If Barack Obama could run in 2020, what would the map look like?
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  If Barack Obama could run in 2020, what would the map look like?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: If Barack Obama could run in 2020, what would the map look like?  (Read 1863 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« on: December 02, 2018, 12:41:17 PM »
Suppose it were suddenly Constitutional for Barack Obama to run for a 3rd term for President in 2020, after having taken a term off from 2016-2020.

So we have Trump/Pence vs Obama/Biden...

What would the map look like?
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2018, 01:03:59 PM »
Obama clears 55% of the vote and 400 EVs. He's very popular right now.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2018, 01:15:26 PM »
Somewhere between FDR 1932 and Reagan 1980.

This should be a fair warning to Republicans about Donald Trump: if the Democrats have someone with the political skills of Reagan and the temperament of Eisenhower as their nominee, then the Democrat wins.  This applies just the same for a moderate or a progressive.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2018, 01:20:53 PM »
Obama 2008 minus indiana and ohio and most likely iowa and maine 2nd but ladd ga and az and possibly texas
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2018, 11:06:59 PM »
Quote from: Jalaketu West on December 02, 2018, 01:03:59 PM
Obama clears 55% of the vote and 400 EVs. He's very popular right now.

Right now, key word. Hillary was very popular in 2013-2014 too because she wasn't in politics. He wouldn't be anywhere near as popular (if popular at all) after a rough campaign, especially because Trump would have no problem stooping to levels that McCain/Romney didn't. There is no way in hell he (or anyone) would win 400 EVs against Trump, lol.
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President Phil Scott
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2018, 11:17:41 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on December 03, 2018, 11:06:59 PM
He wouldn't be anywhere near as popular (if popular at all) after a rough campaign. There is no way in hell he (or anyone) would win 400 EVs against Trump, lol.
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President Phil Scott
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« Reply #6 on: December 03, 2018, 11:21:54 PM »
Something similar, and akin-to this:
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538Electoral
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2018, 07:03:18 AM »
2012 if you make Ohio, Iowa and Maine's 2nd republican.

Obama 307, Trump 231.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2018, 08:15:16 AM »
If Dems duplicate an Obama landslide, 50-46, map looks like 2012. But, Booker can duplicate it, since Obama isnt running
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2018, 11:47:52 AM »

LOL, sip more kool aid.

Probably something like this:
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Orser67
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2018, 12:48:33 PM »
I think he'd be the stronger than any current Democratic candidate, though his favorable ratings would obviously decline once he became an active politician again (and Republicans start digging up various things that happened during his administration, e.g. Benghazi). My guess is that he'd win the popular vote by ~5 points.
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Shadows
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« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2018, 12:49:58 PM »
2012 Minus Ohio.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2018, 07:06:29 PM »
2008, minus Indiana while winning Arizona and Georgia.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2018, 07:13:05 PM »
« Edited: December 04, 2018, 07:17:20 PM by Old School Republican »
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: December 04, 2018, 07:13:54 PM »

I could see this, maybe with the addition of NE-2 also.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2018, 07:13:57 PM »

Imagine thinking he won't win Ne 2nd but wins IOwa
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2018, 07:16:58 PM »

lol forgot about NE-2


Add that to the total
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pppolitics
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« Reply #17 on: December 04, 2018, 10:44:18 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on December 04, 2018, 11:47:52 AM
LOL, sip more kool aid.

Probably something like this:
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pops
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« Reply #18 on: December 04, 2018, 10:55:05 PM »
This website may be the single worst group of pundits ever assembled. If Obama could run again, Trump would crush him. He ran his campaign literally attacking everything Obama did and cemented voters' view of Obama as an ineffective President by undoing a large part of Obama's policy agenda in two years. This actually might boost Trump's approval. Trump has been more effective on foreign, economic, and social policy. Obama's campaign would basically boil down to "less effective Trump but you get Obamacare". Obama would be such an uninspiring and dull candidate that I'm sure Jill Stein would run a solid liberal opposition to him. Ignoring that possibility, I don't see how Obama does better than this.

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pppolitics
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« Reply #19 on: December 04, 2018, 10:58:44 PM »
Quote from: katman46 on December 04, 2018, 10:55:05 PM
This website may be the single worst group of pundits ever assembled. If Obama could run again, Trump would crush him. He ran his campaign literally attacking everything Obama did and cemented voters' view of Obama as an ineffective President by undoing a large part of Obama's policy agenda in two years. This actually might boost Trump's approval. Trump has been more effective on foreign, economic, and social policy. Obama's campaign would basically boil down to "less effective Trump but you get Obamacare". Obama would be such an uninspiring and dull candidate that I'm sure Jill Stein would run a solid liberal opposition to him. Ignoring that possibility, I don't see how Obama does better than this.



Don't kid yourself.

Obama would easily win because Trump wouldn't be able to paint him as an out-of-touch bureaucrat that Trump was able to do with Hillary.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: December 04, 2018, 11:10:23 PM »


290-248
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SN2903
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« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2018, 11:46:52 PM »
Trump would beat Obama in a landslide. It would be clobbering. You gotta be kidding with these narrow Obama win predictions. Trump took away Obama's working class whites which he won largely because the GOP didn't work hard enough for those voters and didn't have the right messenger. Trump may be the most underrated politician in American history. Hillary had the Clinton name and close to 1 billion and he still beat her.

Obama campaigned for Hillary non stop and Trump soundly defeated her in the electoral college. 306 to 228 isn't close.

Trump would win 2016 + Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada against Obama.
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SN2903
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« Reply #22 on: December 04, 2018, 11:48:12 PM »
Quote from: katman46 on December 04, 2018, 10:55:05 PM
This website may be the single worst group of pundits ever assembled. If Obama could run again, Trump would crush him. He ran his campaign literally attacking everything Obama did and cemented voters' view of Obama as an ineffective President by undoing a large part of Obama's policy agenda in two years. This actually might boost Trump's approval. Trump has been more effective on foreign, economic, and social policy. Obama's campaign would basically boil down to "less effective Trump but you get Obamacare". Obama would be such an uninspiring and dull candidate that I'm sure Jill Stein would run a solid liberal opposition to him. Ignoring that possibility, I don't see how Obama does better than this.


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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #23 on: December 05, 2018, 06:00:59 AM »
Really in shock at these GOP posters....

Think about it, Hillary Clinton and all her baggage and unlikable personality came within a hair of beating Trump. But Obama couldn’t? Give me a break
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #24 on: December 05, 2018, 06:17:33 AM »
Quote from: SN2903 on December 04, 2018, 11:46:52 PM
Trump would beat Obama in a landslide. It would be clobbering. You gotta be kidding with these narrow Obama win predictions. Trump took away Obama's working class whites which he won largely because the GOP didn't work hard enough for those voters and didn't have the right messenger. Trump may be the most underrated politician in American history. Hillary had the Clinton name and close to 1 billion and he still beat her.

Obama campaigned for Hillary non stop and Trump soundly defeated her in the electoral college. 306 to 228 isn't close.

Trump would win 2016 + Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada against Obama.

Ok Eric, we got it. Now go back to the winery.
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