MT-SEN 2020: Time for Bullock?

[aaroncd107]

Bullock would be a great candidate, and of course our best shot to win this race. He's a Scott or Hassan. I hope he hasn't gotten it in his head to run for President.

Unfortunately, it looks like he has.

I think he will probably run for President. But, assuming he doesn’t make it far, he could drop out of the Presidential race and then run for Senate. I think that will possibly (perhaps likely) happen. .

Dropping down to a Senate race from a failed Presidential run would doom his Senate candidacy before it began. Look what Presidential runs do to non-runner-up primary losers in their home states

Yeah, Rubio really got screwed over in 2016.

[Mr. Smith]

Bullock would be a great candidate, and of course our best shot to win this race. He's a Scott or Hassan. I hope he hasn't gotten it in his head to run for President.

Unfortunately, it looks like he has.

I think he will probably run for President. But, assuming he doesn’t make it far, he could drop out of the Presidential race and then run for Senate. I think that will possibly (perhaps likely) happen. .

Dropping down to a Senate race from a failed Presidential run would doom his Senate candidacy before it began. Look what Presidential runs do to non-runner-up primary losers in their home states

Yeah, Rubio really got screwed over in 2016.

He lucked out when Dems didn't nominate Grayson. Grayson had a lot more cajones than Privileged Pat.

[Doimper]

Bullock would be a great candidate, and of course our best shot to win this race. He's a Scott or Hassan. I hope he hasn't gotten it in his head to run for President.

Unfortunately, it looks like he has.

I think he will probably run for President. But, assuming he doesn’t make it far, he could drop out of the Presidential race and then run for Senate. I think that will possibly (perhaps likely) happen. .

Dropping down to a Senate race from a failed Presidential run would doom his Senate candidacy before it began. Look what Presidential runs do to non-runner-up primary losers in their home states

Yeah, Rubio really got screwed over in 2016.

He lucked out when Dems didn't nominate Grayson. Grayson had a lot more cajones than Privileged Pat.

Is that a roundabout way of saying he's a wifebeater?

[JMT]

Bullock would be a great candidate, and of course our best shot to win this race. He's a Scott or Hassan. I hope he hasn't gotten it in his head to run for President.

Unfortunately, it looks like he has.

I think he will probably run for President. But, assuming he doesn’t make it far, he could drop out of the Presidential race and then run for Senate. I think that will possibly (perhaps likely) happen. .

Dropping down to a Senate race from a failed Presidential run would doom his Senate candidacy before it began. Look what Presidential runs do to non-runner-up primary losers in their home states

Yeah, Rubio really got screwed over in 2016.

For every Rubio there’s three people who are damaged even more: Walker, Christie and Cruz

This isn't exactly a fair comparison. I'll give you Walker, because he did end up losing reelection. Perhaps Christie fits the bill too, but he couldn't run for reelection in 2017 anyways. But there are plenty of failed presidential candidates who go on to succeed in reelection, or at least stay politically relevant. From 2016 alone, Rand Paul turned around and successfully ran for reelection, just like Rubio did. Ted Cruz successfully ran for reelection in 2018 after a failed presidential run. Ben Carson became HUD Secretary, and Rick Perry became Energy Secretary, and both are still in the cabinet. Lindsey Graham is still in the Senate, and has become closer to the President. So, I'm not so sure a failed presidential run ruins your career.

As for Bullock, I think he has little to lose by running for president. He likely won't make it far, but in the event he does, he could become president. And if his run for president doesn't go so well, he could easily clear the Democratic field for Senate in Montana, and would be competitive in the General Election. I don't think a brief presidential run would doom his chances for a Senate bid, quite honestly.

[Lognog]

Bullock would be a great candidate, and of course our best shot to win this race. He's a Scott or Hassan. I hope he hasn't gotten it in his head to run for President.

Unfortunately, it looks like he has.

I think he will probably run for President. But, assuming he doesn’t make it far, he could drop out of the Presidential race and then run for Senate. I think that will possibly (perhaps likely) happen. .

Dropping down to a Senate race from a failed Presidential run would doom his Senate candidacy before it began. Look what Presidential runs do to non-runner-up primary losers in their home states

Yeah, Rubio really got screwed over in 2016.

