TN-SEN: Why did Davidson county swing so hard.

[Grassroots]

I mean seriously holy cow...

[tmthforu94]

Haslam won by an absurd margin so the state was going to swing automatically. Karl Dean was the mayor of Nashville until recently so that was his base of support.

[Frenchrepublican]

Davidson county is one of the most favorable county in the state for Dems, you have an important black electorate combined with an important white college educated one. When you compare thinks with 2014 it’s easy to understand the big swing toward Phil Bredesen/Dean as black voters turned out at a far higher rate in 2018 than in 2014, at the same time white upper class voters moved to the left.

[Adam Griffin]

The gubernatorial candidate in 2014 was an absolute joke and won the nomination the same way that the 2012 senatorial nominee won (by being at the top of the ballot). When you have a problematic/non-existent Democratic candidate in most parts of the South on the level that TN saw in 2014 (and 2012), you generally see the biggest collapse in Democratic areas. Republican areas more so than Democratic areas will vote for even the worst of candidates without as big of a shift in their usual performances.

Davidson is the most Democratic county in the state and in 2018, the gubernatorial nominee was the mayor of the county. It makes complete sense that the county would rebound by more than any other (and while we're on it, it also makes sense that Knox would be #2, given it was Haslam's home base). As mentioned above, the recent trends we're seeing regarding suburban and college-educated voters moving Democratic also added to this effect.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Bill Lee got more votes than Haslam, too! Democrats simply did not turn out in 2014. Especially in a state without a competitive race, with "moderate" incumbents, in a GOP wave year, and with joke Some Dude candidates on the Democratic side.

Karl Dean and Phil Bredesen are well-known figures that ran actual campaigns in a Democratic wave year, so they were bound to improve greatly in the few Democratic areas still standing in Tennessee. It certainly helps both are from Nashville, too- that got Davidson numbers to skyrocket!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think the previous posters aren't getting the full story.  Davidson and Shelby Counties have been neck-and-neck for the most Democratic county in Tennessee in recent elections (and in 2014-SEN, when they backed opposite candidates, Davidson went R and Shelby went D).  In this election, Shelby was notably to the right of Davidson.  That does make sense in the gubernatorial race, as Dean was the Mayor of Nashville and Davidson County (they are legally one in the same) until 2015, but that does not explain the senatorial race.  Yes, Bredesen was also a Nashville mayor, but that is not really what he was remembered for relative to his time as governor.  And the difference between Davidson and Shelby Counties was double as large in the Senate race than the Governor's one.

That tells me that it was not really about location as much as style.  While Lee and Blackburn have similar positions on the issues, Blackburn is far more polarizing and controversial in her style and how she goes about politics.  That makes me think about why these counties vote Democratic.  Shelby County Democrats rely on the black vote for the vast majority of their votes.  Republicans win about three-quarters of white voters in Shelby County in most elections, which is slightly less than elsewhere in West Tennessee, but still usually enough to be a Republican County.

If white voters in Davidson County voted like white voters in Shelby County, Davidson County would be a Republican-leaning county.  The numbers calculated here before had the white vote in Davidson County almost an exact tie, which shows that there are a significant number of liberal whites and potentially a significant number of moderates and swing voters.  Those are the people who swung to vote for Bredesen after having previously voted Republican.  Many (but not all of them) stayed with Bill Lee in the gubernatorial election, with Dean only getting a more customary hometown bounce relative to Shelby County.

Plus, there is the fact that Nashville is having a lot more transplants come into the city than Memphis is having.  Some of those transplants want to live in Tennessee for its values, but others just want a trendy city with a big bar scene, and those people are adding to Nashville's Democratic margins.

TL/DR: Davidson County voters are a lot more elastic than Shelby County voters, with more people willing to swing with the direction of the parties and the national climate.