How many seats are the republicans going to gain in 2020?

[Woody]

The dems have hit their ceiling.

[Tartarus Sauce]

The dems have hit their ceiling.

Well now we know they haven’t. You just jinxed Republicans by making a confident assertion, which tend to have poor track records when uttered by you.

[Zaybay]

Republicans(circa 2006): The Republicans are going to make so many gains in 2008. The Democrats have completely hit their ceiling!

[South Dakota Democrat]

Republicans(circa 2006): The Republicans are going to make so many gains in 2008. The Democrats have completely hit their ceiling!

[Woody]

The dems have hit their ceiling.

Well now we know they haven’t. You just jinxed Republicans by making a confident assertion, which tend to have poor track records when uttered by you.

I successfully predicted a Scott/DeSantis win while everyone else was confident that Florida was Leaning D and that Nelson and the Obama wannabe was going to win by 3 points.

[lfromnj]

The dems have hit their ceiling.

Well now we know they haven’t. You just jinxed Republicans by making a confident assertion, which tend to have poor track records when uttered by you.

I successfully predicted a Scott/DeSantis win while everyone else was confident that Florida was Leaning D and that Nelson and the Obama wannabe was going to win by 3 points.

You also predicted reps hold the house and they lost it by almost  double the number of seats. Anyway just like we said with solid guessing ca 21st getting lucky as a hack does not mean you are a good predictor. Was it you who said that nate silver is a clown for saying ca 21st was lean d a day before to cox won?

[Zaybay]

The dems have hit their ceiling.

Well now we know they haven’t. You just jinxed Republicans by making a confident assertion, which tend to have poor track records when uttered by you.

I successfully predicted a Scott/DeSantis win while everyone else was confident that Florida was Leaning D and that Nelson and the Obama wannabe was going to win by 3 points.

Not surprising, since you also predicted that McSally, Morrisey, Rosendale, and Heller would win, the GOP would hold the house, and that Smith would be close in MN.

[Politician]

The dems have hit their ceiling.

Well now we know they haven’t. You just jinxed Republicans by making a confident assertion, which tend to have poor track records when uttered by you.

I successfully predicted a Scott/DeSantis win while everyone else was confident that Florida was Leaning D and that Nelson and the Obama wannabe was going to win by 3 points.

If you always guess "Republicans will win" you get it right half the time.

[Pericles]

I could see a range of Democratic seats going up to around 250 or down to 210-215. In a neutral environment Democrats probably barely retain their majority, however I personally wouldn't bet on 2020 as a neutral environment, and while people tend to set it as their default that doesn't mean their assessment is accurate. If 2020 is pro-D by high single digits, maybe D+10 or slightly higher at most, I'd see Democrats build on their gains by around 10-15 seats. Of course if Trump actually wins the popular vote then the House is probably lost(though voters may be receptive to a 'no blank cheque' argument, but a D+2 or D+3 House win may still lose due to gerrymandering). There's a lot of uncertainty and it is stupid to make iron-clad predictions before 2018 is over, before we even have a full picture of 2018, before the new Congress even takes office. I know it's cliche to say it's too early, but sometimes it is too early if you're going to make arguments that Democrats have hit their ceiling.

[Virginiá]

FWIW, it's very possible that North Carolina sees a new court-drawn map by 2020's elections. And Virginia theoretically could see a redraw done by Democrats if they get a trifecta in the 2019 elections, but I'm not so sure they would do it, given the time constraints and the potential lack of urgency given that they already control 7 / 4 seats. I wonder if such a redraw could make VA-05 somewhat more competitive while shoring up the rest of the newly-Democratic seats.

[Zaybay]

In 2020, both Parties can make gains, so I shall break it down by party. This is just a basic list.

For the Democrats: GA-07, IL-13, KY-06, MI-06, MN-01, MN-08, MO-02, MT-AL, NE-02, NC-09, OH-01, OH-12, PA-01, PA-10, PA-16, TX-21, TX-23, TX-24, TX-31, WA-03 (total of 20 seats)

For the Republicans: AZ-01, CA-48, FL-13, GA-06, IL-14, IA-01, IA-03, ME-02, MI-08, MN-07, NH-01, NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-02, NY-11, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22, OK-05, PA-08, SC-01, UT-04, VA-02, VA-07 (total of 25 seats)

[GMantis]

The dems have hit their ceiling.

Well now we know they haven’t. You just jinxed Republicans by making a confident assertion, which tend to have poor track records when uttered by you.

I successfully predicted a Scott/DeSantis win while everyone else was confident that Florida was Leaning D and that Nelson and the Obama wannabe was going to win by 3 points.

You also predicted that the Republicans would retain the House of Representatives and that Rosen, Sinema and Manchin would lose, which makes your arrogant confidence look ridiculous.

[Mr.Phips]

How much does Trump win by in 2020?  If we know that, well know the answer to your question.

[Xing]

Yeah, things can't get any worse for Republicans, just like things couldn't get any worse for them after 2006, or for Democrats after 2014.

It's way to early to be making confident predictions, but Republicans will almost certainly flip some seats (though not necessarily make net gains.) How many will depend on what kind of year it is. The Democrats also have several pick-up opportunities, so even Republicans do gain seats, the extent of their gains could be limited if Democrats flip seats like GA-07, NE-02, PA-01, and TX-23, among others, especially if we get a fairer NC map in 2020.

[wesmoorenerd]

[UncleSam]

Ya we don’t yet know what 2020 will bring us. I think it is very likely the presidential race will be close, and if it is Dems will lose a few seats in all likelihood. I’d say House is Lean D for now, we won’t really know more for about a year though.

[mgop]

18

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

18

No, the Dems aren't gonna lose 18, the swing States IA, ME, VA have freshmen incumbents in there, that our nominee will protect

[pops]

Republicans will flip UT-4, SC-1, OK-5, GA-6, TX-7, TX-32, MI-8, KS-3, NY-11, ME-2, and IA-3 will go to Republicans. Besides those, about 15 others seats could be GOP pickups.

211-227 Republicans up against 208-224 Democrats. Now that's interesting.

[Vosem]

Republicans(circa 2006): The Republicans are going to make so many gains in 2008. The Democrats have completely hit their ceiling!

Well, depends on whether he meant net or simply the total number. Republicans did gain 5 seats in 2008 (Democrats simply happened to gain 26 on the same night).

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

A negative number.

[Ronnie]

I'm guessing they'll gain 5 net seats or so.  I would be floored if they manage to take back the house unless Trump wins the popular vote, which certainly isn't out of the question, but will be hard considering he'll most likely be pummeled again in California.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A negative number.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cartwright, Fitzpatrick and King are probably gonna lose

[ag]

Not if Trump is losing.