For every Rubio there’s three people who are damaged even more: Walker, Christie and Cruz

This isn't exactly a fair comparison. I'll give you Walker, because he did end up losing reelection. Perhaps Christie fits the bill too, but he couldn't run for reelection in 2017 anyways. But there are plenty of failed presidential candidates who go on to succeed in reelection, or at least stay politically relevant. From 2016 alone, Rand Paul turned around and successfully ran for reelection, just like Rubio did. Ted Cruz successfully ran for reelection in 2018 after a failed presidential run. Ben Carson became HUD Secretary, and Rick Perry became Energy Secretary, and both are still in the cabinet. Lindsey Graham is still in the Senate, and has become closer to the President. So, I'm not so sure a failed presidential run ruins your career.

As for Bullock, I think he has little to lose by running for president. He likely won't make it far, but in the event he does, he could become president. And if his run for president doesn't go so well, he could easily clear the Democratic field for Senate in Montana, and would be competitive in the General Election. I don't think a brief presidential run would doom his chances for a Senate bid, quite honestly.

Although Cruz did win reelection it was not by a comfortable margin at all and yes while many failed candidates are put into high federal offices by appointment, his point was that it hurts them in their home state so it is irrelevant where they are nominated

[Jon Tester]

Tester has a few thoughts on Bullock not running for Senate in 2020.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/10/2020-elections-senate-presidential-1093341

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tester has a few thoughts on Bullock not running for Senate in 2020.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/10/2020-elections-senate-presidential-1093341

He might have fire in the belly, but if he thinks he's Presidential material, he also has sh*t for brains.

[lfromnj]

Tester has a few thoughts on Bullock not running for Senate in 2020.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/10/2020-elections-senate-presidential-1093341

He might have fire in the belly, but if he thinks he's Presidential material, he also has sh*t for brains.

Got to love those #populist quotes

[Flyersfan232]

It will be the least shocking news ever if the only lesson Republicans take away from Tester's victory is that any Republican candidate who doesn’t have a Baltimore accent and has "incumbency advantage" will automatically be heavily favored even against the most popular statewide elected official (Bullock is more popular than Tester), and they inevitably blow it again in 2020 even if Trump wins reelection. Yeah, we get it, Rosendale wasn’t a strong candidate, it’s true, but it’s silly and absolutely lazy to lay all the blame for Tester's victory on him. Even many Republicans have already admitted that the late and half-hearted NRSC involvement in Montana was the most decisive factor in his defeat, and the Democrats' ground operation (particularly on college campuses and reservations) shouldn’t be underestimated. There’s zero reason to believe that Democratic base voters aren’t going to turn out in 2020 or that they will be more supportive of Daines than Rosendale.

I maintain that this seat is more likely to flip than Iowa, even if Bullock declines to run for some reason (which would hardly make the race Safe R). Daines is absurdly overrated on this forum and among pundits in general and very beatable if Democrats play their cards right and/or 2020 is a favorable year for Democrats.

another reason republicans keep loosing are also Libertarians voting against there own interest.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think Bullock will run for Senate. I think he's going to waste all his political capital on a 15th-place finish in the Presidential primary.

[Yellowhammer]

Likely R

[BlueDogs2020]

I don't think Bullock will run for Senate. I think he's going to waste all his political capital on a 15th-place finish in the Presidential primary.

I don´t think he is going to run for President- remember Sen. Tester letting it slip that he would be running for Senate? Plus, I think it would be a Tossup/Tilt R kind of race and he would have a very good chance; his approvals are much better than Daines´ at the very least, and he wouldn´t get Bredesen´d because Montana is actually somewhat purple.

[President Johnson]

I don't think Bullock will run for Senate. I think he's going to waste all his political capital on a 15th-place finish in the Presidential primary.

I don´t think he is going to run for President- remember Sen. Tester letting it slip that he would be running for Senate? Plus, I think it would be a Tossup/Tilt R kind of race and he would have a very good chance; his approvals are much better than Daines´ at the very least, and he wouldn´t get Bredesen´d because Montana is actually somewhat purple.

