: 210 of 210   
View Contest Details
NAME ON BALLOT   PARTY   BALLOT COUNT   PERCENT
Mark Harris   REP   139,246   49.25%
Dan McCready   DEM   138,341   48.93%
Jeff Scott   LIB   5,130   1.81%

[lfromnj]

McCready would have the edge, and I'd start it at Lean D.

Assuming the NYT's numbers on the initial race are accurate, Harris won by 1,860 votes, or 0.4%. He has zero wiggle room to lose support, and, in all likelihood, he would lose support, for two reasons:

1) The electorate in a special election. Since Trump has taken office, special elections have had a very Democratic electorate, and with the exception of a few elections in Georgia (thank God for my home state!) I'm pretty sure that every single major special election has had a more Democratic-favored voter base even than the main 2018 election did.

2) The scandal itself. Although the special election electorate alone could potentially be enough to sink Harris' chances, the fact that he is directly implicated in a criminal voter fraud investigation can't be ignored. And before anyone says "but Hunter!" or "but Collins!," McCready is a significantly stronger candidate than either Campa-Najjar or McMurray, not even taking into account the fact that both Hunter and Collins barely won in what should be Titanium R districts. NC-09 is less Republican than both CA-50 and NY-27, and again, Harris has no room for error.

The results are actually closer than that.

US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 09 (VOTE FOR 1)
Precincts Reported: 210 of 210   
View Contest Details
NAME ON BALLOT   PARTY   BALLOT COUNT   PERCENT
Mark Harris   REP   139,246   49.25%
Dan McCready   DEM   138,341   48.93%
Jeff Scott   LIB   5,130   1.81%

Oh wow, I guess the NYT hasn't updated their results then. That gives Harris even less room for error - another Republican without his same taint could win, but I'm not sure how Harris could hold that margin in a special election environment.

Simple. The far left wing takes control and attempts to pass stupid laws angering moderates despite the fact they just elected rhem. Eg ny 26th special election which happened due to entitlement cuts

[Crumpets]

Harris easily if he's allowed to run. Passive GOP voters in NC-9 Who expected a red tsunami will turn out en masse to stop the dastardly Dems from "stealing" this seat. Dems meanwhile will be content knowing they already control the House and won't show up.

[TomC]

Have you all seen Harris’ tweets distancing himself from involvement in these shenanigans?

Me either.

[MAINEiac4434]

Have you all seen Harris’ tweets distancing himself from involvement in these shenanigans?

Me either.

His criminal defense attorneys are probably telling him not to say anything.

[TomC]

Have you all seen Harris’ tweets distancing himself from involvement in these shenanigans?

Me either.

His criminal defense attorneys are probably telling him not to say anything.

That’s smart legally, but hurts politically.

[Mr. Smith]

Harris.

[SCNCmod]

Given all of the negative publicity regarding someone working for the Republican... I would imagine McCready.

[AudmanOut]

McCready will win due to be being a special IMO

Given all of the negative publicity regarding someone working for the Republican... I would imagine McCready.

I don’t think people care anymore honestly.