I think he hasn't decided yet what to do. Just hope he runs for something because it would be wasted talent. He's only 54 years in 2020.

[Roll Roons]

I don't think Bullock will run for Senate. I think he's going to waste all his political capital on a 15th-place finish in the Presidential primary.

I don´t think he is going to run for President- remember Sen. Tester letting it slip that he would be running for Senate? Plus, I think it would be a Tossup/Tilt R kind of race and he would have a very good chance; his approvals are much better than Daines´ at the very least, and he wouldn´t get Bredesen´d because Montana is actually somewhat purple.

Not only that, but as we've seen in recent election cycles, sitting governors (Scott, Hassan, Manchin) have a much better track record when running for Senate compared to retreads (Bredesen, Bayh, Strickland, Kerrey, Thompson).

[henster]

He's going to completely embarrass himself on a quixotic run for Pres to the point where he won't be a viable Senate candidate anymore. Like Schultz/Delaney I just don't understand how these guys managed to be so successful yet not be able to see that their run for President will go nowhere.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Anyone else think former Russian Ambassador Michael McFaul would be a good candidate?

[lfromnj]

Anyone else think former Russian Ambassador Michael McFaul would be a good candidate?

lol

Anyway the only good candidate is Bullock. Cortez Masto should basically focus all her effort on recruitment for senate races on trying to recruit Bullock and then perhaps Beto.

Any other state

Georgia-I think Abrams isn't that great and basically a generic D but she isn't a bad recruit for fundraising ability but she already seems interested

Colorado- Gardner is basically doomed anyway.

NC- NC dems do have a lot of random benchers like Jeff Jackson who all seem interested

AZ- They could try for Mark Kelly but Gallego is a good enough candidate(Charismatic and a veteran)

Tx- Beto would actually make a diff due to his INSANE name rec advantage against lazy Cornyn

KY- Honestly the best thing Cortez Masto could do is to recruit an awful dem candidate. D's will be desperate to take out Cocaine Mitch despite it being Safe R so if she recruited a large socon and blocked everyone else it would atleast prevent any money given to him.

[Kevin]

Anyone else think former Russian Ambassador Michael McFaul would be a good candidate?

Uhmm does he even live in Montana?

[Jon Tester]

Looks like Wilmot Collins might run.  Very interesting candidate.

https://twitter.com/CollinsWilmot/status/1126595634750844928?s=09

[HarrisonL]

Unfortunately he's being big stupid and running for President instead of Senate.

[SnowLabrador]

Unfortunately he's being big stupid and running for President instead of Senate.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like Wilmot Collins might run.  Very interesting candidate.

https://twitter.com/CollinsWilmot/status/1126595634750844928?s=09

He’s really charismatic and has a compelling story to tell. He’d have zero issues exciting the Democratic base and I could see him force the NRSC to at least allocate additional resources to the race. While Bullock staying out of the race (for now) is undoubtedly good news for Republicans, people need to stop acting like Daines is running for reelection in Wyoming.

Speaking of Wyoming, there’s also this, FWIW:

'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor

Michael Punke, the author of the best-selling survivalist novel “The Revenant” and a former U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization in Geneva, is considering a Democratic run for Senate or governor in Montana, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Neither race has an announced Democratic candidate yet, though people are circling both campaigns, and Punke hopes to use his long career of experience in public policy and his public profile as a hit author to make himself an interesting and attractive candidate, according to one of the people familiar with his plans.

[...]

Punke was born and raised in Wyoming and went out East to attend George Washington University and then Cornell Law School. He also worked in international economic affairs in the Clinton White House and as a senior policy adviser in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

[ElectionsGuy]

Time to run for president.

[President Johnson]

Time to run for president.

I don't know what filling deadlines are in Montana. If Steve Bullock is out by the end of the year of the Iowa, he might just keep his campaign appartus up and jump into the senate race. If he doesn't, Brian Schweizer should run instead and Mike Cooney for governor.

[Sestak]

Time to run for president.

I don't know what filling deadlines are in Montana. If Steve Bullock is out by the end of the year of the Iowa, he might just keep his campaign appartus up and jump into the senate race. If he doesn't, Brian Schweizer should run instead

Have we not learned the lesson here enough times already?!